... So yeah, if the guy wants to spend more than $50k per year for the next 4 years, and he only has 15 BTC to work with, then he might be more desperate in terms of trying to get his BTC to go further, and maybe the easier solution is figuring out how to live within his means rather than employing too much risk, but guys are going to come to differing decisions about wanting to employ more risk and which other areas they might explore outside of BTC and the dollar.
The guy with 143BTC might also choose to shave off 30 BTC for the next 4 years to be able to have a $100k per year budget, and sure that guy also has less cushion to work with and might be trying to push his limits too much and could cause himself to employ shitty methods because his cushion is not as good.
I am not quite sure where you are wanting to go with your getting into the further topics that might even be something that is all over the place in terms of individuality but also seems to be getting into irrelevant areas that get us off of BTC as a topic and into these various other products (shitcoins/stablecoins)... AmInotrite? Does our Fuck you guy have 15 BTC to spend over the next 4 years with a budget of $50k per year or does he have 30BTC to spend and a budget of $100k per year, or is there some other variant of a guy's situation that you would want to explore in order to get into those seemingly off-topic areas? And how big is his stash? is it entry level 143 BTC or does he have more of a cushion such as the 230 BTC guy? Where do you want to go? and why the fuck do we need to talk about shitcoins/stable coins in order to talk about how our BTC guy might manage his funds? unless we are trying to talk about a guy who has not quite figured out how to get into fuck you status so he is barely living on the edge of wannabe fuck you status but has not quite made it yet so therefore he believes that he needs to bring shitcoins/stable coins into his calculation for a supposed (imaginary) better way of earning money off his bitcoins blah blah blah.. when if he has really reached fuck you status he does not need to worry about that baloney of earning yield blah blah blah.. because bitcoin is already designed to pump forever, amiNOTrite?
I never brought up yield. I only brought up "cash" as an asset allocation for safety. If he does not need shitcoins like the US dollar, or cash reserves, or if he has more than enough FU status with BTC, then yeah, just HODL BTC and spend that as required.
Last time I checked, this thread pertains to the BTC / USD pair.. so that seems to be the most relevant way of considering topics in this thread...
Of course, I have no real intention to suggest the dollar is something that any of us wants to be in, but it is relevant to this thread... way more relevant than something that is supposed to represent it.. but sure, I understand that sometimes there can be short term utility to transfer or even hold in one location versus another by getting into various forms of synthetic dollars or stable coins or whatever, but still I am having trouble understanding why we need to get into any details about that or if you are wanting to make some kind of other relevant point about using those as compared to whether you are in dollars ... By the way, if banks are holding my dollars I am not really sure about that, just as I am not sure about an exchange that might claim to be holding my dollars.. I used to have some exchanges on binance, and they did not even have a dollar option, so I had to trade in USDT in order to have some kind of semblance of dollar trading, but when they forced me to go to Binance USA, they had a dollar option and a tether option, so I have been slowly transitioning my USDT to USD.. and do I really know the difference? Only that they claim that the USD is dollars and the USDT is something that the USDT peeps claim to be trying to keep the value pegged to the USD.
But for some people, having cash on hand would be a good idea. I treat stablecoins as cash. Perhaps keep them in a hot wallet on a secured machine maybe, if not in cold storage that is easily accessible.
Still? relevance to get into those details?
You don't normally get a yield just by holding shitcoins. As in, you hold it, and no one else.
Fair enough.. we do not need to get into yield...
And even if you did have a shitcoin like the US dollar, and kept it in a high interest savings account, you normally only get around 1% or less, so I don't really consider that as proper "yield", but the bank does hold your US dollar. You might need the fiat in the account in order to pay your bills or other expenses, that's what we use it for.
