Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world.  Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

But if falls apart at the bolded bit. Just stop there. Anything after that isn't a thought experiment, it's just nonsense. It's pure bullshittery and I hope he would have admitted that if called on it.

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[JayJuanGee]

Oh gawd, Dabs.  

My first quickie read of your above paragraph caused me to consider that you were referring to the BTC portion that you are speculation to NOT have been cashed out, and then I saw that you were speculating in regards to the dollar value...

Holy sheeeeeiiitttt.

For sure, I do not mind speculating in terms of attempting to dollar pegging of value, but I surely do not consider it to be healthy for guys to be planning to lump sum cash out their BTC into dollars and then feel some kind of assurance regarding that kind of financial planning.. even though I understand that a lot of normies do want to gravitate towards that kind of dollar denominated (rather than dollar pegging) thinkenings.

For sure, BTC HODLers should be attempting to remain in the real world, and it is quite doubtful that the dollar is going to completely go away anytime in the near future, even though we have been witnessing extreme levels of ongoing abuse, in terms of the ongoing and seemingly ever increasing levels of outrageous irresponsibilities in terms of dollar printing.. but I really find it problematic that anyone with any kind of semblance of bitcoin conviction would be wanting to frame bitcoin strategies in terms of lump sum cashening out of BTC in order to secure some kind of dollar denominated future...

Aren't we here (meaning in bitcoin) in the first place, because we are having troubles in terms of having a lot of faith in the dollar being able to retain value?

*edit* nah, both addresses kept on moving. The first one is probably an exchange address. I'm not sure about the other one, but it kept moving and sending the coins somewhere else.

Fair points regarding trying to speculate regarding places that the BTC may have gone.

I thinkenings of it this way, if I (personally, me) had 750 BTC in cold storage for 9 years, and I needed to access that today (or yesterday, or any time this year 2021), after seeing its dollar value go fluctuate between $20k up to $60k in the first quarter of 2021 alone, I would probably do something similar.

Oh gawd, Dabs.  You are both showing that you have no where close to 750BTC, and you seem to be creating some kind of artificial hypothetical that is not going to apply in terms of considering that someone who has 750 BTC would be the ONLY wealth that they have, so they have to engage in some kind of desperate reallocation, after a 50% BTC price drop...

Sure, there might be some legitimacy in your claim that the person had shaved off some BTC through an exchange after a 50% drop in price, but still seems quite presumptuous to be ascribing so many specifics.

Cash out 100 BTC, save the remaining 650 BTC and put back into cold storage (or in this case, the owner did something else, perhaps he split it some more into more parts depending on how he thinks it should be managed.)

So yes, many of us are here because the fiat world is devaluing, but at the same time we also know the dollars and the fiats are not disappearing soon.

Considering that the average person can survive on approximately $40k in expenses per year (or less), then $1m ought to last that person at least 30 years, even if conservatively invested in traditional equities/fixed income assets. $3m therefore will be about the same thing for anyone with less than $120k in annual expenses.

Most people will have more than 9 years with that kind of fiat cash dollars, even if they don't invest in anything and just dump it in a cash "savings" account, or spending account.

Fair enough.

The remaining 650 BTC (worth at least $20m USD), I probably will not need myself, as I'm sure the real owner of that address did not need it for 9 years, can be put back into cold storage and not touched for at least another 9 to 10 to 20, maybe to 30 years.

 Seems to be assuming a lot in regards to that 750 BTC (reduced to 650 BTC) was all the BTC and wealth that the person had.

I did not bother tracking where the rest moved though, so I don't know what could have happened to it. The wise thing to try to do is obfuscate the trail using whatever tech there is now, such as CoinJoins like Wasabi or Samourai or putting it into multi-sig, or if you trust an exchange to handle that kind of coin temporarily before sending it back to cold storage.

 Sure no problem with that.

Personally, I would divide that into maybe 65 different addresses of 10 BTC each (or even smaller), whatever I can handle just thinkenings about it, just so I can keep them separate.

Of course 10 BTC per address is more manageable than 650 BTC in one address.. cannot argue with you about that... especially maybe 750 BTC might have only been worth less than $1k or maybe $5k at the most 9 years ago... .. so sure there might not have been much consideration of any kind of need to create separate addresses (or wallets) for those 750 coins 9 years ago... and sure even more than 1BTC per address might draw more attention these days, so there might even be some concern about dividing lower than 10 BTC per address or even below 1 BTC per address for some addresses, even though they might be more difficult to manage.. and even having equally sized addresses might not be any kind of strict requirement in keeping track... in terms of how many addresses to divide into and how much to keep in each.. some with larger quantities of BTC and some with smaller quantities of BTC.
 

