Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[toknormal]

Why I do believe we will see in the coming decade or 15 years a market cap of $1T, what do you think ?

I see $11B is really nothing and it's just a warm up.

About 2 years ago I really thought Bitcoin would be superseded. I hedged a bit a bit into Peercoin because I thought that would overtake it due to its optimised design for "trunk capacity" i.e. the way the fees and the algo were structured were specifically to drive it into the role of a "financial backbone" as its designer had envisaged a multi-layered financial cryptocurrency system well before the lightning network even got started.

Then came the flotilla of "alts", none of which even made a dent in Bitcoin's marketcap despite being much more advanced technologically in many areas.

So then I realised that monetary roles and technological roles are very distinct priorities and in many ways in conflict and that was why Bitcoin had succeeded against expectations when all these alts arrived. Events since then have only confirmed this view. Even Ethereum, for all its technological vastness, hasn't done much relatively speaking.

Although I still believe we'll see a diversity of assets (I hold about 60% BTC, 40% alts) I think it's clear that Bitcoin is only consolidating its position, especially having fought off all that competition without even having had any of the large infrastructure developments that are now coming its way. That probably also goes for the few top alt coins that have shared much of the journey.

To me it's now a no brainer. The banks are bluffing with their "blockchain" nonsense. They've no use for a blockchain and haven't got the hashpower anyway. Once they start to discover that there'll come a tipping point (maybe already here) where eveyone switches from ignoring/attacking bitcoin to scrambling to be the first to support it with new banking business models along the lines of the Coinbase one.

As far as ultimate marketcap goes - think of a number. It's only going to get harder for anything to compete as time goes on. The hashrate that the bitcoin network now has is phenomenal. It even needs its own unit of measurement it's so huge. (Go on coinwarz and do a page find, Command-F, for "PH/S" and see how many hits you get    )

Most people in industry still don't get it. It's a sleeping elephant just as the world wide web was. Nobody really remembers the point at which email became indispensable or when they stopped using a high street travel agent to book a flight. It was like the tide coming in - a slow, subtle but unstoppable change. I suspect the coming revolution will be a bit more volatile though because the world financial system is just so flakey right now that there's bound to be a few avalanches here and there along the way.

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[Fakhoury]

Why I do believe we will see in the coming decade or 15 years a market cap of $1T, what do you think ?

I see $11B is really nothing and it's just a warm up.

About 2 years ago I really thought Bitcoin would be superseded. I hedged a bit a bit into Peercoin because I thought that would overtake it due to its optimised design for "trunk capacity" i.e. the way the fees and the algo were structured were specifically to drive it into the role of a "financial backbone" as its designer had envisaged a multi-layered financial cryptocurrency system well before the lightning network even got started.

Then came the flotilla of "alts", none of which even made a dent in Bitcoin's marketcap despite being much more advanced technologically in many areas.

So then I realised that monetary roles and technological roles are very distinct priorities and in many ways in conflict and that was why Bitcoin had succeeded against expectations when all these alts arrived. Events since then have only confirmed this view. Even Ethereum, for all its technological vastness, hasn't done much relatively speaking.

Although I still believe we'll see a diversity of assets (I hold about 60% BTC, 40% alts) I think it's clear that Bitcoin is only consolidating its position, especially having fought off all that competition without even having had any of the large infrastructure developments that are now coming its way. That probably also goes for the few top alt coins that have shared much of the journey.

To me it's now a no brainer. The banks are bluffing with their "blockchain" nonsense. They've no use for a blockchain and haven't got the hashpower anyway. Once they start to discover that there'll come a tipping point (maybe already here) where eveyone switches from ignoring/attacking bitcoin to scrambling to be the first to support it with new banking business models along the lines of the Coinbase one.

As far as ultimate marketcap goes - think of a number. It's only going to get harder for anyone to compete as time goes on. The hashrate that the bitcoin network now has is phenomenal. It even needs its own unit of measurement it's so huge. (Go on coinwarz and do a page find, Command-F, for "PH/S" and see how many hits you get    )

Most people in industry still don't get it. It's a sleeping elephant just as the world wide web was. Nobody really remembers the point at which email became indispensable or when they stopped using a high street travel agent to book a flight. It was like the tide coming in - a slow, subtle but unstoppable change. I suspect the coming revolution will be a bit more volatile though because the world financial system is just so flakey right now that there's bound to be a few avalanches here and there along the way.