Also, I don't know why we really need to get into discussions of the USD as a shitcoin in this thread... because it is just likely leads us to talking about shitcoins or a back door way to say which shitcoins might be better than the dollar. Of course, many of us realize that bitcoin is better than the dollar in the long term, but sure the dollar is part of the trading pair that we are talking about in this thread.. I doubt that the dollar as a shitcoin angle of a conversation is really helping much of anything except maybe pushing us towards sloppy thinking in terms of the topic of this thread.. which is not about stable coins but instead about USD/BTC...
In this context, I refer to stablecoins as the equivalent of the US dollar.
Why not just refer to the dollar then, if that's what you mean. You want to talk about some subtlety beyond the dollar that's why you continue to go down that path.
If you are not okay with that, then I refer to the US dollar as another shitcoin, which you can (or must) hold interim while the rest of your BTC stash appreciates.
We talk about the dollar a lot in this thread. Some people think that you should be 100% in bitcoin, and that just seems like pure bullshit to me, so for sure, you know that we talk about expenses being in the dollar etc etc.. and sure some participants here do not even use the dollar but they largely agree to just use the dollar as a kind of reference to fiat in terms of maybe that they might hold some of their expense money in their local currencies.. whether they are getting a regular cashflow in their local currency and/or even how much they feel that they might have to hold in reserve for expenses based on cashflow and other considerations.
As I already mentioned that based on my current situation and current complexities in my finances, currently I prefer to project about 2 years in advance for my cashflow, but still my projecting 2 years in advance does not mean that I have 2 years of dollars in my bank account, and some of the projection of cashflow might involve my converting cash around or anticipating how much will come in.. and even some conservative representations of more short term cashflow and maybe some more liberal interpretations for cashflow that is further out than 6 months. So yeah, I would really consider it foolish to not account for cashflow, and by the way, many of us longer term investors have assets that we hold in a variety of ways beyond just cash, and maybe we might draw on those other assets regularly for cashflow but that does not necessarily mean that we are getting into those kinds of topics merely when we might have been talking about how to valuate our BTC or something like that (which was our previous topic) before you seemed to want to deviate into topics about how to valuate your dollar, but you did not want to talk about the dollar, instead you wanted to presume the dollar to be shit and to talk about shitcoins (stablecoins) instead. amiNOTrite?
I only bring in stablecoins because some people do not like to hold the actual US dollar, or the fiat in a bank account, or maybe they don't have a bank account (in which case, yes, they can probably hold cash, as in wads of paper bills.) Some might just prefer them to be in digital form.
Fair enough.. that does seem to be getting into a different topic than what we were talking about, though. We were talking about how to valuate your bitcoin and not about how to valuate your dollar.. and sure, I suppose there could be some relevance to figuring ways to value your dollar.. but still changing the topic, and your first mentions just seemed to me like desires to get into nonsense talk rather than bitcoin talk..
When someone reaches just about FU level status, they want to pull it at that time, then it's always a good idea to have some cash reserves allotted for spending without worrying about volatility.
I don't know Dabs. There are all kinds of variants in terms of getting close to FU status and how to attempt to deal with the various scenarios that could end up playing out.. even if we take the guy/gal who just made it to fuck you status with the 143BTC, s/he would have been teetering on fuck you status in recent times.. but able to see the fuck you status being reached in the future.. that is if s/he is using the 208-week moving average rather than spot price. So maybe I would come close to agreeing with you if we are using the 208-week moving average because we will see the BTC price coming up closer and closer to meeting FU status, but if we are using spot price, we may well be all over the place in terms of our potentially pulling the fuck you status lever too early and potentially other strange behaviors.
The guy/gal would have seen the 208-week moving average move up accordingly .
March 2020 - $5k - BTC portfolio value = $715k
March 2021 - $10k - BTC portfolio value = $1.43 million
September 2021 - $14k - BTC portfolio value = $2 million
So, if our hypothetical guy/gal approaches fuck you status, s/he might already have some ideas regarding where the value of his BTC is going and approximately when s/he is going to get to FU status because s/he is using a very conservative valuation (the 208-week moving average) for the BTC. I think that guys/gal using spot price are going to be somewhat lost puppies and really have a lot of all over the place thinking on the of where they are at and how solid they are in their thinking about where they are at and how much they might be able to spend or budget based on where they are at - including but not limited to pulling the fuck you lever too early and bringing unnecessary stress upon themselves if that does not end up causing irreversible damage. which sometimes those miscalculations can end up causing irreversible damages.