Even if I did not have to use the cash, allowing a budget of at most 10 BTC a year, the stash could last 65 years, at whatever price it is then.

 Hm? that is a strange way of framing the matter, especially since we likely can project that bitcoin is  very likely to have considerable price fluctuations in the next 65 years or so, presuming that anyone who would have 650-750 BTC might want to be projecting 65 years into the future.. sure consider that a high school or college student might have easily acquired that quantity of BTC.. but still seems a weird way to frame thinking about the future in terms of 10 BTC per year... or anything like that kind of framing of the time/value expectation matter.

Of course, if in the next 10 to 20 years, we see that fiat is seriously and miserably failing according to whatever standards we believe in the future, then surely, just HODL onto the BTC and spend as needed. Or don't spend, try to make the $3 million dollars in cash last as long as you can.

If someone has 750 BTC currently (more than $22 million currently), I am not sure why there might be any need to strive to be frugal with $3 million of it.. again presuming that $22 million might be the total wealth.. which also comes off as a wee bit of a stretch as I already mentioned.
 

Of course, this all depends on what is one's current income and spending numbers. The usual 4% rule and $40k annual expenses are just arbitrary numbers. Some have it higher or lower.

Yes.. we know that 4% is a good starting point, especially when considering a variety of traditional investments, and a presumptively diversified portfolio of investments based on such presumptively traditionally diversified portfolio.  

So, yeah, if we might not all be on the same page regarding the method for accounting an projecting, then starting out with 4% of the portfolio as a safe withdrawal rate and even that every million dollars might bring $40k of annual income, then that could give us some ideas for starting points in terms of the entry point living expenses of normies... So, sure, if the basics are covered, then we might be able to extrapolate from there some levels of wealth or abilities to live extravagantly beyond the basics, too... so of course, we are not approaching the topic from greatly divergent starting points, but still seems that there might be a considerable amount of errors in trying to ascribe too many details regarding how to manage particulars, but sure let's say that the current value of the portfolio is 750 BTC which is currently over $22 million then we could very well attribute $40k x 22 = $880k of annual income at current values to such an investment portfolio, which would thereby generate around $73k of income per month.

Of course, if someone does not feel that they need that level of income, and lives off of a much lower quantity of income, then the remainder would presumably stay in BTC, so sure there are a lot of ways to project how much income to draw right now from the investment portfolio and whether that might be sustainable.  Of course, I personally have a preference for the 208-week moving average, so I personally would consider the amount that I have and the limits that I would be willing to withdraw in a different framework... so let me just put it out there in this context.  The 208-week moving average is currently at $13,600, so for the purposes of withdrawal and withdrawal limits, I would consider the value of 750 BTC to be at $10.2, and I personally consider a 12% per year withdrawal rate to be acceptable, so long as the current BTC price is at least 12% higher than the current 208-week moving average price, which it currently is above $15,232 (1.12 x $13,600)... So I would feel ok. to withdraw $1.224 million per year or a $102k per month (which actually causes higher withdrawal numbers which could be a mistake if such 12% per year from the 208-week moving average is not sustainable).

I guess my point is that there are a lot of ways to consider the matter, and even to consider if any of us is even coming close to his/her withdraw limits or if we might be living within the boundary of such withdraw limits in the even that we have actually entered into such a period in which we are withdrawing portions of our BTC and attempting to make such withdraws sustainable within the timeline that we would like to project our BTC cashenings to be sustainable.

[shahzadafzal]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/ojrxvw/just_sent_25btc_8053_for_fee_of_000003240106/

[cygan]

#few

Haha, the whatsapp I just sent 🐜

Awesome

Love those daily LFC updates

which garmin watch is this?
would like to get me soon also a garmin and my favorite would be the garmin marq adventurer
https://discover.garmin.com/en-US/marq/collection/adventurer/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

This summer will be remembered for a long time.

Ok..... I will bite.

Why?

As a summer of despair before an autumn/winter of joy. A bit like 2013 probably.

Oh?

I cannot really assert that you have decent odds of being wrong - because such a scenario does not necessarily seem to be any kind of stretch - but still  "memorable"?  You have not really said anything that would cause this particular time to play out as particularly memorable, except to historians.  Does anyone give any shits about bitcoin price dynamics in 2013 anymore or remember hardly anything about it except for us more nerdy types who are hanging on every piece of quasi-obscured evidence?

#few

Had to shrink it down because those hairs are gross...

#justsaying

#nohomo 

Just don't forget these words by Hal and you all will be good.

"With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."

Hal was a smart guy, but he arrived at that number through faulty economic reasoning.

Well no economics was involved.. he just did the math and it's correct.

