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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25466871 times)
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HeSoCo
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December 13, 2018, 12:48:56 AM

HODL BTC FOR AMG

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December 13, 2018, 12:59:45 AM

^ Anyways it would be a short term W if anything. The reality is that no one knows if the price is going to try to break $3000, or bounce to $5000 or both things in sequential order.... No fucking one!

The price might stay flat until Christmas while everyone is guessing which way it will go.
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December 13, 2018, 01:06:05 AM

^ Anyways it would be a short term W if anything. The reality is that no one knows if the price is going to try to break $3000, or bounce to $5000 or both things in sequential order.... No fucking one!

The price might stay flat until Christmas while everyone is guessing which way it will go.

That's obviously another possibility. Or just stay in the 3-4 range.
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December 13, 2018, 01:07:48 AM

Anyone knows how to do tx's with coin control using a Ledger?

I want to migrate all my coins to another seed. I could use the Trezor if it support it and the Ledger doesn't. But I prefer to use the Ledger.

Anyone?
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December 13, 2018, 01:09:37 AM

^ Anyways it would be a short term W if anything. The reality is that no one knows if the price is going to try to break $3000, or bounce to $5000 or both things in sequential order.... No fucking one!

Surely, you are stating the obvious when asserting that no one knows, but there are also people with plans, and there are people with better ideas than others about their plans and how much they believe they can either pump or dump or to strategically play their FUD.  That's we are here to discuss, no?  Attempt to share our ideas and evidence about what we think happened, is happening and is going to happen.

TLDR: no one "fucking" knows  = overstatement of the year (day)(hour)   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
HairyMaclairy
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December 13, 2018, 01:09:53 AM

^ Anyways it would be a short term W if anything. The reality is that no one knows if the price is going to try to break $3000, or bounce to $5000 or both things in sequential order.... No fucking one!

The price might stay flat until Christmas while everyone is guessing which way it will go.

Whales like to dump on holidays.  Christmas unlikely to be pretty.  
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December 13, 2018, 01:13:07 AM

^ Anyways it would be a short term W if anything. The reality is that no one knows if the price is going to try to break $3000, or bounce to $5000 or both things in sequential order.... No fucking one!

Surely, you are stating the obvious when asserting that no one knows, but there are also people with plans, and there are people with better ideas than others about their plans and how much they believe they can either pump or dump or to strategically play their FUD.  That's we are here to discuss, no?  Attempt to share our ideas and evidence about what we think happened, is happening and is going to happen.

TLDR: no one "fucking" knows  = overstatement of the year (day)(hour)   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

No. That would be just speculation.
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December 13, 2018, 01:19:05 AM

No one knows but price is only two dimensional.  It can only go up or down. 

As a general rule, the price tends go in one direction measured on a monthly basis. 

If you are betting that it will go in the same direction it has gone in for the past 3 months, your bet will probably be right. 

After that, it only comes down to risk management.
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December 13, 2018, 01:20:29 AM

Whales like to dump on holidays.  Christmas unlikely to be pretty.

I'll bet those sadistic bastards persuaded their children and parents to buy in at the top and have not told them that they themselves own coins.

For Christmas they'll probably give the family home a 55 inch market feed screen in pride of place in the front room, then go to the toilet and crash the price. While everyone else is watching in tears they'll give them 'impartial' encouragement until they wipe their tears away and trade into his sells with a heart bursting with possibilities.

Then the whale goes outside for a 'smoke' and crashes the price again.
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December 13, 2018, 01:40:51 AM

^ Anyways it would be a short term W if anything. The reality is that no one knows if the price is going to try to break $3000, or bounce to $5000 or both things in sequential order.... No fucking one!

Surely, you are stating the obvious when asserting that no one knows, but there are also people with plans, and there are people with better ideas than others about their plans and how much they believe they can either pump or dump or to strategically play their FUD.  That's we are here to discuss, no?  Attempt to share our ideas and evidence about what we think happened, is happening and is going to happen.

TLDR: no one "fucking" knows  = overstatement of the year (day)(hour)   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

No. That would be just speculation.

When in doubt, stand your ground.

Fair enough.   Tongue Tongue
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December 13, 2018, 01:47:11 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

An attempt at an alternative explanation, with a final question of my own.


