Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Arpeggio]

Noob question. Is there a way for one to somehow value this instrument for market vs intrinsic value.. Any ratio performance driver?Or something similar in a way to 3 financial statement forecasting model for equities or is TA the only way to ride?

[DanielT]

Noob question. Is there a way for one to somehow value this instrument for market vs intrinsic value.. Any ratio performance driver?Or something similar in a way to 3 financial statement forecasting model for equities or is TA the only way to ride?

No. (no need for a longer answer I suppose)

[NotLambchop]

More precisely:  No and no.

[oda.krell]

Noob question. Is there a way for one to somehow value this instrument for market vs intrinsic value.. Any ratio performance driver?Or something similar in a way to 3 financial statement forecasting model for equities or is TA the only way to ride?

I'd argue there's a number of fundamentals that are highly relevant, such as overall adoption / network size, or valuation floor through usage as medium of exchange for goods valued in USD. Problem is, those are (a) notoriously difficult to estimate precisely, and (b) even if you can estimate them more or less correctly, there never was a long term stable price that would define the "right" ratio of total valuation to adoption/network size, for example.

I personally think the "floor" defined by medium of exchange is the best you can do. By that metric alone, we're most likely still quite a bit overpriced, but that could either mean we drop further up to that floor or that floor isn't the only relevant metric. Probably the latter.

[calci]

The sun on the meadow is summery warm
The stag in the forest runs free
But gather together to greet the storm
Tomorrow belongs to me



The morning will come
When the world is mine
Tomorrow belongs
Tomorrow belongs
Tomorrow belongs to me!

Do you draw all those pictures yourself ? They look really nice. Too bad people consider you a troll.

[Erdogan]

Noob question. Is there a way for one to somehow value this instrument for market vs intrinsic value.. Any ratio performance driver?Or something similar in a way to 3 financial statement forecasting model for equities or is TA the only way to ride?

Absolutely not. There is no intrinsic value at all, that is, no use value, or, you can not consume a bitcoin leading to its destruction, and at the same time gain something useful. *)

Said otherwise, bitcoin has only money value, and in this regard it is the same as paper money.

It is at the same time pure money, and sound money. This has never existed before in history.

The money value is by definition speculative, all actors at all times have to decide for themselves what value (real world, use value) it is possible to exchange the bitcoins for in the future, far or near.

*) I know, you can prove that you have destroyed bitcoins to prove something...

[tarmi]

it will fall like a rock.

[Dump3er]

 

[Sitarow]

it will fall like a rock.

BTC/LTC yes as people rush to dump LTC for BTC before the BTC/USD rise.

[bassclef]

it will fall like a rock.

Better wake up the sellers then.

[YourMother]

Everything is going according to plan...

[Sitarow]

Everything is going according to plan...

Although we had some minor Deviation from the core model.

Sure Shrug off and ignore reality to suit your argument. Works every time... Or does it.

That period was the adoption / adaption of new tech from GPU to FPGA and halfing of reward and then ASIC and next halfing? I wonder if pumping trash coins in hopes of exchanging them for BTC and margin trading with cooked up BTC on "questionalble" exchange practices has anything to do with this drop?

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[tarmi]

it will fall like a rock.

Better wake up the sellers then.

smart sellers are already awake.

I feel sorry for all the bulls buying above 230.

and who cares about ltc? I sold that trash at 0.03.

[Deadstock]

What 2015 will bring us.

[oda.krell]

Noob question. Is there a way for one to somehow value this instrument for market vs intrinsic value.. Any ratio performance driver?Or something similar in a way to 3 financial statement forecasting model for equities or is TA the only way to ride?

Absolutely not. There is no intrinsic value at all, that is, no use value, or, you can not consume a bitcoin leading to its destruction, and at the same time gain something useful. *)

Said otherwise, bitcoin has only money value, and in this regard it is the same as paper money.

It is at the same time pure money, and sound money. This has never existed before in history.

The money value is by definition speculative, all actors at all times have to decide for themselves what value (real world, use value) it is possible to exchange the bitcoins for in the future, far or near.

*) I know, you can prove that you have destroyed bitcoins to prove something...

And how do you think that would be compatible with:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money

If the network proper is used to transfer a certain total value (measured in USD) over a certain time span, then given the money supply (total bitcoins in circulation, in this case) that transaction usage will provide a lower bound for the USD valuation per coin (assuming transactions are not instantaneous - which they aren't, even if the pure protocol part of it almost is, but there's slow humans involved as well )

I'd call that a pretty good candidate for "fundamental" valuation (even if the exact value of it is up for debate)

[Sitarow]

Some one is buying LTC with BTC...

Pro Tip buy and sell slowly as the "bots" will bring it LTC/BTC back to manageable targets.




1:22pm EST 2015/1/31

[techman]

OKCoin down? Bitcoinwisdom?

[esse83]

OKCoin down? Bitcoinwisdom?

It was down for more than an hour and the second it got back dumping started. Will be interesting to watch..

[Erdogan]

Noob question. Is there a way for one to somehow value this instrument for market vs intrinsic value.. Any ratio performance driver?Or something similar in a way to 3 financial statement forecasting model for equities or is TA the only way to ride?

Absolutely not. There is no intrinsic value at all, that is, no use value, or, you can not consume a bitcoin leading to its destruction, and at the same time gain something useful. *)

Said otherwise, bitcoin has only money value, and in this regard it is the same as paper money.

It is at the same time pure money, and sound money. This has never existed before in history.

The money value is by definition speculative, all actors at all times have to decide for themselves what value (real world, use value) it is possible to exchange the bitcoins for in the future, far or near.

*) I know, you can prove that you have destroyed bitcoins to prove something...

And how do you think that would be compatible with:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money

If the network proper is used to transfer a certain total value (measured in USD) over a certain time span, then given the money supply (total bitcoins in circulation, in this case) that transaction usage will provide a lower bound for the USD valuation per coin (assuming transactions are not instantaneous - which they aren't, even if the pure protocol part of it almost is, but there's slow humans involved as well )

I'd call that a pretty good candidate for "fundamental" valuation (even if the exact value of it is up for debate)

It is not compatible. I don't give a shit about that article, or the concept of velocity of money. I have written about that numerous times. Although it can be computed, giving a number, the parameter says exactly nothing of the value of money.