He literally said he thought the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world.  
Which is nonsense.  It is not because something is being expressed in a unit, that that unit needs to expand to whatever is being measured.  For example, let's say I measure the length of my furniture by comparing to the length of my thumb.  Why would there then need to be as many of my thumbs as there is furniture in the world?  If that sounds strange or weird, that is because it is weird and nonsensical.
Money is just an asset class on its own, which takes up a certain portion of total wealth in the world.

sauce : https://twitter.com/DrBitcoinMD?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1165004233663496197%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cryptopolitan.com%2Fhal-finney-bitcoin-price-prediction-10-m%2F

I like bullish BTC price predictions as much as the next guy, but if we just switch off our critical thinking whenever somebody says something nice about bitcoin, we are more of a religion or cult than anything else.  Which is not needed imo, as the realistic scenario for bitcoin holds plenty of upside and promise.

One thing is that it took you three posts before you explained what you meant about Hal supposedly being pie in the sky in his prediction, and in the end, you have not even provided any kind of meaningful criticism in terms of Hal being pie in the sky.  His back of the napkin remains pretty decent, and it is not about what people want, it is based on the fact that he gave a decent ballpark idea.. which is good and it remains a decent and applicable amount, especially in the relatively near future whether you account for inflation or not.. and sure with inflation the numbers may likely need to be changed, and surely we do not consider that all of the current world wealth is not an expanding pie.. especially around 12 years later? 

Sure there are ups and downs, even in the world's creation of value.. but probably some assumptions can be made about various ways in which value has increased.. and storage of value has increased.  Furthermore, the value I get from eating an ice cream cone is not really a storage of value, so I doubt that we are talking about things like that.  The value that I get from owning a home and a piece of land may well be the land, and if homes/land is no longer used so much as a storage of value then some of the more efficient storage of value will move into BTC.. but there still will be utility value in the home, but perhaps some of that storage of value aspect would end flowing into bitcoin.. even though it could take 20, 50 or more years to reestablish how people are incentivized regarding value and how they think of value and the fact that there is so much debt based in the various current status quo systems will likely take a long time to sort out and to sort through too.. so no one is going to know exactly how these matters will play out in 2009.. even if they are doing napkin calculations and approximations.. .. so surely I would agree with your reluctance to give god status to such proclamations, but at the same time, there still is a lot of decent starting parameters contained therein without getting all huffy and puffy about it.,. in terms of suggesting that there was little to no value in Hals attempt to provide some kind of ballpark frame to the wealth gravitating into BTC matter.

[xhomerx10]

Currently 31 degrees outside, 26 degrees inside, just great, even the cats are too hot to do anything.

 We have a word for that in my country

 

You have too much sparetime

 Never!   

[El duderino_]

#few

Had to shrink it down because those hairs are gross...

#justsaying

#nohomo 

Just a real man's arm, a real bitcoiner's arm with some stonecold diamond HODLer hands attachted to them.....

Just the ones a mortal guy wants to avoid at all time 

[shahzadafzal]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/ok47n6/nottheonion_a_29yo_bitcoin_billionaire_named/

[JayJuanGee]

I like bullish BTC price predictions as much as the next guy, but if we just switch off our critical thinking whenever somebody says something nice about bitcoin, we are more of a religion or cult than anything else.  Which is not needed imo, as the realistic scenario for bitcoin holds plenty of upside and promise.

You hit the nail right on the head I find that supporters of Bitcoin are too quick to believe something just because its saying something positive about Bitcoin. Most predictions that people say are not accurate and have no evidence to back up their prediction other than just a gut feeling. You deserve more merit for shining a light on that mental flaw that the Bitcoin community seems to have.

yeah right...

Nonsense.

There is all kinds of back and forth in the bitcoin community (to the extent that such a thing exists), and sure some ideas are better than others, and Hal had a lot of good ideas, including his back of the napkin 2009 idea of $10million per coin as a ballpark idea of where we might be going if things play out well.. sure, there are aspirations built into that, and anyone worth his weight in salt would appreciate that nothing is certain, and even our pal, Hal, was providing what he considered a better case scenario rather than a certainty.

Sure, there are dumbasses who ascribe probabilities as certainties and when they see a chart, they believe that it is based on certainties.. but when we engage in various dialogues and share ideas, hopefully more and more people learn how to assign probabilities to whatever projections that they make including that our pal, Hal was engaged in such a probabilities endeavor.. so fuck off with the nonsense that he was either describing certainties or that too many folks in the BTC community are assigning too much probability to that kind of projection, even though there seem to be decent chances that we could well end up there (at $10million per coin) either the next cycle or a few cycles down the road or perhaps 20 or 50 years from now.. 

