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Question: Price prediction for the May 21 weekly close:
<$20,000 - 4 (5.4%)
$20,000 - $22,000 - 0 (0%)
$22,000 - $24,000 - 2 (2.7%)
$24,000 - $26,000 - 3 (4.1%)
$26,000 - $28,000 - 7 (9.5%)
$28,000 - $30,000 - 11 (14.9%)
$30,000 - $32,000 - 15 (20.3%)
$32,000 - $34,000 - 7 (9.5%)
$34,000 - $36,000 - 6 (8.1%)
$36,000 - $38,000 - 3 (4.1%)
$38,000 - $40,000 - 2 (2.7%)
>$40,000 - 14 (18.9%)
Total Voters: 74

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25618558 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (160 posts by 2 users with 9 merit deleted.)
HairyMaclairy
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December 12, 2018, 11:08:51 PM
Merited by Majormax (1)

Aww man, there's a 1300 buy spoof order on Bitfinex.  Looks like we'll drop. Sad   Hate when they do that, it always goes the opposite direction.  Except when they put the big sells in then everyone dumps. DOH

It’s because walls are made of magnets. 
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JayJuanGee
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December 12, 2018, 11:17:21 PM

There is a theme being propagated on interwebs that bitcoin will never be able to get from under negative price pressure from CME/CBOE futures (which are cash-settled). Apparently, it happened multiple times before with other commodities.

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

Personally, i don't fully buy that doom-and-gloom scenario because other cryptos did not have futures, yet declined even more, hence not a clear cut picture.

Would btc-settled futures like bakkt and/or 'physical' ETF objectively helpful in this fight or not?

Of course, if some some major fiat currency would experience hyperinflation, then btc would benefit, but this scenario is not very conducive to day-to-day life.

I would prefer to think about how we can use intrinsic bitcoin properties to fight CME/CBOE pushing us down (in price).


Seems to me that you have to buy BTC in order to sell them, so can be a question regarding how long these folks can continue to get BTC to sell to send the price down, even if settled in dollars , aren't the shorts going to get reckt as some point if people are not willing to sell their BTC and there is not enough BTC to fuel the various contracts that are settled in dollars?

Nope, you don't need to do anything with the underlying (bitcoin) in order to buy/sell futures, which settle in cash (not bitcoin).
Same occurs on the stock market where since 1987 PPT regularly buys S&P500 futures (during crashes) to bring the underlying S&P up.
They save the money this way, lol. It's $-efficient.


I guess that I don't understand then.

I don't see how you can get the price to go down without selling and no one willing to buy at that price, so the price goes lower and lower, until someone is willing to buy BTC at that price. 

Doesn't matter if you are settling in dollars, you still have to sell BTC to get the BTC price do go down and have no buyers.  If you have no BTC, then you cannot sell them.  Of course, we get into factional BTC, and I understand some of that fractional BTC can occur, up to a point that some buyers, when the buy, are going to want to have the real BTC, rather than a paper claim.  It is easier to claim your BTC than it is with a large number of other assets, including stocks and gold.
BTCMILLIONAIRE
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December 12, 2018, 11:20:33 PM

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

Yes.  

You need to understand the distinction between absolute scarcity and relative scarcity.   https://sfugeog322.wordpress.com/2012/01/19/absolute-and-relative-scarcity/

None of the other commodities which are controlled by the futures market have absolute scarcity.  Gold can easily be mined, pigs can be bred, marginal cropping land can grow more corn.

Many of us, including many on this wall, are now dedicated to slowly, gently buying physical all the way down, no matter how deep it goes or for how long. Holders of last resort will create conditions of absolute scarcity.  

The reality is that the poor performance of gold and silver markets is a reflection of poor organic demand for precious metals, combined with elastic supply.  People like Roach blow this up into a global conspiracy so that they can avoid taking responsibility for their own poor investment decisions.  There is undoubtedly short term manipulation in almost all markets, but whales can only push the price in directions that the price already wants to go. 

For the record I do not think that the current downward price pressure on Bitcoin is a manipulation. I think it is a perfectly natural and organic reaction to a blow off top.





+1 WO sMerit.
Ludwig Von
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December 12, 2018, 11:25:04 PM

I really have absolutely no fucking idea what the price is gonna do next.

It's easy.

Micgoossens = dumb money
JayJuanGee = stupid money
Elwar = insane money

Just do the opposite of whatever they're doing.

and whats roach money ? if there is any

no money

But he eats a gold sandwich and drinks a cup of molten silver every morning... . Fundamentals!  Cheesy
JayJuanGee
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December 12, 2018, 11:26:33 PM
Last edit: December 12, 2018, 11:38:47 PM by JayJuanGee

[author=JayJuanGee link=topic=178336.msg48631297#msg48631297 date=1544653506]  

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

Yes.  

You need to understand the distinction between absolute scarcity and relative scarcity.   https://sfugeog322.wordpress.com/2012/01/19/absolute-and-relative-scarcity/

None of the other commodities which are controlled by the futures market have absolute scarcity.  Gold can easily be mined, pigs can be bred, marginal cropping land can grow more corn.

Many of us, including many on this wall, are now dedicated to slowly, gently buying physical all the way down, no matter how deep it goes or for how long. Holders of last resort will create conditions of absolute scarcity.  

