Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TeeBone]

my question is will 1k stay ? hopefully this time it will stays there.... a new floor for btc

the laggards from btc-e still are below $1000, so we still can't say we are 100% above $1000

but this rise seem more sustainable, because the price is rising kinda slowly, so changes of bears panicking and unloading lots of coins with no plans is lower, but we never know

my bet is that $1000 level won't be lost as quickly and easily as in the end of the year

You consider a $270 move up in 10 days slow ? I assume you're not a trader who understands proportionality. That's a monster bounce, in a short time.

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[JayJuanGee]

I see this as a large bounce off the 750 low, we should hit the 78% retracement at 1055. But, to zoom through the ATH from here, doesnt look proportional...it's happening too quick. If this is indeed the 'handle' part of the huge cup and handle from 2013-now, then another drop is likely.

This is also logical to me. The handle is not formed yet, should take a minimum of 5.2857 weeks up to 6 months. I see the price getting to $1000-$1050 followed by another correction of ~25%, so not as far of a drop percentage wise as before but nonetheless.
Again I am not a bear but a chartist (novice).
I do want the price to go CCMF and to the moon, etc. But wishing for it to happen does not make it happen, being prepared for the swings helps psychologically as well as financially.

As you were typing that post, the price had already been touching upon $1010.. and maybe even a bit beyond.... So, yeah, even while we are experiencing decent upwards pressures, you are suggesting the price could drop at any minute... Yeah, you are right that it can, but when we are in the midst of a run (and even kind of in a momentum production period, there is no reason to believe that the price is going to suddenly reverse - even though it is possible to experience such reversals, the momentum remains ---- uppity... ).. so in that regard, it seems more realistic to prognosticate that there is going to be a bit more uppity.. before the down or flat begins..... am I not correct?

Sidenote:
All these people claiming to be investors still spouting the same thing yet the sooner they realize that they are actually traders then they can worry about price drops. As an investor the current price should never matter since they are hodling long term and any price below their target sell price is a great price to buy. All this bullshit of "Gee I only buy the dips," is pure hogwash. If you are only seeing it as a good buy because it once was $1200 and now it is $1000, then all last year and the year before and the year before that were great buying opportunities. So please save us all the rhetoric and keep the mindless chatter to yourselves.

You are just spouting out wanna be right self righteous baloney here, and seem to be trying to accuse people of being hypocrites merely because they are not going all in at all times.  Even you should realize by now that having a really strong belief that the price is going up does not necessarily mean that you gotta go balls to the walls in, otherwise you are hypocrite.. that is baloney.   A person could have a strong belief about up and only be 60% in  or 80% in or 96% in... and that is going to vary from person to person, and they can practice such variance without being hypocritical.  


And, buying on dips is a great strategy.. for a lot of reasons, including the fact that there is frequently a cash flow situation that people have to deal with... maybe when prices were $250 for much of 2015, I only had $2k cash that I could invest, and I choose to invest $1k because even though I think that the price has a good chance of going up, I really do not know.  Now, over the next 12 to 18 months, I may continue to have a cash flow that continues to allow me to buy $100 a month... but I did not have that additional $1,200 to $1,800 available in 2015, even though in subsequent months, I can assess my finances and figure out that I do have that money available (to buy on dips)...

Ever heard of dollar cost averaging?      

[JayJuanGee]

my question is will 1k stay ? hopefully this time it will stays there.... a new floor for btc

the laggards from btc-e still are below $1000, so we still can't say we are 100% above $1000

but this rise seem more sustainable, because the price is rising kinda slowly, so changes of bears panicking and unloading lots of coins with no plans is lower, but we never know

my bet is that $1000 level won't be lost as quickly and easily as in the end of the year

You consider a $270 move up in 10 days slow ? I assume you're not a trader who understands proportionality. That's a monster bounce, in a short time.

It would be more of a "monster bounce", if we had not been in the same place 30 days before... more or less... .. so there is a difference between coming back versus going up for the first time ... no?

[Wolf Rainer]

No "its hapenning" meme? No "to the moon" posts?

[Paashaas]

No "its hapenning" meme? No "to the moon" posts?

Just hodl the rocket!

[bones261]

No "its hapenning" meme? No "to the moon" posts?

[savetherainforest]

I knew it!

When I've seen it touch 200$ in 2015... I was thinking: "Are these people insane?? WTF is this sh!t??" ...

