Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Harpua]

So I was initially skeptical about the amount of demand coming from the MMM Global ponzi. Now okcoin is addressing it directly:

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/3qd7cc/this_week_at_okcoin_china_update_mmm_ponzi/

No idea what % of this chinese led rise is attributable to it, but it is certainly cause for concern.

So essentially this price rise lately has been due to abunch of very wealthy Chinese ponzi schemers?  Also, is the base price of bitcoin usually related to bitstamps prices over anything else? Just curious.

As I understand it, the buying pressure would be from the ponzi users victims funding their accounts with MMM Global using bitcoin as a payment method. They are awarded extra money for spreading the ponzi through social media and referrals. They get big payouts as advertised as long as the ponzi is growing, when it stops growing, their payments halt, or become less reliable. The end game is the whole thing collapses and everybody is left holding the bag... except Mr Mavrodi.

It's certainly not a new phenomena. When I was first getting into bitcoin, there was a guy on these forums going by the name pirateat40. He ran a ponzi he called Bitcoin Savings and Trust. By giving out impossible interest rates at the beginning, he wound up in control of something like 200k+ bitcoins. Inevitably it collapsed and he ended up being identified, charged, and convicted.

The two are quite different in that pirateat40 was an amateur and this Mavrodi is basically the most professional scammer there is.

Many people around here trust the prices on bitstamp because it is quite old and doesn't offer leverage. But as you can see now, China is very important to the way things play out. We're over $300 in yuan equivalent and bitstamp/bitfinex are still hovering at $292.

So essentially the whole China market is a hoax and a forced bubble created by that guy?  I thought that there were very wealthy people over in China who are merging their funds into bitcoin because of an ill economy over there or something of the sort?

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[shmadz]

I thought that we were going to have a mini-rally on stamp to take the price to $295-$298-ish, but such mini-rally seems to have petered out in the $290 price spot.... or is that a false start?

We're bound to see some profit-taking, but I think it will pick up again.  Does anyone else see the curves in the 1h, 2h, 4h, and 6h charts?  Below 1h it looks like a line but it's still there.  There's the occasional deviation above and below but take those away and the data almost fits a simple growth model.  With a little imagination the curve even extends back before the dip in August, if you look at the 12h.  I don't know what to make of it.  Opinions?

I've been watching the 12 hour chart the past few weeks.

It's the sexiest thing I've seen since early 2013 when we finally broke and held above 10 dollars, and then it was of to the races.

*Actually, this might be even sexier, because it's just so methodical and relentless.

**btw, is tarmi still short?

[Harpua]

as i understand it one new victim buys btc and sends them to MMM which takes some of the BTC and sells them to pay the older victims

so afterall it should lead to revenue but not necessarily buy pressure

Wow, I couldn't really fathom trusting a guy from China who is known for being a scammer... but then again I guess that does make sense, because just recently I got suckered into losing some bitcoin in a ponzi over in the investor games subforum when I first learned about this place... So I can't say that those people are "dumb" necessarily for doing that, but like you said... victims...

It wasn't till after I started reading about scam after scam people do in that subforum, so ever since then I've stayed far away... should've looked more into it.  But everyones looking to make a quick and easy buck when the opportunity is presented to them.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[Cconvert2G36]

as i understand it one new victim buys btc and sends them to MMM which takes some of the BTC and sells them to pay the older victims

so afterall it should lead to revenue but not necessarily buy pressure

Wow, I couldn't really fathom trusting a guy from China who is known for being a scammer... but then again I guess that does make sense, because just recently I got suckered into losing some bitcoin in a ponzi over in the investor games subforum when I first learned about this place... So I can't say that those people are "dumb" necessarily for doing that, but like you said... victims...

It wasn't till after I started reading about scam after scam people do in that subforum, so ever since then I've stayed far away... should've looked more into it.  But everyones looking to make a quick and easy buck when the opportunity is presented to them.