The reality is that the poor performance of gold and silver markets is a reflection of poor organic demand for precious metals, combined with elastic supply.  People like Roach blow this up into a global conspiracy so that they can avoid taking responsibility for their own poor investment decisions.  There is undoubtedly short term manipulation in almost all markets, but whales can only push the price in directions that the price already wants to go.  

For the record I do not think that the current downward price pressure on Bitcoin is a manipulation. I think it is a perfectly natural and organic reaction to a blow off top.


You may want to fix your quote Hairyberry.  My lame attempt above...to attribute to Biodom.

That is Biodom asking the above originating question, not me.


And, by the way, your answer to Biodom is much better presented than my earlier (or is it subsequent? whatever) attempts to say the same thing in a more clumsy way.
HairyMaclairy
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December 12, 2018, 11:34:36 PM

Thank you JJG.  Fixed.  A hazard of posting from mobile. 
Last of the V8s
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December 12, 2018, 11:39:45 PM

Hope you're using government-approved apps with the requisite backdoors on that there mobile. Grin
El duderino_
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December 12, 2018, 11:40:33 PM

Gonna read the last Posts tomorrow, still sick AF

Just wanna say, hodl on WO’s and enjoy life while hodling
If hodling and enjoying can still go’s together Then you got things by the right end

Try to increase in possible ways good night WO’s

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December 12, 2018, 11:45:06 PM

Get better soon micg. sleep tight. hodl tight Cool
bitserve
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December 12, 2018, 11:45:54 PM

Gonna reasthe last Posts tomorrow, still sick AF

Just wanna say, hodl on WO’s and enjoy life while hodling
If hodling and enjoying can still go’s together Then you got things by the right end

Try to increase in possible ways good night WO’s



Take some rest Mic, Bitcoin is not going anywhere until you get better Smiley

HairyMaclairy
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December 12, 2018, 11:50:48 PM

Hope you're using government-approved apps with the requisite backdoors on that there mobile. Grin

Oh. That stings. No smart ass responses to that.
Last of the V8s
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December 12, 2018, 11:54:24 PM

Hope you're using government-approved apps with the requisite backdoors on that there mobile. Grin

Oh. That stings. No smart ass responses to that.
Thought you'd come back with Brexit-lol. Approaches/exceeds your govt levels of stupid.
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December 12, 2018, 11:55:36 PM

bitserve
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December 12, 2018, 11:56:30 PM

Is it me or the price is drawing a nice W?
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December 13, 2018, 12:00:57 AM
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As during times like these, media outlets not only brag about the volatility of Bitcoin, but also it's energy consumption, this article could be interesting for some of us:
https://blog.picks.co/pow-is-efficient-aa3d442754d3

It's putting things in an interesting perspective and I hope this wasn't posted before, because it's from September.

The obligatory comparison of Bitcoin with the Gold and Banking System:







HairyMaclairy
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December 13, 2018, 12:03:35 AM

Hope you're using government-approved apps with the requisite backdoors on that there mobile. Grin

Oh. That stings. No smart ass responses to that.
Thought you'd come back with Brexit-lol. Approaches/exceeds your govt levels of stupid.

So what is your take?

  • Remainers split and enough of them decide soft Brexit better than hard Brexit?
  • Remainers and hard Brexiteers remain united and UK crashes out?
  • Labour calls no confidence and wins?

BTCMILLIONAIRE
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December 13, 2018, 12:05:03 AM

Is it me or the price is drawing a nice W?
Please stick to the 11th Commandment: Thou shall not jinx.
bitserve
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December 13, 2018, 12:14:33 AM

Is it me or the price is drawing a nice W?
Please stick to the 11th Commandment: Thou shall not jinx.

Bitcoin is dead.
Last of the V8s
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December 13, 2018, 12:18:34 AM

Hope you're using government-approved apps with the requisite backdoors on that there mobile. Grin

Oh. That stings. No smart ass responses to that.
Thought you'd come back with Brexit-lol. Approaches/exceeds your govt levels of stupid.

So what is your take?

  • Remainers split and enough of them decide soft Brexit better than hard Brexit?
  • Remainers and hard Brexiteers remain united and UK crashes out?
  • Labour calls no confidence and wins?
Whoa Nellie. I hardly follow it; was just today's kindergarten power-plays caught my eye. 1 seems most likely. 2 I'd want. 3 It wasn't the socialists' call. No confidence votes are for those in power. Tories just voted for May and a year's reprieve from no-confidence votes.
JayJuanGee
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December 13, 2018, 12:20:51 AM

Is it me or the price is drawing a nice W?
Please stick to the 11th Commandment: Thou shall not jinx.


I had to look up:  "what is a 'W' in trading"... hahahahahahahaha..

So, I guess that it could mean recovery or double bottom, but fuck technicals like that.  I don't think that we can rely on anything like that in order to have any kind of meaningful confidence.  Accordingly, we are still within about 6-7% of the most recent local bottom of $3210. 

These days, I am not going to start to feel comfortable until we are above $6k and $6k has been bottom tested a few times.

I might change my tune with more passage of time, but we are just too damned close to the most recent local bottom to be exuding any kind of reasonable level of confidence beyond a more surface relief that the bottom attack has temporarily resided.
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