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Question: How long until 70K (credit: Heslo)
1 week - 17 (25.4%)
1 month - 41 (61.2%)
1 year - 0 (0%)
the top is in - math and science confirms it - 9 (13.4%)
Total Voters: 67

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25261163 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13 users deleted.)
bitserve
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December 13, 2018, 06:00:53 PM

All this considerations about selling now will be much more useful and reasonable to have during next bull run. Someone please remember me to sell some then.


haha i will remind you, but don't sell to much of your stash

its important not to get burned when there is panic, panicselling

but also don't burn yourself with selling to fast when we are in a BULLrun....

Nah, I am sure I won't sell MUCH. Just enough to don't feel (100%) stupid during the next bear market. 90% stupid would be fine.

Selling now is pointless for me, except from a trading point of view that I just don't see clear at all.
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El duderino_
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December 13, 2018, 06:01:33 PM

All this considerations about selling now will be much more useful and reasonable to have during next bull run. Someone please remember me to sell some then.


haha i will remind you, but don't sell to much of your stash

its important not to get burned when there is panic, panicselling

but also don't burn yourself with selling to fast when we are in a BULLrun....

Nah, I am sure I won't sell MUCH. Just enough to don't feel stupid during the next bear market.

Selling now is pointless for me, except from a trading point of view that I just don't see clear at all.


mmmmm those moments
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December 13, 2018, 06:02:40 PM

The first time I post here, look forward to comments from everyone.Thank you everyone for watching!

This is a bad first post, and you should feel bad for making it.

-1 WOsMerit

Bob...you have obviously been slacking on your training regimen. Must Rick be notified?


There is an excellent article which I read which explains why odds are stacked against shorts in the long run.  Shorting is always a short term play.  I am going to try to find it. 

hope you can find it, like to read it Smiley


 Roll Eyes

I think that you're being emotional and shouldn't invest at all if you can't handle massive red candles. Selling now is like buying at >15k. Now is not the time to sell, but to keep cost averaging in.

There is no guarantee that bitcoin will really bounce back one day . I believe it will, but I am totally unqualified.

Putting more money is foolish, if you already put all the money you have reserved for high risk assets.

In past it bounced from much lower marketcap, much lower media attention, much lower infrastructure (exchanges, media, wallets, ATMs, stores that accept etc).

It's not certain that it will ever reach 10k again. I believe it will, as everyone here. But how much are you willing to bet that it will? That's he point.
If you already put all that money in that's on you for not keeping enough powder dry. But regardless of how much fiat you have available, selling after a ~90% drop is anything but sensible, especially when that's roughly been the turning point for most assets that plunged and didn't die. Market cap is irrelevant too by the way, at least in the peanut amounts that we are at right now. Apple is still 10x the size of Bitcoin. And that's just one company. Bitcoin is well positioned to become the backbone of future finance.

Just as you said that buying at 15k is stupid, in future selling at 3500 could be a great deal. What is it goes to 1500.? That's a 100 gain if I buy back.
The point is that we're already down 90% and the probability of going down further decreases exponentially as we go down. You're just falling victim to the gambler's fallacy right now.


Edit: What if it goes down to $1? It was $1 before, I could sell one Bitcoin and make 3500 Bitcoins! (fat chance)

Edit2: Invest some money in a book on investing and balancing portfolios. Read it, study it. Everything you post cements the fact that you're just gambling based on emotions. Emotions that traders use to take your money and make profits.

The point is that we're already down 90% and the probability of going down further decreases exponentially as we go down. You're just falling victim to the gambler's fallacy right now.

Agreed. It's an absolute classic noob move but it's also 100% understandable. It's how regular human minds work.

Unfortunately the people you're trading against know this and do not have regular human minds. 

Absolutely!
I could sell everything now & I’d still be massively up on what I originally invested. The thing is though, you just know if I do that the price will go to $6,000 or $7,000 & I’d end up buying back half the amount I currently own which would be fucking retarded.


This. If you want to sell you do it on the way up, not on the way down.

Ahhhhhhhh

Thank you millionaire, gentlemad and lfcbitcoin

I will hold this shit until it goes up. You are right.

Thanks

+10 WOsMerit's
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December 13, 2018, 06:07:31 PM

All this considerations about selling now will be much more useful and reasonable to have during next bull run. Someone please remember me to sell some then.


haha i will remind you, but don't sell to much of your stash

its important not to get burned when there is panic, panicselling

but also don't burn yourself with selling to fast when we are in a BULLrun....
The trick is to decide on targets before the bull run happens, then sell no more and no less at every given price level. Cost average around your chosen price targets too if you want to get fancy.
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December 13, 2018, 06:09:10 PM

Price is stagnating now... you guys see still a downtrend but we are approaching the end of the year.

Difficult to predict but I sniff a pump before the 31th December.


Pump ?


Or Dump?

