Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[AlcoHoDL]

We are all gonna die!

No, we're going to live, and being poor we'll suffer more...
And then we'll die too...

[1715243991]

1715243991

[1715243991]

1715243991

[600watt]

We are all gonna die!

No, we're going to live, and being poor we'll suffer more...
And then we'll die too...

imagine price would drop to 5k now. that was the moment in dec 2013 when the original "I hodl my btc" thread/meme was born. (when it dropped to the 400 region). well, actually price has to hit 12k first. 

[HairyMaclairy]

Looks like I need to go back to work. Anyone hiring?

 

Do you have any marketable skills ?

[Meuh6879]

[AlcoHoDL]

My wet dream would be Satoshi Nakamoto dumping his millions of BCH and BTG for the real Bitcoin.

Where is the man anyway?

And is this transaction his?

https://blockchain.info/tx/29a3efd3ef04f9153d47a990bd7b048a4b2d213daaa5fb8ed670fb85f13bdbcf

Come on Satoshi, save us!

[JayJuanGee]

We are all gonna die!

No, we're going to live, and being poor we'll suffer more...
And then we'll die too...

imagine price would drop to 5k now. that was the moment in dec 2013 when the original "I hodl my btc" thread/meme was born. (when it dropped to the 400 region). well, actually price has to hit 12k first. 

Sometimes when BTC prices are moving a lot, I have some difficulties honing in on my thoughts about price direction.

After we had gotten through our $6,800 to $7,800 resistance range, I had suggested that $9600 to $13400 would be the next resistance range  - but surely a bit broad and amorphous to consider such a large range.

Here's my current tentative honing in:

As I type the ATH on bitstamp is $9,721, and currently, we are correcting in the $9,300 to $9,500 arena.

Based on how the BTC price seems to be approaching $10k.. and kind of hesitating in the sub-$10k arena, I am thinking that BTC prices have a pretty decent odds of breaking above $10k in the coming day(s), perhaps in the 65% range, and then once we break above $10k, then there is likely going to be a 15% to 25% blow off of price movements above $10k.. perhaps with similar kinds of probabilities... so that would bring us to a range of $11,500 to $12,500-ish.

I cannot really see decent chances of breaking above that 15% to 25% range without some kind of meaningful price correction approaching 40% or more, and then we would have to see how quickly the BTC prices were to recover from such a decent-sized downwards correction before making the next call.

If we break above $13k on this particular price go-around then we will likely have very decent odds for a bit more UP prices from there.. perhaps in the 30% or more range above $13k, which would likely be in the $16k to $19k territory, but I really have a tough time foreseeing any kind of break above $13k in this go around and especially before some kind of meaningful downward BTC price correction that would occur just prior to reaching $13k.

That's my tentative working theory, that I just made up a few minutes ago.   

[bitserve]

[...]

That's my tentative working theory, that I just made up a few minutes ago.   

Great! But I prefer to just stick to the plan that was devised by this mastermind:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/

[Elwar]

Looks like I need to go back to work. Anyone hiring?

 

Do you have any marketable skills ?

I did last week but I think I've been out of the work force too long.

[fragout]

We are all gonna die!

No, we're going to live, and being poor we'll suffer more...
And then we'll die too...

imagine price would drop to 5k now. that was the moment in dec 2013 when the original "I hodl my btc" thread/meme was born. (when it dropped to the 400 region). well, actually price has to hit 12k first. 

Sometimes when BTC prices are moving a lot, I have some difficulties honing in on my thoughts about price direction.

After we had gotten through our $6,800 to $7,800 resistance range, I had suggested that $9600 to $13400 would be the next resistance range  - but surely a bit broad and amorphous to consider such a large range.

Here's my current tentative honing in:

As I type the ATH on bitstamp is $9,721, and currently, we are correcting in the $9,300 to $9,500 arena.