Seems to me that you have to buy BTC in order to sell them,

aren't the shorts going to get reckt as some point if people are not willing to sell their BTC and there is not enough BTC to fuel the various contracts that are settled in dollars?

Nope, you don't need to do anything with the underlying (bitcoin) in order to buy/sell futures, which settle in cash (not bitcoin).

I guess that I don't understand then.

I don't see how you can get the price to go down without selling and no one willing to buy at that price, so the price goes lower and lower, until someone is willing to buy BTC at that price.  

Doesn't matter if you are settling in dollars, you still have to sell BTC to get the BTC price do go down and have no buyers.
Indeed, we know the actual volume of futures is small if compared to the underlying (actual btc) market. However, sometimes you only have to nudge things a bit to make them move. Besides, there is leverage, which can make money use more effective.

If you always want to push the same way (for example: down), you will eventually need to recharge; but not as much as the whole market moved (the whole Archimedean buoyant force, so to say) - just a fraction. And you can do it OTC - disturbing the market as little as possible, and deferring/spreading the effect.

One thing I don't understand and I hope someone can help me with: why the asymmetry between shorting and longing? If money on one side (short) implies the same sum is on the other (long), intuition tells me the situation should be symmetrical. Intuition can be wrong, though. So why is it said that whales prefer shorting. Is it easier? Does it pay out better, or what is it?
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December 13, 2018, 01:49:29 AM

^ Anyways it would be a short term W if anything. The reality is that no one knows if the price is going to try to break $3000, or bounce to $5000 or both things in sequential order.... No fucking one!

Surely, you are stating the obvious when asserting that no one knows, but there are also people with plans, and there are people with better ideas than others about their plans and how much they believe they can either pump or dump or to strategically play their FUD.  That's we are here to discuss, no?  Attempt to share our ideas and evidence about what we think happened, is happening and is going to happen.

TLDR: no one "fucking" knows  = overstatement of the year (day)(hour)   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

No. That would be just speculation.

When in doubt, stand your ground.

Fair enough.   Tongue Tongue

I don't have noodles in my ass.
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December 13, 2018, 01:51:54 AM

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

Yes.  

You need to understand the distinction between absolute scarcity and relative scarcity.   https://sfugeog322.wordpress.com/2012/01/19/absolute-and-relative-scarcity/

None of the other commodities which are controlled by the futures market have absolute scarcity.  Gold can easily be mined, pigs can be bred, marginal cropping land can grow more corn.

Many of us, including many on this wall, are now dedicated to slowly, gently buying physical all the way down, no matter how deep it goes or for how long. Holders of last resort will create conditions of absolute scarcity.  

The reality is that the poor performance of gold and silver markets is a reflection of poor organic demand for precious metals, combined with elastic supply.  People like Roach blow this up into a global conspiracy so that they can avoid taking responsibility for their own poor investment decisions.  There is undoubtedly short term manipulation in almost all markets, but whales can only push the price in directions that the price already wants to go.  

For the record I do not think that the current downward price pressure on Bitcoin is a manipulation. I think it is a perfectly natural and organic reaction to a blow off top.


There goes my last sMerit.
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December 13, 2018, 01:54:56 AM

There is a theme being propagated on interwebs that bitcoin will never be able to get from under negative price pressure from CME/CBOE futures (which are cash-settled). Apparently, it happened multiple times before with other commodities.

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

(snip)

I would prefer to think about how we can use intrinsic bitcoin properties to fight CME/CBOE pushing us down (in price).

The question also deserves a (WO)sMerit.
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December 13, 2018, 01:57:36 AM
Merited by dandannn (2)

What's the rationale behind the Bitcorn halving by the way? Why not some sort of continuous curve that converges to zero?

To give us a wee thrill to look forward to every few years?

Perhaps Satoshi was a shameless showman after all. Everyone loves a cliffhanger.

I'd rather be poor and have a full head of hair than be rich and bald

At the age of 43 or whatever I am mine's just starting to fray.

I wouldn't mind at all if it was turning into a widow's peak, that's a good look, but mine's only going directly in the centre of the forehead which looks fucking awful so I'm going to wind up looking like the victim of a driveby lobotomy.