Thanks for your insightful reply my friend

Some of China banks now refuses to wire money outside of the country, some banks already started to shut down and some is on the way of bankruptcy.

Sooner or later, Banks will embrace us, I recall that some banks already did, but when this moment come where the majority starts embracing, we will be reaching mars, not even moon.

Also, banks who wants to create their own coins, will miserably fall as their private SQL database

If don't mind, I want to stress on numbers, why I feel and foresee that we will see $1T in the coming 10 - 15 years, and the most of the market cap will be from Chinese gold and silver bugs, investors and such.

Lets think about it in another way as "Zimmah" did here.

What do you think ?

if it turns out as predicted, $50000 by march 2017 would be plausible.

That would require a mountain of real people to suddenly throw vast amounts of their hard earned money at something almost all of them still know zero about.

Theories and fractals and friends are all well and good but don't play along with the real world.

What da f thats to much prediction for you men,  bitcoins price didnt really reach for that price as you mentioned and I see the biggest price reached by bitcoin in history is at 1k$ and follows by big crash hope it will not happen for this time, but for predicting bitcoin will reach to 50000 thats a lot of zero for predictinng and very imposible to happen and manny money tO invest so the price will go to that,  but the nearly prediction price is @ 700-800$ mark by that it can be decent and true to come prediction and we can say safe zone for bitcoin to avoid big crash

it will happen.

huge rallies cause the price to overshoot and then a large correction happens, but it will always end up being higher in the end.

what you fail to understand is that bitcoin is LIMITED and therefore the only thing that actually is impossible is for the price to stay this low.

assuming bitcoin will be adopted by more users it means the price will have to go up. And not by just $50 either.

More like by 100x at least.

Even $700~$800 is way too low.

Next rally will go to ~$3000 at least, but more likely $5000

If there is one after that (most likely in 2017) expect to see 5 digits (40~50k)

it's inevitable.

Imagine 30 million people (and 30 million people is not a lot on over 7 billion people worthwide) all want to buy 1 bitcoin for $500. We won't have enough bitcoin. So they will have to bid higher and higher. The 'poorer' people will have to live with less than 1 bitcoin.

I can not stress this enough:

the average amount of bitcoin people will have is less than 0.003 bitcoin

so therefore, 1 bitcoin has to be an INSANE amount of money. and $50k is just the start. f you think otherwise, basically you're saying bitcoin will never be used by more than ~10 million people. And that's an even more insane prediction than the ones i am making.

Just because you lack logic and mathematical skills doesn't make me delusional. I base my predication on math and logic, you base your predictions on what your 'feelings' tell you is 'right'

[dumbfbrankings]

Why I do believe we will see in the coming decade or 15 years a market cap of $1T, what do you think ?

I see $11B is really nothing and it's just a warm up.

About 2 years ago I really thought Bitcoin would be superseded. I hedged a bit a bit into Peercoin because I thought that would overtake it due to its optimised design for "trunk capacity" i.e. the way the fees and the algo were structured were specifically to drive it into the role of a "financial backbone" as its designer had envisaged a multi-layered financial cryptocurrency system well before the lightning network even got started.

Then came the flotilla of "alts", none of which even made a dent in Bitcoin's marketcap despite being much more advanced technologically in many areas.

So then I realised that monetary roles and technological roles are very distinct priorities and in many ways in conflict and that was why Bitcoin had succeeded against expectations when all these alts arrived. Events since then have only confirmed this view. Even Ethereum, for all its technological vastness, hasn't done much relatively speaking.

Although I still believe we'll see a diversity of assets (I hold about 60% BTC, 40% alts) I think it's clear that Bitcoin is only consolidating its position, especially having fought off all that competition without even having had any of the large infrastructure developments that are now coming its way. That probably also goes for the few top alt coins that have shared much of the journey.

To me it's now a no brainer. The banks are bluffing with their "blockchain" nonsense. They've no use for a blockchain and haven't got the hashpower anyway. Once they start to discover that there'll come a tipping point (maybe already here) where eveyone switches from ignoring/attacking bitcoin to scrambling to be the first to support it with new banking business models along the lines of the Coinbase one.