Probability also means that we may well not make it there.. but a lot of us can appreciate the asymmetric bet of bitcoin  and be quite satisfied with even flat BTC performance even if we are thinking about possibilities that it could go much higher, we are also o.k. with flat (or some variation of flat), if that is how the BTC-landia cards end up playing out.... but an asymmetric bet is still an asymmetric bet, so many who merely invested small amounts of value into bitcoin ended up doing quite well based on the asymmetric way that bitcoin has played out and is likely to continue to play out... so you better fucking get some bitcoin (and you even don't need that much) and you may well have a decent hedge in the event that bitcoin ends up being a decently performing UPpity investment.. which it seems to be and there is really no strong evidence or logic in the contrary.. especially in recent times, the bullish case for bitcoin seems to be getting stronger and stronger with the passage of time, Lindy Effect and all that mumbo jumbo that some of you dumbass naysayers and party poops are failing/refusing to appreciate the value of such because you believe that bitcoin folks are too much covered with rosey-eyed glasses (which is near pure baloney to be making such nonsense assertions that is likely based on anecdotal evidence rather than really reflecting the reality of the matter).

Well he didn’t say it will happen but he stated it as “an amusing thought experiment”. On other hand if that happens and Bitcoin becomes the standard global currency in the world then measuring bitcoin against dollar will be as useless as it’s today… 1 BTC = 1 BTC

Anyway yes it might be insane but not when you take it as an amusing thought experiment.

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world.  Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

He does say that if Bitcoin were to become the dominant payment system of the world that the total value of the currency would equal the total value of ALL wealth in the world which is complete horse shit. To me he tries to cover up that quite inaccurate statement by prefacing that its just a thought experiment well even if that thought experiment did materialize and become a reality Bitcoin would not be the equivalent of all the wealth in the world.

So what?

Need to tweak his $10million a bit.. and likely bitcoin is going to be worth more than $10million per coin, not even accounting for dollar deflation..

So sure, maybe his figuring of wealth in the world was not very particularized, because it is going to be much more difficult to have completely nuanced valuations until going back and forth a bit in terms of what kinds of value might gravitate into BTC..

In other words, you seem to be attempting to ascribe Hal as if he were an idiot, and surely no one is really going to be saying that the value of a house is going to completely flow into bitcoin, even if it might have sounded like that is what he was saying.. same thing with a gold bar... there are going to be a lot of aspects of gold that flow into bitcoin, but there will likely still be value in gold, whether industrial, jewelry, and even some storage of value aspect, even if gold might end up going down to $10 per ounce or whatever relative to bitcoin's $100 million or whatever it ends up reaching at various points in its life cycle of gravitating value into it.

Protip: We should not be presuming napkin math to be disingenuine merely because we believe that it ended up being wrong, and it really has not been shown to have been wrong, even if it did not ascribe various nuances correctamente. 

But hey, you Hal the pal naysayers gonna hate.. even hate our hero and buddy Hal the pal.  He was a smart, insightful and very helpful to the BTC space mother-fucker (not literally).

So you better take back all your negative thoughts about hal our pal.... you fucks who are hating on a guy with a lot of good ideas.. and currently ded as we know to be mortals happen to be a legend.. since you have to die to become a legend, no?

[nanobtc]

Coinbase having "connection issues" right now.

[Dabs]

Oh gawd, Dabs.  You are both showing that you have no where close to 750BTC, and you seem to be creating some kind of artificial hypothetical that is not going to apply in terms of considering that someone who has 750 BTC would be the ONLY wealth that they have, so they have to engage in some kind of desperate reallocation, after a 50% BTC price drop...

Sure, there might be some legitimacy in your claim that the person had shaved off some BTC through an exchange after a 50% drop in price, but still seems quite presumptuous to be ascribing so many specifics.

I've never had more than 10k BTC, but having dealt with shitcoins in the past, the actual numbers themselves should "feel" the same whether you are transacting 1 BTC or 10 BTC or 100 BTC ... (since in shitcoin terms, I have experienced both receiving and sending 100k of them in their units.) I even had this shitcoin where I had close to 900 million of it (none of it bought, all mined, since it was a CPU mineable coin back then, so I wasted electricity on it maybe.)

I think without sounding presumptuous, the owner decided to move his coins after 9 years regardless of the drop in price, but maybe more so that it appreciated so many millions in the past 9 years, so that any actual value above say $10k is good enough for them. Or above $20k, as that was the previous top in 2017 to 2018-ish. $30k is still $10k higher than $20k.

Opsec. I lost all my bitcoins when my boat sank ...

or even below 1 BTC per address for some addresses, even though they might be more difficult to manage.. and even having equally sized addresses might not be any kind of strict requirement in keeping track... in terms of how many addresses to divide into and how much to keep in each.. some with larger quantities of BTC and some with smaller quantities of BTC.