Which one has the least resistance/support?
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December 13, 2018, 06:10:47 PM

The more I look at graphs the more I think the bottom could be relatively close... 1 month of dumps without stopping and BTC futures starting somewhere before the half of 2019.

The next 2 months will be critical.

If price will stagnate further I will buy a bit at this price and then looking for the next dump, if that one will be the case.
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December 13, 2018, 06:15:04 PM

Price is stagnating now... you guys see still a downtrend but we are approaching the end of the year.

Difficult to predict but I sniff a pump before the 31th December.


Pump ?


Or Dump?

Which one has the least resistance/support?
The last year we saw an insane bull run before the end of the year and then a dramatic crash. Usually among holidays the price moves... since it has already lowered enough I would expect an uptrend unless this is just a transition year and no change of trends until first half of 2019
El duderino_
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December 13, 2018, 06:18:24 PM

There is an excellent article which I read which explains why odds are stacked against shorts in the long run.  Shorting is always a short term play.  I am going to try to find it. 

hope you can find it, like to read it Smiley


 Roll Eyes

ok ok your right, i want someone to read it and explain me in a few sentences.

someone of the homeboys down here in belgium Roll Eyes

(and offcourse i want to know why odds are against shorts ) Grin

BTW The HAT was better Roll Eyes

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December 13, 2018, 06:26:12 PM

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-13/unabashed-bitcoin-bull-thomas-lee-says-the-market-is-wrong

That's a great idea. Next time I fail on a prediction I will say the market is wrong, not me.
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December 13, 2018, 06:26:51 PM


Of course, there are edge cases. Some assets will keep climbing for a very long time, others will go to zero. But that's where diversification and value analysis (should) come into play, not succumbing to human psychology.

Make sure you really understand this and don't fall for the trap of "omg why didn't I sell" if we go down further after the fact. The (mathematically) most sensible thing to do is to keep buying in small batches and decide on different price targets at which you will sell. This includes higher prices at which you take some partial profits, as well as a full stop at which you get out of the game entirely. I'm personally riding down to zero if I have to, but for others it might be more sensible to scrape.

Just be aware of how markets function and decide on your strategy before you get into the game, and then take whatever you get without beating up yourself over it. Invest that energy in learning how to do better next time instead of FUDding/FOMOing out/in.

+1 WOsMerit Smiley
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December 13, 2018, 06:28:03 PM
Last edit: December 13, 2018, 06:40:24 PM by Spaceman_Spiff_Original
Merited by bitserve (1), El duderino_ (1)

There is an excellent article which I read which explains why odds are stacked against shorts in the long run.  Shorting is always a short term play.  I am going to try to find it.  

hope you can find it, like to read it Smiley

I am not sure what the article says, but I can name 2 reasons:

- mathematics: in a short position you can only maximally make 100% of the money you put in (if you don't use leverage).   If you short $100 worth of something, the best you can hope for is it goes to zero and you make $100.  For longs, profit is potentially infinite.  Ask somebody who put in $100 in bitcoin when it was worth $1/BTC how much money they made, it is slightly more than $100.

- inflation: In a world where fiat is the currency, and central banks have a mandate to produce 2% inflation, assets that break even on purchasing power go up in price 2% a year.  That means that shorters lose 2% a year as a baseline.  (shorting something denominated in bitcoin might be less unfavorable for this reason).


EDIT:
- a third reason: risk: a short position is always a margin position with risk of liquidation.  Longs can just keep their position for years without ever having to worry about being wiped out due to market volatility.
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December 13, 2018, 06:34:16 PM

I don’t think we will see $6k again before 2020. 

You literally inviting JJG to call you a party pooper, with that kind of talk.  Roll Eyes

Hairy tends to back up his seemingly bearish calls pretty well, so difficult to argue with this kind of call, even though it seems a bit more pessimistic than what would be preferred.

Certainly, I am not pushing for any kind of narrative, except that the calls (especially about the future, and especially if extreme) are backed up by logic and facts.

In 2015, 2016 and 2017, my calls became a lot more conservative than market performance, so the actual market performance caused my expectations to be exceeded... which is a really great feeling (especially when you are prepared for such because you did not sell a significant portion of your BTC at lower levels).

Even though some people might characterize me as a bit too blind on the bull side of BTC matters, I understand the power of downward momentum and the difficulties and irrationalities to get out of such momentum takes a whole hell of a lot of time and overwhelming fundamentals in which bears are no longer able to push prices down, before they are ready and able to go up.

By the way, the reality of our matter is that our assessment of the BTC market should have become much more bearish after breaking below $6k without any quick spring back.. and we cannot fight the matter that it is likely to take an overwhelming amount of buying to get us back above $6k when so much confidence was lost from that breach and not quick bounce back.  So even though $6k represented about a 70% correction and a great BTC buying opportunity and $3,350 represents about a 83% and even a greater BTC buying opportunity, a lot of people have become too scared to buy and more wiling to sell, even at these prices and even when they should either be buying BTC or just HODLing and waiting to buy more at a lower price, if BTC were to go lower - which is far from certain, but has decent chances based on current actual BTC price dynamics rather than preferred BTC price dynamics.
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December 13, 2018, 06:42:08 PM

Chosing a bottom is never an easy task


They all need to be tested


I have a bit of trouble with the concept of "choosing" a bottom, rather than "finding" a bottom or "predicting" a bottom.

