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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21336370 times)
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JayJuanGee
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January 30, 2017, 07:30:26 AM

You may be correct.. no harm, no foul.. but my understanding is that there is a reason for blocksize limits, and some of it has to do with bloat and bandwith, etc etc..

The reason for the blocksize limit is that at the time it was implemented, bitcoins were worthless and blocks were easy to generate with a CPU.  Anyone could build huge blocks for no cost.  The blocksize limit was added as an antispam measure since it was basically free to spam.

Today, if you want to build a big block, you risk that the rest of the network will reject it.  If that happens, your block is orphaned and you lose the block reward (subsidy + fees).  In order to spam a large block, you have to take the risk that your block will be orphaned, costing you about $11,250 (12.5 btc/block * $900 / btc).  Not to mention, that larger blocks take longer to propagate than smaller blocks, so in a race condition, the smaller block will always win and the larger block will be orphaned.

Even at the time the blocksize was introduced, Satoshi himself intended for it to be increased at a later date (via a hard fork):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1347.msg15366#msg15366
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It can be phased in, like:

if (blocknumber > 115000)
    maxblocksize = largerlimit

It can start being in versions way ahead, so by the time it reaches that block number and goes into effect, the older versions that don't have it are already obsolete.

When we're near the cutoff block number, I can put an alert to old versions to make sure they know they have to upgrade.

I also responded to this one in the seg wit / bitcoin unlimited thread... https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1759891.msg17669731#msg17669731
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January 30, 2017, 07:38:27 AM

I am also of the understanding that seg wit is a much better solution for a lot of matters and should be the next step, rather than rushing into BU when there does not really appear to be a need for it, not at the moment.. and seg wit is a better next step (at this time).
you have it backward.

they are rushing segwit and all its glory, when it is the thing that is not needed. Clearly a system to govern all futher block size increases is nessary, in fact we could use such a system to stabilize the fee market right now.

you can go with a silly static block size with some kind of predetermined growth rate.

but that being adopted doesn't really mean anything, the responsibility to agree to and enforce (or not) is up to nodes. Nodes ultimately have the power, BU only recognizes that power, thats all.



O.k.  I did not know that there was any kind of problem with the current fees or with transactions being stalled...... and seg wit has been tested and there is a version of it that is ready for adopting.  I don't really know too much about BU being activated and tested.  I suppose if it becomes more popular, then maybe it will get adopted... before seg wit... I doubt that I have too much to do with any of that, right?  Why should I care if BU is adopted? 

I have heard a lot of good things about seg wit, so I am looking forward to that being adopted, but I have no real reason to think that BU is necessary at this time.. because it seems that there should be a certain level of priority going to get the thing activated (seg wit) that has already been tested and seems to be fairly non controversial by technical folks.
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January 30, 2017, 07:39:46 AM

when the gr8 chain-segregation comes, and it will come!
make sure you're hodling.
its gana get nutty in here soon, if your plan isn't to bunker down with ALL the bitcoins, you're gonna have a bad time. Undecided
ErisDiscordia
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January 30, 2017, 07:47:32 AM

Oh gawd ... when did this place become infested with the BU idiots again?!! FFS.

It's a walking disaster, a true shit show in terms of network systems thinking and an even worse fuck-up in terms of software implementation.

When will you guys grow a brain and at some point and leave that fucking huge shillfest mess behind already?!

Perhaps that time will come, when blockstream stops behaving like censoring dictators, suspiciously backed by captains of financial industry. Maybe when people who support them (like you) stop spewing hateful insults and using arguments from authority.

Before you insult me as well, please note that I am endorsing neither BU nor Core here, just answering your question.

On a side note...WHAT is going on with the price? Shouldn't it be breaking up or down by now?
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January 30, 2017, 07:48:40 AM
Last edit: January 30, 2017, 10:29:23 AM by r0ach

There is no gold settlement... bitcoin is the only one. You try to goto fort knox to prove you own a rightful piece of that pie after paying for its claim. Good luck!

Bitcoin as a settlement layer would mean you'd always be dealing with derivatives of bitcoin in order to do day to day transactions that increase it's counter party risk even higher than it is now, and everyone knows bitcoin's counter party risk is already higher than metals in the first place.  There is no situation ever in which bitcoin has less counter party risk than metals, especially when you're using bitcoin derivatives.  

A normal human actually can be their own banker with metals, but with bitcoin there are a million external counter party risk factors that can implode it - like whatever a random bitcoin dev decides to do after waking up in the morning.  Then the fact that if people are going to claim bitcoin is never actually "finished", it's a centralized technocracy by default on the software side and centralized by economy of scale on the mining side.