1 BTC or even below 1 BTC might actually make sense. You can always use a computer program or software ... now we call that a wallet ... to keep track of all of it anyway. I think as long as the value of the BTC and it's potential transaction fee to transfer or move that coin from that address is below, say, for example 1%, then it's ok. Any smaller value might not make as much sense because you would be "wasting" your coins on transaction fees.

Moving 100 BTC with a 0.000002 BTC transaction fee is a very good number. Moving 1 BTC while paying 0.0001 BTC in fees, is also not bad, if you were to do that once a year, or even once a month.

If someone has 750 BTC currently (more than $22 million currently), I am not sure why there might be any need to strive to be frugal with $3 million of it.. again presuming that $22 million might be the total wealth.. which also comes off as a wee bit of a stretch as I already mentioned.

Some people have come onto wealth only to splurge and spend it all. We've all read the stories of lottery winners and even celebrities that made $300 million, only to go bankrupt because they spent it all in a short time without saving any for the future.

If someone did not have $3m before, it would be wise to make it last if that's what they cashed out.

I mean, completely changing your lifestyle might not be the best idea; upgrading it a little bit or getting rid of all your debts if you have any is much better.

Someone who had 750 BTC 9 years ago, while it is possible he has other wallets or addresses, it's also quite likely that's all he has as then even if he were a miner, or bought DCA before, it was normal to consolidate all those coins into one address because it was easy to do it.

Not many people had the foresight 9 years ago to mine a block of 50 BTC, then split them up into 50 different addresses, and do that often. It would have been such a hassle for something worth "cents".

Very few people carry more than a certain amount of cash in their physical wallets these days, or even 9 years ago. I don't know too many people who even had $750 in cash in their wallets. Most have debit cards, or credit cards, checks, apps on their phone, and maybe $100 in cash, in the wallet. Some don't have cash, just cards.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

My current amusing thought experiment puts liquidity at around 15 million total coins, with the amusing assumption that we will not see 21 million soon, but have mined 99% in a couple of decades, and a few of those millions lost, while the rest are in some form of cold storage.

We've seen coins aged 9 years move recently. However, I would bet that any coins much older than that, that have not moved, are never going to move, and for all intents and purposes may be considered lost.

In a few decades, we are looking at $50m to $100m per coin. USD.

Just an amusing thought experiment of my own.

I'd like to preface this with a little clarity that this does not represent all the wealth in the world, but rather all the value of currencies or money in the world in the future, essentially the equivalent of M1 to M3 or something like that, the liquid stuff. Maybe the value of entire companies and stocks and real estate too. Whatever it is that will be worth a thousand trillion dollars.

My naive dumb math puts $50m x 15m BTC = 750,000,000,000,000 or about 750 trillion.

This also means the stuff we can't really value like the oceans, the moon, the north and south poles, is not really counted, and who really cares about those except the scientists.

I say, it's a fun thought experiment. Maybe not fun for some of you guys because that would also imply something else is wrong with the world if this comes true.

Well to be honest your fun thought experiment is still quantifiable, within reach and comprehend-able at least … see what our “scientists” speculating, things worth $10,000 quadrillion      

NASA’s Hubble Telescope has obtained images of an asteroid so rich in metals that its worth puts our global economy to shame. Think $10,000 quadrillion ($10,000,000,000,000,000,000), compared to the world’s economy, which was worth about $142 trillion in 2019.

Isn’t this more absurd than what Hal stated?

Mandatory Edit:
Don’t forget to divide this asteroid into 21 million pieces.

Your acceptance of the framing is a bit ridiculous, shahzadafzal.

The economy is not going to expand merely if an asteroid were to land with all those precious metals within grasp..

So we still have the limitations of various values on earth that would need to be accounted for.

Of course, the value of various rare PMs would likely devaluate based on lessening of scarcity, but it would be quite difficult to presume that the entrance of more PMs would expand the pie by very much, if at all.

By the way, I am going to say that I have a problematic BTC address (or maybe a set of addresses) that concern me in terms of how it (they) was established and consolidated.. so still thinking about how to deal with some of my mistakes that were made.. and even hoping that there could be some ways to resolve some of my mistakes that were made.. but thinking and thinking.. without wanting to describe the particulars with too many details beyond just implying size and consolidation concerns.

You probably don't need help and will eventually figure this out, such as either ignoring the dust, or consolidating it all in one or a few transactions, loading up as many addresses or inputs as you can. But just in case, you can ask around here maybe someone knows what to do, or can do, or if its too much work or its possible.

Sure, at this point, I do not consider my "problem" to be urgent, and I am having some difficulties imagining scenarios in which my "problem" would turn into an urgency.  

