Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still going sideways after yesterday's PBOC-induced dip... currently $972USD (Bitcoinaverage).

It looks like it might take another day or two to get back over $1000 but it might surprise us.

It's interesting to note that "Bear"stamp is leading the pack. The times they are a-changing.

[drnash85]

Shower thought:

The best way for the PBoC to keep Yuan in China is to sponsor/endorse the launch of their own Mainland China-based Bitcoin ETFs.

If that happens, even the wallets that are holding 100 sats will become millionaires overnight.

[Moria843]

It will be a pleasant surprise to go over $1k again SOON with all that's going on

[bitcoinvest]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still going sideways after yesterday's PBOC-induced dip... currently $972USD (Bitcoinaverage).

It looks like it might take another day or two to get back over $1000 but it might surprise us.

It's interesting to note that "Bear"stamp is leading the pack. The times they are a-changing.

Things are very fragile at the moment... This surprise you say can be at about $800 - $850 new bottom and then recover from that point.

EDIT: in March we have ETF, we have also MtGox Creditors meeting lol

[gentlemand]

i have seen bitcoin entering a multiyear downtrend based on a china ban that never existed. 

I'd say it was partly inspiration for an outrageous overshoot that was inevitably going to deflate horrifically anyway.

Anyone offering odds on an ETF approval is just pissing into the wind. Still, if people can make money then why not?

[HI-TEC99]

It will be a pleasant surprise to go over $1k again SOON with all that's going on

It probably won't be long.

Only one of the other exchanges besides Huobi and OKCoin will suspend Bitcoin and Litecoin withdrawals.

The others are making minor AML changes like stopping people depositing yuan, then buying and withdrawing Bitcoin in under 48 hours.

OKCoin was fined for AML violations last year, so its shit itself and taken an extreme course of action.

The western exchanges like Poloniex or the Kraken introduced withdrawal limits for tiered verification levels to combat AML. The Chinese exchanges are just following their example, most won't be suspending Bitcoin and Litecoin withdrawals.

http://www.coindesk.com/chinese-exchanges-will-delay-bitcoin-withdrawals/

Notably, the policies issued differ from the more stringent halt of bitcoin and litecoin withdrawals imposed by Huobi and OKCoin, which will stop these services for one month. Only CHBTC indicated it would suspend bitcoin and litecoin withdrawals for this duration.

In statements issued by BTCTrade, BTC100 and HaoBTC, the exchanges said that bitcoin and litecoin withdrawals would now be delayed, though they did not indicate they would halt any services.

All indicated yuan deposits and withdrawals would be unaffected, and that anti-money laundering (AML) upgrades were the impetus for the decision.

HaoBTC noted that its new policy was implemented to restrict the ability of its wallet users to deposit yuan, buy bitcoin and then send the digital currency within 48 hours.

[marcus_of_augustus]

This latest spike down due to PBOC FUD has some very interesting parallels with the SilkRoad take down Sept. 2013 spike before the Oct. 2013 mark-up event. Firstly it is happening at a very similar point in timing of the adoption wave fractal around/near testing previous ATH. The first waves $2-32 and $12-266 were arguably due to demand created by SR and associated activities/hype/speculation then when SR got taken down and bitcoin powered on the new meme was China ... then that topped with the PBOC bans, Mt. Gox, etc. This final spike low is the handing off the China meme and proves bitcoin doesn't need China any longer because it now has a new scale of demand coming onstream .... the ETF or institutional demand speculation meme is taking over the reins from China at the same point in the cycle in the same way as China took the reins off Silk Road. One final spike down and then everyone realise Silk Road/China is no longer the driving demand force anyway .... and away it goes.

[machasm]

This latest spike down due to PBOC FUD has some very interesting parallels with the SilkRoad take down Sept. 2013 spike before the Oct. 2013 mark-up event. Firstly it is happening at a very similar point in timing of the adoption wave fractal around/near testing previous ATH. The first waves $2-32 and $12-266 were arguably due to demand created by SR and associated activities/hype/speculation then when SR got taken down and bitcoin powered on the new meme was China ... then that topped with the PBOC bans, Mt. Gox, etc. This final spike low is the handing off the China meme and proves bitcoin doesn't need China any longer because it now has a new scale of demand coming onstream .... the ETF or institutional demand speculation meme is taking over the reins from China at the same point in the cycle in the same way as China took the reins off Silk Road. One final spike down and then everyone realise Silk Road/China is no longer the driving demand force anyway .... and away it goes.

I have been meaning to ask Marcus.
What does the mathematical equation represent in your avatar?

[JayJuanGee]

Earwig. Low.

Stakes raised. Price targets now $3,678 or $551. Take your pick

[im g]https://i.imgur.com/KuGbyuR.png[/img]

how can bitcoin price drop down, and not only drop down small but drastically to 500 range only because of something that never existed and gets denied for existence!!!
that makes no sense.

i have seen bitcoin entering a multiyear downtrend based on a china ban that never existed. 

That is because you give the wrong explanation the the multi-year downtrend event.

The downtrend that you discuss from 2014 to 2105 was not caused by china ban.. (or non existent china ban, as you call it)

[r0ach]

The Chinese govt will not divide us.....from silver going up

[marcus_of_augustus]

The Chinese govt will not divide us.....from silver going up

isn't this altcoin pumping?

