Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Spaceman_Spiff]

The time to sell was at 1100-1200. Buying had really died down, and the tops were flat. You could kind of justify selling at 950 now, I guess, but if you sold at, like, 600, that's kind of silly. Even if you think it will continue to go down, at least wait for the almost inevitable bounce.

So you are saying that we should have sold at the high, and not at the low?  Well go figure... 

[octaft]

The time to sell was at 1100-1200. Buying had really died down, and the tops were flat. You could kind of justify selling at 950 now, I guess, but if you sold at, like, 600, that's kind of silly. Even if you think it will continue to go down, at least wait for the almost inevitable bounce.

So you are saying that we should have sold at the high, and not at the low?  Well go figure... 

The more important point was the not selling at 600 part.

[adamstgBit]

ok so above 900  in the next few hours?

[seriouscoin]

The time to sell was at 1100-1200. Buying had really died down, and the tops were flat. You could kind of justify selling at 950 now, I guess, but if you sold at, like, 600, that's kind of silly. Even if you think it will continue to go down, at least wait for the almost inevitable bounce.

So you are saying that we should have sold at the high, and not at the low?  Well go figure... 

The more important point was the not selling at 600 part.

Actually the most important point is..... hindsight.

Did Stewie make you a time machine?

[seriouscoin]

One of my friends (who owns 0 btc) once said "Just sell high and buy when it drops and you will have unlimited btc"

Why do you like to hang out with idiots?

Dont you want to join the "elite" class? drop any idiots from your friends circle.

[rpietila]

True. But his approach is still the most profitable one depending on how high you place the chance for total/near total failure of BTC. Don't tell me you're 100% sure BTC will make it?!

I would very much like to see his approach formulated in mathematical way, so that comparison to SSS could be made (the latter is a fully automatic strategy which in my opinion hedges against the total failure better, but cannot say for certain before gandhi provides the details of his)

[micalith]

ok so above 900  in the next few hours?

for bitstamp, yes, and not before a bit more of a lenghy but not too deep dip

[fr33d0miz3r]

broken trendline, btw

and "Three black crows" pattern



So, that's what we have seen last days:

[Davyd05]

broken trendline, btw

and "Three black crows" pattern

yes.. it broke Friday cool story 3 days late.

yes I'm grumpy.

[fr33d0miz3r]

yes.. it broke Friday cool story 3 days late.

It's just reminder for those who haven't sold yet  

[adamstgBit]

broken trendline, btw

and "Three black crows" pattern

yes.. it broke Friday cool story 3 days late.

it broke on a butt load of volume

I wouldn't be surprised to see the bitcoin market do somthing its never done b4, ignore TA and go CHOOOO CHOOOOO MOTHERFUCKERS

[oda.krell]

True. But his approach is still the most profitable one depending on how high you place the chance for total/near total failure of BTC. Don't tell me you're 100% sure BTC will make it?!

I would very much like to see his approach formulated in mathematical way, so that comparison to SSS could be made (the latter is a fully automatic strategy which in my opinion hedges against the total failure better, but cannot say for certain before gandhi provides the details of his)

Not sure I know what you want to see. Expected values of the two strategies compared? I'm only half in on the details of your SSS (I get the gist, I think: regular cash outs at likely inflection points, right ), but how do you calculate EV for your theory? Based on a simple price projection over time? If so, the comparison will fail:

a) ghandibit's method is based on the non-zero possibility of a (near) total failure of BTC (if I understand him right). As in: the chance to "rescue" at least a substantial part of your fiat profits if BTC ever really really tanks. So to compare his and your method, you both need to quantify the likelihood of prices over time, not just a single 'most-likely price'.

b) more generally, his approach is still not completely spelled out: his graph shows buying back at a loss, but in his explanation he calls it "crash insurance", so the idea is probably that there are indeed conditions where you either never buy back (BTC failure), or actually manage to buy back at a btc profit (a very deep price well). So he would need to specify those conditions before it can be formally modeled and compared.

