Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

The MtGOX bankruptcy trustee has been publishing his status reports, including expenses, at www.mtgox.com.  The PDF documents are in Japanese, but there is usually a good (but non-official) English translation at the end of each document. 

I would guess that he and the various experts will be quite happy with their fees, but even so the majority of the money and bitcoins that are left will be distributed.

As others have pointed out, the total claims filed by the victims far exceed what MtGOX ever held.  The original deadline for validating the claims has been postponed; the new date is somewhere in that website.

The trustee is still trying to recover money that Mark loaned to himself and his other companies.  He has requested their forced bankruptcy.  I don't expect there will be much juice left in those lemons, though.

The ~200'000 BTC are still in his possession. AFAIK he has not decided yet whether they will be distributed as BTC, or auctioned and distributed as JPY. (I suppose that Mark's $40'000 bed will be auctioned too, eventually.)

I think that the Enron bankruptcy was *much* more complicated than MtGOX's, because the company was much bigger and more diversified, with dozens of subsidiaries (and complicated fraudulent businesses between them).  So I expect that the legal and consultant fees for MtGOX will be a lot less than the 700 M$ of Enron's bankruptcy.

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[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[medialab101]

10K coins added to the ask wall on Finex.

[Cconvert2G36]

10K coins added to the ask wall on Finex.

A new bearwhale emerges.

[dropt]

10K coins added to the ask wall on Finex.

A new bearwhale emerges.

Mr. Accumulator wants your coins, but he wants them for <300.  I bet if someone took a run at that ask wall it'd be pulled mighty quickly.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I will concede that paying of various fees (such as legal fees) could potentially cause scenarios in which the coins could get dumped in fairly large volumes - it is by NO means certain, and at this time, likely there is NO real utility to speculate in grandiose ways regarding what exactly is going to happen to those coins when they are returned to private hands. 

investing/speculating is like gambling. You calculate odds and you asses risk.  If a card had a 35% chance of winning you $100, then you pay up to $35 to see that next card and no more.

if there is a >50% chance that >50% of 200,000 coins get dumped on a market, then  we can price that in as a minimum of 14 days worth of mined coins extra supply.  It's like delaying the halving for a month.

I agree with your various illustrations regarding the calculation of expected future value, and even though these are potentially objectively seen numbers, each of us is likely going to arrive at different calculations regarding how probable we consider an event to be and which factors are most relevant in calculating probable future events (sometimes we are wrong in probabilities and in terms of choosing relevant events) and even how much risk we are willing to take in terms of factors such as the quantity of our assets and how diversified is our current investment position.. and whether we have sufficiently leveraging of our assets to be prepared for changes in relative value of assets in various directions that we expect them to go as weighted against each other.

And, if we do NOT want to be continuously calculating these concepts, we come to ball park approximations in order to NOT be shifting our bets and our assets on an ongoing basis.

[JayJuanGee]

I will concede that paying of various fees (such as legal fees) could potentially cause scenarios in which the coins could get dumped in fairly large volumes - it is by NO means certain, and at this time, likely there is NO real utility to speculate in grandiose ways regarding what exactly is going to happen to those coins when they are returned to private hands. 

Heaven help us if we dare to speculate on things related to the value of bitcoin... in the confines of these fora. 

That's a smart ass response.

Each of us knows that there is nothing wrong with speculation when there is some reasonable basis for the speculation or even if a poster were to describe how s/he arrives at such assertion(s).

I will endeavor NOT to reply in kind to your insult.

You've recently discovered the virtue of brevity, and for that, I'm thankful. That said, are you to decide what is reasonable? No? Could you suggest someone? I'm just speculating, and have had some responses, kinda the goal here.

Yes.  NO problem. 

Certainly it is good for us to share ideas in this thread and to have a dialogue, and in that regard, I had NOT intended my earlier comments to be either insulting to you or to discourage the posting of ideas and discussions (from you or anyone else) concerning the various factors that each us finds relevant about potential price movements in bitcoinlandia.   

[Cconvert2G36]

10K coins added to the ask wall on Finex.

A new bearwhale emerges.

Mr. Accumulator wants your coins, but he wants them for <300.  I bet if someone took a run at that ask wall it'd be pulled mighty quickly.

And like a shadow in the night... he's gone.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[QuestionAuthority]

That's it for me. I sold all with a $5 profit per coin. I'm not going to lose money and I'm not going to sit on them for another year watching the price bounce between $200 and $300. I want to see the price go beyond $350 before I buy again. I have better things to do with my money.

[Cconvert2G36]

That's it for me. I sold all with a $5 profit per coin. I'm not going to lose money and I'm not going to sit on them for another year watching the price bounce between $200 and $300. I want to see the price go beyond $350 before I buy again. I have better things to do with my money.

Good to see some speculators leaving the arena.  Hope that more of like will follow.   

What a retarded statement.

Hopefully you will still drop us some posts even without being "in", QA. You have the best sig campaign on the forum.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[pleaseexplainagain]

That's it for me. I sold all with a $5 profit per coin. I'm not going to lose money and I'm not going to sit on them for another year watching the price bounce between $200 and $300. I want to see the price go beyond $350 before I buy again. I have better things to do with my money.

I think that is a smart move. unfortunately my av buy price is way above $300 so am holding on in the small chance of not losing so much when I do sell soemm of bitcoins  - but if you can get out now with a profit I think sensible as I consider the price cannot get above say $350 any time soon ( ie as in 2-3 years at least and that is being optimistic)

the problem is no new demand and the winklevoss twin nor halving etc are not doing anything to offset that fact.

so the price is going to languish in the $200-$300 for some time (and may well drop for a period under $200).

[HI-TEC99]

If this is the start of a new downtrend then the 11 (3.5%) minority of voters in the poll who said 290 would be the top were right if you go by Bitstamp prices, and not China prices. I knew the option with the lowest number of votes frequently is the right option, but I thought it would be over 300 by now regardless.

[ghandi]

Looking at the 12hr chart, i don't see any downtrend. Chickens!

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[Fatman3001]

Ok, I'm back.

CCMF!!!

[mymenace]

Coin

Explanation

AUS Price

Bitcoin:
$401.17
Litecoin:
$4.42


1 Australian Dollar equals
0.73 US Dollar

[Searing]

Ok, I'm back.

CCMF!!!

You forgot the 'obligatory' Train!



Damn! That is one 'lame' Train

(Hey going with the 'I think I can, I think I can, theme here from my childhood..don't kill the dream)