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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25498643 times)
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Toxic2040
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August 12, 2021, 04:25:05 PM

ELI5
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Reply with quote  #2

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dragonvslinux
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August 12, 2021, 04:27:53 PM

Any questions?  Did I miss some obvious problematic areas?  Sure maybe presuming 20% per year appreciation in the 208-week moving average is relatively safe, but perhaps in later years (after 2033 or so), maybe it would be more safer to reduce the 20% per year appreciation projection.. perhaps?  perhaps?

Nope, looks good to me. Haven't checked the math (better things to do with my time), but looks about right to me  Smiley
Sticking with a long-term MA as support is a smart move. Everything else in between in simply noise.
Still think $1m can be hit sooner than 2041, but conservative analysis I like  Cool
Dabs
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August 12, 2021, 04:47:40 PM

Still think $1m can be hit sooner than 2041, but conservative analysis I like  Cool

I think it might do 10x by 2041, or $10m. No maths, just gut feel. (and laser eyes)
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August 12, 2021, 04:51:01 PM
Last edit: August 12, 2021, 05:19:08 PM by El duderino_
Merited by fillippone (2), JayJuanGee (1)


https://twitter.com/sophiamzaller/status/1425841088791781381?s=21
El duderino_
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August 12, 2021, 04:52:39 PM

Any questions?  Did I miss some obvious problematic areas?  Sure maybe presuming 20% per year appreciation in the 208-week moving average is relatively safe, but perhaps in later years (after 2033 or so), maybe it would be more safer to reduce the 20% per year appreciation projection.. perhaps?  perhaps?

Nope, looks good to me. Haven't checked the math (better things to do with my time), but looks about right to me  Smiley
Sticking with a long-term MA as support is a smart move. Everything else in between in simply noise.
Still think $1m can be hit sooner than 2041, but conservative analysis I like  Cool

Ooooow already between now and 20y thats fast….  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
ImThour
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August 12, 2021, 05:00:24 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)

Amount of Bitcoins you need to become a millionaire:

2010: 2000000 BTC
2015: 4000 BTC
2020: 85.61 BTC
Today: 22.72 BTC
2025: 5 BTC

Fill those 5 BTC bag and wait just more 4 years.
Do not believe on me, believe on the stats.

Have a good day ahead.  Wink
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August 12, 2021, 05:01:28 PM


Explanation
dragonvslinux
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August 12, 2021, 05:01:59 PM

Any questions?  Did I miss some obvious problematic areas?  Sure maybe presuming 20% per year appreciation in the 208-week moving average is relatively safe, but perhaps in later years (after 2033 or so), maybe it would be more safer to reduce the 20% per year appreciation projection.. perhaps?  perhaps?

Nope, looks good to me. Haven't checked the math (better things to do with my time), but looks about right to me  Smiley
Sticking with a long-term MA as support is a smart move. Everything else in between in simply noise.
Still think $1m can be hit sooner than 2041, but conservative analysis I like  Cool

Ooooow already between now and 20y thats fast….  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Compared to "the prophecy", it doesn't look like it'll take 20 years at least  Wink



Conservative statistics are more reliable than prophecies however  Wink
JayJuanGee
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August 12, 2021, 05:13:48 PM
Last edit: August 12, 2021, 05:39:01 PM by JayJuanGee
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Any idea why the price is going down? I was thinking about normal short-term volatility but it's going down 5% already. Maybe some FUD or sth?

No need to start to get excited until the correction is around 12%.

Presuming $46,788 as our local top, a 12% correction would be around $41,200, and once the correction gets to 15% ($39,800-ish), then it is time to panic.

My current fuck you status projection (presuming $2million as entry level fuck you status) does show that in 10 years (august 2031), it may well take 13.5 BTC to reach fuck you status

10 years to 148K/btc??? since when did you become so bearish?

10 months now.. i can see that as a fairly reasonable guess (SOMA analysis mode of course)

I know that sometimes I might not be very clear in terms of my ongoing desires to attempt to not get overly excited by BTC spot prices (especially peakening tops), so you realize that I have been attempting to make these BTC value projections based on ongoing anticipation of BTC extreme bottoms and not been going by spot price to attempt to fairly assess value (yes I know that people are hesitant to assess BTC value based on anticipated extreme bottoms), but on a personal level I consider it to be safer, especially for anyone who may well be considering NOT engaging in any kinds of extreme diversifications out of BTC and instead deciding to retain a lot of their value in BTC on an ongoing basis and in spite of ongoing and seeming inevitable price volatility.