[ChartBuddy]

[adamstgBit]

yes.. it broke Friday cool story 3 days late.

It's just reminder for those who haven't sold yet  

selll aLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL the ci0nz!!!!2!!!!!

to me!
 

[octaft]

The time to sell was at 1100-1200. Buying had really died down, and the tops were flat. You could kind of justify selling at 950 now, I guess, but if you sold at, like, 600, that's kind of silly. Even if you think it will continue to go down, at least wait for the almost inevitable bounce.

So you are saying that we should have sold at the high, and not at the low?  Well go figure... 

The more important point was the not selling at 600 part.

Actually the most important point is..... hindsight.

Did Stewie make you a time machine?

*shrug* I guess I got lucky, then.

[Davyd05]

yes.. it broke Friday cool story 3 days late.

It's just reminder for those who haven't sold yet  

selll aLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL the ci0nz!!!!2!!!!!

to me!
 

no ..you'll just swap em for fiat and buy WINE LOL.. but now I see the full red candles as you drinking wine.. and green ones when your out to buy more .. I am still joking though ..

[rpietila]

True. But his approach is still the most profitable one depending on how high you place the chance for total/near total failure of BTC. Don't tell me you're 100% sure BTC will make it?!

I would very much like to see his approach formulated in mathematical way, so that comparison to SSS could be made (the latter is a fully automatic strategy which in my opinion hedges against the total failure better, but cannot say for certain before gandhi provides the details of his)

Not sure I know what you want to see. Expected values of the two strategies compared? I'm only half in on the details of your SSS (I get the gist, I think: regular cash outs at likely inflection points, right ), but how do you calculate EV for your theory? Based on a simple price projection over time? If so, the comparison will fail:

a) ghandibit's method is based on the non-zero possibility of a (near) total failure of BTC (if I understand him right). As in: the chance to "rescue" at least a substantial part of your fiat profits if BTC ever really really tanks. So to compare his and your method, you both need to quantify the likelihood of prices over time, not just a single 'most-likely price'.

b) more generally, his approach is still not completely spelled out: his graph shows buying back at a loss, but in his explanation he calls it "crash insurance", so the idea is probably that there are indeed conditions where you either never buy back (BTC failure), or actually manage to buy back at a btc profit (a very deep price well). So he would need to specify those conditions before it can be formally modeled and compared.

Read my SSS, so that you can comment on it based on knowledge what it is.

Gandhi's model looks nice, but is currently expressed in a way that leaves everything to active portfolio manager. So it is not a strategy that 99% could effectively employ, since they are not portfolio managers.

I am interested because of interest. If he can express some of the mathematical principles, I could use this on my work. Even if it'd be too difficult for the 99%

[tarmi]

it broke on a butt load of volume

I wouldn't be surprised to see the bitcoin market do somthing its never done b4, ignore TA and go CHOOOO CHOOOOO MOTHERFUCKERS

like what?

big holders pumping the price after that trend reversal?

good luck with that!

[Davyd05]

it broke on a butt load of volume

I wouldn't be surprised to see the bitcoin market do somthing its never done b4, ignore TA and go CHOOOO CHOOOOO MOTHERFUCKERS

like what?

big holders pumping the price after that trend reversal?

good luck with that!

you do know the price dropped largely impart to people spreading mass fear that China blanket banned bitcoin right? And that the Chinese exchange lead all "weak"end while bears sold em cheap coins.. further extrapolated by speculators noticing the trend changing and further pushing it down.

[tarmi]

it broke on a butt load of volume

I wouldn't be surprised to see the bitcoin market do somthing its never done b4, ignore TA and go CHOOOO CHOOOOO MOTHERFUCKERS

like what?

big holders pumping the price after that trend reversal?

good luck with that!

you do know the price only dropped cause people spread mass fear that china blanket banned bitcoin right? And that the Chinese exchange lead all "weak"end while bears sold em cheap coins.. further extrapolated by speculators noticing the trend changing and further pushing it down.

I dont buy nor sell on any news.

like somebody already said> news follow price, not the other way around.