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Question: How much of your corn do you plan on cashing out in the next massive bull run?
None - 22 (18.6%)
1-10% - 15 (12.7%)
11-20% - 14 (11.9%)
21-30% - 16 (13.6%)
31-40% - 6 (5.1%)
41-50% - 12 (10.2%)
51-60% - 9 (7.6%)
61-70% - 5 (4.2%)
71-80% - 4 (3.4%)
81-90% - 2 (1.7%)
91-99% - 3 (2.5%)
100% - 10 (8.5%)
Total Voters: 118

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21785683 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
gembitz
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December 10, 2018, 01:56:13 AM


https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/nzpv8m/the-large-bitcoin-collider-is-generating-trillions-of-keys-and-breaking-into-wallets

 Grin

WEEEEEEEE

===>

https://lbc.cryptoguru.org/stats
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December 10, 2018, 02:02:44 AM
Last edit: December 10, 2018, 04:19:52 AM by Hueristic


TRY HARDER !!!

Quote
The Large Bitcoin Collider, a blue-sky community project to link up everyone's computers in an attempt to brute-force break an element of bitcoin's cryptography, is raising alarm bells—but it's not because anybody thinks the LBC will succeed.

Instead, while looking through the code that LBC contributors must run on their machines, eagle-eyed folks on Reddit noticed something fishy. [b]Basically, the LBC software sneakily runs code on a user's computer without their knowledge or approval[/b]. The software also allows for user-initiated updates to come from anybody, which leaves the door open for hackers to inject your computer with malicious code. This is concerning because, while it's unclear how many people are running the software, interest has exploded over the last week

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/3d9bv8/the-large-bitcoin-collider-is-a-security-nightmare
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December 10, 2018, 02:12:57 AM

that's it

no more weeeeeeee
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December 10, 2018, 02:35:48 AM

Gembitz is the type of person that attempts to talk the price down to buy, gets in at $3199, then Bitmain goes bankrupt and with nobody left to manipulate the price up, it implodes to $900.
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December 10, 2018, 02:44:56 AM

I'm prepared to buy all the way down. I will not begin until we reach the next resistance area around $2,700ish.
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December 10, 2018, 02:49:21 AM

I'm prepared to buy all the way down. I will not begin until we reach the next resistance area around $2,700ish.

i will jump in if we reach 1.5 k  Smiley
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December 10, 2018, 02:55:05 AM



Large walls of quotes from people I have ignored, push those who have quoted them into the same fate. Please keep their words to yourself. Thanks

Meh, I'm fucking with him, get over it.
It's not like I'm quoting the roach. Tongue
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December 10, 2018, 03:07:59 AM

WTF?

JayJuanGee
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December 10, 2018, 04:19:03 AM

By the way, I don't believe the current market move in the slightest. No moon yet, gentlemen. Relax. This is just a longer, slower short squeeze along the way to the final, brutal crevice.

Accordingly - my money where my mouth is - I've closed my short with a small-mid profit (take profit limit just under my entry) and reopened it a bit higher. It's smaller, too, but I'm afraid to make it grow too quickly. An incremental ladder à la (reverse) JJG/JB is better in my experience.

To fellow tactical shorters (I'm thinking HM and others) - LDOH! (that's hodl in reverse).


Some things do not work in reverse.

They are based on different theories, and differing underlying assumptions.

Peeps who only dollar cost average, buy on dips, hodl and perhaps sell a bit on the upside, do not attempt to predict the market, but merely react to it.. so if the price goes down buy and if you run out of money and are uncertain then HODL until ready to buy, sell a bit on the way up, but nothing really that is meaningful, except as a kind of insurance in case it goes down.

The method is not very proactive nor predictive at all, and also presumes both an inability to predict and that in the long term BTC prices are going up.

I am not opposed to your method at all, but I will proclaim both that it seems different, and it also seems to pervert more basic theories, such as mine (and jbreher's) because we don't play around with margin or attempt to predict BTC's direction, except that long term it is going up.

Of course, I have other issues with jbreher's attempts to apply the same principles to other coins, but that is his choice, and so my point would be that it is not necessarily good to apply such same incrementalism laddering principles to other coins unless your presumption is that in the long run they are going up.. which seems like a BIGGER gamble on many of the other coins (non-bitcoin coins, which of course includes all bitcoin forks, including bcash variants).
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December 10, 2018, 04:21:53 AM

Bitcoin needs to get above 10k fast. Irobot has a new model that empties its own bin, and I'm thinking "Man that can make me even MORE of a degenerate pig".....

Oh hell yeah, I could do with one of those myself. Hurry the fuck up BTC , some of us have needs!

