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Question: Which price is bitcoin going to reach first? (credits to Jay)
$25K - 56 (34.4%)
$50K - 107 (65.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25377180 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13 users deleted.)
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June 18, 2021, 03:07:04 AM


I see your point, and have also wondered about the one sided nature of it.  At the same time I am aware sattelite is used well especially in asymmetric data exchanges where what you download is greater than what you broadcast.  You can broadcast a transaction with a small amount of data, on maybe a cell phone network, but recieve the big data from the "bird".  AND it can allow a connection to the blockchain in remote places.


Absolutely. I actually had "Starband" back when I first moved to the US. It actually had satellite uplink that was low bandwidth and I think the DirecTV one used phone lines for the up-link as you say and now there is Musk's Starweb (in beta but usable). These are good enough solutions and you could certainly build something which could benefit from a "broadcast" aspect of transmitting transactions and blocks but that's not what Blockstream have done with this nor does it seem to be their use case for this. They really seem to be aiming for a read-only model in a way which breaks easily. If I worked hard, I could probably come up with a couple of corner cases where it would be beneficial but it really just doesn't seem to have been thought through beyond the "cool" factor.

Still, not my money so it's not like I'm mad about it or anything.
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June 18, 2021, 03:12:57 AM

In most cases, instead of being fancy, people should just invest in SPY or mutual fund equivalent from Vanguard or VTSAX.
Bonds, shmonds at 0-1.5% are NOT it, unless you are an institution which uses leverage.
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June 18, 2021, 03:33:42 AM

This is next level of scamming.

Be more vigilant guys…!!!

So apparently scammers are mailing fake hardware wallets and pretending to be from Ledger with a letter signed by CEO.

Details here https://twitter.com/bitcoinmagazine/status/1405572965480153095?s=21

Apparently based on the Ledger leak. I'll be interested to receive one of these. I wonder what criteria they are using to select from the list.
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June 18, 2021, 04:01:25 AM


Explanation
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June 18, 2021, 04:30:06 AM

https://i.imgur.com/oPyQKRz.jpg

The crashening continues!

shut the f*ck up! if we need you to make a statement on the current situation you're always not available.  Roll Eyes

I sometimes get busy trading sound money, like ripple, and managing my safe, low yield USD savings deposits.

yep. like my $350,000 in a  401k in low yield us bonds.

pays me 1.5% so I lose about 2 % due to inflation.

but it looks like more $ every year.


I do not disagree with your overall point philip, that 401ks that are highly allocated towards US Bonds are going to have returns that are likely NOT going to either keep up with the reported inflation and are likely to have returns that considerably underperform actual on the street inflation.

Nonetheless, I am a little bit confused about your description of your returns and even your choice to keep your 401k heavily weighted in US Bonds versus other kinds of investments that tend to be allowed through 401ks.

Of course, different 401ks are going to have differing kinds of options, and probably in the past 25 years or so, many of the companies that offer 401ks have provided more kinds of options but still the account holder frequently needs to make allocation choices regarding how much risk to take, and sometimes mistakes can be made when converting from risky to non-risky or back and forth regarding possibly missing out on  profits in terms of either allocating too riskily or even being too conservative, which also has its performance costs.

I quickly glanced at my 401k, and I would assert that I had always kept it moderately risky for the 25 years that I have been in it (except maybe the past 5 years I had moved some stock allocations to bonds.. for some strange reason of my 2016 thinkings) and at any given point, I would have considered that my timeline for withdrawal was 10 years or more before I would be drawing from it, and I still feel that my timeline is 10 years or more.  In any event my average return per year over the past 8-9 years or so has remained on average between about 4.83% and 5.66% per year.  I will admit that in 2016 some kinds of weird corrections were happening in the then stock markets, and so I did end up reallocating in some kinds of ways to be more conservative... and even with my reallocations towards more conservative, currently my 401k performance still is averaging about 5.66% per year as I type this post... but surely there are yearly fluctuations that even seem to considerably affect the overall average per year performance, too.

I am not sure if I am calculating exactly correctly, but my 401k performance of the past 8-9 years looks something like this:

Year               Yearly           Overall average yearly performance (accounting for current year)
2013               21.27%                  5.44%
2014               6.38%                     5.50%
2015               -0.93%                  5.07%
2016               2.58%                  4.92%
2017               11.23%                  5.29%
2018               -3.02%                  4.83%
2019               14.35%                  5.33%
2020                11.68%                  5.65%
2021 (so far)      5.92%                  5.66%


Of course, I am a little embarrassed about such mediocre performance of that fund and even if the performance might be keeping up with inflation.

In late 2013, when I first got into bitcoin, I had discontinued contributing to the 401k, so my search into other investments was meant to attempt to substitute for my historical 401k contributions.  In that regard, I thought that I would prefer if my bitcoin investment were to at least perform on par with the returns of the overall 401k performance. 

In late 2014, I had considered withdrawing up to half my 401k value and putting it into BTC, but I rejected doing that because I had concluded that I had enough value invested into BTC, I did not need to be putting in even more and then if BTC were to go to zero or some major underperformance, I would have been kind of fucked in terms of investing those additional funds and feeling as if I were not diversified enough in order to prepare for a variety of possible scenarios.