[Ted E. Bare]

Hodl tight, give them nothing.

[PoolMinor]

I see this as a large bounce off the 750 low, we should hit the 78% retracement at 1055. But, to zoom through the ATH from here, doesnt look proportional...it's happening too quick. If this is indeed the 'handle' part of the huge cup and handle from 2013-now, then another drop is likely.

This is also logical to me. The handle is not formed yet, should take a minimum of 5.2857 weeks up to 6 months. I see the price getting to $1000-$1050 followed by another correction of ~25%, so not as far of a drop percentage wise as before but nonetheless.
Again I am not a bear but a chartist (novice).
I do want the price to go CCMF and to the moon, etc. But wishing for it to happen does not make it happen, being prepared for the swings helps psychologically as well as financially.

As you were typing that post, the price had already been touching upon $1010.. and maybe even a bit beyond.... So, yeah, even while we are experiencing decent upwards pressures, you are suggesting the price could drop at any minute... Yeah, you are right that it can, but when we are in the midst of a run (and even kind of in a momentum production period, there is no reason to believe that the price is going to suddenly reverse - even though it is possible to experience such reversals, the momentum remains ---- uppity... ).. so in that regard, it seems more realistic to prognosticate that there is going to be a bit more uppity.. before the down or flat begins..... am I not correct?

Sidenote:
All these people claiming to be investors still spouting the same thing yet the sooner they realize that they are actually traders then they can worry about price drops. As an investor the current price should never matter since they are hodling long term and any price below their target sell price is a great price to buy. All this bullshit of "Gee I only buy the dips," is pure hogwash. If you are only seeing it as a good buy because it once was $1200 and now it is $1000, then all last year and the year before and the year before that were great buying opportunities. So please save us all the rhetoric and keep the mindless chatter to yourselves.

You are just spouting out wanna be right self righteous baloney here, and seem to be trying to accuse people of being hypocrites merely because they are not going all in at all times.  Even you should realize by now that having a really strong belief that the price is going up does not necessarily mean that you gotta go balls to the walls in, otherwise you are hypocrite.. that is baloney.   A person could have a strong belief about up and only be 60% in  or 80% in or 96% in... and that is going to vary from person to person, and they can practice such variance without being hypocritical.  


And, buying on dips is a great strategy.. for a lot of reasons, including the fact that there is frequently a cash flow situation that people have to deal with... maybe when prices were $250 for much of 2015, I only had $2k cash that I could invest, and I choose to invest $1k because even though I think that the price has a good chance of going up, I really do not know.  Now, over the next 12 to 18 months, I may continue to have a cash flow that continues to allow me to buy $100 a month... but I did not have that additional $1,200 to $1,800 available in 2015, even though in subsequent months, I can assess my finances and figure out that I do have that money available (to buy on dips)...

Ever heard of dollar cost averaging?      

Ever heard of dollar cost averaging?
Dollar cost averaging only works if the price is going down from the point you bought in the first place, otherwise you are increasing your cost average by buying more as the price rises, yet this isn't the point of my argument only yours. But alas you have your JJG blinders on again and have missed the point? Do you even read people's posts or do you form an opinion based on the word length?

So, yeah, even while we are experiencing decent upwards pressures, you are suggesting the price could drop at any minute... Yeah, you are right that it can, but when we are in the midst of a run (and even kind of in a momentum production period, there is no reason to believe that the price is going to suddenly reverse - even though it is possible to experience such reversals, the momentum remains ---- uppity... )

Did I suggest a sudden drop? no
I suggested this repeat of chart patterns. Please look at June-July 2016, November-Dec 2015, May-August 2014, November 2013-Feb 2014. Do you not see the same thing over and over and over and over?
Or do you suggest that there has to be some kind of ban or horrible news piece to make the price drop?


Edit:
..."not going all in at all times"
Also I do not use infinitives like you seem to, it is extreme left or extreme right with you.




http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/12/difference-investing-trading.asp

"In general, investors seek larger returns over an extended period through buying and holding. Traders, by contrast, take advantage of both rising and falling markets to enter and exit positions over a shorter timeframe, taking smaller, more frequent profits."

[JayJuanGee]

I see this as a large bounce off the 750 low, we should hit the 78% retracement at 1055. But, to zoom through the ATH from here, doesnt look proportional...it's happening too quick. If this is indeed the 'handle' part of the huge cup and handle from 2013-now, then another drop is likely.

