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Question: How much of your corn do you plan on cashing out in the next massive bull run?
None - 24 (18.9%)
1-10% - 16 (12.6%)
11-20% - 15 (11.8%)
21-30% - 18 (14.2%)
31-40% - 7 (5.5%)
41-50% - 14 (11%)
51-60% - 9 (7.1%)
61-70% - 5 (3.9%)
71-80% - 4 (3.1%)
81-90% - 2 (1.6%)
91-99% - 3 (2.4%)
100% - 10 (7.9%)
Total Voters: 127

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21788560 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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December 13, 2018, 12:20:51 AM

Is it me or the price is drawing a nice W?
Please stick to the 11th Commandment: Thou shall not jinx.


I had to look up:  "what is a 'W' in trading"... hahahahahahahaha..

So, I guess that it could mean recovery or double bottom, but fuck technicals like that.  I don't think that we can rely on anything like that in order to have any kind of meaningful confidence.  Accordingly, we are still within about 6-7% of the most recent local bottom of $3210. 

These days, I am not going to start to feel comfortable until we are above $6k and $6k has been bottom tested a few times.

I might change my tune with more passage of time, but we are just too damned close to the most recent local bottom to be exuding any kind of reasonable level of confidence beyond a more surface relief that the bottom attack has temporarily resided.
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December 13, 2018, 12:30:53 AM

^ Anyways it would be a short term W if anything. The reality is that no one knows if the price is going to try to break $3000, or bounce to $5000 or both things in sequential order.... No fucking one!
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December 13, 2018, 12:37:41 AM

You need to understand the distinction between absolute scarcity and relative scarcity.   https://sfugeog322.wordpress.com/2012/01/19/absolute-and-relative-scarcity/

Gold can easily be mined, pigs can be bred, marginal cropping land can grow more corn.

Many of us, including many on this wall, are now dedicated to slowly, gently buying physical all the way down, no matter how deep it goes or for how long. Holders of last resort will create conditions of absolute scarcity.  

The reality is that the poor performance of gold and silver markets is a reflection of poor organic demand for precious metals, combined with elastic supply.  People like Roach blow this up into a global conspiracy so that they can avoid taking responsibility for their own poor investment decisions.  

^Typical lying kike.

Shitcoins have no scarcity.  Zero.  Artificial scarcity is not scarcity.  There's no difference in bitcoin, dogecoin, and every other coin and nothing that forces everyone to use the same one.  Physical metals (the noble metals group) are physically constrained by nature so everyone is forced to use the same small amount of them because you can't create a new noble metal in your basement, but anyone can create a new digital currency.  This is why physical metals have a valid Schelling point and shitcoins don't.

You claim "more gold can easily be mined".  Well, too bad for the lying kikes that it's far easier to create new shitcoins than it is to mine more gold or silver.  And then he tosses in the most asinine lie ever claiming he's "buying physical bitcoin".  There's no such thing as "physical bitcoins".  Bitcoin is equivalent to cloud banking.  It's impossible to actually take possesion of one; they always just exist as a virtual breadloaf.  They have built-in middlemen and counterparty risk, and it's impossible to remove it, unlike metals.

If it has built-in middlemen, doesn't remove counterparty risk, and it's not even fungible, it's obviously not money.  Bitcoin is great if you want to willingly live inside of a govt tracking system like the Chinese social credit score system they're building in China, but it's not good for anything else compared to options that already exist for money such as metals.
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December 13, 2018, 12:42:07 AM

Ok

My understanding is last night's vote was an Australian style attempt to topple the PM.  It was called a 'no confidence' vote but really was an internal Tory debate.  Hence the 12 month rule which is only an internal Tory rule and does not bind Labour.

A real no confidence vote would take place on the floor of Parliament and involve a motion brought by Labour which would have to be supported by Tory dissidents.  Presumably political suicide for any Tory MP who supported it, although hard to tell in this day and age.  Labour would then be asked to form Parliament, and if they couldn't Parliament woudl be dissolved and a general election called (assuming the Tories subsequently did not form Parliament).  

