Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Davyd05]

People sell but the price goes up  

Cmon did one mistake by selling yesterday, can we please go back to 800 for a second  

anything is possible. but never sell or buy in a panic.. evaluate..evaluate evaluate and dont trust anyone here to be looking out for you.

[seriouscoin]

People Noobs sell but hence the price goes up  

Cmon did one mistake by selling yesterday, can we please go back to 800 for a second  

[spooderman]

People sell but the price goes up  

Cmon did one mistake by selling yesterday, can we please go back to 800 for a second  

if we did, you'd think "why buy now? It'll go lower"

[Nemo1024]

People sell but the price goes up  

Cmon did one mistake by selling yesterday, can we please go back to 800 for a second  

if we did, you'd think "why buy now? It'll go lower"

Was there, done that, got the absence of the increas of my BTC holding to prove it.

[UnDerDoG81]

People sell but the price goes up  

Cmon did one mistake by selling yesterday, can we please go back to 800 for a second  

if we did, you'd think "why buy now? It'll go lower"

Probably

But really, I regret it so much (again) that I speculated (once again wrong) and sold, even though I tell my self I will hold forever.

[Nemo1024]

There was a large dump on Bitstamp. A retraction before a jump forward, or have I just walked into a bull trap?

[ChartBuddy]

[Nemo1024]

People sell but the price goes up  

Cmon did one mistake by selling yesterday, can we please go back to 800 for a second  

if we did, you'd think "why buy now? It'll go lower"

Probably

But really, I regret it so much (again) that I speculated (once again wrong) and sold, even though I tell my self I will hold forever.

I've been there. The worst type of sell is the "damn, i could have sold at the top but didnt, lets sell now and hope it goes down"

Well, if you missed 1200, sold at 900 and bought at 550, then you are doing ok. However, the statement above holds in 99% of cases.

Now, I bought on Bitstamp at 890, should I sell now at 860, to re-buy back at 800?  

[seriouscoin]

There was a large dump on Bitstamp. A retraction before a jump forward, or have I just walked into a bull trap?

LOL you call that a dump?

Bitstamp is so lame....

[Dragonkiller]

People sell but the price goes up  

Cmon did one mistake by selling yesterday, can we please go back to 800 for a second  

if we did, you'd think "why buy now? It'll go lower"

Probably

But really, I regret it so much (again) that I speculated (once again wrong) and sold, even though I tell my self I will hold forever.

I've been there. The worst type of sell is the "damn, i could have sold at the top but didnt, lets sell now and hope it goes down"

Well, if you missed 1200, sold at 900 and bought at 550, then you are doing ok. However, the statement above holds in 99% of cases.

Now, I bought on Bitstamp at 890, should I sell now at 860, to re-buy back at 800?  

Don't think it will go below 850, if it does, I've been caught

[merkin51]

People sell but the price goes up  

Cmon did one mistake by selling yesterday, can we please go back to 800 for a second  

if we did, you'd think "why buy now? It'll go lower"

Probably

But really, I regret it so much (again) that I speculated (once again wrong) and sold, even though I tell my self I will hold forever.

I've been there. The worst type of sell is the "damn, i could have sold at the top but didnt, lets sell now and hope it goes down"

Did exactly the same in this recent crash... got shook out at the bottom thinking it had further to go, then frantically bought back in at a $150 loss. Think I'm just going to hold for ever until the moon or zero :/

[gandhibt]

So, all you folks who try and sell at the start of a big crash to buy in nearer the bottom. Do you keep your coins in an exchange ready for such an event, or do you move them across when you think the time is near?

I saw there was a guy in this thread who went from 50 to 70 doing so - that doesn't sound like day trade play money. I'd be concerned about leaving a big stash of BTC in an exchange given how Wild West some of the BTC world is. I guess the chances are small if it's just temporary, but would any of you be concerned that BitStamp or Gox could get hacked, or go out of business, for example?

I have 2/3 of my stash in bitstamp and 1/3 in wallet. I think the risk of losing coins in bitstamp is so small that I'm willing to take that risk, because it lowers other risks. Bitcoin as whole has risks, wallet has risks, bitstamp has risks, how big is the risk and how much can you protect your wealth are the important questions.

For me trading is about lowering the risk of losing money, I think buy and hold has more risks than low risk trading, even thou you have to keep majority of your coins in exchange.

Here's a pic that maybe tells something about my mentality:



In this case you are losing coins, but your wealth is better protected. It's like paying "crash insurance". And if you do this always, someday you will win big when big crash comes. This isn't as easy to do as it seems in the pic.