Weird how just a few square cm on one portion of your skull turns you from someone normal-looking to a drooling goon.

Had to shave my head for years and im not even 30 yet, the only person who really gives a shit about your hair is you. If that doesn't make you feel better - you can always get xHomerx10 to make you a hat

 It's as though you read my mind.

 

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December 13, 2018, 02:03:55 AM

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

I would prefer to think about how we can use intrinsic bitcoin properties to fight CME/CBOE pushing us down (in price).
The way I see it, a retail investor or institutional money would likely choose the real thing (settled in kind) over paper stuff that eventually goes bust. Ease of physical delivery is the winning property.
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December 13, 2018, 02:06:44 AM
Merited by Majormax (1)

The way I see it, a retail investor or institutional money would likely choose the real thing (settled in kind) over paper stuff that eventually goes bust. Ease of physical delivery is the winning property.

Sadly as it stands I think it's the opposite.

They're used to paper.  Everything they do is built around it. The futures are provided by names they trust, unlike the physical options. Like most people here they're only after more dollars but at least they're happy to admit it.

They'll have to be dragged into thinking physical is to their benefit. It's alien to how they operate.

There would need to be an army of non traditional finance believers and players to take command of the price via physical options for them to pay attention.
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December 13, 2018, 02:10:07 AM

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

I would prefer to think about how we can use intrinsic bitcoin properties to fight CME/CBOE pushing us down (in price).
The way I see it, a retail investor or institutional money would likely choose the real thing (settled in kind) over paper stuff that eventually goes bust. Ease of physical delivery is the winning property.

Hmmm, not so sure about that... Why would they?

As I see it they only care about ROI, that's why derivatives are so incredibly popular. The last thing most fund managers would want is additional overhead/liabilities like dealing with custody, etc...

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December 13, 2018, 02:11:57 AM

The way I see it, a retail investor or institutional money would likely choose the real thing (settled in kind) over paper stuff that eventually goes bust. Ease of physical delivery is the winning property.

Sadly as it stands I think it's the opposite.

Like most people here they're only after more dollars
So all it boils down to is adoption? Meaning they're after what is perceived as "real" money.

Quote
There would need to be an army of non traditional finance believers and players to take command of the price via physical options for them to pay attention.
Right, I see. Adoption at least at the financial level.

EDIT
Hmmm, not so sure about that... Why would they?
OK OK I got it  Undecided
JayJuanGee
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December 13, 2018, 02:13:55 AM

An attempt at an alternative explanation, with a final question of my own.


Seems to me that you have to buy BTC in order to sell them,

aren't the shorts going to get reckt as some point if people are not willing to sell their BTC and there is not enough BTC to fuel the various contracts that are settled in dollars?

Nope, you don't need to do anything with the underlying (bitcoin) in order to buy/sell futures, which settle in cash (not bitcoin).

I guess that I don't understand then.

I don't see how you can get the price to go down without selling and no one willing to buy at that price, so the price goes lower and lower, until someone is willing to buy BTC at that price.  

Doesn't matter if you are settling in dollars, you still have to sell BTC to get the BTC price do go down and have no buyers.
Indeed, we know the actual volume of futures is small if compared to the underlying (actual btc) market. However, sometimes you only have to nudge things a bit to make them move. Besides, there is leverage, which can make money use more effective.

If you always want to push the same way (for example: down), you will eventually need to recharge; but not as much as the whole market moved (the whole Archimedean buoyant force, so to say) - just a fraction. And you can do it OTC - disturbing the market as little as possible, and deferring/spreading the effect.

One thing I don't understand and I hope someone can help me with: why the asymmetry between shorting and longing? If money on one side (short) implies the same sum is on the other (long), intuition tells me the situation should be symmetrical. Intuition can be wrong, though. So why is it said that whales prefer shorting. Is it easier? Does it pay out better, or what is it?

My sense, regarding shorting, has been that the cascading effect of forcing longs to close remains greater because it causes those longs to have to sell BTC into an already falling market.

The forcing of shorts to close, on the other hand, causes the same selling of BTC however, that selling is happening into a price rising market, which dampens the market momentum rather than exacerbating it.
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