As if any of you Hodlers will sell any when we see $10K. Hodlers don't know how to sell.

I think that many of us know how to sell, just we frequently will have some regrets about not selling enough.. and there lies a significant part of the HODLer dilemma.
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December 10, 2018, 04:22:06 AM

I'm prepared to buy all the way down. I will not begin until we reach the next resistance area around $2,700ish.
I'm prepared to buy all the way down. I will not begin until we reach the next resistance area around $2,700ish.

i will jump in if we reach 1.5 k  Smiley

I seriously have no clue what my number is these days.
I don't want to do KYC anywhere so...
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December 10, 2018, 04:34:11 AM

Bitcoin needs to get above 10k fast. Irobot has a new model that empties its own bin, and I'm thinking "Man that can make me even MORE of a degenerate pig".....

Oh hell yeah, I could do with one of those myself. Hurry the fuck up BTC , some of us have needs!

As if any of you Hodlers will sell any when we see $10K. Hodlers don't know how to sell.

Today's idiot is tomorrow's genius

Next time we see 10k could be  mid 2020. Almost no chance in 2019. Haven't even confirmed a bottom yet. This is so obvious that I cannot understand why ppl don't see it.

I would be very happy to see $6k again sometime next year, but I wouldn't guarantee it.

The good news is that for new buyers, current low prices will give a great 2 year return. If there were to be a further drop to say $1500, and a rise to $3000 by 2020 that gives a 100% ROI to first time buyers. It will give a boost to confidence from which a new bull market can start.

I will have to say that you are pretty close, here.   It seems that you are more pessimistic than I would like, but currently, I cannot really say that you are saying anything wrong.... especially when it comes to confirming bottom. 

A few weeks ago, there were really decent chances that the $6k territory (which was actually around $5774) could have been the bottom, but once that support had broken, and it has been ongoingly lingering in the supra $3k arena with continued and ongoing test of downward (even successful ones) that continue to bring the bottom lower - which really rises to a concern that the bottom could be a ways off.. and best case scenario would be for $3k to hold, which is probably less than a 45% chance.. sad as it is for me to admit such current short term BTC price dynamics.
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December 10, 2018, 04:40:14 AM

WTF?




JayJuanGee
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December 10, 2018, 05:05:35 AM


I have to disagree. That trendline needs to be lower, the start should be at the end of 2015.

below 3000 is not possible  https://forum.bits.media/index.php?/topic/952-%D0%BA%D1%83%D1%80%D1%81-bitcoin/&do=findComment&comment=1707986

Wait and see what happens when all the MtGox Bitcoins are released into the wild if the current price is hovering around $3000 / BTC.

When is that coin release going to happen?  

Probably not going to change anything significantly when the MtGox coins are released to the coin owners - such release might be a bullish event.
How? Unless they got dollars they won't be buying extra coins as a result of the release, but will have coins of which some will probably be sold due to the amount of people involved.

Let them sell.  So what?

Part of the idea of bullishness is that when GOX people get their coins, they are going to have control over the coins, and that is bullish.... Coins were tied up, and now they have them.

A vast number of Gox investors (traders) are not naive nor novices, and they have been in the bitcoin scene since 2011, 2012 and 2013.

You believe that GOX investors have been sitting on their hands for 5 years just waiting for their only coins?  Bullshit... There may be a few that fit that category; however, more likely, a large number of them are likely hedged in various ways, and yeah, again, some are going to sell, but they are likely stupid to sell if BTC is still in a similar place (price wise) as it is now.. Let's just assume BTC prices are in the $2k to $5k arena, it may be a profit for them, since their coins were acquired in the sub $1k territory, but there is also some windfall coming here, too... and if some chose to sell, so what?
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December 10, 2018, 05:20:33 AM

I'm prepared to buy all the way down. I will not begin until we reach the next resistance area around $2,700ish.

I have this nagging feeling that selling to a long standing order is being avoided by the market seller.

Mine are still standing. Funny looking at some of my orders almost reached by the last dumping attempt.
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December 10, 2018, 05:39:46 AM

A bear market is when the price of an investment falls over time. It begins after prices have fallen 20 percent or more from their 52-week high.
https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-a-bear-market-difference-from-a-bull-3305814

Bear market versus market correction
A market correction is a period in which stock prices drop following a period of higher prices. The idea behind a correction is that because prices rose higher than they should've, falling prices serve the purpose of "correcting" the situation. One major difference between a bear market and a market correction is the extent to which prices fall. Bear markets occur when stock prices drop 20% or more, whereas corrections typically involve price drops around 10%. Furthermore, market corrections tend to last less than two months, whereas bear markets last two months or longer.
https://www.fool.com/knowledge-center/bear-market.aspx


bear mar·ket
/ˈˌbe(ə)r ˈmärkət/Submit
nounSTOCK MARKET
noun: bear market; plural noun: bear markets
a market in which prices are falling, encouraging selling.
Google.com search


