Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[RealMachasm]

So who is considered an early adopter these days? Is it still people who bought in 2010, or is it now people who bought in 2012 or 2013? And dont give me that bull answer of we're all still early adopters.

 Textbook answer:

Early Adopters (13.5%) – This is the second fastest category of individuals who adopt an innovation. These individuals have the highest degree of opinion leadership among the other adopter categories. Early adopters are typically younger in age, have a higher social status, have more financial lucidity, advanced education, and are more socially forward than late adopters. More discrete in adoption choices than innovators. Realize judicious choice of adoption will help them maintain central communication position

~Rogers 1962 5th ed, p. 283

 literally

 

I guess that means the more people that come on board, the more early adopters we get. Sep 2013 for me.

[1715475011]

1715475011

[1715475011]

1715475011

[1715475011]

1715475011

[JayJuanGee]

So who is considered an early adopter these days? Is it still people who bought in 2010, or is it now people who bought in 2012 or 2013? And dont give me that bull answer of we're all still early adopters.

Don't give me that bear framework for your presumptive question that assumes that mass adoption has either occurred or is close to occuring, when the fact of the matter is that we are no fucking place even near mass adoption.

Therefore, the "bull answer" that you don't want to hear is the correct answer.

Sure, there are levels of "early adopter,"  and there is relativity, so someone who got in at $10k is more of an early adopter than someone who got in at $15k, so yeah, let's agree that it is way fucking better to have gotten in at $10 or $100 or $500 or $1,000 than it is to have gotten in at $10k, or $15k.. but whatever, even those who got in at $10k are currently more than 50% in the green... so they have a bit of a cushion, and perhaps we will never see 4 digits again, perhaps?  

 I do have a sense that we will see 4 digits again, but gosh, the way things are going it remains possible that we won't.... so let's see, let's see.

I will concede that I devolved into a conversation of price rather than timeline or even making assessments of how much penetration the BTC market has made, yet I think that part of my devolution has to do with the lack of proper framing of your question and the wrong in-built assumptions, so in that regard,  when you have less than 1% of world adoption in bitcoin (which seems to be where we are at, currently), you are stretching the subject matter to be either asserting or assuming that mass adoption has either already taken place or is in any kind of close proximity..... and your question about early adoption-hood, is still very much in the works, and like jimbo said above, we are likely still in early adoption, but we are experiencing some mass awareness, even though few of the fucks have actually begun to buy into bitcoin.


So, TLDR:::::   


  GET a fucking GRIP, TERA-beara!!!!        

[gembitz]

So who is considered an early adopter these days? Is it still people who bought in 2010, or is it now people who bought in 2012 or 2013? And dont give me that bull answer of we're all still early adopters.

I consider those in before June 2011 to be innovators and anyone from then until very recently to be early adopters.

We're just crossing over into the early mainstream phase.

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the notion that we're still somewhat early adopters, although the events of the last few weeks seem to indicate an increased awareness worldwide. Mainstream adoption is just beginning IMO.

There's no clear line, just an ongoing transition.

early adopters got in below $150 weeee

[bones261]

So who is considered an early adopter these days? Is it still people who bought in 2010, or is it now people who bought in 2012 or 2013? And dont give me that bull answer of we're all still early adopters.

Don't give me that bear framework for your presumptive question that assumes that mass adoption has either occurred or is close to occuring, when the fact of the matter is that we are no fucking place even near mass adoption.

Therefore, the "bull answer" that you don't want to hear is the correct answer.

Sure, there are levels of "early adopter,"  and there is relativity, so someone who got in at $10k is more of an early adopter than someone who got in at $15k, so yeah, let's agree that it is way fucking better to have gotten in at $10 or $100 or $500 or $1,000 than it is to have gotten in at $10k, or $15k.. but whatever, even those who got in at $10k are currently more than 50% in the green... so they have a bit of a cushion, and perhaps we will never see 4 digits again, perhaps?   I do have a sense that we will see 4 digits again, but gosh, the way things are going it remains possible that we won't.... so let's see, let's see.

Finally, when you have less than 1% of world adoption in bitcoin, you are stretching the subject matter to be either asserting or assuming that mass adoption has either already taken place or is in any kind of close proximity...


GET a fucking GRIP, TERA-beara!!!!        

