Damn! USD is running 0.06% daily on BFX. more than 10X the interest rate on BTC.
EDIT: now >0.08!
In the past 30 days, we have had a return of nearly 30%, and I calculate that to be approximately 1% per day, on average. The past month as been a good time to have been in BTC.
By my estimation, we're in a 45 day-ish run that has been reasonable enough to suggest that this isn't a pump and way different than the last few. That's quite some time and likely shouts that we're into something way apart from the last runs. No one can doubt that the halving is or will be having an effect in a large way now or in the short term. Moon? That's right I said it!
I'm gonna pee in you pool a little. If you investment goes down 50% and then goes up 50%, you still have only 75% of what you started with. If BTC was $100, then went down to $50, then back up to $75, that's what I mean.
All of this extra activity related to the Mavrodi pyramid is likely to increase the number of xactions on the network. If this leads to a backlog, no fee xactions will probably never get confirmed and fees will go up for anyone who needs their bitcoin transferred in a timely manner, possibly up substantially.
The power of exponential growth can be truly awesome. possibly faster. A ponzi scheme needs an ever-expanding pool of suckers to continue. A collapse is inevitable regardless of the block size outcome. This pump can last for a long time, but if the goddamn blocksize cap isn't raised (or preferably eliminated entirely), it's going to collapse when the network crashes which may be even before Mavrodi runs out of suckers.
Leveraged shorts are going up substantially on BFX, as well as longs. If I had to guess, there will be a short squeeze before a long squeeze. Liquidity providers have been caught unprepared for the short term demand of the ponzi. It cannot last but can go on for months. When this thing unwinds, we may find ourselves in a new Nash equilibrium below $200. The fallout will damage Bitcoin possibly even worse than Gox. Expect more bans and heavier regulation.
Yes, it does sound as if you are attempting to rain on our parade with your various doom and gloom scenarios.
Surely, there is nothing wrong with a little speculation, but your painting of various ways that this could play out seems to decend from the plausible to the incredible to the fantastical.
BjA, why can't you just go with the flow a little bit and get into the BTC moment, and at this time BTC is on an upward price trajectory, and transactions per second is NOT going to stop such trajectory
Accordingly, let's take this one step at a time.
We can cross the scalability questions later, if needed, and for NOW, CCMF is more appropriately in order...
See you at $350 or $400-ish and possibly at that time, we can revisit your doom and gloom ideas.
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