Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ErisDiscordia]

I've found poolminor to be quite credible over time yet I still like ya Jimbo. He's not going beartard, just calling the final run of the bulls in the near term with a resumption of the bull trend in some months. Gotta have some red dragons in the future to complete and relaunch the next epic bull run.

I own bitcoin and metals but I'd much rather prefer metals went up and bitcoin didn't because the odds of bitcoin being turned against us and co-opted by govt are much higher than not.  Here's another new predictable govt co-opting of crypto coming out of japan recently:

"Only approved virtual currencies by the authority are considered legitimate and can be traded, sold or promoted to public"

This means government now arbitrates what forks are valid and which are not, so even if you were pretending it was decentralized before, it's definitely not going to be with things like that adopted by national governments.  Laws like this do not mean the govt just plays judge on forks either, it means the govt will create their own fork and force you to use it. (hint: forced chain anchor)

People need to stop being morons and pretending like the govt isn't going to completely control every aspect of cryptocurrency in the endgame.  Every transaction will be traced with white and black lists and more regulation than has ever been seen on earth, aka a permissioned ledger.  The term is called "creeping fascism", when you trick someone into a system while slowly piling on the regulation one by one until it's a police state.  It's like willingly accepting their cash ban and complete control over all transactions.

You keep repeating how governments will control crypto and at the same time implying that they can't or won't control precious metals. This seems inconsistent.

[r0ach]

You keep repeating how governments will control crypto and at the same time implying that they can't or won't control precious metals. This seems inconsistent.

Stop playing dumb.  The overhead to monitor packets on a network or parse transactions on a blockchain is hundreds of orders of magnitude lower than creating a police state that can monitor every inch of space in the physical world for what people do there.  This is why governments aren't attempting to ban bitcoin whatsoever because you just make their job of controlling your life easier and cheaper by using it.  That is, unless someone makes bitcoin fungible by introducing anonymity, then governments won't like it anymore.

The last draw for me was two things in particular:  Coinbase asking me where my bitcoin is from, who are the addresses I'm sending my coins to, etc.  Then a friend made a large bet on a fight using bitcoin sent from Coinbase.  Coinbase apparently actively monitors all transactions and addresses already and said they're banning his account for participating in a gambling site.  If bitcoin is already such a police state while nobody even uses it, you need full blown down syndrome to want this thing to become mainstream.

A lot of you people just sit on your coins to try and profit and don't even use them.  The second you actually try to use them you're in for a shock.  I always knew this was the endgame that bitcoin would have eventually since it's not anonymous and all transactions are traced, I just thought it would be YEARS down the line.  Nope, the bitcoin police state is 100% in effect already.  It's like what that Aaaron Russo guy said 10+ years ago, the goal is to force people into a digital currency and then whoever does anything they don't like, they simply turn off/black list that wallet address - which is going to be associated to your real name with something like chain anchor.

[Karartma1]

Are they in for losing their credibility easily ?

I understand that it's only social media, but why they didn't wait for the hearing at the 11th then create that account unless, in a way or another, they are sure they will have the ETF operated ?!

I think we're all wondering about that. If the decision goes against them, their credibility will take a big hit, for sure.

Saying they'd have egg on their faces is an understatement. They'd be a laughingstock.

That's why I was wondering if they were privy to some inside information but not in a position to divulge it, or where it came from.

I guess there's not much we can do except wait and see what happens in March.

I have a simple reasoing on the matte: the US already handled lots of Bitcoins (seized coins from SR mostly). Why they should not keep a competitive advantage by giving a chance to a regulated Bitcoin ETF which bring some more taxes in?
I personally feel that this ETF has 85% chances of approval. 

[r0ach]

I personally feel that this ETF has 85% chances of approval. 

Other ETFs of much less complexity took longer and underwent more scrutiny, so if they approve this one, it basically means bitcoin is a trap.

[Denker]

Are they in for losing their credibility easily ?

