Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rpietila]

I think the lawsuit is baked into the current price. Sell the rumor, buy the news

I hope you realize that I am one of the precious few fulltimers that can actually, fundamentally, better the situation they have there (the single point of failure called Mt.Gox). Just read my diary and all the associated things, such as the supernode summit, dealer network etc.

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[adamstgBit]

what do you do?


i should read your diary one day...

[solex]

Accordingly, this capitulation may be the greatest of this bubble collapse, but it will not be the last one and will not be the bottom.

This capitulation at $91. Have you forgotten the bottom at $50 two weeks ago?
Are you predicting a bottom below that?

Understand that my time context is the entire bubble collapse, which I expect to be roughly three months after the peak on April 10. Yes, $50 is not the bottom - that is the nature of a speculative financial bubble collapse. Evidence shows that the bottom is deeper than most expect and takes about as long to occur as the bubble took to form in the first place. I believe the bubble started January 7, 2013 at $13.50. The underlying trend I think allows for a bottom well under $50.

I understand the argument, but $13.5 was well below the 3-year logarithmic trendline. $47 was on trend which was where the price spent some time, especially before and after the  temporary chain-fork. The $266 peak was "only" 5.5x this level, whereas the 2011 peak was 30x the prevailing trend-line level of $1 then.

I agree with this sentiment, and around $80 as the potential bottom, if $91 can't hold.

6kBTC will take us to $95.00.

I have a feeling that apart from today (Friday May 3, UTC) we will never more have the chance to visit it.

Official Reason: the capitulation of 2nd Fibonacci order from the strong bull move, of $50->$167, leads us to $95, but no lower. (The third is $78, which means that should we cross $91 today, it'll be irresistible, and the the fourth and so on, but the chance is small, imo.)

Also sub-$100 prices just "seem too cheap". 

I am willing and able to just accumulate below $100 myself.

We are in a secular bull market as long as Bitcoin adoption is growing, and I see no proof to the contrary.

[420]

Yeah, Mr. SuperNode "Never 145, never 115, never 95" is right one to tell them... if you had some shame you wouldn't appear here for next month at least. But you don't, of course.

I have always prompted people to read my diary first, before daytrading (if any). Since bitcoin is going to $300k in the long run (and higher in the short), it does not make so much sense to fish the bottom unless you do it full time with an organization primed for the task (a supernode).

Just buy and hold. Buying bitcoins at any price sub-100k is not as large a mistake, as it would be to be left out of a supermove, such as the ones in the period between 8/2010-6/2011 and the one started in January 2013.

If everyone were so smart as you claim to be, they would make so much money daytrading that all bitcoins would end up in their pockets in a few short months. I am accumulating about 0.5%-1% of the new mining supply daily. I am content with it, since if the price goes down, this goes up.

The adoption of bitcoin in my observation is growing at a 10-30% weekly rate (and I actually observe things before making my fundamental predictions). There is not much room for further decreases fundamentally.

If we see the third order capitulation to $78, it does not alter any of the fundamental facts.

I saw the bubble coming and sold above $200. My miscalculation was that we would only crash to $100-$120 area and bounce back (2. fib). We did go even as low as $50 and tested it several times (4. fib).

In my thinking, 2. fibonacci should close all moves, everything of higher order is too wonderful to me to understand, and I just buy until it goes away (which it usually does).

I have 10,000 ounces of silver. Takers (pay with bitcoin only)?

think it's outrageous?

there are 21 million bitcoins to be made. if only a percent of the world population the size of USA were to get into the bitcoin economy, let's assume everyone of investing age, about 210 million people

This means each person could only have 0.1BTC if it was divided evently. Yes there are 7 more decimal places

But the real fact is how much wealth would these people have? It totals in trillions.

If one billionaire decides to put $1 billion into bitcoin thats all it takes to almost double the price ( see the market cap )

People like this are probably getting in slowly so they don't drive the price up too fast.

[Geist]

Friendly advice - ignore whatever he says, bullshitometer wants to explode as soon as he appears. You've be warned, do what you want.

I don't like discounting others opinions unless they do something to seriously piss me off, and he has yet to do that. Nevertheless, thanks for the advice.

