Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OgNasty]

That dip under $40K didn't last long.  You can see that there's demand waiting to buy the dips now and the floor keeps rising.  I'm a bit surprised with all the Do Kwon buying along with Saylor out doing his promo thing we're still seeing Bitcoin's price decline in the short term.  I thought Do Kwon was going to carry us above $50,000 and then that might set off a wave of FOMO that would push us back towards the highs.  It seems people are being smarter about their purchases now, which has me thinking that maybe retail investors have run out of speculative funds to throw into crypto and we're now seeing large funds looking to scoop up deals as opposed to retail buyers FOMO'ing the price to overvalued levels.  I'd feel pretty good about buying in with the big boys under $40K here, even though cyclically we should be seeing a downturn in price at this point in time.

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

That dip under $40K didn't last long.  You can see that there's demand waiting to buy the dips now and the floor keeps rising.  I'm a bit surprised with all the Do Kwon buying along with Saylor out doing his promo thing we're still seeing Bitcoin's price decline in the short term.  I thought Do Kwon was going to carry us above $50,000 and then that might set off a wave of FOMO that would push us back towards the highs.  It seems people are being smarter about their purchases now, which has me thinking that maybe retail investors have run out of speculative funds to throw into crypto and we're now seeing large funds looking to scoop up deals as opposed to retail buyers FOMO'ing the price to overvalued levels.  I'd feel pretty good about buying in with the big boys under $40K here, even though cyclically we should be seeing a downturn in price at this point in time.

Or cycles no longer apply due to smaller mining block rewards and less fees for miners due to LN network.

Time will tell if this is simply 2018  before the hash rise price drop 9 month pattern that turned up.

[Richy_T]

Well, record inflation, tax refunds incoming and bitcoin just hanging out in the doldrums. Really, I'm not expecting a big rally until the next halving but this is just kinda silly.

Exactly my thoughts. It's hard to be bullish as of now, world is about to enter recession.

That's the part where all the moneys the rich have been pumping the stock market with come home to roost and the rest of us get scalped.

[Cryptotourist]

A "nice" Cryptotourist?  wouldn't that be an oxymoron (pun intended)?

Nah.
Nice to see you try to tackle the Greek language.

As an added thought, your quants would feel right at home if they were programmed in Greek. #just.saying

Secondly:  Hypothetically going into JJG comparison mode, would call for long?  deep?  mean? or some other approach?

Wait. I was only referring to the daunting “walls of text” - in my usual personal style - insulting n all.

Maybe I should not be asking the above questions, right?  You know there's an expression about not feeding "them," right?  

I make sure to feed all my pets on the WO. That includes you too.

My own moments of weakness might be identifiable within this post?

What weakness? You are not Turing certified yet, yo.

'Crypto for Good': Ukrainian Official Shares Photo of New Military Equipment

Good thing it was “crypto” and not Bitcoin.

Please western media, tell me more about how Putin is the only bad man whilst we have completely full proof high standard moral leaders in power ourselves.

+3 WO’s merit.

Arrie would like to have a word with you.

Is Jesus back yet
I have looked through the window
I couldn't se him

Repent and you just might.
Never too late, but you will have to say you’re sorry - and really mean it.

I understand that the archangel Michael is the patron saint of Ukraine. That expalins a few things.

Just when I thought that your Nazi propaganda could not get any worse.
Come on, show us your true colours.

Or cycles no longer apply due to smaller mining block rewards and less fees for miners due to LN network.

It’s called a halving for a reason ya know.
Block reward is always half of what it used to be in the cycle prior to the halving.

Elementary math philp, it’s what drives the price. BTW, LN has no real future - centralised junk that it is.
But enough about that - let’s talk about rainbows and unicorns instead, and what ever you do - please don’t tilt.

[Cryptotourist]

[Yawn]

Hang on

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

I am not even saying that the 200-week moving average might not be touched before we get another ATH...

[...]

If/when the 200-Week MA indicator is touched, it will be the third time in Bitcoin's 13-year-long history.

1st touch: 3-Sep-2015 (200-Week MA: $234, Spot: $231)
2nd touch: 12-Mar-2020 (200-Week MA: $5488, Spot: $5143)

There was one more time that the 200-Week MA was almost touched: 14-Feb-2019 (200-Week MA: $3319 Spot: $3583). This, together with the 2021 ATHs could be seen as evidence to support the bearish scenario described below.

Touching the 200-Week MA indicator is a rare event, which, based on past historical data, appears to possess some useful properties:

1. Periodicity — Its occurrence correlates with Bitcoin's 4-year Halving cycle. Specifically, it appears to occur some months before Halving.
2. Correlation with ATH — ATHs tend to occur about 2 years after the 200-Week MA touch events.