Without getting into particulars, my problema is just as factor that I have to keep in mind in terms of certain balances that I would prefer to achieve if I were to approach matters prudently and attempt to engage in "best practices" or to even attempt to refine some of my "best" or "better practices", but there are also certain scenarios in which I may well throw the balances of what is better or best out the window, and just say to my lil selfie: "fuck it".. do what I want and suck up some of the costs of doing what I want rather than resolving the matter through "best" or "better" practices.. in other words, not letting the perfect be the enemy of the good.

Sure, I know that I can present matters in the forum, and sometimes I do and sometimes I consider matters that I might be befuddled to resolve to present, if I conclude that it might be a good topic or helpful to my lil selfie.

#few

Haha, the whatsapp I just sent 🐜

Awesome

Love those daily LFC updates

Without breaking Opsec too muchie, is LFC your secret sauce - my friend said.. blah blah blah?

nohomo.. with all the little hairs on the arms?  talking in bed about bitcoin..

Sauce 1:  "did I ever tell you that I love bitcoin?"
Sauce 2:  "I love bitcoin, too"
Sauce 1: "have a good HODL sleep"
Sauce 2:   "uie -too-ie hunny bunny, HODL strongie, with those little arm-hairs."
Sauce 1:  "You too - no no homo"
Sauce 2:  MMMMuuuuuaaaaacccchhhh 


 

[JayJuanGee]

By the way, I am going to say that I have a problematic BTC address (or maybe a set of addresses) that concern me in terms of how it (they) was established and consolidated.. so still thinking about how to deal with some of my mistakes that were made.. and even hoping that there could be some ways to resolve some of my mistakes that were made.. but thinking and thinking.. without wanting to describe the particulars with too many details beyond just implying size and consolidation concerns.

You probably don't need help and will eventually figure this out, such as either ignoring the dust, or consolidating it all in one or a few transactions, loading up as many addresses or inputs as you can. But just in case, you can ask around here maybe someone knows what to do, or can do, or if its too much work or its possible.

If he isn't already using electrum he could export all the keys from his old wallets, then import them into electrum. After that he could freeze any problematic dust addresses, so they can't be spent from.

Either that, or wait until the fees are extremely low, then send dust spread across loads of addresses to a single consolidation address.

Fees are fairly low at the moment.

Today the bitcoinfees website says zero fee transactions can still confirm if you are prepared to wait 95 blocks.

It says a one sat per byte fee can confirm inbetween 3 to 64 blocks.

https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/

*edit*

Apparently it's very difficult to broadcast a zero fee transaction. There seems to be a way to trick electrum into letting you broadcast a zero fee segwit transaction, but I'm not sure if it works for normal transactions.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Electrum/comments/kt41dq/finally_changed_electrum_code_to_have_truly_zero/

You can actually achieve this by using paytomany where you simply leave zero SAT for fees. I've done it in the past.

 ...it is very rare (5%) to find a node that will allow you to broadcast a zero fee TXN

If electrum won't let you generate a zero fee transaction you could try using an offline copy of coinb.in

https://coinb.in/#newTransaction

You can download it from the link at the bottom of this page.

https://coinb.in/#about

This is its bitcointalk thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=390046

*edit2*

If he has an address with hundreds of dust inputs the thread below might offer a solution.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Electrum/comments/7qa45a/is_it_possible_to_specify_the_inputs_for_a_given/

Any transaction with over a hundred inputs seems to create problems. Using electrum to create transactions with 50 inputs seems to solve this.

I hate to even say my problem.. but it is different than the one you are describing or suggesting in terms of dealing with dust or even a bunch of transactions that are combined.. but maybe I could just say if there were some combining of addresses on one occasion, and then moving that whole lump together at one point, then there are already two steps there, so it seems that it may be too late to do anything except maybe acknowledge them all as one owner.  I am not really sure if I am currently wanting to attempt to resolve this, if there is even a resolution.

[HI-TEC99]

By the way, I am going to say that I have a problematic BTC address (or maybe a set of addresses) that concern me in terms of how it (they) was established and consolidated.. so still thinking about how to deal with some of my mistakes that were made.. and even hoping that there could be some ways to resolve some of my mistakes that were made.. but thinking and thinking.. without wanting to describe the particulars with too many details beyond just implying size and consolidation concerns.

You probably don't need help and will eventually figure this out, such as either ignoring the dust, or consolidating it all in one or a few transactions, loading up as many addresses or inputs as you can. But just in case, you can ask around here maybe someone knows what to do, or can do, or if its too much work or its possible.

If he isn't already using electrum he could export all the keys from his old wallets, then import them into electrum. After that he could freeze any problematic dust addresses, so they can't be spent from.

Either that, or wait until the fees are extremely low, then send dust spread across loads of addresses to a single consolidation address.

Fees are fairly low at the moment.