This is also logical to me. The handle is not formed yet, should take a minimum of 5.2857 weeks up to 6 months. I see the price getting to $1000-$1050 followed by another correction of ~25%, so not as far of a drop percentage wise as before but nonetheless.
Again I am not a bear but a chartist (novice).
I do want the price to go CCMF and to the moon, etc. But wishing for it to happen does not make it happen, being prepared for the swings helps psychologically as well as financially.

As you were typing that post, the price had already been touching upon $1010.. and maybe even a bit beyond.... So, yeah, even while we are experiencing decent upwards pressures, you are suggesting the price could drop at any minute... Yeah, you are right that it can, but when we are in the midst of a run (and even kind of in a momentum production period, there is no reason to believe that the price is going to suddenly reverse - even though it is possible to experience such reversals, the momentum remains ---- uppity... ).. so in that regard, it seems more realistic to prognosticate that there is going to be a bit more uppity.. before the down or flat begins..... am I not correct?

Sidenote:
All these people claiming to be investors still spouting the same thing yet the sooner they realize that they are actually traders then they can worry about price drops. As an investor the current price should never matter since they are hodling long term and any price below their target sell price is a great price to buy. All this bullshit of "Gee I only buy the dips," is pure hogwash. If you are only seeing it as a good buy because it once was $1200 and now it is $1000, then all last year and the year before and the year before that were great buying opportunities. So please save us all the rhetoric and keep the mindless chatter to yourselves.

You are just spouting out wanna be right self righteous baloney here, and seem to be trying to accuse people of being hypocrites merely because they are not going all in at all times.  Even you should realize by now that having a really strong belief that the price is going up does not necessarily mean that you gotta go balls to the walls in, otherwise you are hypocrite.. that is baloney.   A person could have a strong belief about up and only be 60% in  or 80% in or 96% in... and that is going to vary from person to person, and they can practice such variance without being hypocritical.  


And, buying on dips is a great strategy.. for a lot of reasons, including the fact that there is frequently a cash flow situation that people have to deal with... maybe when prices were $250 for much of 2015, I only had $2k cash that I could invest, and I choose to invest $1k because even though I think that the price has a good chance of going up, I really do not know.  Now, over the next 12 to 18 months, I may continue to have a cash flow that continues to allow me to buy $100 a month... but I did not have that additional $1,200 to $1,800 available in 2015, even though in subsequent months, I can assess my finances and figure out that I do have that money available (to buy on dips)...

Ever heard of dollar cost averaging?      

Ever heard of dollar cost averaging?
Dollar cost averaging only works if the price is going down from the point you bought in the first place, otherwise you are increasing your cost average by buying more as the price rises, yet this isn't the point of my argument only yours.

1) dollar cost averaging works in a lot of situations, and usually folks do better by employing some kind of variation of it - not necessarily by attempting to time the market or attempting to maximize anything (such as low costs)

2) Whether this is your point or not, the point plays in to your attempt to criticize folks merely because they have a variety of approaches and whether they call their approach "investing" or "trading" or whether they are consistent along the way or whether they consistently change their approach does not really matter.  People will frequently attempt to figure something that works for them and they may also have to change it many times because not everyone is as smart as you seem to be suggesting that they have to be in order to have a successful approach.

But alas you have your JJG blinders on again and have missed the point?

Yes.  You made your points, and I made my points, and hopefully one or both of us become more enlightened by exchanging points.  hahaahaha.

Do you even read people's posts or do you form an opinion based on the word length?

Yes.. I responded to various points that you made, and you limited your response without addressing a variety of points that I made.  I doubt that we necessarily need to act as is we get all the points of others in order to make our own points or even to substantially respond to points that were raised by the other (whether intentional or not).

So, yeah, even while we are experiencing decent upwards pressures, you are suggesting the price could drop at any minute... Yeah, you are right that it can, but when we are in the midst of a run (and even kind of in a momentum production period, there is no reason to believe that the price is going to suddenly reverse - even though it is possible to experience such reversals, the momentum remains ---- uppity... )

Did I suggest a sudden drop? no

what you want to suggest and what you suggest can be two different things.