As far as ultimate marketcap goes - think of a number. It's only going to get harder for anyone to compete as time goes on. The hashrate that the bitcoin network now has is phenomenal. It even needs its own unit of measurement it's so huge. (Go on coinwarz and do a page find, Command-F, for "PH/S" and see how many hits you get    )

Most people in industry still don't get it. It's a sleeping elephant just as the world wide web was. Nobody really remembers the point at which email became indispensable or when they stopped using a high street travel agent to book a flight. It was like the tide coming in - a slow, subtle but unstoppable change. I suspect the coming revolution will be a bit more volatile though because the world financial system is just so flakey right now that there's bound to be a few avalanches here and there along the way.

Really? It's captured almost 13% of Bitcoin's market cap in less than a year.

Mining it is really profitable, and accessible to the avg user, unlike the megawatt warehouses of the decentralized BTC.

To add insult to injury... it's rallying harder than the coin that is actually having its inflation halved:



The mindset that BTC's inertia is insurmountable is a dangerous one. Especially when its dev team is committed to crippling it in favor of as-yet-non-existent payment channels (channels that have huge incentives for centralization into monolithic hubs btw).

Pffffft, what am I thinking? Let's moon this biotch!  

[toknormal]

Lets think about it in another way as "Zimmah" did here.

What do you think ?

I agree with the principal of that commentary but in practice the "limited supply" aspect is not quite true because Bitcoin will be levered. Any limited supply asset base is always levered in order to meet liquidity requirements in its derivative markets. If the banks don't do it, the free market will in order to achieve price stability in certain trading sectors.

Despite that, the fact that Bitcoin is an electronic "bearer" token means it is more accessible to the ordinary holder so its easier for people who actually want to hold the base asset to do so.

[adamstgBit]

ok let talk about 900
so after 900 comes 1000
hmmm interesting.

[mogrith]

In some way a full 1.00000000 BTC will be like a 400Troy oz gold bar.  A way to move large quantities of wealth but not a normal day to day use quantity.

1 400 oz bar >$525,000

[ImI]

ok let talk about 900
so after 900 comes 1000
hmmm interesting.

question will be what happens at 1150? ath should be a decent resistance.

[thrax]

Lets think about it in another way as "Zimmah" did here.

What do you think ?

I agree with the principal of that commentary but in practice the "limited supply" aspect is not quite true because Bitcoin will be levered. Any limited supply asset base is always levered in order to meet liquidity requirements in its derivative markets. If the banks don't do it, the free market will in order to achieve price stability in certain trading sectors.

Despite that, the fact that Bitcoin is an electronic "bearer" token means it is more accessible to the ordinary holder so its easier for people who actually want to hold the base asset to do so.

I have never experienced an all time high rally before, and half the forum members probably joined after the last one. The bullish emotions sweeping through the forum are infectious and could become the biggest driving factor for the price. Zimmah's prediction could be made a reality by those emotions despite any other factors.

[gentlemand]

question will be what happens at 1150? ath should be a decent resistance.

The ATH was so long ago it feels a little like ancient history now. Perhaps the market will simply shit all over it on its way north just to prove that we're in a juicy new era.

[toknormal]

I have never experienced an all time high rally before, and half the forum members probably joined after the last one. The bullish emotions sweeping through the forum are infectious and could become the biggest driving factor for the price. Zimmah's prediction could be made a reality by those emotions despite any other factors.

I experienced the last one in 2013 - every last day of it, including the grizzly descent back to $200.

You'd be surprised how smart many traders are who actually drive the price. They just go by charts - nothing else and if it went up then it's coming down, no buts about it and no matter what the "fundamentals" say. I was amazed at how all kinds of bullish events were happening - Overstock started accepting bitcoin, new Chinese exchanges, Bitpay arrived, talk of ETFs you name it. Yet the price kept plummeting. It was perplexing to watch.

The only thing you can be sure of is there's no amount of reality that can out-do your imagination. So if you imagine some future, take 5% of that and you might be in the ballpark cos hype won't do it - ever  

[gentlemand]

I have never experienced an all time high rally before, and half the forum members probably joined after the last one.

I was there for it all too. I bought some coins a few months before and then started paying more attention when they went batty. As I hadn't really been checking the movements in the meantime I thought $100 movement per day might be par for the course. I was proven ever so slightly wrong. It's a weird feeling to see something approximating it again.