Bullish scenario — Based on the dates of the above 200-Week MA touch events, the ATH associated with the 2nd touch may not have occurred yet (the 2021 ATHs happened too soon and for odd reasons, and do not quite satisfy the 2nd property above). In fact, according to the 2nd property, the next ATH should come around this time (1st half of 2022). It is possible that this has not yet happened due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and other world events. Based on the above, it is reasonable to expect the next ATH to occur sometime in 2022.

Bearish scenario — If what Jay describes as a possibility in the quote above actually happens, i.e., that the 200-Week MA is touched before we get another ATH, then this would shift upcoming events further into the future, by treating the 2021 ATHs as the main ATH events of this cycle. Specifically, the next 200-Week MA touch event should occur sometime in late 2023 (say, 6 months before the Halving of March 2024—property 1), followed by the upcoming ATH, which should occur around 2 years later (property 2). This gives us an expected ATH date of late 2025.

Without disregarding the bearish scenario, I'm more inclined to place my bets on the bullish scenario, given that we are still somewhat early in the 4-year cycle, and lots of things are happening in the world that could be putting a downward pressure on price, and thus inserting a time lag in the upcoming price action events. However, anything is possible, really, and we could be in for a long wait to reach ATH and beyond. Regardless, I'm not worried at all. It's not an IF, but a WHEN, and it will certainly happen "soon" in a monetary investment timescale.

GTCTTWW — HoDL.

[Numerical Data Source] LookIntoBitcoin — 200 Week Moving Average Heatmap

[savetherainforest]

[...]

I am not even saying that the 200-week moving average might not be touched before we get another ATH...

[...]

If/when the 200-Week MA indicator is touched, it will be the third time in Bitcoin's 13-year-long history.

1st touch: 3-Sep-2015 (200-Week MA: $234, Spot: $231)
2nd touch: 12-Mar-2020 (200-Week MA: $5488, Spot: $5143)

There was one more time that the 200-Week MA was almost touched: 14-Feb 2019 (200-Week MA: $3319 Spot: $3583). This, together with the March 2021 ATH could be seen as evidence to support the bearish scenario described below.

Touching the 200-Week MA indicator is a rare event, which, based on past historical data, appears to possess some useful properties:

1. Periodicity — Its occurrence correlates with Bitcoin's 4-year Halving cycle. Specifically, it appears to occur some months before Halving.
2. Correlation with ATH — ATHs tend to occur about 2 years after the 200-Week MA touch event.

Bullish scenario — Based on the dates of the above 200-Week MA touch events, the ATH associated with the 2nd touch may not have occurred yet (the ATH on March 2021 happened too soon and does not satisfy the 2nd property above). In fact, according to the 2nd property, the next ATH should come around this time (1st half of 2022). It is possible that this has not yet happened due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and other world events. Based on the above, it is reasonable to expect the next ATH to occur sometime in 2022.

Bearish scenario — If what Jay describes as a possibility in the quote above actually happens, i.e., that the 200-Week MA is touched before we get another ATH, then this would shift upcoming events further into the future, by treating the March 2021 ATH as the main ATH of this cycle. Specifically, the next 200-Week MA touch event should occur sometime in late 2023 (say, 6 months before the Halving of March 2024—property 1), followed by the upcoming ATH, which should occur around 2 years later (property 2). This gives us an expected ATH date of late 2025.

Without disregarding the bearish scenario, I'm more inclined to place my bets on the bullish scenario, given that we are still somewhat early in the 4-year cycle, and lots of things are happening in the world that could be putting a downward pressure on price, and thus inserting a time lag in the upcoming price action events. However, anything is possible, really, and we could be in for a long wait to reach ATH and beyond. Regardless, I'm not worried at all. It's not an IF, but a WHEN, and it will certainly happen "soon" in a monetary investment timescale.

GTCTTWW — HoDL.

[Numerical Data Source] LookIntoBitcoin — 200 Week Moving Average Heatmap

Man! Can you stop feeding the nihilist trolls?? Juanita is a nihilism full fledged troll. He probably is being paid by the Wall Street Journal to write here daily or for who the f^ck he is working for.. and to seed doubt into your weak minds.    

"Juanita Nihilism Troll"     .. that should be your description man.    

He is like a f^cking negative piece of sh!t that always invokes and involves memories of bad times! And many people that might read this thread daily to understand sh!t. Like I did in the first 1-2 years, from the shadows, to learn and understand. (had to read about 1000 pages before I got the gist about wtf is happening in the mega thread)   

Just be like and do like, you know, only happy thoughts and always buying thoughts, the price will never go down and we will always be forever happy. And the price of BTCiTcoin will do better if we all do that. There is no low price in BTCiTcoin, there are only the same amount of 'coins' and will always be the same amount of limited coins that will ever be created.    