Any questions?  Did I miss some obvious problematic areas?  Sure maybe presuming 20% per year appreciation in the 208-week moving average is relatively safe, but perhaps in later years (after 2033 or so), maybe it would be more safer to reduce the 20% per year appreciation projection.. perhaps?  perhaps?

Nope, looks good to me. Haven't checked the math (better things to do with my time), but looks about right to me  Smiley

I did it on Excel, so sure there could be a mistake in the formulas that I inputted..


Sticking with a long-term MA as support is a smart move. Everything else in between in simply noise.
Still think $1m can be hit sooner than 2041, but conservative analysis I like  Cool

For sure if the chart is referring to bottoms (and presumptively extreme bottoms), then if the extreme bottom is $1million, the actual spot price or even the top would potentially (and even likely) be quite a bit higher than the listed bottom prices that correspond with each of the dates on the chart.

You likely realize that I tend to be a bit of a critic of those who are making BTC price predictions (especially short term), so for sure, I like to attempt to clearly state my various presumptions, so in that regard, if any of the presumptions change along the way (based on either facts or logic), then the projections are going to need to be tweaked to account for the changes in presumptions (actual on the ground facts / logic changes).

Any questions?  Did I miss some obvious problematic areas?  Sure maybe presuming 20% per year appreciation in the 208-week moving average is relatively safe, but perhaps in later years (after 2033 or so), maybe it would be more safer to reduce the 20% per year appreciation projection.. perhaps?  perhaps?

Nope, looks good to me. Haven't checked the math (better things to do with my time), but looks about right to me  Smiley
Sticking with a long-term MA as support is a smart move. Everything else in between in simply noise.
Still think $1m can be hit sooner than 2041, but conservative analysis I like  Cool

Ooooow already between now and 20y thats fast….  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Hahahahaha

Of course, you are joking a wee bit dude (I can tell by the rolling of the eyes part), but really if you think about that there are relatively conservative estimates of getting a 20x price increase in 20 years, that is still a pretty damned decent return, so even just placing 1% to 10% of your investment portfolio into BTC has decent chances of outperforming other assets in your portfolio..

Surely, more whimpy or hesitant folks would error on the side of 1%, and more aggressive investors may well shoot for 10%.. and still people who study BTC the asset class might decide to go even more aggressive, even though a 10% allocation will likely still provide a considerable amount of wealth - and not even be outrageous in terms of overall allocation percentage.
El duderino_
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August 12, 2021, 05:21:03 PM

Any questions?  Did I miss some obvious problematic areas?  Sure maybe presuming 20% per year appreciation in the 208-week moving average is relatively safe, but perhaps in later years (after 2033 or so), maybe it would be more safer to reduce the 20% per year appreciation projection.. perhaps?  perhaps?

Nope, looks good to me. Haven't checked the math (better things to do with my time), but looks about right to me  Smiley
Sticking with a long-term MA as support is a smart move. Everything else in between in simply noise.
Still think $1m can be hit sooner than 2041, but conservative analysis I like  Cool

Ooooow already between now and 20y thats fast….  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Compared to "the prophecy", it doesn't look like it'll take 20 years at least  Wink



Conservative statistics are more reliable than prophecies however  Wink

That’s true…. Though 20-ish years seems long for an asset as BTC in a market as today… I expect faster considering circumstances of today
JayJuanGee
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August 12, 2021, 05:30:15 PM

Any questions?  Did I miss some obvious problematic areas?  Sure maybe presuming 20% per year appreciation in the 208-week moving average is relatively safe, but perhaps in later years (after 2033 or so), maybe it would be more safer to reduce the 20% per year appreciation projection.. perhaps?  perhaps?