I understand that it's only social media, but why they didn't wait for the hearing at the 11th then create that account unless, in a way or another, they are sure they will have the ETF operated ?!

I think we're all wondering about that. If the decision goes against them, their credibility will take a big hit, for sure.

Saying they'd have egg on their faces is an understatement. They'd be a laughingstock.

That's why I was wondering if they were privy to some inside information but not in a position to divulge it, or where it came from.

I guess there's not much we can do except wait and see what happens in March.

Mmhhh I don't know.
What if they try to hype the market with the certainty the ETF will not get approved, sell on top and then short the market.Fuck about credibility in that case.
A lot of money can be made.
Keep in mind all these guys are mostly in for making money. I doubt that even one of them is a true Bitcoin lover.Also the Winklevoss bros are only business men, 100%.

[r0ach]

Also the Winklevoss bros are only business men, 100%.

Well, one thing is for sure, they're either going to make a large amount of money or be holding a large bag.  I think their average buy-in price is around $100.  They would make a lot selling right now, but I'm sure people monitor their addresses and if they started to sell they would probably tank the price themselves.  This is one reason the ETF is important to them - it's their exit scheme.  If the ETF is rejected and they start to dump they will still make a decent amount, but not a stupendous amount since everyone else is going to be selling if they are.

[600watt]

Keep in mind all these guys are mostly in for making money. I doubt that even one of them is a true Bitcoin lover.Also the Winklevoss bros are only business men, 100%.

my guess is that this bitcoin thing is - if it gets mainstream traction - their only chance to dwarf zuckerbergs social media empire. they have got 100k btc. (worth $100mio) one must have some sympathy for the coin to keep so many, imho.

zuckerberg is worth $56 billion. lol, bitcoin has to 560fold for them to catch up. hm... long shot.  

[_nur]

seriously I don't know if it's a bull or bear trend now

what do you guys think?

[gentlemand]

Keep in mind all these guys are mostly in for making money.

Of course they are but you have to respect their commitment. They've been in it since 2012 and lord knows how much money they've burnt in pursuit of a singular vision shared by virtually no one when they got going. The vast majority of the brats here haven't been in it that long and don't even have the balls to put their lunch money in.

[swogerino]

Are they in for losing their credibility easily ?

I understand that it's only social media, but why they didn't wait for the hearing at the 11th then create that account unless, in a way or another, they are sure they will have the ETF operated ?!

I think we're all wondering about that. If the decision goes against them, their credibility will take a big hit, for sure.

Saying they'd have egg on their faces is an understatement. They'd be a laughingstock.

That's why I was wondering if they were privy to some inside information but not in a position to divulge it, or where it came from.

I guess there's not much we can do except wait and see what happens in March.

I have a simple reasoing on the matte: the US already handled lots of Bitcoins (seized coins from SR mostly). Why they should not keep a competitive advantage by giving a chance to a regulated Bitcoin ETF which bring some more taxes in?
I personally feel that this ETF has 85% chances of approval.  

If this ETF brings in taxes to the gov't then it will get approval in any country will and will pass.
What country in the world will not let themselves rake in free money from just having money sitting in securities?

[bitcoinvest]

was is the lesson we can have if ETF gets approved? that little time before that the price was manipulated to buy some cheap coins and after sell 2 times more about, if not more.

[GBattaglia]

Keep in mind all these guys are mostly in for making money. I doubt that even one of them is a true Bitcoin lover.Also the Winklevoss bros are only business men, 100%.

my guess is that this bitcoin thing is - if it gets mainstream traction - their only chance to dwarf zuckerbergs social media empire. they have got 100k btc. (worth $100mio) one must have some sympathy for the coin to keep so many, imho.

zuckerberg is worth $56 billion. lol, bitcoin has to 560fold for them to catch up. hm... long shot.  

^This.