The most important thing in low risk trading is buying back in with loss and this could be majority of your trades. Winning trades are just so much bigger that this doesn't just lower your risk of losing wealth but it also is better for your coin stash in the long run. (maybe)

EDIT. One important thing to add is that I'm doing this full-time and has been doing and studying this over an year full-time. Don't trade if you don't have time to sacrifice to it.

Hahaha, very nice to see something I do myself put into a crude pic

But really, I have a similar line of thought in my trading. It's a balance... on the one hand, I believe we are now in the "land grab" phase. Forgot who called it that first. But for land grab to be useful, land must have max value in the long run, i.e. BTC must succeed (where "succeed" is somewhat complicated to define... I'll just say I don't believe in the binary model many here seem to follow, where BTC is either 0 or 1 trillion per coin).

So the hedge against land grab being useless (because BTC fails) is to secure fiat profits if there's indications that we're going down for reals this time. And since all of this is based in a purely probabilistic setting, all actions are based on mixed strategies, in game theory terminology.

So a) I try to trade swings profitably, b) avoid swings if I can't trade them profitably (because I missed the inflection point), and c) in violation of a) and b), trade swings *at a btc loss* if I have reasons to believe it is a necessary hedge against total fiat loss.

Thank you for your input once again Risks are interesting and often unnoticed.

[Davyd05]

I am assuming we finish close to 900.. and will struggle to stay in the 850+ range unless buyers wire transfer click over and they really think the choo choo is ready to depart again

[seriouscoin]

People sell but the price goes up  

Cmon did one mistake by selling yesterday, can we please go back to 800 for a second  

if we did, you'd think "why buy now? It'll go lower"

Probably

But really, I regret it so much (again) that I speculated (once again wrong) and sold, even though I tell my self I will hold forever.

I've been there. The worst type of sell is the "damn, i could have sold at the top but didnt, lets sell now and hope it goes down"

Did exactly the same in this recent crash... got shook out at the bottom thinking it had further to go, then frantically bought back in at a $150 loss. Think I'm just going to hold for ever until the moon or zero :/

wow.... one noob has learnt!

Better yet, move your coins to cold storage and sit happy.

[UnDerDoG81]

People sell but the price goes up  

Cmon did one mistake by selling yesterday, can we please go back to 800 for a second  

if we did, you'd think "why buy now? It'll go lower"

Probably

But really, I regret it so much (again) that I speculated (once again wrong) and sold, even though I tell my self I will hold forever.

I've been there. The worst type of sell is the "damn, i could have sold at the top but didnt, lets sell now and hope it goes down"

Well, if you missed 1200, sold at 900 and bought at 550, then you are doing ok. However, the statement above holds in 99% of cases.

Now, I bought on Bitstamp at 890, should I sell now at 860, to re-buy back at 800?  

Yeah, yesterday I sold @780 because I thought it is a top, then it went down to 770 and started to go up and I thought: hmm buy back @800? No it´ll go down, buy back @820? No it´ll go down, buy back @840? No... 860? No...

[seriouscoin]

I am assuming we finish close to 900.. and will struggle to stay in the 850+ range unless buyers wire transfer click over and they really think the choo choo is ready to depart again

I just load up a wire today.

If it goes below 850, i will buy 500+ coins. Keep selling bears.

[seriouscoin]

People sell but the price goes up  

Cmon did one mistake by selling yesterday, can we please go back to 800 for a second  

if we did, you'd think "why buy now? It'll go lower"

Probably

But really, I regret it so much (again) that I speculated (once again wrong) and sold, even though I tell my self I will hold forever.

I've been there. The worst type of sell is the "damn, i could have sold at the top but didnt, lets sell now and hope it goes down"

Well, if you missed 1200, sold at 900 and bought at 550, then you are doing ok. However, the statement above holds in 99% of cases.

Now, I bought on Bitstamp at 890, should I sell now at 860, to re-buy back at 800?  

Yeah, yesterday I sold @780 because I thought it is a top, then it went down to 770 and started to go up and I thought: hmm buy back @800? No it´ll go down, buy back @820? No it´ll go down, buy back @840? No... 860? No...

You really deserve it. Sorry.

[barbs]

looks like he's got a chance to rebuy

[seriouscoin]

looks like he's got a chance to rebuy

lol he wont.... he will be like "what if it goes lower" ....

[Nemo1024]

Damn, I am locked in.

I said that I am the best contrary indicator. When I said that I bought at 890, then was the time to get out.

Now I am not going to sell at a loss (for once), so it will surely go even lower. (If I sold now, it would rebound back immediately).