Can you make money with bitcoin?  Sure.  But don't pretend it's actually solved any problems to make metals obsolete.  Contrary to popular opinion that bitcoin "works" because it's existed for 8 years, this is misleading.  You can start timing the date of whether bitcoin works or not from the point where all micro-transactions are forced off-chain and all on-chain transactions are settlement payments with derivatives of those settlements (such as LN) being used for commerce - with block reward also gone, surviving off transaction fees.

Bitcoin can currently derive price entirely from just being a wild speculative gamble, but the closer you get to the endgame, the more the price will be derived from if the economics and use case makes any sense - and whether economy of scale makes it completely centralized or not.  As I said above, I don't think it has a valid use case as a store of value or settlement layer, so this means it's only hope is LN + vast amounts of transactions and then it's value I guess would be held up by acting as some type of paypal-like processor.

As everybody knows, gold and silver don't really require high transaction flow and turnover, but bitcoin's price is entirely high transaction flow based.  This is why bitcoin as a settlement layer without derivatives of those settlements that are also deemed to be "trustless" has never made any sense.
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January 30, 2017, 08:03:51 AM


On a side note...WHAT is going on with the price? Shouldn't it be breaking up or down by now?

What you talkin bout, willis?  Prices? what does that have to do with anything?    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


O.k... o.k.   I  will settle down and go along with your point...

What are you gonna call it?   Consolidation no?  This is not unusual.. .we got a narrowing in on a price range of about $908 to $922..... but even deviating 1% from that range in one direction or another may still be kind of captured within the consolidation range...... fairly low volume too, and maybe even a well needed rest for some battlers.....

 so wouldn't our price break out need to be a bit more than 2% from one end or another before it becomes significant...?    I am still kind of thinking that up is a bit more likely than down, but I am not giving a lot of difference in my bet in regards to the point spread.... and even if it breaks down for a short period, I cannot really see more than a 10% down... but a 10% up seems more plausible than a 10% down.. in my current thinking... even though it could take a bit of time before we witness the break out.
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January 30, 2017, 09:44:15 AM

i think we are reaching the end of the handle tbh
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January 30, 2017, 10:39:29 AM

i think we are reaching the end of the handle tbh

Which time scale are you looking at?

Very small handle.
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January 30, 2017, 11:16:11 AM

Oh gawd ... when did this place become infested with the BU idiots again?!! FFS.

It's a walking disaster, a true shit show in terms of network systems thinking and an even worse fuck-up in terms of software implementation.

When will you guys grow a brain and at some point and leave that fucking huge shillfest mess behind already?!

Perhaps that time will come, when blockstream stops behaving like censoring dictators, suspiciously backed by captains of financial industry. Maybe when people who support them (like you) stop spewing hateful insults and using arguments from authority.

What does blockstream have to do with supposed censorship on some forum or subreddit? And what does that have to do with the development of the Bitcoin protocol? And this is the internet, some people are always going to spew hateful insults on both sides of any argument. You have to be able to filter that out or there will never be a resolution.
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January 30, 2017, 11:36:40 AM
Last edit: January 30, 2017, 11:59:08 AM by ErisDiscordia

Oh gawd ... when did this place become infested with the BU idiots again?!! FFS.

It's a walking disaster, a true shit show in terms of network systems thinking and an even worse fuck-up in terms of software implementation.

When will you guys grow a brain and at some point and leave that fucking huge shillfest mess behind already?!

Perhaps that time will come, when blockstream stops behaving like censoring dictators, suspiciously backed by captains of financial industry. Maybe when people who support them (like you) stop spewing hateful insults and using arguments from authority.

What does blockstream have to do with supposed censorship on some forum or subreddit? And what does that have to do with the development of the Bitcoin protocol? And this is the internet, some people are always going to spew hateful insults on both sides of any argument. You have to be able to filter that out or there will never be a resolution.

It has to do with the issue of trust. It should come as no surprise, that people in the ecosystem of Bitcoin - an invention with the stated purpose of not having to trust a single central authority - will not trust central authorities. You might be convinced of technological superiority of core's approach (for the record: I am on the fence about this) but failing to realize this simple issue about trust isn't helping anyone and keeps fostering an unnecessary divide in the community. Is it really that hard to understand, that people are going to be skeptical of centrally mandated policies? Especially when they are coming from people who have been shown to engage in censorship and breaking promises, while being funded by the very financial institutions their product is officially meant to replace?