Based on how the BTC price seems to be approaching $10k.. and kind of hesitating in the sub-$10k arena, I am thinking that BTC prices have a pretty decent odds of breaking above $10k in the coming day(s), perhaps in the 65% range, and then once we break above $10k, then there is likely going to be a 15% to 25% blow off of price movements above $10k.. perhaps with similar kinds of probabilities... so that would bring us to a range of $11,500 to $12,500-ish.

I cannot really see decent chances of breaking above that 15% to 25% range without some kind of meaningful price correction approaching 40% or more, and then we would have to see how quickly the BTC prices were to recover from such a decent-sized downwards correction before making the next call.

If we break above $13k on this particular price go-around then we will likely have very decent odds for a bit more UP prices from there.. perhaps in the 30% or more range above $13k, which would likely be in the $16k to $19k territory, but I really have a tough time foreseeing any kind of break above $13k in this go around and especially before some kind of meaningful downward BTC price correction that would occur just prior to reaching $13k.

That's my tentative working theory, that I just made up a few minutes ago.   

Interesting but is this based on normal market behaviour?
 As we are now in uncharted territory and there is a shitload of new money coming in to the eco system. Even some of my friends who continued for years to say bitcoin was a joke cant take the pain anymore and are jumping in. Look at the numbers on coinbase. Also there has to be a lot of big money players who are coming in. Supply hasn't changed so, the price has really no option but to rise.
Of course the panic sell will be just as fast when it inevitably happens but it should need some extra horrible shock news to trigger it this time i feel.

[JayJuanGee]

[...]

That's my tentative working theory, that I just made up a few minutes ago.  

Great! But I prefer to just stick to the plan that was devised by this mastermind:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/

You really believe that?  And, it already seems to be wrong, no?   It does not show that we had two decent sized corrections since August.. first was a 40% correction in mid September and the second one was a 30% correction, a couple of weeks ago.

Also, it seems to be too bullish on the upside... You really think that buying support will sustain those kinds of upwards price movements... sure it is possible, but does not seem very likely, right?

Maybe I am just too skittish?  

By the way, I do appreciate the punchline (without necessarily getting caught up on on the particulars) of a bubble that is somewhere between $40k and $100k.. That sounds kind of reasonable and within reach, even within a kind of end of 2018-ish time range.

[bitserve]

[...]

That's my tentative working theory, that I just made up a few minutes ago.  

Great! But I prefer to just stick to the plan that was devised by this mastermind:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/

You really believe that?  And, it already seems to be wrong, no?   It does not show that we had two decent sized corrections since August.. first was a 40% correction in mid September and the second one was a 30% correction, a couple of weeks ago.

Also, it seems to be too bullish on the upside... You really think that buying support will sustain those kinds of upwards price movements... sure it is possible, but does not seem very likely, right?

Maybe I am just too skittish?  

I want to believe

But now, look closely that chart and tell me what price was "predicted" for 27-11.... Scary ain't it?

P.S.: Yeah, that $100.000 for summer '18 looks "a bit" bullish to me... but what do I know!

[HairyMaclairy]

Looks like I need to go back to work. Anyone hiring?

 

Do you have any marketable skills ?

I did last week but I think I've been out of the work force too long.

Due to the crash I’m starting a soup kitchen for bitcoin hodlers.  Need people willing to work for food. 

[Wekkel]

Bullish or too bullish aside, the trend upwards has shown increasing acceleration the last years. So a monstrous blow off top would not be extraordinary. The difficulty is in the price range. Looking at historical extremes (like in the BETI indicator thread), the top mania point could be placed (in comparison) at $41k currently.

So no, I wouldn’t get out too soon. Learned that from 2013.

[JayJuanGee]

[...]

That's my tentative working theory, that I just made up a few minutes ago.  

Great! But I prefer to just stick to the plan that was devised by this mastermind:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/

You really believe that?  And, it already seems to be wrong, no?   It does not show that we had two decent sized corrections since August.. first was a 40% correction in mid September and the second one was a 30% correction, a couple of weeks ago.

Also, it seems to be too bullish on the upside... You really think that buying support will sustain those kinds of upwards price movements... sure it is possible, but does not seem very likely, right?

