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Question: Highest price we'll see in 2022:
50,000 - 0 (0%)
60,000 - 0 (0%)
70,000 - 0 (0%)
80,000 - 0 (0%)
90,000 - 0 (0%)
100,000 - 0 (0%)
125,000 - 0 (0%)
150,000 - 0 (0%)
175,000 - 0 (0%)
200,000 - 0 (0%)
225,000 - 0 (0%)
250,000 - 0 (0%)
275,000 - 0 (0%)
300,000 - 0 (0%)
>300,000 - 0 (0%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25528581 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (158 posts by 14 users with 9 merit deleted.)
hisslyness
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October 12, 2021, 12:02:00 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

But one possible buzzkill.  I am pretty sure RTL shows fees as millisats.  In other words 243600 is 243.6 satoshis.

Yeah, column clearly notes "Fee (mSats)".

It feels very greedy setting a 0 base fee, and then a number of "2500" for the LOOP channel fee-rate mSats, just to keep it somewhat "stable" at this stage, and not bleed me dry.

On the other hand, is earning 243 sats on routing 243600 sats a fair trade? Should I reasonably charge more across the board? Is that too much? Not enough?

Not sure how these questions are answered, yet.

It's getting to the point where I want to reduce the number of times where I update all fees for all channels, then go back and re-micro manage each node - as I've already done.

Eg: WO nodes get really low fees. Other people get another level of standard fee. Big fish get charged a larger fee. Would dislike redoing that all to pull in more profit, without getting a sense of "what is fair to begin with" ?

Sorry, very confusing...

No, that's all good.  I am mixed on my fee taking.  I like the idea of zero base fees in general (http://rene-pickhardt.de/), but go back and forth on the other... right now I have them impossibly low 0/1 almost across the board with a handfull of 0/0 channels.  Might change soon.

You shouldn't run your channels at 0/0. There will be no guarantees that the other side will be 0/0 and that funds will travel the other way.

When i first started, and had default fees of basically nothing... it seems my channels were just being taken advantage of and nothing coming back on the other side, because it was either too expensive or there just wasn't any traffic...

It not cheap to open channels and it shouldn't be cheap, or else we are better off just transacting onChain right?

The other benefit, which we don't really appreciate as a routing node, is instant confirmation for the end user... no need to wait for 2-3 blocks! LN is the answer to satoshi questions about the vending machine scenario.

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October 12, 2021, 12:17:56 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

According to me, we are on Case 2 which shows a Price of $68k on 1st Jan 2022.



I had a similar pic for a spring remnant of a downtrend but I used weekly bars which I think is best for wider time frames.  So the September high matches the spring peak prices on mine and we already passed this draw on a downtrend, that would match the recent behavior with a strong rise appearing after a downtrend is beaten.
  The more points a trend meets the greater its likely significance and validation as a real pattern, which is just something I can remember traders giving as a rule to go by.   There is no 100% view, 68k year end sounds more likely then downwards again as we already spent a large part of the year on those lower prices before resolving upwards.    I guess we do get a test at some point though, nothing is easy.  Im bullish above 50k
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October 12, 2021, 01:01:25 AM


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October 12, 2021, 01:16:33 AM

maybe I go to sleep and awake to 60k Grin
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October 12, 2021, 02:01:25 AM


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October 12, 2021, 02:54:14 AM




https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1447515907190841354
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October 12, 2021, 03:01:33 AM


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October 12, 2021, 04:01:25 AM


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October 12, 2021, 04:26:33 AM
Merited by BobLawblaw (2)

When i first started, and had default fees of basically nothing... it seems my channels were just being taken advantage of and nothing coming back on the other side, because it was either too expensive or there just wasn't any traffic...

Fee rates should be more dynamic. If there's no traffic going out, lower the fees. If too much traffic is going out, raise the fees. It shouldn't need manual intervention.
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October 12, 2021, 05:01:25 AM


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October 12, 2021, 05:54:46 AM


Below $100k EOY? That's fucking bearish!  Huh Undecided
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October 12, 2021, 06:01:35 AM


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October 12, 2021, 06:14:35 AM



We have many Gganbu' s here on WO. So we have one new word for all the holders  Wink
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October 12, 2021, 07:01:25 AM


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October 12, 2021, 07:38:04 AM


Dots will catch the grey line….
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October 12, 2021, 07:38:25 AM


Dots will catch the grey line….
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October 12, 2021, 08:01:25 AM


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October 12, 2021, 08:11:49 AM

Great episode of Pomp’s podcast the Better Business Show today. He had Plan B on to discuss the Stock to Flow model. They made some great points and had some interesting discussion about when the stock to flow model will break (hint, soon). It’s worth the watch whether or not you’re familiar with the stock to flow model if you’re curious about Bitcoin’s price movement.

https://youtu.be/ytmhmixeCRo
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October 12, 2021, 10:01:26 AM


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