I suggested this repeat of chart patterns. Please look at June-July 2016, November-Dec 2015, May-August 2014, November 2013-Feb 2014. Do you not see the same thing over and over and over and over?
Or do you suggest that there has to be some kind of ban or horrible news piece to make the price drop?

Both of us are probably smart enough to know that prices rise and drop for a variety of reasons which can be a combination of factors that you can measure in technical analysis and math, and yes, sometimes it is news and sometimes it is merely a small number of manipulators causing the momentum or the change in momentum.

Like I already mentioned (or at least implied), even if you are relying on technical analysis, you are also assigning a set of probabilities to events - unless you happen to think (which I believe would be foolish) that some results are inevitable rather than 20% or 60 % or 93.54% probable?  I doubt that you believe that outcomes are certain, even if sometimes you are phrasing some of your analysis in ways that seem to give way too high of probabilities to some outcomes.

Edit:
..."not going all in at all times"
Also I do not use infinitives like you seem to, it is extreme left or extreme right with you.

Fair enough.. It may have just been my reading, and may have just been that one post?   I am not attempting to find any pattern in your predictive behavior.. at least, not yet..  

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/12/difference-investing-trading.asp

"In general, investors seek larger returns over an extended period through buying and holding. Traders, by contrast, take advantage of both rising and falling markets to enter and exit positions over a shorter timeframe, taking smaller, more frequent profits."

Whatever.... we can call ourselves whatever we want, and yeah, sure our activities may also fit in one category or another and we may or may not be calling ourselves correctly... Why does it matter?

[PoolMinor]

Yeah this time it will be different.  








Also at JJG:

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah this time it will be different.  


[http://i68.tinypic.com/2eutoiv.png[/img]





Also at JJG:

In other words you are coming off as retarded, but trying to act as if you are spreading some meaningful technical knowledge.... about inevitable patterns..... and bitcoin is not inevitable.... helrow??? an also without addressing any of the various previous points that I made...

Good luck with your attempt at a little bubble living.


By the way, bubble, I do like your cute ignore JJG meme... hahaha..   

[600watt]

china wants to move up. the spread between western exchanges and mainland china is $25. $ and € are hesitant.

i wish it could go sideways for a week or so to calm everyone down.

some people think with the price above $1000 for the third time, that this time it will not come back. some think the price recovery after the 35% drop is just a bounce/bull trap and that it will crash a third time.

i did not expect that price would recover so fast after PBOC intervention and the epic meltdown of chinese volume. it also came back way to fast for the three year mother of all cup and handle formations.

so here we are: clueless as always..


i will not touch the cold storage. but there are some coins that i could sell in order to buy back more if there is a drop. i missed the opportunity on jan.5th because i thought we would go to approx. $1400 or 1500 before dropping hard. i would like not to miss it again.

my current idea is to put a stop loss order somewhere in the area we are right now. problem is that i would hate to put it to close to the actual price, because i don´t want to get burned by a drop that triggers my stop loss but then turns around and rally hard...

so where would you armchair experts suggest a sweet spot for a stop loss ?


edit: woah... fuck.. too late..  

[JayJuanGee]

china wants to move up. the spread between western exchanges and mainland china is $25. $ and € are hesitant.

i wish it could go sideways for a week or so to calm everyone down.

some people think with the price above $1000 for the third time, that this time it will not come back. some think the price recovery after the 35% drop is just a bounce/bull trap and that it will crash a third time.

i did not expect that price would recover so fast after PBOC intervention and the epic meltdown of chinese volume. it also came back way to fast for the three year mother of all cup and handle formations.

so here we are: clueless as always..


i will not touch the cold storage. but there are some coins that i could sell in order to buy back more if there is a drop. i missed the opportunity on jan.5th because i thought we would go to approx. $1400 or 1500 before dropping hard. i would like not to miss it again.

my current idea is to put a stop loss order somewhere in the area we are right now. problem is that i would hate to put it to close to the actual price, because i don´t want to get burned by a drop that triggers my stop loss but then turns around and rally hard...

so where would you armchair experts suggest a sweet spot for a stop loss ?


edit: woah... fuck.. too late..  

I think that all of those attempting to predict strategies are too risky.

You are asserting that you want to protect yourself from some of the downside volatility and to accumulate more coins if such downside volatility happens and you do not want to sell too many coins, in case the price goes up - instead of down (which also seems the longer term trend).

