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Question: What happens first:
$65,000 - 51 (87.9%)
$48,000 - 7 (12.1%)
Total Voters: 58

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26316736 times)
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phoenix1
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May 02, 2013, 03:34:15 PM
 #3141

What do you mean I can't see the market objectively from my position? I'm not a daytrader really, I'm in it for the long term.

Thats cool man. I am not saying you can't see it. I way saying that my experience of of having positions go against me and holding onto them anyway made it difficult for me to decide what to do next. Intended short term trades became investments ... did not end well for me.
If your happy with it, no worries. No offence meant.

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ineededausername
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May 02, 2013, 03:40:04 PM
 #3142

Confession: I've been out of the game with all my money on gox for a while.  It has all been sold at $140 and upwards.

Unfortunately, I think my speculation on the nature of the bubble burst was off.  This was a major upswing, and I realize the differences now.

Minor upswings ($15.38 in Aug'12) are characterized by (1) not too much press and (2) slower userbase growth.  The nice thing about that is that when the faucet of new funds is turned off, a complete crash does not happen.  It crashed from 15.38 to 7.58 before bouncing, and gradually went up to 13 again.  Overall, pretty stable boom-bust-recovery.

Major upswings are rapid phases of adoption.  Unfortunately, when the fountain of new funds is gone, these seem to burst painfully.  

However, the upswing this time was accompanied by great development of fundamentals (userbase growth, service growth, awareness, interest from VCs + SV + the "mainstream").  In two years, I'm sure the bulls will be winning.  There hasn't actually been too much catastrophically bad news for the Bitcoin economy, in comparison to '11, and this is simply a case of deflated expectations (including my own).  The crash may be painful but this is certainly not going to be the death of Bitcoin, so I think it is very reasonable to wait for the bottom, buy in, and then watch it go to new ATHs Smiley

We might have to be a bit patient though.
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May 02, 2013, 03:42:10 PM
 #3143

Thank you ineededausername, that's actually a good and sincere post. A rarity on these parts of the web.
NamelessOne
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May 02, 2013, 03:42:28 PM
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Confession: I've been out of the game with all my money on gox for a while.  It has all been sold at $140 and upwards.

Unfortunately, I think my speculation on the nature of the bubble burst was off.  This was a major upswing, and I realize the differences now.

Minor upswings ($15.38 in Aug'12) are characterized by (1) not too much press and (2) slower userbase growth.  The nice thing about that is that when the faucet of new funds is turned off, a complete crash does not happen.  It crashed from 15.38 to 7.58 before bouncing, and gradually went up to 13 again.  Overall, pretty stable boom-bust-recovery.

Major upswings are rapid phases of adoption.  Unfortunately, when the fountain of new funds is gone, these seem to burst painfully.  

However, the upswing this time was accompanied by great development of fundamentals (userbase growth, service growth, awareness, interest from VCs + SV + the "mainstream").  In two years, I'm sure the bulls will be winning.  There hasn't actually been too much catastrophically bad news for the Bitcoin economy, in comparison to '11, and this is simply a case of deflated expectations (including my own).  The crash may be painful but this is certainly not going to be the death of Bitcoin, so I think it is very reasonable to wait for the bottom, buy in, and then watch it go to new ATHs Smiley

We might have to be a bit patient though.

These are my thoughts exactly, I await the bottom just as I did in 2011 for all those months. I wonder how long it will take this time....
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May 02, 2013, 03:42:51 PM
 #3145

We might have to be a bit patient though.
Heh, if by a bit you mean 3 or 4 years, yes a bit.
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May 02, 2013, 03:43:18 PM
 #3146

Not everyone is here to speculate. Leave the guy alone.

Can't tell if this is a sarcastic comment, considering the thread and subforum.



We're again at 100.0 as I type this. Humans and their love for certain numbers... skewing prices since they learned to count with fingers.
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May 02, 2013, 03:44:54 PM
 #3147

I fear for those battling around 95, how long can it hold..
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May 02, 2013, 03:45:30 PM
 #3148

I'm getting really tired from this today, had only 1.5 hour of sleep and concentration is on zero level... been late so many times today it's unbelievable.. shame, some serious money could be made and definitely is made by people who could focus themselves and make good timed moves.
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May 02, 2013, 03:45:51 PM
 #3149

waking up to sub 100 prices is not exactly pleasant
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May 02, 2013, 03:45:58 PM
 #3150

We might have to be a bit patient though.
Heh, if by a bit you mean 3 or 4 years, yes a bit.