It seems that we are going to be lucky to NOT have 10% price inflation this year, and who knows how the coming years are going to play out.. 5% to 10% might be reasonable for each of the years: 2022, 2023 and 2024, perhaps?.. but still it is a kind of de-spiriting situation for anyone who is not getting something close to those kinds of returns with their investments (and their value holdings... sure maybe property owners and equity owners might be able to hang on.. maybe? maybe?).  I am o.k. continuing to hold value in my 401k - mostly because I already have bitcoin, but I am still thinking that my bitcoin investment is really the main investment giving me some level of contentment in terms of what kinds of price increases that are continued to be expected in the coming years.

Its the wifes not mine. I used her reluctance to do anything but that as justification to do btc.

Thank god as it allows me no fear about having the btc.
My goal is to exceed her 401k in 2022 via btc.

which is feasable but may take till 2023.
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June 18, 2021, 05:01:25 AM


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June 18, 2021, 05:48:07 AM
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[edited out]

Its the wifes not mine. I used her reluctance to do anything but that as justification to do btc.

Thank god as it allows me no fear about having the btc.
My goal is to exceed her 401k in 2022 via btc.

which is feasable but may take till 2023.

I had some kind of subliminal competition with myself too in regards to my 401k.. or trying to figure out how to potentially match it's performance or the amount that I contributed into BTC as compared with the amount that I had contributed into the 401k.

In some sense, I had a pretty loose objective that was hoping to perhaps get some kind of parity after 20 or so years, in the event that both my 401k and my BTC funds were still going down the road... so maybe in that sense, I would have similar quantities of value in each of them.

I will admit that I did cheat a bit with my BTC as compared with my 401k, because my 401k had a lot of limits in the beginning in terms of how much I was allowed to contribute, but it also had matching funds up to the 5% of my salary.. so I had been investing at least the minimum of the 5% of my salary for the matching and then I believe I would usually go up to the maximum that I was able to contribute for each of the years as well in terms of the 401k rules that were in place.  So I was no longer able to contribute into my 401k by late 2013, and that was about the time that my BTC investing kicked in with a bit of a front loading attempt.

Pretty much I invested in much shorter period of time into the BTC as compared with the 401k, and slowed down my BTC investment rate after the first year of somewhat front loading my investment, but still kept the amount going into BTC in a kind of DCA approach, and by early 2017 the BTC and the 401k were around the same value, and even kind of coincidentally, I had placed a similar amount of value into BTC too, but of course in BTC there were no matching funds.  Of course, by late 2017, the BTC was several magnitudes higher in value than the 401k, but the BTC price correction back down to between $3k and $6k would have brought my BTC  to ONLY 2x or 4x the size of the 401k.

TLDR:  A lot can be done with 0.21BTC, since that seems to be our new BTC accumulation goal.....another BIG run in BTC prices, and the BTC accumulation goal might need to go down further because perhaps at that point (let's say $300k), 0.21 BTC will surely become harder to accumulate because at $300k, our 0.21 BTC would be worth $63k.. based on maths and science.  It surely seems that now 0.21 BTC is within reasonable reach, and then of course, if the 0.21 BTC is reached then maybe the next goal would be 1 BTC and then perhaps 2 BTC and further goals along the way.. but not always easy to double your BTC stash without a decent amount of passage of time.. and ongoing reasonable and prudent BTC price appreciation..

Of course, $300k is far from guaranteed as well, but I would suspect that some BTC HODLers/accumulators will be finding their 401ks to be met or exceeded by the time BTC prices were to reach that number, if we might get there this cycle.. perhaps?  So in essence meeting seemingly lofty goals of overall BTC value can be reached by either BTC accumulation or price appreciation or both, and of course, we have seen how BTC's past price performance has actually caused what seems to be outrageous price appreciations, even with relatively small (seemingly for ants) investment levels.
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June 18, 2021, 06:01:35 AM


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June 18, 2021, 06:15:54 AM

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June 18, 2021, 06:54:26 AM

... shure, this Tether critics must be FUD, right ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-whuXHSL1Pg


don't trust - verify
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June 18, 2021, 07:01:25 AM


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June 18, 2021, 07:41:24 AM
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Quote
Bitcoin hodlers have been incredibly resilient through this 50% correction. More so than 2013, or 2017.

Proof? Look at UTXO Value-Weighted Mean Age (Days). It trends downwards in bull markets as newcomers store value in "younger coins" - no decrease like '17.


https://twitter.com/lucasnuzzi/status/1405633076479266821
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June 18, 2021, 07:48:30 AM
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as of now I have no more lines than that below. a simple trend line on the two lows of candles close (4H) and the Fibonacci Fan lines (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%). IMO all lines are valid because there were fights between sellers and buyers on all lines.

the weekend will tell if we will have a usual dump at the weekend or not. but if we will go more deeper the second Higher Low (HL) is not valid anymore.  Roll Eyes

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June 18, 2021, 08:01:25 AM


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June 18, 2021, 08:33:14 AM
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Bitcoin hodlers have been incredibly resilient through this 50% correction. More so than 2013, or 2017.

Proof? Look at UTXO Value-Weighted Mean Age (Days). It trends downwards in bull markets as newcomers store value in "younger coins" - no decrease like '17.
In 2017 there was a reason to move Bitcoin to a new address, so you could sell Forkcoins without risking your Bitcoin.
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THE NEXT 2.4 YEARS ARE CRITICAL🍄💊


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June 18, 2021, 08:55:27 AM
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... shure, this Tether critics must be FUD, right ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-whuXHSL1Pg


don't trust - verify






Verification complete
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June 18, 2021, 09:01:34 AM


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June 18, 2021, 10:58:50 AM

If The Darkest Night Is Before The Dawn, Then The Brightest Day Is Before The Sunset. $BTC
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Explanation
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