Do you guys think the lawsuit is going to affect the price?

Personally, I think it will drive the price down in the short term, but long term it might be a good thing. The more decentralized the better.

Seleme is the most expensive sockpuppet out there, the account is created about the time when I won the infamous debate "silver vs. bitcoin". I was representing silver, that is...  

I think trading on news (such as the lawsuit), is more difficult than trading completely without them. I haven't in general followed the media since 2002 or so. I don't read analysts, newspapers, watch TV or movies, .... I have been featured in TV many more hours since 2006 than I have spent watching it.

This frees my time for thinking fundamentally. I am a very bad technical trader, but better than 99% as I make money and don't lose my position.
 

Your posts certainly give me something to think about. You may not be 100% correct on short-term predictions, but your posts are well thought out, and I can respect that.

[SlipperySlope]

I hope you realize that I am one of the precious few fulltimers that can actually, fundamentally, better the situation they have there (the single point of failure called Mt.Gox). Just read my diary and all the associated things, such as the supernode summit, dealer network etc.

Yes, and best wishes on your attempts, and those who you influence, to overcome the barriers that prevent big money investors, traders and merchants from smoothly accessing and using bitcoins. There are many win-win situations to be found and exploited.

[seleme]

Seleme is and will continue to stand in front of your ultrasupernode bullshit as seleme doesn't give a flying one about your ounces, coins etc. (I've told you numerous times where you can put your status symbols) and would rather be on bread and water till his last breath than live on the 30 millions yacht being snob like you are. You might find some low lifes who would be impressed by your talk but bet your last ounce that seleme is not the one

Seleme is and will continue to warn people that your predictions and your self-loving ramblings will heavily hurt them financially as you've said so much utter crap here that I'm not sure how the server site is hosted at doesn't explode or something.

As far as Seleme is concerned you are absolutely free to believe whatever you want and to do your business on whatever way you like, that's not my business and I don't give a shit if you're fulltimer or work from your garage. But when you advocate that crap publicly here, specially when you do that on the way that causes allergic reactions in Seleme's body, than Seleme will speak.

[rpietila]

what do you do?

i should read your diary one day...

Oh no, just please continue without reading my diary....  

I promise to read a 30 minute text from everyone, who knows about bitcoin more than I do. (All aspects of it, not just technical.) Just post the links please.

[rpietila]

Seleme is and will continue to stand in front of your ultrasupernode bullshit as seleme doesn't give a flying one about your ounces, coins etc. (I've told you numerous times where you can put your status symbols) and would rather be on bread and water till his last breath than live on the 30 millions yacht being snob like you are.

Seleme is and will continue to warn people that your predictions and your self-loving ramblings will heavily hurt them financially as you've said so much utter crap here that I'm not sure how the server site is hosted at doesn't explode or something.

As far as Seleme is concerned you are absolutely free to believe whatever you want and to do your business on whatever way you like, that's not my business. But when you advocate that crap publicly here, specially when you do that on the way that causes allergic reactions in Seleme's body, than Seleme will speak.

Ah ok. Do you own any coins?

[ElectricMucus]

Seleme is and will continue to stand in front of your ultrasupernode bullshit as seleme doesn't give a flying one about your ounces, coins etc. (I've told you numerous times where you can put your status symbols) and would rather be on bread and water till his last breath than live on the 30 millions yacht being snob like you are.

Seleme is and will continue to warn people that your predictions and your self-loving ramblings will heavily hurt them financially as you've said so much utter crap here that I'm not sure how the server site is hosted at doesn't explode or something.

As far as Seleme is concerned you are absolutely free to believe whatever you want and to do your business on whatever way you like, that's not my business. But when you advocate that crap publicly here, specially when you do that on the way that causes allergic reactions in Seleme's body, than Seleme will speak.

Ah ok. Do you own any coins?

Do you? Send me BTC13 to prove it kthx

PS: Are you drunk atm?

[adamstgBit]

Seleme is and will continue to stand in front of your ultrasupernode bullshit as seleme doesn't give a flying one about your ounces, coins etc. (I've told you numerous times where you can put your status symbols) and would rather be on bread and water till his last breath than live on the 30 millions yacht being snob like you are.