He's not chinese, and this new scam is being run simultaneously in a bunch of different countries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Mavrodi

Also as I said before:

So I was initially skeptical about the amount of demand coming from the MMM Global ponzi. Now okcoin is addressing it directly:

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/3qd7cc/this_week_at_okcoin_china_update_mmm_ponzi/

No idea what % of this chinese led rise is attributable to it, but it is certainly cause for concern.

[tarmi]

chinese devaluation of yuan is already priced in.

no choo choo for you bulls, unless you are on mETH.

[wutizurkwest]

I thought that we were going to have a mini-rally on stamp to take the price to $295-$298-ish, but such mini-rally seems to have petered out in the $290 price spot.... or is that a false start?

We're bound to see some profit-taking, but I think it will pick up again.  Does anyone else see the curves in the 1h, 2h, 4h, and 6h charts?  Below 1h it looks like a line but it's still there.  There's the occasional deviation above and below but take those away and the data almost fits a simple growth model.  With a little imagination the curve even extends back before the dip in August, if you look at the 12h.  I don't know what to make of it.  Opinions?

I've been watching the 12 hour chart the past few weeks.

It's the sexiest thing I've seen since early 2013 when we finally broke and held above 10 dollars, and then it was of to the races.

*Actually, this might be even sexier, because it's just so methodical and relentless.

**btw, is tarmi still short?

That's why I come here...all the wonderful people saying exactly what I want to hear.

If this is the next bubble forming, judging from the log charts, we could hit $1000 again by Xmas.  

That's what I want.  You hear me Santa?!?  I've been good this year, dammit.

[chennan]

I thought that we were going to have a mini-rally on stamp to take the price to $295-$298-ish, but such mini-rally seems to have petered out in the $290 price spot.... or is that a false start?

We're bound to see some profit-taking, but I think it will pick up again.  Does anyone else see the curves in the 1h, 2h, 4h, and 6h charts?  Below 1h it looks like a line but it's still there.  There's the occasional deviation above and below but take those away and the data almost fits a simple growth model.  With a little imagination the curve even extends back before the dip in August, if you look at the 12h.  I don't know what to make of it.  Opinions?

I've been watching the 12 hour chart the past few weeks.

It's the sexiest thing I've seen since early 2013 when we finally broke and held above 10 dollars, and then it was of to the races.

*Actually, this might be even sexier, because it's just so methodical and relentless.

**btw, is tarmi still short?

That's why I come here...all the wonderful people saying exactly what I want to hear.

If this is the next bubble forming, judging from the log charts, we could hit $1000 again by Xmas. 

That's what I want.  You hear me Santa?!?  I've been good this year, dammit.

Now why the hell would you want another bubble to form? There is just too much evidence of basic economics that this is not healthy for the bitcoin economy because there is always correction in the market, and with the bitcoin market it goes full retard with over correctness and will bury us below $200 again... slow and steady is always the most viable option for anyone who is truly into cryptocurrency being, well, a fucking currency rather than some get quick rich ponzi scheme.

[solid12345]

Now why the hell would you want another bubble to form? There is just too much evidence of basic economics that this is not healthy for the bitcoin economy because there is always correction in the market, and with the bitcoin market it goes full retard with over correctness and will bury us below $200 again... slow and steady is always the most viable option for anyone who is truly into cryptocurrency being, well, a fucking currency rather than some get quick rich ponzi scheme.

Well it's sort of hard to apply traditional economic theory to something never before seen in history. That being said no one complained that the US Dollar ballooned in value too quickly after WW2, if something has value in the free market it will realize its true price faster than you think.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[shmadz]

That's why I come here...all the wonderful people saying exactly what I want to hear.

Aww, you're so kind.

I missed you too lambsie!

