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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26404403 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Rampion
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May 03, 2013, 11:14:47 PM
 #3841

My gut feelings (no technical analysis here):

  • we may test $80 soon, but if it's not falling we will stabilize around $100 and go up from there
  • if $80 falls we will have a mid term bear market, with bottom further down than mostly expect
  • long term, and unless something disruptive happens (for eg. superior crypto taking over) Bitcoin can only go up

Personally I wouldn't mind going way below $80 (no fear till $25), I still wish to increase my BTC position - the cheaper the better Wink
arepo
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this statement is false


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May 03, 2013, 11:19:10 PM
 #3842

when it was obvious

you have a crystal ball for price, now?
phoenix1
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May 03, 2013, 11:22:30 PM
 #3843

Frankly I think that anyone who goes to the effort of posting any charts here that are not based on solely on their own agenda, but on sharing their opinion, should be applauded, not admonished. If they call it wrong, they call it wrong. There are no gurus here, we are all human. Nobody is forcing anyone to trade on the levels or 'predictions'. For me I find it very interesting and useful to see a cross section of other people's opinions and their analysis of the situation. And I add my own opinion when I have one, may it turn out to be right or wrong. Hindsight is a beautiful thing and losses are painful, but we are each responsible for our own mistakes.

I don't agree with blatantly biased posts intended solely to manipulate, but these are pretty easy to spot and ignore.
Most of out TA's do not fall into this category IMO ...

And FWIW, I think this is not over yet by a long shot
I don't have any targets, but I feel there is more to explore on the downside before we stabalise. $70 ? $50 ? I don't know ... but it feels like a bear market to me
Rampion
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May 03, 2013, 11:23:12 PM
 #3844

Come on, Arepo's not been so bullish as you say - in fact he predicted "next stop, 90s" just a few days ago



I don't mind arepo, he looks like a nice guy so it's absolutely nothing personal (like I have with rpietila), I just think he is overvaluing himself and his chart reading. And posts with some authority tune that I don't find deserved. Anyone who made moves based on his chart reading in last 10 days got burned heavily if didn't react on events.

Frankly, I don't agree. As I said earlier, he said the "next stop, 90s" quite clearly when we where well above $100 (I don't remember if we where already at $115 or still above $120).

I'm watching his posts a bit longer than that, he said that when it was obvious that fail is imminent after first big sell offs, I don't need charts analysis to figure that out. He was far contrary to that hours before the sell off, then talked about 120-160 range (really?) until he became bearish when anyone with half brain could see bearish time is coming.

He definitely knows more TA phrases than I am, he knows to read them better than I do but TA means crap all in bitcoin short trading (and he is trying exactly that - to predict short term moves) so he fails as miserably as any of us who don't spend hours studying fibonaccis and other ta bull  Tongue

The single guy I take remarks from TA gang is lucif. He is also not accurate in short term stuff but he is usually not trying to do that, he gives more general predictions and is on spot most of time while not trying to please the masses and give them what they want to hear.

Nah, Arepo has his "bullish bias", that of course plays its role when interpreting the charts, but we also have "our bias" that makes us more or less inaccurate depending on the situation. This is no rocket science, you have to think about your strategy combining rational elements with intuition, and from the rational perspective arepo's analysis gives us a lots of tools to work with.
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May 03, 2013, 11:26:10 PM
 #3845

I bought in at 97 Sad So much for that whole Elliot wave thing... Grrrrr
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May 03, 2013, 11:28:11 PM
 #3846

My gut feelings (no technical analysis here):

  • we may test $80 soon, but if it's not falling we will stabilize around $100 and go up from there
  • if $80 falls we will have a mid term bear market, with bottom further down than mostly expect
  • long term, and unless something disruptive happens (for eg. superior crypto taking over) Bitcoin can only go up

Personally I wouldn't mind going way below $80 (no fear till $25), I still wish to increase my BTC position - the cheaper the better Wink

Who is going to test $80? There are no more sellers left. The price has not stayed still for more than an hour for the past 3 days at least. There had been a constant selling pressure. There has been no selling pressure since 8 hours ago. To me it seems that there are no sellers left.
phoenix1
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May 03, 2013, 11:28:47 PM
 #3847

I bought in at 97 Sad So much for that whole Elliot wave thing... Grrrrr

Elliot Wave theory cost me A LOT of money (not on Bitcoin)
Or perhaps it was me projecting my bias onto the 'waves' that cost me the money ...
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May 03, 2013, 11:29:27 PM
 #3848

I bought in at 97 Sad So much for that whole Elliot wave thing... Grrrrr

why you sad

pretty soon people will be all like "damn i KNEW i should've bought under 100"
phoenix1
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May 03, 2013, 11:31:05 PM
 #3849


Who is going to test $80? There are no more sellers left. The price has not stayed still for more than an hour for the past 3 days at least. There had been a constant selling pressure. There has been no selling pressure since 8 hours ago. To me it seems that there are no sellers left.