Seleme is and will continue to warn people that your predictions and your self-loving ramblings will heavily hurt them financially as you've said so much utter crap here that I'm not sure how the server site is hosted at doesn't explode or something.

As far as Seleme is concerned you are absolutely free to believe whatever you want and to do your business on whatever way you like, that's not my business. But when you advocate that crap publicly here, specially when you do that on the way that causes allergic reactions in Seleme's body, than Seleme will speak.

Ah ok. Do you own any coins?

Do you? Send me BTC13 to prove it kthx

PS: Are you drunk atm?

good idea!

[VincentX]

I think the lawsuit is baked into the current price. Sell the rumor, buy the news

I hope you realize that I am one of the precious few fulltimers that can actually, fundamentally, better the situation they have there (the single point of failure called Mt.Gox). Just read my diary and all the associated things, such as the supernode summit, dealer network etc.

Stop derailing the thread. This is the wall movement tracker, not your personal pet project propaganda thread. Substantiate your claims or shut up.

[seleme]

Seleme is and will continue to stand in front of your ultrasupernode bullshit as seleme doesn't give a flying one about your ounces, coins etc. (I've told you numerous times where you can put your status symbols) and would rather be on bread and water till his last breath than live on the 30 millions yacht being snob like you are.

Seleme is and will continue to warn people that your predictions and your self-loving ramblings will heavily hurt them financially as you've said so much utter crap here that I'm not sure how the server site is hosted at doesn't explode or something.

As far as Seleme is concerned you are absolutely free to believe whatever you want and to do your business on whatever way you like, that's not my business. But when you advocate that crap publicly here, specially when you do that on the way that causes allergic reactions in Seleme's body, than Seleme will speak.

Ah ok. Do you own any coins?

What I own is perfectly not your fucking business.

[ElectricMucus]

Seleme is and will continue to stand in front of your ultrasupernode bullshit as seleme doesn't give a flying one about your ounces, coins etc. (I've told you numerous times where you can put your status symbols) and would rather be on bread and water till his last breath than live on the 30 millions yacht being snob like you are.

Seleme is and will continue to warn people that your predictions and your self-loving ramblings will heavily hurt them financially as you've said so much utter crap here that I'm not sure how the server site is hosted at doesn't explode or something.

As far as Seleme is concerned you are absolutely free to believe whatever you want and to do your business on whatever way you like, that's not my business. But when you advocate that crap publicly here, specially when you do that on the way that causes allergic reactions in Seleme's body, than Seleme will speak.

Ah ok. Do you own any coins?

Do you? Send me BTC13 to prove it kthx

PS: Are you drunk atm?

good idea!

I hereby propose a new trading indicator called RPBA:

The so called rpietila blood alcohol level. Working on interpretation strategies.

[rpietila]

Ah ok. Do you own any coins?

Do you? Send me BTC13 to prove it kthx

PS: Are you drunk atm?

No. I am seldom drunk, but I do drink 1-6 glasses of champagne, cava, riesling and occasionally red wine, per day when I am working. When at home, I don't drink that much.

I was drunk when giving the 13,370mBTC though...

[rpietila]

Stop derailing the thread. This is the wall movement tracker, not your personal pet project propaganda thread. Substantiate your claims or shut up.

Adam, am I welcome in your thread or not? This young man is voicing his opinion on the matter, but I have a hard time recognising him, I don't think we have met...  

[johnblaze]

we're about to test the $95 wall..

[mp420]

The reason rpietila is not on my ignore is that I think he might be a great contrarian indicator. When he loses all hope in BTC it's time to buy.

[ElectricMucus]

Stop derailing the thread. This is the wall movement tracker, not your personal pet project propaganda thread. Substantiate your claims or shut up.

Adam, am I welcome in your thread or not? This young man is voicing his opinion on the matter, but I have a hard time recognising him, I don't think we have met...  

Yeah Adam, shall we continue to compare our e-penises in your thread?

[johnblaze]

we're about to test the $95 wall..

easy peasy