For all the people who talk about Bitcoin being a global economic force and so on, they really need to put things in perspective. Bitcoin's market cap is at about $16,000,000,000 which is by averaging all coins at $1000. Now we all know that even if a fraction [say 1/4] of those coins were all sold off; the price would drop drastically. But lets look at the glass half full and say Bitcoin is worth $16Billion.

• AOL Bought Time Warner for $186 Billion.
• Vodafone Airtouch acquires Mannesmann – $185.1 Billion
• Pfizer Acquires Warner-Lambert – $87.3 Billion
• SBC Acquires AT&T – $83.1 Billion
• Exxon Acquires Mobil - $80 Billion

Or Microsoft purchased Lumia for $7.6 Billion which they just wrote off as a failure.


Bitcoin is chump change in the grand scheme of things.

[coin@coin]

Pain in the butt some chinese exchanges have closed withdrawals for a month or so. Hope that doesn't create too much negativity.
However BTC has been steadily hovering around 1000 USD so I think that it's positive.

[Lauda]

Now we all know that even if a fraction [say 1/4] of those coins were all sold off; the price would drop drastically.

Try selling 1/4 of the total stock of a company and see what would happen with it's market price.  

Bitcoin is chump change in the grand scheme of things.

That's just another sign of the underlying potential (price wise).

was is the lesson we can have if ETF gets approved? that little time before that the price was manipulated to buy some cheap coins and after sell 2 times more about, if not more.

You should just remain patient.

[GBattaglia]

Keep in mind all these guys are mostly in for making money. I doubt that even one of them is a true Bitcoin lover.Also the Winklevoss bros are only business men, 100%.

my guess is that this bitcoin thing is - if it gets mainstream traction - their only chance to dwarf zuckerbergs social media empire. they have got 100k btc. (worth $100mio) one must have some sympathy for the coin to keep so many, imho.

zuckerberg is worth $56 billion. lol, bitcoin has to 560fold for them to catch up. hm... long shot.  

^This.

For all the people who talk about Bitcoin being a global economic force and so on, they really need to put things in perspective. Bitcoin's market cap is at about $16,000,000,000 which is by averaging all coins at $1000. Now we all know that even if a fraction [say 1/4] of those coins were all sold off; the price would drop drastically. But lets look at the glass half full and say Bitcoin is worth $16Billion.

• AOL Bought Time Warner for $186 Billion.
• Vodafone Airtouch acquires Mannesmann – $185.1 Billion
• Pfizer Acquires Warner-Lambert – $87.3 Billion
• SBC Acquires AT&T – $83.1 Billion
• Exxon Acquires Mobil - $80 Billion

Or Microsoft purchased Lumia for $7.6 Billion which they just wrote off as a failure.


Bitcoin is chump change in the grand scheme of things.

Here. Even did some basic speculative calculations to put Bitcoin's real marketcap in perspective.

First 1/4 of BTC sold off at $1,000:  $4    Billion
Second 1/4 of BTC sold off at $700: $2.8 Billion
Third 1/4 of BTC sold off at $400:    $1.6 Billion
Fourth 1/4 of BTC sold off at $200:   $800 Thousand

Grand total market cap with these numbers of sell off depreciation: $9.2Billion. About the cost of buying a small failing smartphone manufacturer [Nokia].

[GBattaglia]

Now we all know that even if a fraction [say 1/4] of those coins were all sold off; the price would drop drastically.

Try selling 1/4 of the total stock of a company and see what would happen with it's market price.  

Bitcoin is chump change in the grand scheme of things.

That's just another sign of the underlying potential (price wise).

was is the lesson we can have if ETF gets approved? that little time before that the price was manipulated to buy some cheap coins and after sell 2 times more about, if not more.

You should just remain patient.

Yeah, a company sell off should have the same thing as Bitcoin's market cap. The problem is Bitcoin is not a company but is supposed to be looked at as a currency. Most people look at the $16Billion market cap and think that is the real worth of all Bitcoin in circulation, when in reality it is probably half that value as shown by the little break down I just did.

