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Question: Sept. 21 Closing Price:
$0 - 3 (3.9%)
<$8,000 - 4 (5.2%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 1 (1.3%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 1 (1.3%)
$9,000-$9,500 - 2 (2.6%)
$9,500-$10,000 - 5 (6.5%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 13 (16.9%)
$10,500-$11,000 - 15 (19.5%)
$11,000-$11,500 - 17 (22.1%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 4 (5.2%)
>$12,000 - 7 (9.1%)
>$20,000 - 5 (6.5%)
Total Voters: 77

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21366099 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (106 posts by 21 users deleted.)
marcus_of_augustus
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February 11, 2017, 12:03:31 AM

Well, if it were me my first tweet would be APPROVED in very large and red letters and then I'd start tweeting away the various details, but I'm not a Winklevoss.

I agree there is something weird going on here. It seems like they want to telegraph that the ETF will go live before it does, without saying as much. I wonder what the implications are for the ETF if the pricing dislocation is too great if/when an "approved" news hits the markets?

Do they need to go out and buy $100 million at the market or have they somehow hedged in the option to buy at $1000, which is the price mentioned in their latest filing documents?
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Fakhoury
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February 11, 2017, 12:08:48 AM

Well, if it were me my first tweet would be APPROVED in very large and red letters and then I'd start tweeting away the various details, but I'm not a Winklevoss.

I agree there is something weird going on here. It seems like they want to telegraph that the ETF will go live before it does, without saying as much. I wonder what the implications are for the ETF if the pricing dislocation is too great if/when an "approved" news hits the markets?

Do they need to go out and buy $100 million at the market or have they somehow hedged in the option to buy at $1000, which is the price mentioned in their latest filing documents?

Thank God that I'm not the only one here sounding the ultimate crazy.

For your question brother, here is the answer

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1166428.msg17794291#msg17794291
Meuh6879
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February 11, 2017, 12:24:59 AM

You can't fight the futur.
And will brake the wall ... really, really hard the next time.




JayJuanGee
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February 11, 2017, 12:47:41 AM

I see we are going up again. PBOC together with OKCoin and Huobi will have to do something more to dump the price mmore than this. This is totally a trench warfare now. Only the strongest survive  Wink

$970 by the way

i have  a strange feeling something will do indeed and is on the horizon i don't like the charts this moment... this up bounce is not strong

What is your "strange feeling?"

What level of probabilities do you assign to up or down?


When you say that you are more inclined for down, are you influenced by your short (or your having had sold)  in your opinion?

I try to place my bets in both directions in order that I am neutral about either direction and to just judge the probabilities based on realities of the situation (rather than wishes or rather than positions that I may have taken), and it seems that there is a bit of tension to go up from here.. at least a bit of a upward bounce in the short term, no?

I mean we already experienced a considerable and intense increased volume attempting to push prices down.  Remember there where tens of thousands of coins dumped in a very short period of time in order to attempt to get prices to go down.  There were more than 13k coins dumped on Stamp alone in about 2 hours, and those attempts to dump and to drive prices down have only been so successful.  They have run into buying support and inabilities to get the prices to go lower, no?  , and there is a bit of pressure to go back up.. that is the sense that i am getting at the current time, as I type....

So maybe as I type I would place additional downwards at less likely than upwards.. maybe 45% or less for downwards, and 55% or more for upwards.. at least the short term. the next 1 to 3% of a price move in either direction.. of course further out, we may have a bit of a different dynamic that develops and we have to keep our ear to the situation (and yeah, we don't know if dumpers still have some coins in reserve that they are ready and willing to dump at these levels and based on current dynamics, even though it kind of seems that they may have used up a lot of their coins already, no?)


i am 50% 50% so what comes after will be the same result for me as before the 50% i sold at 950 euro kai bought back at 880 euro.
i have the feeling that more coins will be dumped at this level we are now. i can see that (not me....my feeeeeing Smiley ) happening tonight


I understand that quite a few folks engage in that kind of a strategy of selling large bundles of their BTC holdings in order to buy back cheaper, even after there has already been a considerable correction.

Regarding correction and our current place, we are currently talking about a correction that was about 17% with a bit more than half of that recovered... so maybe you could be right that we could have another down leg.. but I have too much insecurity to place too many BTC on such a bet - especially since I feel fairly decent about accumulating.. and I don't like running after any trains (how rare that has happened to me).

Anyhow, probably there are ways to make such a betting big(ger) strategy work, and maybe folks become less stressed out about such a strategy the more that such a strategy is practiced?
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February 11, 2017, 01:01:19 AM

This morning I thought: "Oh, the price evolution seems fairly stable after the dump. It could be even bullish. And there was no second Chinese dump."

But now I see the micro-uptrends are weaker every time - like outlined in the "Three dead kitten theory". So unfortunately I expect another dump coming in, probably this weekend. 850 is approximately the value where a reversal back to bullish territory could happen, but it could also go as low as 735-780 again.
Why the pessimism today? Most people get terrified when you mention the 800 range, and now you're telling them 700? Tongue

I see my first thoughts were superior to the ones I had when I wrote that post. The reason for my sudden pessimism was that I had seen this kind of pattern (lower highs of the micro-uptrends after a crash) multiple times and they were almost exclusively a bearish indicator.

But there seems to be a very bullish sentiment going on that is stronger than all Chinese dump attempts. We are decoupling from the PBOC-inducted dumps, it seems. Reading the last posts, I think it's speculation on the ETF event. But $3000+? I think they are crazy ... And what's gonna happen with the block size?
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February 11, 2017, 01:25:36 AM

You can't fight the futur.
And will brake the wall ... really, really hard the next time.