[wutizurkwest]

Now why the hell would you want another bubble to form? There is just too much evidence of basic economics that this is not healthy for the bitcoin economy because there is always correction in the market, and with the bitcoin market it goes full retard with over correctness and will bury us below $200 again... slow and steady is always the most viable option for anyone who is truly into cryptocurrency being, well, a fucking currency rather than some get quick rich ponzi scheme.

Well it's sort of hard to apply traditional economic theory to something never before seen in history. That being said no one complained that the US Dollar ballooned in value too quickly after WW2, if something has value in the free market it will realize its true price faster than you think.

You nailed it.  We've been in a bear market for what, 20 months?  I'm inclined to think it's undervalued and we're due for a significant market correction.  And that's if nothing outside the Bitcoin ecosystem changes...any number of things will skyrocket the price past $10k.  Some of those are so likely it's not a question of if, but when.

[wutizurkwest]

That's why I come here...all the wonderful people saying exactly what I want to hear.

Aww, you're so kind.

I missed you too lambsie!

Sorry, not lambsie.  I seem to recall him/her, but it's been a year since I last lurked here.

Wait, wasn't there something about a sacrificial lamb a few pages back?

[dropt]

chinese devaluation of yuan is already priced in.

no choo choo for you bulls, unless you are on mETH.

Says the guy who's underwater on the bulk of his shorts.

Assuming you actually trade the way you talk, which I highly doubt.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[Dilla]

chinese devaluation of yuan is already priced in.

no choo choo for you bulls, unless you are on mETH.

Please explain?
How can you price in an undetermined amount of money adding to the market cap?

[Cconvert2G36]

chinese devaluation of yuan is already priced in.

no choo choo for you bulls, unless you are on mETH.

Please explain?
How can you price in an undetermined amount of money adding to the market cap?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-25/yuan-bears-forecasting-devaluation-test-offshore-market-nerves

As the price of yuan vs USD changes, so must the relative price in BTC.

[JayJuanGee]

I thought that we were going to have a mini-rally on stamp to take the price to $295-$298-ish, but such mini-rally seems to have petered out in the $290 price spot.... or is that a false start?

We're bound to see some profit-taking, but I think it will pick up again.  Does anyone else see the curves in the 1h, 2h, 4h, and 6h charts?  Below 1h it looks like a line but it's still there.  There's the occasional deviation above and below but take those away and the data almost fits a simple growth model.  With a little imagination the curve even extends back before the dip in August, if you look at the 12h.  I don't know what to make of it.  Opinions?

I've been watching the 12 hour chart the past few weeks.

It's the sexiest thing I've seen since early 2013 when we finally broke and held above 10 dollars, and then it was of to the races.

*Actually, this might be even sexier, because it's just so methodical and relentless.

**btw, is tarmi still short?

That's why I come here...all the wonderful people saying exactly what I want to hear.

If this is the next bubble forming, judging from the log charts, we could hit $1000 again by Xmas. 

That's what I want.  You hear me Santa?!?  I've been good this year, dammit.

Now why the hell would you want another bubble to form? There is just too much evidence of basic economics that this is not healthy for the bitcoin economy because there is always correction in the market, and with the bitcoin market it goes full retard with over correctness and will bury us below $200 again... slow and steady is always the most viable option for anyone who is truly into cryptocurrency being, well, a fucking currency rather than some get quick rich ponzi scheme.

It seems to be inevitable that bitcoin is going to suffer some more of these bubble periods because it is just too small at the moment.  Quasi-currency status is much further into the future, and likely going to need a market cap in the $100Billion plus categories, and even that kind of $100 Billion plus is really small potatoes in the whole scheme of things.  So whether some posters are wishing for a bubble or NOT one two or three more bubbles seem likely to be in the cards for the next approximately 5-10 years of bitcoin.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

That's why I come here...all the wonderful people saying exactly what I want to hear.

Aww, you're so kind.

I missed you too lambsie!

That guy is NOT lambsie.

hahahahaha   NOT every newbie poster is lambsie.  fuck.