Oh please. We all know this will never get mass adoption. It's nerd money. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1mRG2oAQhso

[windjc]

So who is considered an early adopter these days? Is it still people who bought in 2010, or is it now people who bought in 2012 or 2013? And dont give me that bull answer of we're all still early adopters.

Anyone that gets in below $10k is an early adopter. Crytpo market will be a multi trillion dollar market one day. $10k for a BTC will be considered early adopter, even if Bitcoin dies in the future and is replaced by a difference currency.

[JayJuanGee]

So who is considered an early adopter these days? Is it still people who bought in 2010, or is it now people who bought in 2012 or 2013? And dont give me that bull answer of we're all still early adopters.

[edited out]


GET a fucking GRIP, TERA-beara!!!!        

Oh please. We all know this will never get mass adoption. It's nerd money. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1mRG2oAQhso

Ahahahahaha..

You are kind of making my point, bones, and that is currently bitcoin is in a much smaller niche, and it is slowly expanding out to additional folks, but we are still quite below 1% world-wide adoption.

[pfrtlpfmpf]

So who is considered an early adopter these days? Is it still people who bought in 2010, or is it now people who bought in 2012 or 2013? And dont give me that bull answer of we're all still early adopters.

Anyone that gets in below $10k is an early adopter. Crytpo market will be a multi trillion dollar market one day. $10k for a BTC will be considered early adopter, even if Bitcoin dies in the future and is replaced by a difference currency.

 this !
and i stand by it: I will eat one of my two dicks, just don´t say when !

[HairyMaclairy]

Uptrend on the 15s.  Shall we throw a bit of a shindig before futures trading starts Sunday 5pm Central time?

[realr0ach]

This forum used to have smart people on it.  Now all I see are people regurgitating Andreas Antonopolous propaganda when the guy is like a poor man's Max Keiser pump and dumper.  Bitcoin has a recursive price floor based on it's own demand via hashrate.  This means it's literally designed from the ground up to always be nothing more than a speculative pump and dump when the price floor can change by orders of magnitude in a small time span either upwards or downwards.  So no, it's not possible to always be an "early adopter" when the price floor can vaporize at any second.  This is one reason long targeting was likely left in instead of fast targeting, just a half ass attempt at a workaround, but it doesn't really solve anything, just makes a chain freeze more likely.

[TERA2]

When I joined, the early adopters were those in 2010 who had already made 1000 times gains. The early adopter status is based on where they are compared to the present, not where they are compared to the future. However, even if you were to make it about the future, that means there would have to be another 1000 times gains from here on into the future for noobs to be early adopters. That would put the target price at $15,000,000, with a market cap of $300 trillion equal to 5 times all of the world's monetary instruments.

You need to revise your definition of a bear. A bear is not someone who predicts anything less than the moon and stars in a jiffy.

[HairyMaclairy]

At $300 trillion, the market cap would be equal to 8% of the current market cap of financial instruments.  Bitcoin is a financial instrument. 

But no one is claiming you need 1,000x return to be an early adopter.  Returns and adoption phase do not have to be correlated. 

[TERA2]

I dont know where you get the figure that the worlds monetary instruments sums 3.75 quadrillion. The figure I got was 60T. However, would bitcoin even be equal to whatever this number is? I ask because this number is based on the fractional reserve banking system where debt is money and there 10 different copies representing the same money. Like a loan on a future on a stock representing mortages, etc..i and it was hoped the bitcoin would get rid of this.

[Dabs]

I consider those in before June 2011 to be innovators and anyone from then until very recently to be early adopters.

What's with that particular month / year? June 2011?

This forum used to have smart people on it.  Now all I see are people regurgitating Andreas Antonopolous propaganda ...

This is one reason long targeting was likely left in instead of fast targeting, just a half ass attempt at a workaround, but it doesn't really solve anything, just makes a chain freeze more likely.

Are you saying Andreas Antonopolous is wrong? Are you also saying the core devs, including Satoshi was mistaken in implementing long targeting in the client software? Are all these fast block fast adjusting coins any better?

[bitserve]

When I joined, the early adopters were those in 2010 who had already made 1000 times gains. The early adopter status is based on where they are compared to the present, not where they are compared to the future. However, even if you were to make it about the future, that means there would have to be another 1000 times gains from here on into the future for noobs to be early adopters. That would put the target price at $15,000,000, with a market cap of $300 trillion equal to 5 times all of the world's monetary instruments.

