Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

JJG are you also saying that BTC price depends on the hashrate (production costs) and not the other way around???

I doubt that any of us can paint any kind of accurate formulation of bitcoin prices by simplifying that relationship to  hashrate, but instead BTC prices are likely an ongoing search in terms of mining power and overall market demand and speculation. 

The hashrate will adjust accordingly in ongoing attempts at price discovery, but then the hashrate will also speculate about future price with some investors being better suited to withstand long periods of being incorrect.

 We have speculation on many ends that is not necessarily in equilibrium but in a state of ongoing price discovery and is adjusting all the time with some folks being wrong about their bets and then the market reacting and then individuals and/or companies going into areas based on perceived needs and based on the actions and inactions of others whether that be their mining investments (and hashing power) or other market developments, speculations and demand pressures.

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[TERA]

IMO the hashrate has absolutely no effect on the price and the price would actually be more bullish if ASICs (or GPUs) didn't exist and the network was evenly distributed amongst tens of thousands of laptops doing 10mhz each.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

What is ETH actually for? What's so good about it?

I no nothing about it apart from its premined right? And there is no cap.

What are the good points?

It can do everything that bitcoin can, plus can scale and do stuff that bitcoiners used to talk about, like smart contracts.
Oh, did I mention it's not a SHA256 coin, meaning it's not controlled by the Chinese exchange/mining cartel?

But, to be honest, that's just a backstory too, like people totally using BTC because it's simpler than using a CC. In truth, it's just a really profitable coin with good volume

Mind to give a proof about eth can scale ?

Bitcoin is a supersecure blockchain, other thinks can be bulid on top of it, e.g. rootstock or lightning .  No need for fancy feutures. Just a good secure protocol.

And if bitcoin enters the next hyper bubble the red candle in your eth chart will be EPIC.

Well, the basic idea was, to make a decentralized network computer executing smart-contracts (not especially for a currency function, more like automated "transactions", colour tokens (like open company shares), crowdfunding (like this DAO monstrosity:)), where ether is the "fuel" to run the scripts. So it is highly different from the Bitcoin network in regard of its purpose.

But, there are problems with this idea. Both technical and social:

1. it uses a Turing-complete scripting language, so it can create infinite loops - this is supposed to be negated by using ether for every processing cycle, but still can jam up the network for awhile in theory, it is an attack vector;

2. the problem of scaling: it can not, because, every script (smart contract) must be run by every node, or the network spilt, so it can get much-much-much more hardware heavy than processing a ~300 bytes bitcoin tx.
Also, the ORDERING is different (and uncontrollable) for different nodes - because how data propagates on a network, which can totally fukup the whole idea of interdependent contracting aka: the order how script I. or script II. occupies/operates in the next block can be paramount, if scI depends on the execution of scII., and they get implemented in a different time order, they crush (fail to run, since the dependency is behind the execution order for every node downloading the new block with executable scripts -"transactions").
In short, the interblock ordering of "transactions" are not necessarily interchangeable, while in bitcoin, they are! That is a key technical unavoidable difference. The proposed solution, to split the nodes to process different executable is against the basic idea, and creates more profound problems...

3. strictly speaking, Ethereum has no (yet) known enforceable, algorithmic monetary policy (we do not know if it is fixed at what number or what is the inflation rate if not, how exactly will it transform into the PoS consensus, also, PoS can not work on the long run, because it has too many attack vectors, especially with a script running environment). Also, pre-mined -huge red flag -, which means very strong centralization, and direct control over the protocol in few hands (remember, no anonym PoW random nonce mining took place, because, premining!!!).

In bitcoin, after and since the genesis block, anyone can see the unchangeable monetary policy: 21mil coins, reward drop after every 210,000 blocks, PoW consensus.

4. those who were studying the DAO made it obvious - even before the shameful "IPO" ended -, that you can not use the same token directly for financing actual projects, while the investor's tokens are both committed (frozen), and an external force (the market price of ETH) can interfere with those project's financial plans. (If the DAO commits say, 100k ether to a project, which is supposed to worth $100k, but suddenly ETH drops 10%, they won't be able to pay the contractors, and they already committed, and can not change their "votes", while can not have enough $ - unless the contractor takes ETH, but than he faces the same problem - DAO could work, IF crypto would only be the de facto world currency, but only than).

5. Assmaster, i disagree. Bitcoin is scaling, BECAUSE it is a dumb network (LN for example). Just like Ethernet, or tcp/ip, they are dumb, but additional layers can use the easy, secure, simple basis of it. Ethereum is too complicated in itself to be layered on, forces way too complicated and self-conflicting goals to nodes, and never actually was designed to be a currency (it is a script running network platform, not designed to be an immutable, decentralized trust network with several exahash/s security power).

Thanks for the interesting write-up.
BTW, I can't help but find it comical that at the bottom of a detailed analysis, someone sincerely addresses another party as "assmaster".    Long live the internet !

