A "larger ongoing downward correction"? Larger than $500? Good luck.
Yes, I speculate a correction larger than $500. Somewhere in around the range of $500 and $1000 in fact.
The correction could and should continue downwards quite a bit more, and ATHs will not be reached again in a matter of days... more likely a matter of months... and probably even more likely a year+. (those timeframes are guesstimated from Bitcoin's market history... where it reached previous ATHs then corrected itself)
Remember the last significant correction, on May 12-13?
It took "a matter of days" (5 to be exact) to reach a new ATH.
May 12th to May 13th was not a "significant correction". Expand the graph out for the past 1.5 years. There have only been a few minor corrections, and May 12-13th is not even close to being one of them.
"Probably even more likely a year+. (those timeframes are guesstimated from Bitcoin's market history... where it reached previous ATHs then corrected itself)"?
What "Bitcoin's market history" are you referring to? The bubbles of 2011 and 2013?
Don't forget that in those bubbles the price rose by more than 1000% in weeks, not years.
Not exactly. Weeks is a bit of an exaggeration. More like Months. The slow build ups to the bubbles consisted of at least year+ bull markets.
The bubble of 2011 built up from May 2010 ($0.01) through July 2011 ($31)
That is 310,000% in a little over a year.
The bubble of 2013 built up from December 2011 ($2.00) through November 2013 ($1,242)
That is 62,100% in a little over two years.
The bubble popped approximately 80% lower (in percentage of appreciation) than it did the previous bubble.
Now, I am speculating we have experienced the bubble of 2017 which built up from March 2015 ($200) through May 2017 ($2,760)
That is 1,380% in a little over two years.
The bubble popped approximately 92.8% lower (in percentage of appreciation) than it did the previous bubble.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Prices_and_value_historyNow, as to your reasoning that the Bitcoin value has grown at a smaller percentage than previous bubbles, so therefore this cannot possibly be a bubble:
Each future bubble will pop at a lower percentage of appreciation than the bubble before it, until it eventually resembles the appreciation of other investment types. The statistical data thus far supports this rationale (see above). Why does each bubble pop at a lower percentage than the last you ask? There are at least two reasons:
1. As the value of Bitcoin grows over time, more capital is needed to push it into bubble territory. It is unrealistic to think that the amount of capital will flow into Bitcoin to reach the same percentage of the previous bubble, because that would mean exponential capital influx. At some point the amount of capital that would need to be injected into buying Bitcoin will dry up. It seems we reached this threshold for the time being, but as Bitcoin becomes more and more popular this threshold will rise with each bubble, which allows for new all time highs. Yet, this threshold will remain limited.
2. Profit taking will be less and less (as far as percentage) with each and every bubble. It is a numbers game. As more and more people invest in Bitcoin, it is more likely that a larger amount of individuals will be happy with making X% less than the previous bubble. 1,380% in a little over two years is still an insane amount of profit for an investment, and newcomers are not used to that kind of value appreciation from other investment avenues. This percentage could still drop much lower, and a bubble could still occur. I predict that due to game theory, this appreciation percentage will drop lower and lower, until it resembles that appreciation of other investments- like an investment in the stock market or in real estate. At that point an investment in Bitcoin will be rather bland and boring, like investing in the stock market.
If you think all bubbles pop similarly to previous bubbles, then that means the next bubble will pop when Bitcoin is worth:
$124,000 per Bitcoin (based off the 2013 bubble appreciation percentage)
or $620,000 per Bitcoin (based off the 2011 bubble appreciation percentage)
Don't those valuations seem a little unrealistic to you in the near term?
All this correction has proved is that this current bull market is not a bubble.
On the contrary, nothing is proven yet. Not my speculation- nor yours. You are making objective proclamations based off of subjective speculation. At least I can admit that my opinion is speculation...
It seems to me like you're hoping for a much lower price to buy in. Wishful thinking will get you nowhere.
Of course I am... isn't everyone?!
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