If someone ever needs some cash sometimes, it is their problem!!!!!!! Concerning about low prices is only valid if you care about selling!!!!!! But if you are never going to sell, why should a low price matter?? IT IS A F^CKING DISCOUNT !!

[Arriemoller]

The spring offensive has started.

And archangel Michael is sending rain over the battle field.


The head of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Danilov, said that Russians started second phase of the invasion.

“This morning, along entire front line of Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions occupiers attempted to break through our defences,” said Danilov.

BREAKING: Battle of Donbas starts, Zelensky says. President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia had concentrated a significant part of its forces for the offensive in the east of Ukraine. “No matter how many soldiers are drawn there, we will defend ourselves. We will fight. We will not give up anything Ukrainian,” he said in a recent address.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[empowering]

[Arriemoller]

Oh look all you Putinverstehers and scumbags, it's the archangel killing antichrist.

[Torque]

https://news.bitcoin.com/goldman-predicts-us-recession-odds-at-35-in-2-years-john-mauldin-wouldnt-be-surprised-if-stocks-fell-40/

That article is total FUD bullshit.

If stocks truly fell by 40%, or even 20%, they would literally rally back the following week, and hit new ATHs within the month.

[Torque]

That dip under $40K didn't last long.  You can see that there's demand waiting to buy the dips now and the floor keeps rising.  I'm a bit surprised with all the Do Kwon buying along with Saylor out doing his promo thing we're still seeing Bitcoin's price decline in the short term.  I thought Do Kwon was going to carry us above $50,000 and then that might set off a wave of FOMO that would push us back towards the highs.  It seems people are being smarter about their purchases now, which has me thinking that maybe retail investors have run out of speculative funds to throw into crypto and we're now seeing large funds looking to scoop up deals as opposed to retail buyers FOMO'ing the price to overvalued levels.  I'd feel pretty good about buying in with the big boys under $40K here, even though cyclically we should be seeing a downturn in price at this point in time.

Or cycles no longer apply due to smaller mining block rewards and less fees for miners due to LN network.

Or how about even a new paradigm shift, where Wall Street insiders and rich billionaires start making mega investments in bitcoin within the $30-35K range because they know that the WS whales won't let them lose money?

[psycodad]

Just a heads-up:

TraderTraitor: North Korean State-Sponsored APT Targets Blockchain Companies
Original release date: April 18, 2022

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), and the U.S. Treasury Department (Treasury) are issuing this joint Cybersecurity Advisory (CSA) to highlight the cyber threat associated with cryptocurrency thefts and tactics used by a North Korean state-sponsored advanced persistent threat (APT) group since at least 2020. This group is commonly tracked by the cybersecurity industry as Lazarus Group, APT38, BlueNoroff, and Stardust Chollima. For more information on North Korean state-sponsored malicious cyber activity, visit https://www.us-cert.cisa.gov/northkorea.

The U.S. government has observed North Korean cyber actors targeting a variety of organizations in the blockchain technology and cryptocurrency industry, including cryptocurrency exchanges, decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, play-to-earn cryptocurrency video games, cryptocurrency trading companies, venture capital funds investing in cryptocurrency, and individual holders of large amounts of cryptocurrency or valuable non-fungible tokens (NFTs).
<snip>

[BobLawblaw]

$40k is nothing.

$50k is nothing.

$60k is nothing.

I want to see $70k before I'm impressed again.

[Cosmic Beyonders]

$40k is nothing.

$50k is nothing.

$60k is nothing.

I want to see $70k before I'm impressed again.

Quite Agreed.
But point is for that
Wait for 2023
Because 2022 has not enough potential to make BTC hit a New ATH .
May be 2022 make BTC hit 100k but still market is moving side ways 4 months ended lets see 5th one.
Accept and trade.



A majour Pull back by BTC and again now BTC majour Support level is 40500$. That week will be Beneficial now.

Market trend from Last 3 months is A little Correction always on Monday now its Tuesday and Expecting a Rally again towards 50k

[Gachapin]

$40k is nothing.

$50k is nothing.

$60k is nothing.

I want to see $70k before I'm impressed again.

...reading the word "impressed", this shit just crossed my mind again

Vitalik clapping
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lmNpMSPu0k

[Arriemoller]

"Frontline East of Zaporozhye right now.

This is literally the largest battle since operation Desert Storm 30 years ago, or maybe even WW2."

https://twitter.com/IntelArrow/status/1516168617565593610?s=20&t=sK4JZme2iFR-Y4xfnLSM3g

Edit: some comments claims that it's an old video, but it's cool nevertheless.

[aesma]

Nice spike to 43K on Kraken, triggered a couple orders, and now back down, someone bought 17BTC apparently.