The crash shouldn't take more than 6 months, until the forum shifts into capitulation mode (a-la Oct'11), at which point we're going to see slow, steady growth for a while, from whatever price the bottom is.

It may have taken a long time to climb back to 31.91 or whatever the previous ATH was, but the growth began in Nov'11.
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May 02, 2013, 03:46:06 PM
 #3151

Not everyone is here to speculate. Leave the guy alone.

Can't tell if this is a sarcastic comment, considering the thread and subforum.



We're again at 100.0 as I type this. Humans and their love for certain numbers... skewing prices since they learned to count with fingers.

It doesn't mean anyone has a right to tell another person what to do with their money. That is manipulation, not speculation. The guy didn't say "tell me what to do."
I'm speculating but neither buying or selling. Must blow your mind to find out people do this.
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May 02, 2013, 03:53:12 PM
 #3152

I am not here to manipulate the opinions of others, although given the number of people that are, I can see how that mistake could be made

So suggesting that he get out of his position because he's blinded by his "marriage" isn't telling him what to do? It's clear from the context.
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May 02, 2013, 03:54:12 PM
 #3153

Not everyone is here to speculate. Leave the guy alone.

Can't tell if this is a sarcastic comment, considering the thread and subforum.



We're again at 100.0 as I type this. Humans and their love for certain numbers... skewing prices since they learned to count with fingers.

It doesn't mean anyone has a right to tell another person what to do with their money. That is manipulation, not speculation. The guy didn't say "tell me what to do."
I'm speculating but neither buying or selling. Must blow your mind to find out people do this.

Hold on ... I didn't tell him what to do, just gave my HONEST opinion on his predicament. The only person here telling someone else what to do is in fact you ... but I am not taking offence as I know you were doing it with good intention

I am not here to manipulate the opinions of others, although given the number of people that are, I can see how that mistake could be made

I just wanted to add that I didn't take offense from any of your posts either. All the questions I asked were not meant to sound sarcastic. I'm honestly new to all this and still have a lot to learn, so I wasn't mocking you or anything. Wink Just asking honest questions (I know sarcasm and non-sarcasm are hard to convey in text)
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May 02, 2013, 03:55:40 PM
 #3154

Guys, let's please stop turning on ourselves. No one is happy with the price falling (well, maybe a bear or two out there) but let's not turn it into a grudge match.

Eat a donut or something, get your blood sugars up.
muyuu
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May 02, 2013, 04:00:58 PM
 #3155

Happy to be able to load some more on the cheap now that the onslaught of ASICs is going to make mining very tough.
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May 02, 2013, 04:02:04 PM
 #3156

Confession: I've been out of the game with all my money on gox for a while.  It has all been sold at $140 and upwards.

This surprises me (and kinda disappoints me Smiley)


However, the upswing this time was accompanied by great development of fundamentals (userbase growth, service growth, awareness, interest from VCs + SV + the "mainstream").  In two years, I'm sure the bulls will be winning.  There hasn't actually been too much catastrophically bad news for the Bitcoin economy, in comparison to '11, and this is simply a case of deflated expectations (including my own).  The crash may be painful but this is certainly not going to be the death of Bitcoin, so I think it is very reasonable to wait for the bottom, buy in, and then watch it go to new ATHs Smiley


How do you know where the bottom is? This might be it, then again so might $10. The thing is speculating on pricing in a market is a suckers game. Sure, by selling now and buying in lower you might make a few bucks but if it never goes down again you lose all the upside. This is something that feels profitable (like the Martingale gambling "system") but isn't because many small gains are offset by a gigantic loss in opportunity-cost a small percentage of the time.

I confess I sold a few BTC during the rapid rise in March but that was only a small portion of my holdings and I already regret it. The only speculation I make, have made and continue to make is that Bitcoin will fulfill at least on of the many possible niches available to it long-term. If this is true it's already undervalued at any of the prices it has ever traded at to date. (and of course the speculation that price will approach the actual value during my life-time but that's even a speculation one makes in pure value investments).
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May 02, 2013, 04:02:16 PM
 #3157

As soon as we got to mid-96, a 1700BTC wall went up at 97.
I don't know who this guy is, but he's working really hard to bring down the price.
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May 02, 2013, 04:02:42 PM
 #3158

[img]

Pretty brutal.
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May 02, 2013, 04:02:53 PM
 #3159



pigs getting slaughterd again

We did not need to see that. Please delete it.
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May 02, 2013, 04:02:57 PM
 #3160

my guess : down to 25 within a month, then up to 3k within 2 years !
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