[savetherainforest]

583. Buy high sell at 32,000 in < 2 years  

Adam? Is the pump still on?
Getting a little nervous here

Tell me everything will be alright. Hold me, bitbros.                                             

                             

lol

Wait till we hit 666.66 on the way down lots of walls popped up at that price

I can already see 6 walls of 666.00 or 666.66 ... or 666 walls of 666.00 or 666.66   ... and you know... BTC stands for The BTCeast ... !!! 

[Denker]

So last night we were again in the mid 580s and a dump occured.
This has happened a several times now. So it could take a while before breaking this barrier right?!
Well, I've got plenty of time!

[vonBerlichingen]

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article55413.html
US Dollar Crashes, Gold And Bitcoin Skyrocket As Economic Recovery Lie Is Exposed

They shall pick up their debts and go to hell.

Free the world as they did it with Willy.

[Karartma1]

I don't believe in oracles that much but I don't think what you posted is oracle-related. It is indeed reality-related, it is related to facts. If people will start recognizing the true lie they live in, oh man, what a fun!
And then popcorns

[DonQuijote]

lol
Willy, come with us!

Where can i use futures?? btc-e?

[savetherainforest]

So ... Look :



In the 2-3 weeks to 1 month it is safe to assume if you sell somewhere between $900 < - > 1500$ ... you will be able to buy back in at a price somewhere around $800.

[DaRude]

I don't believe in oracles that much but I don't think what you posted is oracle-related. It is indeed reality-related, it is related to facts. If people will start recognizing the true lie they live in, oh man, what a fun!
And then popcorns

Did someone say orcas? Ohh neverminf

[Assmaster2000]

Dont know will takes how long the transaction will get confirm or will get rejected.

If you're asking us how long it will take for the transaction to be added to a block: nobody knows... It can happen 10 seconds from now, or it can take several days (or more).
It's all pure luck. A miner decides which transactions he'll put in the block he's mining. He might chose your transaction, or he might chose somebody else's... A lot of times, miners chose the transactions with the highest fee per byte, some of them do make exceptions tough. Maybe one of the pool operators takes pitty and adds your transaction out of kindness, you never know

Good luck!

The future is finally here.

[becoin]

The future is finally here.

Of course, it is. People must finally understand that blockchain space is a limited and valuable resource. You have to compete to get included. And compete even more to get included fast!

[Assmaster2000]

The future is finally here.

Of course, it is. People must finally understand that blockchain space is a limited and valuable resource. You have to compete to get included. And compete even more to get included fast!

I just enjoy watching her begging and learning her valuable lesson.
That's right, beg! Tell me how much you need that tx.
Look at me! LOOK AT ME, I said LOOK AT ME when you beg!

[AZwarel]

The future is finally here.

Of course, it is. People must finally understand that blockchain space is a limited and valuable resource. You have to compete to get included. And compete even more to get included fast!

I can not believe these stories about transactions going unconfirmed for days. Bullshit. Very unlikely (like less than 0.0001% chance). I never had a transaction which did not get included at the next block, ever - of course i let my wallet software calculate the actual fee pressure and pay it, still highest fee ever paid was 0,0005, when the backlog was like 10k+ transactions, still got in the first block, np.

Even if they send a zero fee transaction, they will be included in hours, from one of those "lucky block streaks". Also, bitcoins can not be in a limbo. They are either at the original address until moved in a BLOCK, or at the new address after included in a BLOCK. If these mythical "2 days in limbo" are real, they just have to import the WIF to another wallet (or resend if the wallet has that option), and resend the same transaction with more (or non-zero) fees, the miners will accept, since the bitcoins are still at the original address when checked on the blockchain (coins are "on blockchain", not in the wallet software "it is known!") the old address until confirmed in a block not to be).

This "problem" is a FUD, any technically knowledgeable person will laugh on it...ps.: my message to these unicorn people: use a proper wallet with fee adjustment, and do not be a super cheap whiner on a 0.04$-0.08$ cost...

EDIT: some actual math: for 2 days without confirmation, someone needs to show me a 48 hours period with an average of 288 consecutive blocks, which are: all 100% full, with EVERY SINGLE transaction above the minimum 0,0001 fee paid. Come unicorns, show me such a period. They can not, that's why it is either BS, or they actually did not send the transaction (broken SVP maybe?) to the network, but too dumb to check if it is in the MemPool...

[Assmaster2000]

The future is finally here.

Of course, it is. People must finally understand that blockchain space is a limited and valuable resource. You have to compete to get included. And compete even more to get included fast!

I can not believe these stories about transactions going unconfirmed for days. Bullshit.

1. Go to the linked thread
2. Help human female
3. Get your reward
4. PR0FIT!

[DaRude]

The future is finally here.

Of course, it is. People must finally understand that blockchain space is a limited and valuable resource. You have to compete to get included. And compete even more to get included fast!

I can not believe these stories about transactions going unconfirmed for days. Bullshit. Very unlikely (like less than 0.0001% chance). I never had a transaction which did not get included at the next block, ever - of course i let my wallet software calculate the actual fee pressure and pay it, still highest fee ever paid was 0,0005, when the backlog was like 10k+ transactions, still got in the first block, np.