That's what the shitcoins are for.
Fuck shitcoins and your seemingly lame conclusions that shitcoins play any significant and/or meaningful role in what we had been talking about which is assessing whether you have yet reached fuck you status.
I never said to "invest" them in some shit-platform like those "yield earning" ones, they're no better than just being in your fiat bank account. Perhaps that is where the hostility is coming from.
I don't know... We might be talking a bit passed each other, perhaps?
Again, if you really really hate the US dollar or fiat, I can completely understand your dislike for stablecoins.
Dollar and fiat is a subject matter of this thread.. stablecoins and shitcoins are not... so I don't know why you are suggesting that I hate the dollar as a topic to discuss herein.. at least in terms of its relationship to bitcoin...seems to be our thread focus area.
As I still pay almost all my expenses in fiat, I have to deal with it. The guy with 230 BTC or 500 or 1000 may not care although I think it's a waste of BTC if one has to spend 30 this year instead of 15 or 10 because they did not plan for the volatility or set aside some as "cash" or equivalents.
You may have missed the reason that I brought up the 30 BTC in the first place. I was initially suggesting a guy with 230 BTC to spend 30 BTC over the next 4 years with a $100k per year target budget... I was trying to describe both a situation in which the guy is beyond his fuck you status and he may well end up giving himself a lot of latitude in terms of considering how to spend his value over the next 4 years, and so sure, even though he may have a tentative authorization that he could spend up to 30 BTC in the next 4 years, he does not need to go any kind of blind spending spree because he is also using $100k per year as a withdrawal rate guideline that he already gave to himself.,. so if he decides to put a whole $100k into cash right now, just to have his next year covered, then he would cashout a whole two BTC.. and that would give him $100k for the next year... He still has 28BTC left to last him the next 3 years, and if the BTC prices never goes below $50k ever again, he will end up spending less than 8 BTC for all four years, which adds up to $400k spent and 22 BTC that he can roll back into his future plans. The guy is also not locked into whatever tentative plan that he had made up.. but he already realized that if BTC goes to shit and ends up going back down to its $14k 208-week moving average price, he can still spend up to 30 BTC.. .. anyhow, it does seem like we may well be speaking past each other in terms of what seems to be going on in the hypothetical and how to deal with it.. and what kinds of ramifications and limitations exist.. and how I am suggesting that it is quite likely this guy has pretty damned high odds of being totally protected in terms of preserving his fuck you status.. he also has 200 btc in cold storage reserves that he has no intention at all to touch in terms of spending or fucking around with them.. but he does have 30 BTC that he can do whatever the fuck he wants to and hopefully his having already thought through his parameters and his budget has given him guidelines about what he's got to play with in his play money.. his petty cash, his messing around with stash that he hopefully is smart enough NOT to screw up too badly unless BTC really tanks (which would be going down to $14k and staying there for 4 years) which is somewhat out of his control, no? but also seems quite a long shot of unlikely, also, no?
It's not truly a waste as it all goes back into the rest of the BTC blackhole. I just think it's a better idea to hedge the volatility for a certain time period, like 6 months, or 1 year, or even 4 years.