[jbreher]

Earwig. Low.

Stakes raised. Price targets now $3,678 or $551. Take your pick

[im g]https://i.imgur.com/KuGbyuR.png[/img]

how can bitcoin price drop down, and not only drop down small but drastically to 500 range only because of something that never existed and gets denied for existence!!!
that makes no sense.

If one believes that expectations of ETF approval are already partly priced-in, it makes perfect sense.

I make no statement as to the probability of the precedent conjecture.

[jbreher]

The Chinese govt will not divide us.....from silver going up

https://i.imgur.com/fVOJcSa.png

2.5% over six days?


.... ooooh....kaaay....

[r0ach]

The Chinese govt will not divide us.....from silver going up

https://i.imgur.com/fVOJcSa.png

isn't this altcoin pumping?

The funny part is that China has taken control of both the bitcoin and metals market.  The western bankers (like JP Morgan) kept trying to naked short silver down as low as they could but they were forced to stop by the Chinese when there was a $2 spread between the east and west with $15.80 US and $17.80 China.  Now they are reversing their attempts to dump silver because it's just not possible and it's all profits on the long  bull run up from here forth.

[marcus_of_augustus]

The Chinese govt will not divide us.....from silver going up

https://i.imgur.com/fVOJcSa.png

isn't this altcoin pumping?

The funny part is that China has taken control of both the bitcoin and metals market.  The western bankers (like JP Morgan) kept trying to naked short silver down as low as they could but they were forced to stop by the Chinese when there was a $2 spread between the east and west with $15.80 US and $17.80 China.  Now they are reversing their attempts to dump silver because it's just not possible and it's all profits on the long run up from here forth.

You just pretty much admitted that in a digital trading world silver and gold are just like altcoins .... and China made them their bitches.

But you didn't answer my question if silver boosting in here is the same as altcoin pumping?

[r0ach]

The Chinese govt will not divide us.....from silver going up

https://i.imgur.com/fVOJcSa.png

isn't this altcoin pumping?

The funny part is that China has taken control of both the bitcoin and metals market.  The western bankers (like JP Morgan) kept trying to naked short silver down as low as they could but they were forced to stop by the Chinese when there was a $2 spread between the east and west with $15.80 US and $17.80 China.  Now they are reversing their attempts to dump silver because it's just not possible and it's all profits on the long run up from here forth.

You just pretty much admitted that in a digital trading world silver and gold are just like altcoins .... and China made them their bitches.

But you didn't answer my question if silver boosting in here is the same as altcoin pumping?

Anything that doesn't compose the base of Exter's pyramid is a fucking altcoin.

(hint: bitcoin doesn't occupy the base of Exter's pyramid and never will because it's impossible for it to compete with metals as a store of value)

[marcus_of_augustus]

(hint: bitcoin doesn't occupy the base of Exter's pyramid and never will because it's impossible for it to compete with metals as a store of value)

all observational evidence to the contrary ... cognitive dissonance doesn't sit well on you r0ach.

[Karartma1]

I see we are going up again. PBOC together with OKCoin and Huobi will have to do something more to dump the price mmore than this. This is totally a trench warfare now. Only the strongest survive 

$970 by the way

[bitcoinvest]

I see we are going up again. PBOC together with OKCoin and Huobi will have to do something more to dump the price mmore than this. This is totally a trench warfare now. Only the strongest survive 

$970 by the way

i have  a strange feeling something will do indeed and is on the horizon i don't like the charts this moment... this up bounce is not strong

[JayJuanGee]

I see we are going up again. PBOC together with OKCoin and Huobi will have to do something more to dump the price mmore than this. This is totally a trench warfare now. Only the strongest survive  

$970 by the way

i have  a strange feeling something will do indeed and is on the horizon i don't like the charts this moment... this up bounce is not strong

What is your "strange feeling?"

What level of probabilities do you assign to up or down?


When you say that you are more inclined for down, are you influenced by your short (or your having had sold)  in your opinion?

I try to place my bets in both directions in order that I am neutral about either direction and to just judge the probabilities based on realities of the situation (rather than wishes or rather than positions that I may have taken), and it seems that there is a bit of tension to go up from here.. at least a bit of a upward bounce in the short term, no?

I mean we already experienced a considerable and intense increased volume attempting to push prices down.  Remember there where tens of thousands of coins dumped in a very short period of time in order to attempt to get prices to go down.  There were more than 13k coins dumped on Stamp alone in about 2 hours, and those attempts to dump and to drive prices down have only been so successful.  They have run into buying support and inabilities to get the prices to go lower, no?  , and there is a bit of pressure to go back up.. that is the sense that i am getting at the current time, as I type....

So maybe as I type I would place additional downwards at less likely than upwards.. maybe 45% or less for downwards, and 55% or more for upwards.. at least the short term. the next 1 to 3% of a price move in either direction.. of course further out, we may have a bit of a different dynamic that develops and we have to keep our ear to the situation (and yeah, we don't know if dumpers still have some coins in reserve that they are ready and willing to dump at these levels and based on current dynamics, even though it kind of seems that they may have used up a lot of their coins already, no?)