Today the bitcoinfees website says zero fee transactions can still confirm if you are prepared to wait 95 blocks.

It says a one sat per byte fee can confirm inbetween 3 to 64 blocks.

https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/

*edit*

Apparently it's very difficult to broadcast a zero fee transaction. There seems to be a way to trick electrum into letting you broadcast a zero fee segwit transaction, but I'm not sure if it works for normal transactions.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Electrum/comments/kt41dq/finally_changed_electrum_code_to_have_truly_zero/

You can actually achieve this by using paytomany where you simply leave zero SAT for fees. I've done it in the past.

 ...it is very rare (5%) to find a node that will allow you to broadcast a zero fee TXN

If electrum won't let you generate a zero fee transaction you could try using an offline copy of coinb.in

https://coinb.in/#newTransaction

You can download it from the link at the bottom of this page.

https://coinb.in/#about

This is its bitcointalk thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=390046

*edit2*

If he has an address with hundreds of dust inputs the thread below might offer a solution.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Electrum/comments/7qa45a/is_it_possible_to_specify_the_inputs_for_a_given/

Any transaction with over a hundred inputs seems to create problems. Using electrum to create transactions with 50 inputs seems to solve this.

I hate to even say my problem.. but it is different than the one you are describing or suggesting in terms of dealing with dust or even a bunch of transactions that are combined.. but maybe I could just say if there were some combining of addresses on one occasion, and then moving that whole lump together at one point, then there are already two steps there, so it seems that it may be too late to do anything except maybe acknowledge them all as one owner.  I am not really sure if I am currently wanting to attempt to resolve this, if there is even a resolution.

This website can guess the linked addresses in a wallet. You enter one address into it, then it guesses the rest. It's run by someone from chainalysis.com, which exchanges and governments use to check where bitcoins come from.

https://www.walletexplorer.com/

This website also guesses linked addresses in wallets, but I don't think big business uses its services.

https://btc.cryptoid.info/btc/

You could import the keys to any addresses they missed into electrum, then move those coins to another wallet. That way you could salvage any anonymous addresses you have left.

[irfan_pak10]

Heard about this at Twitter

BREAKING: Microsoft announces it’s accepting $BTC and operating #Bitcoin nodes directly.

[BillyCoiner]

I see the price met mid $31,000’s. Bit of a dead cat bounce to now meet $32,742. It’s only a matter of time now until new lows are met. Sell everything now before it goes to $20,000. You won’t always have a friendly guy advising you to save your net worth. It’s not too late so get out when you can before the long, cold bear market.

[HI-TEC99]

This user is currently ignored.

C'mon Billy, this is no time to get bearish on us.

We can't stop now. This is bat country.

He's probably a day trader, or a shitcoin shill.

[JayJuanGee]

#few

Had to shrink it down because those hairs are gross...

#justsaying

#nohomo 

Just a real man's arm, a real bitcoiner's arm with some stonecold diamond HODLer hands attachted to them.....

Just the ones a mortal guy wants to avoid at all time 

Yeah.. exactly!!!!!!

Not going to catch me trying to eat crackers next to those potentially lethal weapons...

 

Oh gawd, Dabs.  You are both showing that you have no where close to 750BTC, and you seem to be creating some kind of artificial hypothetical that is not going to apply in terms of considering that someone who has 750 BTC would be the ONLY wealth that they have, so they have to engage in some kind of desperate reallocation, after a 50% BTC price drop...

Sure, there might be some legitimacy in your claim that the person had shaved off some BTC through an exchange after a 50% drop in price, but still seems quite presumptuous to be ascribing so many specifics.

I've never had more than 10k BTC, but having dealt with shitcoins in the past, the actual numbers themselves should "feel" the same whether you are transacting 1 BTC or 10 BTC or 100 BTC ... (since in shitcoin terms, I have experienced both receiving and sending 100k of them in their units.) I even had this shitcoin where I had close to 900 million of it (none of it bought, all mined, since it was a CPU mineable coin back then, so I wasted electricity on it maybe.)

Of course, I am not really trying to get into your Opsec issues, but I was likely attempting to get to the point of considering some of the practical matters of what might be considerations with a more than $22 million portfolio.. so I am not really sure how pertinent the number of units would be, and especially if we are devolving into shitcoin talk...

I am not going to argue in terms of whether there would be differing ways of considering these kinds of matters in terms if you are dealing with your own coins or if you were a fiduciary over someone else's coins or if you were merely in a kind of advisory role.. surely there are a variety of considerations, including that if some ideas are presented to a client, there might be some back and forth before figuring out how to handle the matter depending on how much a client might want to engage with the matter.

We might be going a bit far with some of this speculation too, because each of us have acknowledged that there would be differing considerations in the event that the 750 BTC were the total wealth versus taking into account some other wealth that might also be present for such person with 750 BTC that had previously been sitting for 9 years.