Nope, looks good to me. Haven't checked the math (better things to do with my time), but looks about right to me  Smiley
Sticking with a long-term MA as support is a smart move. Everything else in between in simply noise.
Still think $1m can be hit sooner than 2041, but conservative analysis I like  Cool

Ooooow already between now and 20y thats fast….  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Compared to "the prophecy", it doesn't look like it'll take 20 years at least  Wink



Conservative statistics are more reliable than prophecies however  Wink

Personally, in the whole scheme of things including the fact that there are decent co-integrations of the stock to flow data and that demand can be presumed to be somewhat constant (and kind of on an upward trajectory, even though the model does not specifically address demand beyond kind of presuming it to go up), I consider stock to flow to be relatively conservative, even though it does have some seemingly BIG ass numbers, but it does suffer the error of projecting a kind of mean.. which still may well be quite a bit less helpful on a personal level in terms of attempting to account for what we have experienced to be ongoing great levels of past volatility which also should help us to reasonably presume that pretty extreme levels of BTC price volatility are likely to continue into the future.  

What else would be expected beyond price volatility during a war (even if there seems to be some passive-aggressiveness in terms of some of the war tactics that are being employed and likely to continue to be deployed)?
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August 12, 2021, 05:49:13 PM
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... another aspect of this is total btc locked up in the lightning network is essentially same category as cold storage btc, or oft-quoted "btc that left the exchange"

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August 12, 2021, 05:59:38 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1), Toxic2040 (1)

@bambotpirate
My #Bitcoin  pirate booty is complete 🏴‍☠️  “Wealth isn’t the gold of pirates, wealth is energy.” —Buckminster Fuller on #BTC  Do the #PoW. Laser eyes, realize, real lies.
https://twitter.com/bampotpirate/status/1425465769740095489?s=21



Who’d hit it?

https://twitter.com/bampotpirate/status/1409547464248528910?s=21

ChartBuddy
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August 12, 2021, 06:01:35 PM


Explanation
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August 12, 2021, 06:02:06 PM
Last edit: August 12, 2021, 06:32:36 PM by marcus_of_augustus


Are u retarded or what? Vaccines like software have source code which has been published online and explained. Have you heard about reverse engineering? It's like you have an antivirus software on ur pc and you can reverse engineer it to get the source code and make sure it's not going to format your hard drive  Grin

Downloading a bigger virus does not fix a virus problem. In 3 hours a bat soup toxin is ready
https://odysee.com/@TimTruth:b/downloaded-spike-protein-recipe-china:e

Edit:
CNN health
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/01/health/eua-coronavirus-vaccine-history/index.html
It is colossally stupid to get some toxin injected for something which does not exist.
https://mondestuff.com/world-news/bombshell-covid-does-not-exist-as-a-novel-isolated-virus-proven-in-court-by-courageous-canadian/

.... many a true word spoken in jest?

.... I've heard it said the vaccine is like just the hacked/jail-broken boot-loader/BIOS ... the new OS upgrade comes later
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August 12, 2021, 06:12:19 PM
Merited by Toxic2040 (1)

@bambotpirate
My #Bitcoin  pirate booty is complete 🏴‍☠️  “Wealth isn’t the gold of pirates, wealth is energy.” —Buckminster Fuller on #BTC  Do the #PoW. Laser eyes, realize, real lies.
https://twitter.com/bampotpirate/status/1425465769740095489?s=21



Who’d hit it?

https://twitter.com/bampotpirate/status/1409547464248528910?s=21



Mother of... bitcoin...

https://twitter.com/IwanRabbinstein/status/1425667242772123654
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August 12, 2021, 06:22:05 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

@bambotpirate
My #Bitcoin  pirate booty is complete 🏴‍☠️  “Wealth isn’t the gold of pirates, wealth is energy.” —Buckminster Fuller on #BTC  Do the #PoW. Laser eyes, realize, real lies.
https://twitter.com/bampotpirate/status/1425465769740095489?s=21



Who’d hit it?

https://twitter.com/bampotpirate/status/1409547464248528910?s=21



+1 WOsMerit

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+1 WOsMerit


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August 12, 2021, 06:39:35 PM

$44,000 is the floor for BTC



I suggest HODL-ing and accumulating more BTC because the Stock-to-Flow Model is suggesting something...

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August 12, 2021, 07:01:26 PM


Explanation
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August 12, 2021, 07:23:25 PM

PUMPING DOWN DELTACOIN WWEEEEEEE/\


BACK TO EARTHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH$$$$
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