Now lets look at Bitcoin as a currency [and Bitcoin's use as a currency depends on its ability to make transactions]: Mastercard and Visa together can handle about 80,000 transactions per second, keep in mind those two probably only makeup about 80% of the market. Bitcoin handles about 3 transactions per second. Bitcoin can currently handle about 1/26,000 what Visa and Mastercard can. Or if we convert that into a decimal: 0.00003846153846153846

[Lauda]

Yeah, a company sell off should have the same thing as Bitcoin's market cap. The problem is Bitcoin is not a company but is supposed to be looked at as a currency. Most people look at the $16Billion market cap and think that is the real worth of all Bitcoin in circulation, when in reality it is probably half that value as shown by the little break down I just did.

Try selling off 1/4 Dollars into metal and other currencies and see what happens. This perspective is really weird and unnecessary IMO.

Grand total market cap with these numbers of sell off depreciation: $9.2Billion. About the cost of buying a small failing smartphone manufacturer [Nokia].

Why the market cap rush? It's obviously severely undervalued considering what it offers.

[_nur]

Keep in mind all these guys are mostly in for making money. I doubt that even one of them is a true Bitcoin lover.Also the Winklevoss bros are only business men, 100%.

my guess is that this bitcoin thing is - if it gets mainstream traction - their only chance to dwarf zuckerbergs social media empire. they have got 100k btc. (worth $100mio) one must have some sympathy for the coin to keep so many, imho.

zuckerberg is worth $56 billion. lol, bitcoin has to 560fold for them to catch up. hm... long shot. 

^This.

For all the people who talk about Bitcoin being a global economic force and so on, they really need to put things in perspective. Bitcoin's market cap is at about $16,000,000,000 which is by averaging all coins at $1000. Now we all know that even if a fraction [say 1/4] of those coins were all sold off; the price would drop drastically. But lets look at the glass half full and say Bitcoin is worth $16Billion.

• AOL Bought Time Warner for $186 Billion.
• Vodafone Airtouch acquires Mannesmann – $185.1 Billion
• Pfizer Acquires Warner-Lambert – $87.3 Billion
• SBC Acquires AT&T – $83.1 Billion
• Exxon Acquires Mobil - $80 Billion

Or Microsoft purchased Lumia for $7.6 Billion which they just wrote off as a failure.


Bitcoin is chump change in the grand scheme of things.

how about australia stock exchange daily trading volume as comparison in term of $

[GBattaglia]

Yeah, a company sell off should have the same thing as Bitcoin's market cap. The problem is Bitcoin is not a company but is supposed to be looked at as a currency. Most people look at the $16Billion market cap and think that is the real worth of all Bitcoin in circulation, when in reality it is probably half that value as shown by the little break down I just did.

Try selling off 1/4 Dollars into metal and other currencies and see what happens. This perspective is really weird and unnecessary IMO.

Grand total market cap with these numbers of sell off depreciation: $9.2Billion. About the cost of buying a small failing smartphone manufacturer [Nokia].

Why the market cap rush? It's obviously severely undervalued considering what it offers.

Is it really severely undervalued? Look at my post above with the transaction bandwidth edit. How is Bitcoin severely undervalued without diving into speculative growth? Bitcoin's primary draw is as an investment tool for speculation. How many of you here regularly use Bitcoin as a currency to buy and sell goods for?

[Lauda]

Is it really severely undervalued? Look at my post above with the transaction bandwidth edit. How is Bitcoin severely undervalued without diving into speculative growth? Bitcoin's primary draw is as an investment tool for speculation. How many of you here regularly use Bitcoin as a currency to buy and sell goods for?

Bitcoin isn't just a currency, and that's the whole point of it. If you think that this is all there is to it, then you don't truly understand where the underlying value stems from. How many people regularly use Gold in a similar fashion?