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39630209

My personal take is that a crash out is now the most likely outcome, so you may get your wish.  
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December 13, 2018, 12:42:37 AM
Last edit: December 13, 2018, 12:55:56 AM by Last of the V8s

Ah yes, correct.^ Don't see Corbyn doing that now. edit: he's not a thing.
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meanwhile2 https://blog.tradingview.com/en/new-capitalization-crypto-indices-available-on-chart-10376/
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December 13, 2018, 12:48:56 AM

HODL BTC FOR AMG

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December 13, 2018, 12:59:45 AM

^ Anyways it would be a short term W if anything. The reality is that no one knows if the price is going to try to break $3000, or bounce to $5000 or both things in sequential order.... No fucking one!

The price might stay flat until Christmas while everyone is guessing which way it will go.
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December 13, 2018, 01:06:05 AM

^ Anyways it would be a short term W if anything. The reality is that no one knows if the price is going to try to break $3000, or bounce to $5000 or both things in sequential order.... No fucking one!

The price might stay flat until Christmas while everyone is guessing which way it will go.

That's obviously another possibility. Or just stay in the 3-4 range.
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December 13, 2018, 01:07:48 AM

Anyone knows how to do tx's with coin control using a Ledger?

I want to migrate all my coins to another seed. I could use the Trezor if it support it and the Ledger doesn't. But I prefer to use the Ledger.

Anyone?
JayJuanGee
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December 13, 2018, 01:09:37 AM

^ Anyways it would be a short term W if anything. The reality is that no one knows if the price is going to try to break $3000, or bounce to $5000 or both things in sequential order.... No fucking one!

Surely, you are stating the obvious when asserting that no one knows, but there are also people with plans, and there are people with better ideas than others about their plans and how much they believe they can either pump or dump or to strategically play their FUD.  That's we are here to discuss, no?  Attempt to share our ideas and evidence about what we think happened, is happening and is going to happen.

TLDR: no one "fucking" knows  = overstatement of the year (day)(hour)   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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December 13, 2018, 01:09:53 AM

^ Anyways it would be a short term W if anything. The reality is that no one knows if the price is going to try to break $3000, or bounce to $5000 or both things in sequential order.... No fucking one!

The price might stay flat until Christmas while everyone is guessing which way it will go.

Whales like to dump on holidays.  Christmas unlikely to be pretty.  
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December 13, 2018, 01:13:07 AM

^ Anyways it would be a short term W if anything. The reality is that no one knows if the price is going to try to break $3000, or bounce to $5000 or both things in sequential order.... No fucking one!

Surely, you are stating the obvious when asserting that no one knows, but there are also people with plans, and there are people with better ideas than others about their plans and how much they believe they can either pump or dump or to strategically play their FUD.  That's we are here to discuss, no?  Attempt to share our ideas and evidence about what we think happened, is happening and is going to happen.

TLDR: no one "fucking" knows  = overstatement of the year (day)(hour)   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

No. That would be just speculation.
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December 13, 2018, 01:19:05 AM

No one knows but price is only two dimensional.  It can only go up or down. 

As a general rule, the price tends go in one direction measured on a monthly basis. 

If you are betting that it will go in the same direction it has gone in for the past 3 months, your bet will probably be right. 

After that, it only comes down to risk management.
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December 13, 2018, 01:20:29 AM

Whales like to dump on holidays.  Christmas unlikely to be pretty.

I'll bet those sadistic bastards persuaded their children and parents to buy in at the top and have not told them that they themselves own coins.

For Christmas they'll probably give the family home a 55 inch market feed screen in pride of place in the front room, then go to the toilet and crash the price. While everyone else is watching in tears they'll give them 'impartial' encouragement until they wipe their tears away and trade into his sells with a heart bursting with possibilities.

Then the whale goes outside for a 'smoke' and crashes the price again.
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December 13, 2018, 01:40:51 AM

^ Anyways it would be a short term W if anything. The reality is that no one knows if the price is going to try to break $3000, or bounce to $5000 or both things in sequential order.... No fucking one!

Surely, you are stating the obvious when asserting that no one knows, but there are also people with plans, and there are people with better ideas than others about their plans and how much they believe they can either pump or dump or to strategically play their FUD.  That's we are here to discuss, no?  Attempt to share our ideas and evidence about what we think happened, is happening and is going to happen.

TLDR: no one "fucking" knows  = overstatement of the year (day)(hour)   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

No. That would be just speculation.

When in doubt, stand your ground.

Fair enough.   Tongue Tongue
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December 13, 2018, 01:47:11 AM
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An attempt at an alternative explanation, with a final question of my own.