Maybe I am just too skittish?  

I want to believe

But now, look closely that chart and tell me what price was "predicted" for 27-11.... Scary ain't it?

P.S.: Yeah, that $100.000 for summer '18 looks "a bit" bullish to me... but what do I know!

Surely, I try to prepare for either price direction, but yeah with recent exorbitant price rises, and even with our two recent BTC price corrections of 40% and 30%, I still feel like I am probably generating a bit more cash, and that we cannot sustain some upwards without further BTC price corrections. 

I try to adjust my BTC strategy in a way that works, even if whatever happens turns into something that is a bit beyond expectations, and surely we know bitcoin is capable of quite a bit of overshooting, yet some of us HODLers are kind of feeling like smartie pants right now, too, because we had not been afraid to buy earlier and we have not been shaken of our coins nor distracted into alts (or at least not in any major way).

And, sure some of the fairly bullish predictions are turning out to either be right or within a reasonable range of being right.  Surely this BTC price battle is not over, even though it continues to appear strongly suggestive that bulls are continuing to win and have decent odds in the near term, yet I get afraid to attempt to predict too many steps in advance of our current location.

[bitserve]

Looks like I need to go back to work. Anyone hiring?

 

Do you have any marketable skills ?

I did last week but I think I've been out of the work force too long.

Due to the crash I’m starting a soup kitchen for bitcoin hodlers.  Need people willing to work for food.  

That will be problematic when our fellow bigblockers insist that we all need to eat the soup with their useless forks.

[Globb0]

 Even some of my friends who continued for years to say bitcoin was a joke cant take the pain anymore and are jumping in. Look at the numbers on coinbase.

Is that a bit worrying? once all the noobs give up and enter then the trap could be sprung.

Buy the rumour sell the news!

[HairyMaclairy]

Looks like I need to go back to work. Anyone hiring?

 

Do you have any marketable skills ?

I did last week but I think I've been out of the work force too long.

Due to the crash I’m starting a soup kitchen for bitcoin hodlers.  Need people willing to work for food. 

That will be problematic when our fellow bigblockers insist that we all need to eat the soup with their forks.

My wife is looking a bit concerned as I am choking with laughter.  Anyone know how to do the Heimlich?

[JayJuanGee]

Bullish or too bullish aside, the trend upwards has shown increasing acceleration the last years. So a monstrous blow off top would not be extraordinary. The difficulty is in the price range. Looking at historical extremes (like in the BETI indicator thread), the top mania point could be placed (in comparison) at $41k currently.

So no, I wouldn’t get out too soon. Learned that from 2013.

All of us better have learned by now, that even if we are acting in extremes, we better not be selling more than 80% of our bitcoin stash at any point, and surely, I consider even selling 50% to be quite extreme because I deal with much smaller increments, and fuck I have been selling since $250, and currently I am at about 89% bitcoin and 11% fiat.. and fuck the fiat amount is seeming like a whole hell-of-a lot of money, so surely I would not mind using some of that fiat to buy some more bitcoin.. but yeah, there could be a bit of a problem if we were to shoot straight up to $41k within a few months, and I suppose I might be tempted to sell a bit more bitcoin, even though i have plenty of fiat, too... so yeah, it is a kind of dilemma that hopefully resolves itself and we can feel like we did the right thing for our own set of circumstances that is not too rash.

[Rosewater Foundation]

I've learned nothing.
Good morning America! When moon?

[JayJuanGee]

Looks like I need to go back to work. Anyone hiring?

 

Do you have any marketable skills ?

I did last week but I think I've been out of the work force too long.

Due to the crash I’m starting a soup kitchen for bitcoin hodlers.  Need people willing to work for food. 

That will be problematic when our fellow bigblockers insist that we all need to eat the soup with their forks.

My wife is looking a bit concerned as I am choking with laughter.  Anyone know how to do the Heimlich?

No wonder you have some of these conservative toppie bouts, you got a wifey bossing you around.