Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[criptix]

How does btc futures arbitrage work, if a btc future is a limitless imaginary cash settled game that cant leave the account of the owner? Its like betting on horses. Im less bullish on this after learning how it works. The public isnt really getting exposure to bitcoin at all.

Its actually a way to keep all the traders OUT of the real bitcoin ecosystem, and dumping billions of imaginary bitcoins for them to hold instead, so we have less real market cap. bearish

Future Contracts Arbitrage 101:

https://blog.bitmex.com/how-to-arbitrage-bitcoin-futures-vs-spot/

https://austeritysucks.com/swapmans-futures-arbitrage-walkthrough.html

This is on Bitmex which is bitcoin settled, CBOE and CME will be cash settled.

The arb process is the same, only that in the end you will get $ instead of bitcoins (which is better for fiat people, because they gonna save a bit regarding fees).

[1714465917]

1714465917

[1714465917]

1714465917

[1714465917]

1714465917

[spiderbrain]

April 16th 2013. When this thread started. The olden days....chart shows BTC at $67.43

The mind boggles.....

*just to add a bit of clarity to this roller coaster ride since*


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg1858442#msg1858442


sigh....

Oh, you got me all nostalgic!

[orpington]

price explosion soon.

Brace yourselves accordingly.

[ghandi]

Yeah, we need to start to correct the correction. Upwards of course

[600watt]

the silence of the lambos.

[HairyMaclairy]

WHOA!!

price = current year!!!

I took a trip down memory lane way back to May 2017.

[RayX12]

Look like everything is on hold until traders realize that the futures market has no effect on price.  Maybe some time later when leveraging is increased from 2.2X to 100X there could be incentive to manipulate the markets.  For now I think the accumulation will continue.  25K, 50K soon..

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Look like everything is on hold until traders realize that the futures market has no effect on price.  Maybe some time later when leveraging is increased from 2.2X to 100X there could be incentive to manipulate the markets.  For now I think the accumulation will continue.  25K, 50K soon..

Yeah I found it quite peculiar that people seem to care that much about the futures. I had to double check to make sure that I didn't miss something, but there's just no reason why futures should matter to Bitcoin other than creating more interest and hence fortifying a bullish signal. Can't really expect much sanity from such a massive gold rush though I suppose.

[Rosewater Foundation]

Ok I’m calling bottom for today.

Eastern standard time? Tomorrow is 20 minutes from now.

Well that was the bottom for the next 12 hours no matter what time zone you are in, how about that?

So I can sleep late. Sweet!

Sweet dreams don’t let the gold bugs bite

Why not? Gold can be fun too.

Too heavy.

[HairyMaclairy]

Arent you supposed to be asleep ?

[Rosewater Foundation]

Arent you supposed to be asleep ?

I had to pee.

[HairyMaclairy]

Go back to bed you lazy fuck !

[MadAndHoldersPattern]

Look like everything is on hold until traders realize that the futures market has no effect on price.  Maybe some time later when leveraging is increased from 2.2X to 100X there could be incentive to manipulate the markets.  For now I think the accumulation will continue.  25K, 50K soon..

There's no incentive for "manipulators" to manipulate the price down. They can profit taking a long position equally, it doesn't mater for them whether it goes up or down. Them buying a lot of coins so they could dump them makes no sense, they could buy a lot of coins while having a leveraged long position at the same time, which sounds even better, no?

[Rosewater Foundation]

Go back to bed you lazy fuck !

I had a dream I fell in love. I can't go back there.

[Rosewater Foundation]

[vroom]

do you guys know when the next antminer s9 will be available? the current stock is sold out and I can't find any dates. or do you know something about current or upcoming s9 alternatives?

[d_eddie]

This is nonsense for a very simple reason. If there is gold price increase there wr

Agree. The only valid use case I can think of would be a whale protecting their position at the top of the market when they know they have a large fiat expense coming up (eg tax) and they don't want to cash out yet. The problem is they can't use BTC to underwrite the trade (it has to be Fiat) so it's useless even for simple hedging.

Tone's recent interview with Ugly Goat explains the whole scenario well:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXUEfZY4zRk

CBOE rules allow the futures to be linked to trades of underlying positions held on Gemini, called an “Exchange of Contract for Underlying Position”.  So you can trade BTC on Gemini for BTC futures on CBOE.  And you can sell your future for real bitcoin.  


Thank

Does Gemini allow margin trading (shorts)?
In other words, can the underlying position on Gemini be short too, or can it only be long?

[milkshock100]

moon shot incoming

the dips are so weak these days.......

sigh......

[somac.]

Look like everything is on hold until traders realize that the futures market has no effect on price.  Maybe some time later when leveraging is increased from 2.2X to 100X there could be incentive to manipulate the markets.  For now I think the accumulation will continue.  25K, 50K soon..

There's no incentive for "manipulators" to manipulate the price down. They can profit taking a long position equally, it doesn't mater for them whether it goes up or down. Them buying a lot of coins so they could dump them makes no sense, they could buy a lot of coins while having a leveraged long position at the same time, which sounds even better, no?

Exactly!

People are looking at this the wrong way, profit is on the upside not the down. When you short the market the most that the market can down is 100%, But, when you go long the most it can go up is an infinite percent.

Pretty obvious where the manipulation would be. hmm, should I short and maybe get 100% profit or should I go long for >1000000%? Easy decision.

Disclaimer, this excludes any leverage of course.

[ragnar0k]

Does Gemini allow margin trading (shorts)?
In other words, can the underlying position on Gemini be short too, or can it only be long?

Only long afaik, short will be available on the CBOE exchange
For shorts I usually go on etoro but has stupid fees