Bear market
A bear market is a general decline in the stock market over a period of time.[9] It is a transition from high investor optimism to widespread investor fear and pessimism. According to The Vanguard Group, "While there's no agreed-upon definition of a bear market, one generally accepted measure is a price decline of 20% or more over at least a two-month period."[10]

A smaller decline of 10 to 20% is considered a correction. Once a market enters correction or bear market territory, it isn't considered to have exited that territory until a new high is reached
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_trend


You can use technical definitions all that you like, but such technical definitions are not going to give you a very accurate place regarding the starting point, if the price went up 78x in 2 years (starting from about $250 in about October 2015 to December 2017) and even nearly 8x from about $2,500 to $19,666 in the most recent exorbitant rise of the last 4 months (from August to December) of that bull run.

Part of my reason for not conceding bear market until after breaking support below $6k, but in any case, calling the market is certainly a lagging indicator, because we are likely to also not know when we are in a bull market either, until we are in it for 6 months or more.
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December 10, 2018, 05:42:38 AM

WeeeeEEEe = noise

The pig picture in the train was funny though..   similar to the troll looking folks (seemingly some of us) in the HODLGANG train.
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December 10, 2018, 06:01:56 AM

I wasn't around in 2011.  Can you tell us more about what it was like?

My brain is frazzled and running on caffeine. Here are some loosely organized thoughts:

I started GPU mining around May 2011. BTC bubbled to ~$32 somewhere thereabouts (June-July?) and then collapsed to ~$2. The bear market was swift and brutal.

There was practically no infrastructure or major investment, aside from early ASICs that would soon come online. Hell, Roger Ver's memorydealers.com was one of the few places you could even spend bitcoins. Mt. Gox was basically the only exchange, of course.

Home GPU miners like me were a major part of the ecosystem, and we were purged at this time, as decreasing prices and skyrocketing difficulty soon made mining unprofitable. There was a sort of loss of innocence as we were wiped out and large industrial mining farms took over.

The overall feeling was similar to other bear markets - agony, despair, etc. However, many of us took to heart the rumors of bitcoin's demise. It seemed likely that bitcoin would, at best, remain something of a hobby for cypherpunks. OTOH, the despair was different. It was more about the loss of a dream, and less about the loss of money. Since BTC was so cheap, most people only had like a few grand invested, at most. Unlike Dec. 2017-18 when even the shoeshine boy lost $100K+.
                                                     

very good summary. 

In terms of the current lower price I think of things this way. Back in say Feb 2016 the price was $1612. It was just 8% of the later ATH. Imagine if the ATH had happened some time before feb 2016 then we would have dropped some 92% at Feb 2016.   Would we have been as "happy" at $1612 as we were in reality or crying doom. Transfer that to today and if we end up at $1612 or somewhere close just see it as  a very flat period since feb 2016 (ie ignore the boom/bust bit). We 'survived' a long flat period at around $250 and did not think the world would end.  Just HODL even at some very low figure - it will pull away at some point in the next few years and you can cash out with healthy profits if you do not want to go through yet another cycle though to date regularly and slowly buying and HODL has been very good to those that practice it. Even those that have been "caught" buying in old bubbles (eg $31 , $1000 ) as still quids in.   It may take a few years but even buying at $20,000 in 2017 will seem a great deal.                                                                                                                                          

Even though I believe that i understand your overall point, and that is buying BTC at any time will provide long term BTC profits, as long as the buyer is a holder on a long enough time line - perhaps greater than 5 years?

Regarding your reference to February 2016?  I think that you are referring to some other time line, especially if you are referring to a $1,612 price?   

In February 2016, BTC prices were largely stuck in a $350 to $450 range until about end of May 2016 when BTC prices broke back above $500.
 

Between about January 2017 and May 2017, BTC prices were breaking above the previous ATH of $1,163 from more than 3 years earlier, but anyhow BTC is not really leaving these various extreme kinds of volatility - not yet.
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December 10, 2018, 06:04:12 AM

I'm prepared to buy all the way down. I will not begin until we reach the next resistance area around $2,700ish.

I did a test buy at $3300 to see if my bank would allow it.

Then another slightly larger test as it was coming back up.

Will buy more as it bounces around that number.
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December 10, 2018, 06:18:54 AM

Original caption was something along the likes of, "you know you fucked up when people who are usually busy killing each other all come together to kill you."



Blood in the streets confirmed. Feeling bullish.
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