BTCTC+ $1000!! WEEEEEEEE!! :-D
JayJuanGee
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February 11, 2017, 01:44:24 AM

His posts pissed me off after a while. An educated (but incorrect) troll is not a good troll.

It wasn't his point of view that annoyed me, it was his complete and utter lack of interest in acknowledging any other point of view. When someone's that entrenched they should be given their own forum so they can talk to themselves as no one else has anything to offer them.

He was "above" all of you. Did you not know that? Dear dear

Actually, that was part of his problem, also.

Sure, he was nice enough and polite enough about matters - yet at the same time, he attempted a projection of real world status, rather than substance... so in that regard, some reliance on status really was a distraction from  his lack of material and meaningful substance.
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February 11, 2017, 02:27:40 AM

Wild theory: people getting their money off the Chinese exchanges and joining Bitstamp/Bitfinex/Kraken?
Western exchanges are approaching 1000$ with the Chinese stuck at lower prices.
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February 11, 2017, 03:38:47 AM

Wild theory: people getting their money off the Chinese exchanges and joining Bitstamp/Bitfinex/Kraken?
Western exchanges are approaching 1000$ with the Chinese stuck at lower prices.

that wild theory might explain this.

https://twitter.com/cnLedger/status/830244903032549376
Quote
Exchanges with "more normal" withdraw services are priced hundreds Yuan higher.
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February 11, 2017, 03:49:56 AM

Chinese exchanges stop withdraws and the market goes down by less than $100

Almost perfect
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February 11, 2017, 04:21:11 AM

Wild theory: people getting their money off the Chinese exchanges and joining Bitstamp/Bitfinex/Kraken?
Western exchanges are approaching 1000$ with the Chinese stuck at lower prices.
that wild theory might explain this.
Quote
Exchanges with "more normal" withdraw services are priced hundreds Yuan higher.

Might be true, but I blame the (understandable) dump on Huobi/Okcoin yesterday ("get out of inverseGoxOKcBTC") for the differences, not so much the buys at Bitstamp/Finex.

Chinese exchanges stop withdraws and the market goes down by less than $100

To be exact, only two of them stopped withdrawals, so it wasn't something very dramatic, but we know that in other times market would have reacted much more violently. That's positive - volatility is going down.
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February 11, 2017, 04:48:01 AM

The drop to 970 was the first I noticed.... Despite feeling deflated, I decided to NOT read this thread as part of me thought we'd drop to the 700s and didn't want to exacerbate my pain with Doooooomsayers!!!. I woke up to see we're still there. I haven't sold any I have no plans to. I'm a bit gutted I didn't buy a holiday with Bitcoin yesterday (which is still a plan... but now the holiday is more expensive).

Bitcoin exists to prevent the very problem that we are experiencing now: Someone else telling you what you can and can't do with your money! In reality this should be driving th price up. Not down!

True. We should be above 1030 within 5 days.

There was serious demand building and chinese aint the only ones buying.

Market seems to be on hold to see how serious the news really was

Get yourself some historic 3 digit coins before we headed to the 5 digit region.
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February 11, 2017, 05:20:45 AM

was that it? we are already above $1000 again!

to be honest i was expecting a much longer time below $1000 and playing around in $920-950 range. but it seems like price doesn't like staying low in the 3 digits anymore!
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February 11, 2017, 05:29:42 AM

3-Digits is from the past, only user MinorPool waiting for it. Adam was right with his predictions.
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February 11, 2017, 07:27:37 AM

The market strength is incredible. It looks like things could really begin to snowball and blow this wide open.
Time to cinch it up and hunker down.

The market's had so many dumps after FUD news that all the traders are getting hardened out to it. Each time China bans Bitcoin the dumps get smaller and briefer.
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February 11, 2017, 08:18:51 AM

It's not China anymore: according to CoinGecko Japan is paving the way now

Exchange              Pair   Price             Volume (BTC)   Volume %
Quoine              BTC/JPY   111,165 JPY          22.963                   19%
Okcoin              BTC/CNY   6,801 CNY             18.801                   16%
Bitfinex              BTC/USD   1,004 USD             18.689                   16%
Btcchina              BTC/CNY   6,800 CNY             12.502                   10%
Kraken              BTC/EUR   948 EUR             9.531                   8%
Bitstamp              BTC/USD   1,006 USD             9.340                   8%
Btc-e                      BTC/USD   993 USD             7.208                   6%
Quoine              BTC/USD   967 USD             4.391                   3%
Itbit                      BTC/USD   1,007 USD             3.489                   2%
Kraken              BTC/USD   1,012 USD             2.453                   2%

https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/trading_exchanges
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February 11, 2017, 08:53:30 AM

Wild theory: people getting their money off the Chinese exchanges and joining Bitstamp/Bitfinex/Kraken?
Western exchanges are approaching 1000$ with the Chinese stuck at lower prices.

that wild theory might explain this.

https://twitter.com/cnLedger/status/830244903032549376
Quote
Exchanges with "more normal" withdraw services are priced hundreds Yuan higher.

But these exchanges don't support CNY right? And it is the bitcoin withdrawals that are halted.
rjclarke2000
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February 11, 2017, 08:57:00 AM

800's soon






Can't stop watching that gif. Brutal
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February 11, 2017, 09:31:47 AM

800's soon





i really hope so i need to unload a lot of shitcoins
Lauda
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February 11, 2017, 10:11:14 AM



There's a great website to watch the price move up and down along with the roller-coaster guy: https://rollercoasterguy.github.io/
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