The bears are taking a crap in the woods right now ... they have not gone away IMO. 8 hours is nothing in the grand scheme of things .. long time for a crap though I admit  Wink
arepo
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this statement is false


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May 03, 2013, 11:31:32 PM
 #3850

so the sentiment is slowly shifting -- short term bottom?
Rampion
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May 03, 2013, 11:33:13 PM
Last edit: May 03, 2013, 11:50:47 PM by Rampion
 #3851

My gut feelings (no technical analysis here):

  • we may test $80 soon, but if it's not falling we will stabilize around $100 and go up from there
  • if $80 falls we will have a mid term bear market, with bottom further down than mostly expect
  • long term, and unless something disruptive happens (for eg. superior crypto taking over) Bitcoin can only go up

Personally I wouldn't mind going way below $80 (no fear till $25), I still wish to increase my BTC position - the cheaper the better Wink

Who is going to test $80? There are no more sellers left. The price has not stayed still for more than an hour for the past 3 days at least. There had been a constant selling pressure. There has been no selling pressure since 8 hours ago. To me it seems that there are no sellers left.

I think it could happen on Monday. It's true that we had very big volumes, but who knows, we could still have a +500K day to feed a deeper capitulation leg.
phoenix1
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May 03, 2013, 11:34:06 PM
 #3852

I bought in at 97 Sad So much for that whole Elliot wave thing... Grrrrr

why you sad

pretty soon people will be all like "damn i KNEW i should've bought under 100"

hehehehe  Cheesy
Rampion
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May 03, 2013, 11:36:56 PM
 #3853

I bought in at 97 Sad So much for that whole Elliot wave thing... Grrrrr

why you sad

pretty soon people will be all like "damn i KNEW i should've bought under 100"

This is truth.

Could never be sad about BUYING. I'm sad only when I sell, today I made that mistake, that really hurts, loosing your BTCs for good...
Richy_T
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May 03, 2013, 11:38:03 PM
 #3854

seleme
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May 03, 2013, 11:38:08 PM
 #3855

My gut feelings (no technical analysis here):

  • we may test $80 soon, but if it's not falling we will stabilize around $100 and go up from there
  • if $80 falls we will have a mid term bear market, with bottom further down than mostly expect
  • long term, and unless something disruptive happens (for eg. superior crypto taking over) Bitcoin can only go up

Personally I wouldn't mind going way below $80 (no fear till $25), I still wish to increase my BTC position - the cheaper the better Wink

Who is going to test $80? There are no more sellers left. The price has not stayed still for more than an hour for the past 3 days at least. There had been a constant selling pressure. There has been no selling pressure since 8 hours ago. To me it seems that there are no sellers left.

The wall did the stuff for now, it's a fair sized one so it's not easy one to break so people are thinking "I'm going to wait to see how will this go". It might even work, who knows but it definitely saved the price to not crash again for now..
phoenix1
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May 03, 2013, 11:41:50 PM
 #3856

Who knows ? Exactly !!
That's what makes a market ...
 Smiley

DougTanner
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May 03, 2013, 11:46:11 PM
 #3857

This is probably the start of the rally to $105.

arepo
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this statement is false


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May 03, 2013, 11:46:34 PM
 #3858

*10-day 2-hour scale*



-===-

we've reached a short-term bottom. rebound is likely, CCI will reach to its recent high (at about -50), and then likely bounce. this corresponds with a price of about $100. if we break through this resistance, we could see as high as $125, although mitigating factors like low liquidity on weekends may affect these values.

-===-

and we're off...

-===-

Rampion
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May 03, 2013, 11:49:50 PM
 #3859

My gut feelings (no technical analysis here):

  • we may test $80 soon, but if it's not falling we will stabilize around $100 and go up from there
  • if $80 falls we will have a mid term bear market, with bottom further down than mostly expect
  • long term, and unless something disruptive happens (for eg. superior crypto taking over) Bitcoin can only go up

Personally I wouldn't mind going way below $80 (no fear till $25), I still wish to increase my BTC position - the cheaper the better Wink

Who is going to test $80? There are no more sellers left. The price has not stayed still for more than an hour for the past 3 days at least. There had been a constant selling pressure. There has been no selling pressure since 8 hours ago. To me it seems that there are no sellers left.

The wall did the stuff for now, it's a fair sized one so it's not easy one to break so people are thinking "I'm going to wait to see how will this go". It might even work, who knows but it definitely saved the price to not crash again for now..

And lately we have had huge volume indeed. Biggest sell off after 2011 bubble was in November, with 400K in one day... And in 2013 we had two days with aprox. 500K volume each only after the burst, so it's very possible that $50 is indeed the bottom. Despite of the "this is like 2011" posts, I believe we will have a much faster recovery, and I won't be surprised if we don't break $80 and we go up from now on.
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May 03, 2013, 11:49:51 PM
 #3860

Hail The King  Cheesy
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