The whole valuation of BTC using the 208-week moving average already allows for the taking into account volatility.. so if you have 30 BTC and you want to play them in a way that you take out 4 years of cash from that, then that would cost you 8 BTC... then you would already have the cash and 22 BTC left... but if you want to leave some of that value in BTC, then you could do that, too... and just cash out 2 years at todays prices (giving you $200k in cash and 26 BTC, and you can decide later if you are going to convert more to cash at a later date..)... and if in two years, BTC prices is down at $14k, then it would cost you 14.3 BTC to cash out $200k (two years worth of cash), but surely it might not be advisable to be cashing out that much BTC at the 208-week moving average price, but that is totally within your discretion regarding how you are going to play the matter,
...and sure, you may end up making mistakes along the way, too... shit happens. Many of us have made a lot of mistakes along the way, but if you have decently strong formulas and guidelines, then you should already be lessening the chances that you are going to be making those kinds of rookie mistakes.. and that would have been part of the reason that you had already been able to hang onto your 230 BTC and able to authorize 30 BTC over the next 4 years, if you thought that to be a potentially prudent way of framing the matter... which that is how I framed the hypothetical with those balances to make some points that seem to be going past you, Dabs... perhaps? perhaps?
We also always talk about BTC prices in terms of fiat, and if it goes up, you don't need to spend as much of your BTC. But if it goes down, ... I think that's the purpose of the hedge.
Sure.. no problem with that.
I mean, even in traditional finance, most people don't have 100% equities or stocks. Some have maybe 30% to 50% allocated to bonds, and even 1% "cash". That's where I am going with this. You do make more with 100% equities but I'll probably stick to maybe 99% equities and 1% cash, and that cash is not just sitting in the brokerage account but ready to use, just in case.
Fair enough that you may have some of your money working for you in the long term, and other money that you want to keep more liquid.
So if we are talking about 4-years of liquidity or maybe a shorter period of time, and one of the things that is likely insightful about framing 4-years of liquidity is that bitcoin has so far tended to have four year cycles, so we might attempt to incorporate some of our thoughts about bitcoin's cycle into how we might want to deal with our liquid portions of what we might be anticipating to spend over the next four years.
You could think of it as emergency funds, perhaps that's the idea and I just said too many other words to describe the goal.
Sure.. refer to it as emergency fund.. petty cash.. working capital, non-working capital, liquid funds, whatever you like.
Tell me one other person other than say Elwar, who lives completely off his BTC stash. (and I think he even mentioned he cashed out the equivalent of 4 years into fiat.) ... We will get there one day, where there is no need to convert BTC to USD to pay for expenses directly.
I don't know how that is relevant. Some people might be very public about what they are doing, and not necessarily a good thing to get into those kinds of details unless you are trying to make a certain kind of point.
Are you suggesting that Elwar might be the only one here who had reached fuck you status? That's a strange assertion, to the extent that it is either relevant or that it is making any kind of meaningful or significant point in regards to investment (BTC and otherwise) portfolio (or fuck you status) management.
Another lame aspect of what you seem to be suggesting is that there might not be any value in terms of having cashflow and assets that you are spending that's coming from non-BTC sources before even spending your bitcoins within the parameters of Gresham's law... .
Maybe you consider drawing $8,333 monthly cashflow (which would add up to $100k per year) from your BTC to be within reasonable amount that could be withdrawn without anyone meaningful impact upon your BTC portfolio because that is even less than your actual BTC value.. but you already have $5k per month coming in from various other sources (that are not BTC and perhaps even passive.. you are not really working for those funds beyond managing where they go or how they are spent etc etc), so you have not even been able to spend enough of your cashflow that is already coming in on a regular basis in order to get to a point to withdraw from your BTC.. so in that kind of a scenario, all that potential BTC cashflow (of $8,333 per month/ $100k per year) is just getting folded back into BTC because it is not being used or spent... so would that be a problem. Maybe a helicopter and a helicopter pad needs to be built in order to spend more, no?
If such a guy wanted to spend his full BTC allocation, then he would have to somehow figure out a way to increase monthly spending from $5k per month to $13,333.. and sure, maybe s/he should be trying to increase his/her monthly spending, but just because s/he is not spending from his bitcoins on a regular basis, does that necessarily put him/her in a lesser position than Elwar, who you suggest is totally living off of his BTC?
Again, I am having troubles understanding where you might be going or wanting to go with this kind of an honorable mention of "our" homie.
Poll