Seems to me that you have to buy BTC in order to sell them,

aren't the shorts going to get reckt as some point if people are not willing to sell their BTC and there is not enough BTC to fuel the various contracts that are settled in dollars?

Nope, you don't need to do anything with the underlying (bitcoin) in order to buy/sell futures, which settle in cash (not bitcoin).

I guess that I don't understand then.

I don't see how you can get the price to go down without selling and no one willing to buy at that price, so the price goes lower and lower, until someone is willing to buy BTC at that price.  

Doesn't matter if you are settling in dollars, you still have to sell BTC to get the BTC price do go down and have no buyers.
Indeed, we know the actual volume of futures is small if compared to the underlying (actual btc) market. However, sometimes you only have to nudge things a bit to make them move. Besides, there is leverage, which can make money use more effective.

If you always want to push the same way (for example: down), you will eventually need to recharge; but not as much as the whole market moved (the whole Archimedean buoyant force, so to say) - just a fraction. And you can do it OTC - disturbing the market as little as possible, and deferring/spreading the effect.

One thing I don't understand and I hope someone can help me with: why the asymmetry between shorting and longing? If money on one side (short) implies the same sum is on the other (long), intuition tells me the situation should be symmetrical. Intuition can be wrong, though. So why is it said that whales prefer shorting. Is it easier? Does it pay out better, or what is it?
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December 13, 2018, 01:49:29 AM

^ Anyways it would be a short term W if anything. The reality is that no one knows if the price is going to try to break $3000, or bounce to $5000 or both things in sequential order.... No fucking one!

Surely, you are stating the obvious when asserting that no one knows, but there are also people with plans, and there are people with better ideas than others about their plans and how much they believe they can either pump or dump or to strategically play their FUD.  That's we are here to discuss, no?  Attempt to share our ideas and evidence about what we think happened, is happening and is going to happen.

TLDR: no one "fucking" knows  = overstatement of the year (day)(hour)   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

No. That would be just speculation.

When in doubt, stand your ground.

Fair enough.   Tongue Tongue

I don't have noodles in my ass.
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December 13, 2018, 01:51:54 AM

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

Yes.  

You need to understand the distinction between absolute scarcity and relative scarcity.   https://sfugeog322.wordpress.com/2012/01/19/absolute-and-relative-scarcity/

None of the other commodities which are controlled by the futures market have absolute scarcity.  Gold can easily be mined, pigs can be bred, marginal cropping land can grow more corn.

Many of us, including many on this wall, are now dedicated to slowly, gently buying physical all the way down, no matter how deep it goes or for how long. Holders of last resort will create conditions of absolute scarcity.  

The reality is that the poor performance of gold and silver markets is a reflection of poor organic demand for precious metals, combined with elastic supply.  People like Roach blow this up into a global conspiracy so that they can avoid taking responsibility for their own poor investment decisions.  There is undoubtedly short term manipulation in almost all markets, but whales can only push the price in directions that the price already wants to go.  

For the record I do not think that the current downward price pressure on Bitcoin is a manipulation. I think it is a perfectly natural and organic reaction to a blow off top.


There goes my last sMerit.
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December 13, 2018, 01:54:56 AM

There is a theme being propagated on interwebs that bitcoin will never be able to get from under negative price pressure from CME/CBOE futures (which are cash-settled). Apparently, it happened multiple times before with other commodities.

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

(snip)

I would prefer to think about how we can use intrinsic bitcoin properties to fight CME/CBOE pushing us down (in price).

The question also deserves a (WO)sMerit.
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December 13, 2018, 01:57:36 AM
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What's the rationale behind the Bitcorn halving by the way? Why not some sort of continuous curve that converges to zero?

To give us a wee thrill to look forward to every few years?

Perhaps Satoshi was a shameless showman after all. Everyone loves a cliffhanger.

I'd rather be poor and have a full head of hair than be rich and bald

At the age of 43 or whatever I am mine's just starting to fray.

I wouldn't mind at all if it was turning into a widow's peak, that's a good look, but mine's only going directly in the centre of the forehead which looks fucking awful so I'm going to wind up looking like the victim of a driveby lobotomy.

Weird how just a few square cm on one portion of your skull turns you from someone normal-looking to a drooling goon.

Had to shave my head for years and im not even 30 yet, the only person who really gives a shit about your hair is you. If that doesn't make you feel better - you can always get xHomerx10 to make you a hat

 It's as though you read my mind.

 

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