Safest is incrementalism, and pick an amount that is comfortable for you.  I am currently selling about 1% of my total bitcoin holdings for every 10% rise, however I do it in about $20 increments, therefore, I am selling like .2% of my BTC holdings  for every 2% rise.. and then that money starts to add up and I have it in order to buy back..which sooner or later seems to happen.. and causes me to have more bitcoins even while the price is moving up.

It is almost inevitable in bitcoin that we are going to experience  some of these drastic moves in both directions and the downwards seem pretty obvious to be decent buying opportunities and you can use the accumulated money from selling incrementally (in very small amounts) for such buying back during those seemingly inevitable downturns.

[600watt]

back to $1000

good bye triple digits 

[TeeBone]

I see this as a large bounce off the 750 low, we should hit the 78% retracement at 1055. But, to zoom through the ATH from here, doesnt look proportional...it's happening too quick. If this is indeed the 'handle' part of the huge cup and handle from 2013-now, then another drop is likely.

Sidenote:
All these people claiming to be investors still spouting the same thing yet the sooner they realize that they are actually traders then they can worry about price drops. As an investor the current price should never matter since they are hodling long term and any price below their target sell price is a great price to buy. All this bullshit of "Gee I only buy the dips," is pure hogwash. If you are only seeing it as a good buy because it once was $1200 and now it is $1000, then all last year and the year before and the year before that were great buying opportunities. So please save us all the rhetoric and keep the mindless chatter to yourselves.

It's like the goldbugs (consider myself one too) who buy gold as "insurance against the fiat system", yet talk 24/7 about price manipulation. Gotta chuckle at that.

[Karartma1]

back to $1000

good bye triple digits 

There has been a very long red candle on Stamp half an hour ago. Did you see that? we got back to the triple digits but the price bounced back without problems. I'd say, yeah 

[bitcoinvest]

i try to read the last pages and looks like i can't understand what exactly are you talking about....

some pages before you spoke about china is driving the game etc.... i read many many times posts that have no relation to reality.

i think that the days of 3 digit price are gone, we are going up, the big problems have started long time for Euro and this is a good push for the Bitcoin, let's see what we will see March 11 - ETF etc... until then of course HODL!!! i'm not going to sell anything before 2000 - 3000 / BTC

[600watt]

back to $1000

good bye triple digits 

There has been a very long red candle on Stamp half an hour ago. Did you see that? we got back to the triple digits but the price bounced back without problems. I'd say, yeah 

this red candle was exactly what i meant when i was considering a stop loss in my previous post.  a stop loss to close to the actual price could get triggered but if afterwards price climbs back so fast it is possible that you wake up just to learn that your coins are gone for a cheaper price and price continues to rally.

i guess i better just don´t fuck around at all with any of my coins. after all those years i learned that for me this is the safest strategy. especially in an uptrend. bitcoin is a beast and even though there is only one dimension that the price can move (up/down) there seems to a myriad of ways for an unskilled noob like me to lose coins when trading this roller coaster.

missing the sell@top/buy the dips opportunities is easier to handle than actually lose some of my beloved shiny holy coins.  i keep watching, that is entertaining enough.

[JayJuanGee]

back to $1000

good bye triple digits 

There has been a very long red candle on Stamp half an hour ago. Did you see that? we got back to the triple digits but the price bounced back without problems. I'd say, yeah 

this red candle was exactly what i meant when i was considering a stop loss in my previous post.  a stop loss to close to the actual price could get triggered but if afterwards price climbs back so fast it is possible that you wake up just to learn that your coins are gone for a cheaper price and price continues to rally.

i guess i better just don´t fuck around at all with any of my coins. after all those years i learned that for me this is the safest strategy. especially in an uptrend. bitcoin is a beast and even though there is only one dimension that the price can move (up/down) there seems to a myriad of ways for an unskilled noob like me to lose coins when trading this roller coaster.

missing the sell@top/buy the dips opportunities is easier to handle than actually lose some of my beloved shiny holy coins.  i keep watching, that is entertaining enough.

That is why you do not employ any of those leveraging tools, or margin or anything like that....  it is too risky, unless you are going to be really actively involved and you employ a bunch of off set strategies that cause you to win big for every 5 times that you end up losing... hahahahaha

stick to really simple and small and non leveraged (and later, you can increase the amounts, once you get a decent feeling for it)