Honestly, the dogmatism and arrogance of (many vocal) core-supporters has been the biggest reason why I can't get behind the core/blockstream agenda. To be fair, you have always been polite about this.
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January 30, 2017, 12:04:46 PM

Someone took a risk and set their blocksize larger than 1mb.  It was a foolish thing to do with the current state of the blocksize debate, but it only hurt the miner who chose that setting. 

Isn't it the case that this was a *bug* in BU code, rather than the pool operator going gung-ho with larger block sizes?
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January 30, 2017, 12:32:11 PM

Someone took a risk and set their blocksize larger than 1mb.  It was a foolish thing to do with the current state of the blocksize debate, but it only hurt the miner who chose that setting. 

Isn't it the case that this was a *bug* in BU code, rather than the pool operator going gung-ho with larger block sizes?

AFAIK it was a bug. No need to sugar coat it.
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January 30, 2017, 01:14:08 PM

"the absence of CNY currency volatility may dampen the price of Bitcoin" -- Arthur Hayes, BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest @BitMEXdotcom
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January 30, 2017, 01:20:13 PM

"A one-off [CNY] devaluation during New Year gives China breathing room" -- Arthur Hayes, BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest @BitMEXdotcom - THIS may send Bitcoin price to the MOON!
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January 30, 2017, 01:39:26 PM

"the absence of CNY currency volatility may dampen the price of Bitcoin" -- Arthur Hayes, BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest @BitMEXdotcom

why?

with less chinese volatility people that complain about Bitcoin being manipulated by the chinese may be less afraid and enter the market

or just create another excuse about why bitcoin is a bad investment
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January 30, 2017, 02:25:19 PM

seems like chinese new year had no effect on bitcoin prices so just like I said nothing is certain with bitcoin, good thing I didn't short waiting for a dip to buy back cheaper.
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January 30, 2017, 02:38:32 PM

Fuck Bitcoin Unlimited
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January 30, 2017, 02:44:32 PM

"the absence of CNY currency volatility may dampen the price of Bitcoin" -- Arthur Hayes, BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest @BitMEXdotcom

why?

with less chinese volatility people that complain about Bitcoin being manipulated by the chinese may be less afraid and enter the market

or just create another excuse about why bitcoin is a bad investment

As far as I can understand position of Arthur Hayes it is because of the current pure speculative nature of Bitcoin.  Here is an excerpt:
"All of a sudden, the PBOC turned on the lights at the club. In response to pressure from regulators, Chinese exchanges ceased offering margin trading on January 11th. The very next day, XBTH17 entered backwardation. Existing loans were allowed to expire, but no new loans could be taken out.

Margin loans had 2 to 30 day terms. As loans expired, credit whales need to unwind their trades. That meant selling futures and buying spot with released CNY. This helped move the futures’ basis into backwardation.

The Fear Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD) surrounding what the PBOC would or wouldn’t do prompted speculators to short Bitcoin via futures. There was no more margin trading therefore futures were the only bearish instrument available. Even today, the PBOC has released no statement as to what policy actions will be undertaken as a result of their “investigations”.

In short:

Margin Book Unwind + FUD = Futures Backwardation"
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January 30, 2017, 02:56:51 PM

Oh gawd ... when did this place become infested with the BU idiots again?!! FFS.

It happens always when idiots short bitcoin and price goes the other way. They become bigblocktards just to cause noise in the community and eventually a price drop.
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January 30, 2017, 03:32:46 PM
Last edit: January 30, 2017, 05:02:35 PM by Torque

"the absence of CNY currency volatility may dampen the price of Bitcoin" -- Arthur Hayes, BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest @BitMEXdotcom

why?

with less chinese volatility people that complain about Bitcoin being manipulated by the chinese may be less afraid and enter the market

or just create another excuse about why bitcoin is a bad investment

Your first thought is correct.

But whale traders (*cough* exchange owners/miners *cough*) are now worried that without 100X margin trading to incite huge volatility, they won't make the profits that they are Accustomed ToTM. And without that, bitcoin becomes just another run-in-the-mill small-cap speculative investment like all the others.  Made up FUD wouldn't even work any more to significantly move the market. Miners would only get transaction fees.

All the shitty traders would have to migrate to shitty alt-coins to make any money. *shudder*

Aww waaah! Now only long term investors, merchants, and everyday users can benefit from Bitcoin.   Cry   Cry Whatever shall we do???

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