Even if they send a zero fee transaction, they will be included in hours, from one of those "lucky block streaks". Also, bitcoins can not be in a limbo. They are either at the original address until moved in a BLOCK, or at the new address after included in a BLOCK. If these mythical "2 days in limbo" are real, they just have to import the WIF to another wallet (or resend if the wallet has that option), and resend the same transaction with more (or non-zero) fees, the miners will accept, since the bitcoins are still at the original address when checked on the blockchain (coins are "on blockchain", not in the wallet software "it is known!") the old address until confirmed in a block not to be).

This "problem" is a FUD, any technically knowledgeable person will laugh on it...ps.: my message to these unicorn people: use a proper wallet with fee adjustment, and do not be a super cheap whiner on a 0.04$-0.08$ cost...

EDIT: some actual math: for 2 days without confirmation, someone needs to show me a 48 hours period with an average of 288 consecutive blocks, which are: all 100% full, with EVERY SINGLE transaction above the minimum 0,0001 fee paid. Come unicorns, show me such a period. They can not, that's why it is either BS, or they actually did not send the transaction (broken SVP maybe?) to the network, but too dumb to check if it is in the MemPool...

Please help i've been stuck here for 5 days, i keep offering $1 to get in a taxi but so far no one has picked me up!!! WHAT DO I DO?

I also been sitting in front of western union for those 5 days asking them to transfer my money to someone else for $0.25 (that's like 5x what i'd pay in BTC fees) they're also yet to accept me. Any advise??

[AZwarel]

The future is finally here.

Of course, it is. People must finally understand that blockchain space is a limited and valuable resource. You have to compete to get included. And compete even more to get included fast!

I can not believe these stories about transactions going unconfirmed for days. Bullshit.

1. Go to the linked thread
2. Help human female
3. Get your reward
4. PR0FIT!

This might sounds very rude and non PC but.."ahh a female stuck with technology..no additional questions.."

EDIT:
This is the supposed stucked tx OP: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1504451.msg15135208#msg15135208
(mind that she actually included all information to backtrack her address information on a public forum which is..meh)
This is the actual transaction:
https://blockchain.info/tx/fe09397d068f68fc3656d345e8e6621a3b7a1e301e50dd7884a84e42128ca6d9

OFC, zero fees. And the tx id receive time is 2016-06-08 02:33:13, that was not 2 days ago...
I smell BS.

[Assmaster2000]

Please help i've been stuck here for 5 days, i keep offering $1 to get in a taxi but so far no one has let me in!!! WHAT DO I DO?

I like your taxi analogy, only you don't pay taxis in advance -- you pay when you get out. Turns out she forgot her purse, doesn't have the fare cabby wants her to pay, and the cabby won't let her out without paying. So she's gonna live out her days in the back of the cab

@AZwarel, I agree. Bitcoin is not for womens, so not for (slightly more than) 50% of the human race. Right off the bat. It's also not for children, or OldPeople, or stupid people.
Currency of the future

[DaRude]

Please help i've been stuck here for 5 days, i keep offering $1 to get in a taxi but so far no one has let me in!!! WHAT DO I DO?

I like your taxi analogy, only you don't pay taxis in advance -- you pay when you get out. Turns out she forgot her purse, doesn't have the fare cabby wants her to pay, and the cabby won't let her out without paying. So she's gonna live out her days in the back of the cab

Ahh cute analogy almost convinced me too, if not for AZwarel post above   but that's ok don't let that discourage your little heart. You just keep on trying.

The damn bus system is completely rigged though WTF bus driver wants me to pay when i get on?? Let's both get on bus forum and troll them to death who da f*ck they think they are!?! Subways, trolleys, and don't get me started on those damn airplanes 

[AZwarel]

Please help i've been stuck here for 5 days, i keep offering $1 to get in a taxi but so far no one has let me in!!! WHAT DO I DO?

I like your taxi analogy, only you don't pay taxis in advance -- you pay when you get out. Turns out she forgot her purse, doesn't have the fare cabby wants her to pay, and the cabby won't let her out without paying. So she's gonna live out her days in the back of the cab

@AZwarel, I agree. Bitcoin is not for womens, so not for (slightly more than) 50% of the human race. Right off the bat. It's also not for children, or OldPeople, or stupid people.
Currency of the future

Yeah i know it sounds very non-pc. But, i am a scientist, i only look for the facts, and numbers, my care for social bullshit is zero. There must be a very basic non biased reason why 99% of the bitcoin user/investor/developer community is made up of 20-45 human males.

I am not biased against "women bitcoining" -and it absolutely wouldn't matter what i think -, THEY themselves are. I mean, the blockchain does not care if you are an alien dog from the future, so there can not be any reason why women do not use/study bitcoin other patriarchy than they do not want to. So i just made a statistically relevant and probable observation about the equation women+bitcoin= 99% likely fubar.

EDIT: now that i think about it, i trapped myself ion confirmation bias. 99,99% of the male population does not care about bitcoin as well. So the male/female ratio in bitcoin usage does not really matter, from a random n sample it is just as likely to get a male or female 99% who knows nothing about bitcoin.