I understand that the meme works better with "choosing," even though there's something that seems missing,... not quite right about the analogy.
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December 13, 2018, 06:44:31 PM

Chosing a bottom is never an easy task


They all need to be tested


I have a bit of trouble with the concept of "choosing" a bottom, rather than "finding" a bottom or "predicting" a bottom.

I understand that the meme works better with "choosing," even though there's something that seems missing,... not quite right about the analogy.

Wow, you manage to even make talking about bottoms a pain in the ass.

I think you are actively trying to encourage 'bash on JJG thursdays'   Wink
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December 13, 2018, 06:49:08 PM
Merited by HairyMaclairy (1)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-12-13/where-does-bitcoin-go-from-here


Bloomberg -
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December 13, 2018, 06:50:46 PM



https://twitter.com/Khil0ne/status/1072224804521107456
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December 13, 2018, 06:53:13 PM

Still buying. Have all the rest of my ammo on buy orders between EUR 2940 and 2800. It's going to the moon from the 200wk moving avg. ...
I know. Just blowing my mouth off.
But...
Sooner or later others will be thinking the same though and then it WILL start going back up again and we wont see this low for years.

Yes. I do think it will go close to 0 some day.... In the mid 2030s
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December 13, 2018, 06:53:59 PM

$6245 is over $5000 Wink

I think we’ll start to move upwards in Feb regardless of BAKKT, even if they delay again.

These prices are literally ‘cheap coin’.
Like Hairy said, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity, I am buying more but I just wish I had a lot more fiat.

It really looks like a good opportunity to buy...
But I believe we are going down even further. I will sell some and rebuy. I just can't see my bags growing heavier if we hit 1500-2500...

Hi

I would be interested to know more.  Can you tell us whether you have sold some previously since the peak, and your thinking?

Well that's what I did:

Buying from 2 to 9k in 2017. Took small profits in 7k.
Saw it go to 20k and, as a newbie I thought: I will necer be able to buy one BTC again, I will not take profits. My average is about 3800usd.
Holding since then.

I believe that BTC will bounce . I has bounced so many times since 2017, and much more since 2013, 2015 etc etc...

But I am not willing to bet so much money. As this is almost gambling

I thought i was ready to lose that money, but when I got red (especially because of ethereum, average 280 USD) I feel that I can't take another 40% dump which is very likely now.

Ethereum is in a bad shape now. Casper is delayed and ICOs are fuked. This affects yhe whole market, even BTC imo...

I am about to sell my ethereum which is like 30% of initial investment.

I am thinking about selling btc too, at least some and try to buy back at lower price (I am so bad at this)

When I sell the chances are that we are going to have a big bounce, so I will tell everyone first so you can make some money lol..

What are yours thinking?


Ultimately you have to decide for yourself.

It seems a bit of a deviation from good practice to sell on the way down, although I am not opposed to such in Ethereum because I have almost no good thoughts about ethereum beyond that it is a platform for scams, a distraction from bitcoin and even a misleading attempt to pose as sound money (when it is none of that).  BTC's value comes from it's soundness in money, so best case would be to continue to buy on the way down or at least just keep dollar cost averaging, otherwise just HODL and save money for dips (if they come), and third preference would be to sell a tiny bit of BTC (just for comfort and insurance to be able to use that money to buy back, if such further dip happens and be willing to lock into that decision with a down buy back plan that makes you comfortable and not to use that money for buying back in other circumstances unless a considerable change in the market happens, which could take several months or even a year to play out).
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December 13, 2018, 06:59:52 PM

It is risky short, since they do not have many trips to the bottom.
They are close to a short squeeze.
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December 13, 2018, 07:04:32 PM

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-13/unabashed-bitcoin-bull-thomas-lee-says-the-market-is-wrong

That's a great idea. Next time I fail on a prediction I will say the market is wrong, not me.
To be fair, it is wrong. Crypto as a whole is not trading against fundamentals.

In the case of Bitcoin that's understandable, but when it comes to credit platforms, exchanges and stuff like that you can estimate the fundamental value through time and then realize that it's vastly over- and undervalued most of the time (think stuff like BNB). That's called market inefficiency and decreasing with maturity of the market.
Right now it's fairly easy (albeit cumbersome due to high amount of shitcoin projects) to identify future winners and losers and the profit margins are absurd. As crypto matures finding these ROIs will become increasingly difficult though, and not just due to the increasing market cap and lower implied upside potential, but due to an increasing amount of value investors skimming the markets.
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