[yefi]

You do know you can find on YouTube how you can melt a frying pan and make a gun out of it ... or melt some copper/bronze coins/wires to make some bullet shells.. and also the recipe for the inside content of the explosive power that goes inside it you can find.

Hm, sounds like a good way for noobs to blow their hands off.

[GreekGeek]

ok let talk about 900
so after 900 comes 1000
hmmm interesting.

question will be what happens at 1150? ath should be a decent resistance.

Mark my words:
it will go through 1150 like a knife in butter 

[JayJuanGee]

Really? It's captured almost 13% of Bitcoin's market cap in less than a year.

Mining it is really profitable, and accessible to the avg user, unlike the megawatt warehouses of the decentralized BTC.

To add insult to injury... it's rallying harder than the coin that is actually having its inflation halved:



The mindset that BTC's inertia is insurmountable is a dangerous one. Especially when its dev team is committed to crippling it in favor of as-yet-non-existent payment channels (channels that have huge incentives for centralization into monolithic hubs btw).

Pffffft, what am I thinking? Let's moon this biotch!  

You are just on and on about Ethereum, and it seems that you don't even believe the bullcrap that you are spouting.

Who the fuck knows about short term price directions of ETH?  I'm sure they can continue to pump Ethereum for a while, but there is just a lack of fundamentals - at least in respect to the decentralized aspect of it, and at some point it is going to have to come cascading down. 

Yeah, they can keep pumping it, but when there is a lack of some of the fundamentals, then sooner or later people are going to recognize the lack of there, there. 

[yefi]

question will be what happens at 1150? ath should be a decent resistance.

Mark my words:
it will go through 1150 like a knife in butter 

700s is the pivotal resistance imho. If we can break that the rest will break itself so to speak.

[pariahbit]

You are just on and on about Ethereum, and it seems that you don't even believe the bullcrap that you are spouting.

Who the fuck knows about short term price directions of ETH?  I'm sure they can continue to pump Ethereum for a while, but there is just a lack of fundamentals - at least in respect to the decentralized aspect of it, and at some point it is going to have to come cascading down.  

Yeah, they can keep pumping it, but when there is a lack of some of the fundamentals, then sooner or later people are going to recognize the lack of there, there.  

Lol @ unironically trotting out fundamentals while invested in beetcoin.
Number of non-criminal unique bitcoin use cases that aren't contrived bullshit: ZERO.
Number of non-criminal bitcoin companies that have made money for their investors: ZERO.
Number of non-criminal bitcoin companies that went belly up/simply ran away with the money: staggering.
What fundamentals are we talking about? A bunch of guys in China running casinos exchanges while their buddies turn electricity into waste heat?

At least ETH isn't associated with child porn/failed drug dealers & extortionists, has a better backstory & is profitable. Like so:

http://s31.postimg.org/vn5dm5lqj/Capture.gif

>and at some point it is going to have to come cascading down ... then sooner or later people are going to recognize the lack of there, there.  
Out of the mouth of babes and sucklings thou hast perfected praise

[DaRude]

...etherpoop shill...

feeding and quoting etherpoop troll

If you feel the need to feed the troll at least take the etherpoop shilling out of your own quotes, or go discuss it in the alts section

[yefi]

5 months on...

14th Jan 2016: $429.74

Bitcoin... has failed	The death spiral begins	Bitcoin has no future
Bitcoin has entered [...] a crisis of the core system, the block chain itself.	the long term trend should probably be downwards.	the network is on the brink of technical collapse.

14th June 2016: $697.47

...

[pariahbit]

I can not stress this enough:

the average amount of bitcoin people will have is less than 0.003 bitcoin

The average amount of bitcoin people DO have is less than is less than 0.003 bitcoin. Right now. Hazzah!
And the average amount of Dash people will have is less than 0.003.
And the average amount of BBQ coin people will have is less than 0.003.
And the average amount of [most_worthless_shitcoins] people will have is less than 0.003.

Why are people impressed by this? Does it imply that all shitcoins are astoundingly undervalued? Should I issue an alt with just 2 million max coins, making it x10 as valuable as BTC?

[sirohige]

Question:    On June 30th price will be
<1000
<800
<700
<600
<520
<480
<450
<420
   

hello OP can you add > 1000
i think people believe bitcoin can reach $1000 above