I think without sounding presumptuous, the owner decided to move his coins after 9 years regardless of the drop in price, but maybe more so that it appreciated so many millions in the past 9 years, so that any actual value above say $10k is good enough for them. Or above $20k, as that was the previous top in 2017 to 2018-ish. $30k is still $10k higher than $20k.

That seems a bit presumptuous.. to steal your word from you, but sure, there is a scenario in which what you state makes sense... including selling 100 BTC and changing the wallet (address) configuration of the remainder.

Opsec. I lost all my bitcoins when my boat sank ...

Shit happens.

or even below 1 BTC per address for some addresses, even though they might be more difficult to manage.. and even having equally sized addresses might not be any kind of strict requirement in keeping track... in terms of how many addresses to divide into and how much to keep in each.. some with larger quantities of BTC and some with smaller quantities of BTC.

1 BTC or even below 1 BTC might actually make sense. You can always use a computer program or software ... now we call that a wallet ... to keep track of all of it anyway. I think as long as the value of the BTC and it's potential transaction fee to transfer or move that coin from that address is below, say, for example 1%, then it's ok. Any smaller value might not make as much sense because you would be "wasting" your coins on transaction fees.

Well there could be some folks who are considering moving spending wallets to the lightning network, so there could be some variations in the size of the source of such from time to time replenishing of lightning channels or lightning wallet balances.  And, sure now versus the future, and I could imagine scenarios that there might not be too many thoughts given to fees - even though at this particular time, there could be some motivations to reconfigure balances based on what seems to be quite low onchain fees, relatively speaking.

Moving 100 BTC with a 0.000002 BTC transaction fee is a very good number. Moving 1 BTC while paying 0.0001 BTC in fees, is also not bad, if you were to do that once a year, or even once a month.

Sure.

If someone has 750 BTC currently (more than $22 million currently), I am not sure why there might be any need to strive to be frugal with $3 million of it.. again presuming that $22 million might be the total wealth.. which also comes off as a wee bit of a stretch as I already mentioned.

Some people have come onto wealth only to splurge and spend it all. We've all read the stories of lottery winners and even celebrities that made $300 million, only to go bankrupt because they spent it all in a short time without saving any for the future.

If someone did not have $3m before, it would be wise to make it last if that's what they cashed out.

We are referring to someone who has $22 million, and has sat on it for 9 years.. so hard to characterize such person as potentially suddenly coming into wealth, without knowing more details.

I mean, completely changing your lifestyle might not be the best idea; upgrading it a little bit or getting rid of all your debts if you have any is much better.

I cannot disagree with you in terms of whether someone might be inclined to make sudden changes in spending habits or lifestyle or not.  There likely are a considerable number of bitcoiners who are contemplating some of the ways that they might increase their standard of living.. and maybe having some dilemmas with such considerations.. including but for sure not limited to yours truly.

Someone who had 750 BTC 9 years ago, while it is possible he has other wallets or addresses, it's also quite likely that's all he has as then even if he were a miner, or bought DCA before, it was normal to consolidate all those coins into one address because it was easy to do it.

Sure, it is possible, but I am having trouble with the degree of that speculation... you seem to be putting out an outlier scenario rather than a more likely scenario.

Not many people had the foresight 9 years ago to mine a block of 50 BTC, then split them up into 50 different addresses, and do that often. It would have been such a hassle for something worth "cents".

Very few people carry more than a certain amount of cash in their physical wallets these days, or even 9 years ago. I don't know too many people who even had $750 in cash in their wallets. Most have debit cards, or credit cards, checks, apps on their phone, and maybe $100 in cash, in the wallet. Some don't have cash, just cards.

Ok.,, but not too many people are waking up out of a 9 year coma.... .. so the scenarios for just leaving the BTC sit do not seem to be too likely for anyone who does not have a decent amount of other resources.. and not even suggesting that there would be very much value to bat around our differing perspectives in probabilities in this direction.  In other words, I am not really inclined to play around with how likely one scenario is or another scenario, but surely we can describe a scenario and then describe how to treat such a scenario.... and the more relevant fact of this matter (even assuming that 750 BTC was all that he had in the world) would be that the guy had $22 million in value and severed off $3 million in value, and still seems to be a bit much to say that he is going to treat the $3 million in one way and then let the other $19million grow or divide it up or whatever.. just a bunch of grasping at speculation, even if there are a variety of ways to attempt to consider the whole matter including how much to spend and even to create a plan into the future of 65 years or even some other kind of way of planning. gosh sounds like the plans of a corporation if we are considering 65 years into the future... or some kind of lucky young peep who happens to be able to employ a lot of deferred gratification..