You need to revise your definition of a bear. A bear is not someone who predicts anything less than the moon and stars in a jiffy.

I think you are using wrong the definition of an early adopter. It doesn't even have anything to do with having invested nor having any stratospheric returns. It just your place in the adoption curve of an specific technology.

Would you consider Andreas Antonopolous an early adopter? I would say it is for sure, but it doesn't fit your gains criteria. Well no, in fact he was not an early adopter, but an innovator.

Anyone using Bitcoin from 2013 is for sure an early adopter. I would add 2014, 2015, 2016 too, as I don't think the adoption level increased significantly -maybe even dropped-. Up to 2012 I would call them innovators. 2017 is debatable, but most probably early adopters too.

That said, it is extremely hard for me to imagine another 1000x rise IN PRICE. Even a 100x seems doubtful. But I can see an increase of ADOPTION of 100x and 1000x easily some time in the future even if the price stabilizes.

P.S.: And anyone in the early 10% of the adoption timeline is without doubt an early adopter (or an innovator for the first 1-3%).

[HairyMaclairy]

Looks like 4 quadrillion is the high estimate.

https://www.rt.com/op-edge/325982-derivatives-toxic-instrument-review/

Personally I need far far less than that to achieve my goals. 

[bitserve]

This forum used to have smart people on it.  Now all I see are people regurgitating Andreas Antonopolous propaganda ...

This is one reason long targeting was likely left in instead of fast targeting, just a half ass attempt at a workaround, but it doesn't really solve anything, just makes a chain freeze more likely.

Are you saying Andreas Antonopolous is wrong? Are you also saying the core devs, including Satoshi was mistaken in implementing long targeting in the client software? Are all these fast block fast adjusting coins any better?

In fact the long time for dificulty retarget is mostly needed as a safeguard against network splits (either intentional or unintentional).

[Dabs]

Up to 2012 I would call them innovators.

That said, it is extremely hard for me to imagine another 1000x rise IN PRICE. Even a 100x seems doubtful. But I can see an increase of ADOPTION of 100x and 1000x easily some time in the future even if the price stabilizes.

I bought my first bitcoin in 2012. I don't have much today, because like some others, I spent most of it. In between then and now, I earned and spent. What does that make me?

100x seems to me to still be possible but over a longer time frame, maybe another 10 years, which isn't so bad. It might even be sooner than that according to several other people.

If you have 10 bitcoins today, and just hodl it at least 10 years, you might be looking at a million USD each. Not extremely wealthy, but considerably more comfortable than today. The trick is to not touch it. Which is difficult for some of us here who have no other source of income.

I haven't been employed for about 3 or 4 years now.

[RejectedBanana]

Can you explain how "just adoption" justifies a price increase of 2000% within a few months? Adoption does not just suddenly jump from horizontal to straight lines and and happen all at once in a 2000% spike. It is more like a smooth logarithmic curve of a few percent per day. So if it jumps too much that means it is overbought by traders.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/04/the-100-year-march-of-technology-in-1-graph/255573/

[TERA2]

That all looks like a slow controlled rise over 15 to 30 years to me. Not 2 months. Also there is a single up phase and not a staircase.

[bitserve]

Up to 2012 I would call them innovators.

That said, it is extremely hard for me to imagine another 1000x rise IN PRICE. Even a 100x seems doubtful. But I can see an increase of ADOPTION of 100x and 1000x easily some time in the future even if the price stabilizes.

I bought my first bitcoin in 2012. I don't have much today, because like some others, I spent most of it. In between then and now, I earned and spent. What does that make me?

100x seems to me to still be possible but over a longer time frame, maybe another 10 years, which isn't so bad. It might even be sooner than that according to several other people.

If you have 10 bitcoins today, and just hodl it at least 10 years, you might be looking at a million USD each. Not extremely wealthy, but considerably more comfortable than today. The trick is to not touch it. Which is difficult for some of us here who have no other source of income.

I haven't been employed for about 3 or 4 years now.

The crazy thing is that unless the (price) increasing rate we have had in 2017 doesn't drop soon.... someone with 10BTC would by millionaire in less than one year from now.... by end of next summer to be more precise.

Not saying that is gonna happen though. What do I know... My target was less than this price for the next halving. Happy times

And, you started using Bitcoin in 2012 so I would consider you an innovator, no matter how rich or not you are now.