Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

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[JayJuanGee]

@JJG...no smug, but seems to be right for a few mo.
Would be one of the happieest if we pop above 60K, though.

I am not even saying that you do not have some rights to be smug, even if I am calling you a fucker the whole time.

 

For sure, the BTC price's taking the $69k to $32,951 correction since November 9th has put some dampers on some of the UPpity potentialities, so surely, I doubt that I am living in any kind of fantasy in my own expectations, hopes and assignment of probabilities, which I will concede both have to move downward when we get stuck in these lower prices, and also with the passage of time, then it becomes less likely that the BTC price can overcome some of the resistances to both start a kind of upwards climb and then to allow for ongoing momentum that is not significantly or meaningfully corrected - whether we are referring to a calendar year (such as 2022) timeframe or we are attempting to adjust the timeframe as we go to possibly make the timeframe longer to account for the lack of UPpity movement with the passage of time.

Furthermore, I am not even going to presume that we are going to have to stick with the earlier framings of the stock-to-flow model and/or the 4-year fractal - if the actual factual performance of BTC prices have been drawing us outside of some of the logical underpinnings of those framworks.  

Even at this time, as I type this post, I don't consider the stock-to-flow nor the 4-year fractal to be out of play yet - even though I can appreciate the compellingness such framings continue to diminish with the passage of time... such as already having had passed through nearly 4 months into 2022.

And, yeah, even our recent pushes to get above $46k on a couple of occasions did not solidly cause us to have confidence that the $32,951 bottom is "in" even though having had spent more than a week over $46k (in late March/early April) does give some higher levels of confidence (maybe not quite higher than 50%) that the $32,951 bottom is "in".. and even I had moved my own goal posts regarding the matter of what would cause the bottom of $32,951 to be considered to be "in" even before $46k had been surpassed in late March - about a month ago.

That said, bitcoiners need to focus our collective attention on those who wish us harm.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2022/04/24/target-the-bitcoin-price-internal-documents-reveal-how-the-eu-could-try-to-ban-bitcoin-and-protect-ethereum/

Of course, ongoingly there are some real bullshit talking points out there, and even if some of these negative campaigns (regulatory happenings) might end up playing out to contribute towards slowing down in bitcoin's UPpity scenarios, there still are no sound money competitors even if various government regulations start to side towards the propping up of smoke and mirror houses of cards.. They are likely to impose their own costs upon themselves if they are going to provide favoritism to the various scamming systems - not that fiat does not already have some of its own misleading and scamming elements.

Since both you and I know that bitcoin does not have any marketing team beyond the voluntary passions of a bunch of individuals, I doubt that "we" as a community really need to come together to agree to combat the same things - even though it is quite likely that there would end up being a lot of backlash from a lot of bitcoiners if the EU or other various European governments were to be so dumb in their enactment of some of those kinds of regulatory efforts favoring ETH over BTC.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[danadc]

I have been seeing and learning what I can of technical analysis, I like the points of view that has cointelegraph on the market, but I like it more than when everyone gives as a detail that the price of BTC will go down, there are analysis so they are the ones who question Almost everything and most times is the one that is right:

“Prepare yourself for the next runup. Historically speaking, this has been one of the best ranges for buying Bitcoin!” popular YouTuber Crypto Rover argued alongside a chart comparing Bitcoin price performance to the strength of the United States dollar.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-funding-rates-show-demand-to-short-btc-as-40k-becomes-resistance



As I do not like to stay with only 1 point of view, on Twitter there are always interesting analyzes:



Twitter Source: https://twitter.com/VailshireCap/status/1518330414753992704

The long-term trend is Bullish, then things go by very good path. I am not an investment counselor, but Bitcoin is very good for those who are undecided if buying or not, this is a good reason to do it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AverageGlabella]

No, don't wake up, please. More people wasting their money on imaginary bullshit - less overcrowding / price pressure / etc on the things that I want. People dumb enough to buy into sugarmark's metaverse I probably wouldn't want to meet IRL anyway.

Most are children that think they can get rich quick with whatever the news is pushing onto them I would not judge them to much they are just desperate people. They might wake up some day when they are older.

[savetherainforest]

I don't get it why people are envious on sh!tcoins.    

In my perspective, being able to own sh!tcoins, is the equivalent of being an american an being able to buy guns.

It is a contingency in case of something happens. For example China can't invade US, because they have guns (Even if they have a huge population).
And Ukraine would not have happened if the citizens had the right to bare arms and Russia couldn't invade.    

*edit(): So in conclusion, everyone has the right to bare sh!tcoins. (Just in case the banks will have too many BTCiTcoins and will try to control things.)
Because if any banks, system, company, government has too much of it then they are in control. And the only way to devalue BTCiTcoin is trought sh!tcoins, and the power will be more divided and eroded.
It is the only way to devalue the banks and governments that try to buy too much BTCiTcoin.    

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

#haikuSunday
the world is crazy
there are times nothing makes sense
best time to stack sats




-----------------



the Sunday wall report


def seems like more down than more up at this point
tomorrow is going to be volatile in legacy markets and will likely see a continuing selloff started late in last weeks closing session

https://www.cnn.com/business/markets/premarkets

4 hour is not showing much other than extremely thin liquidity
daily showing market indecision with a spinning top candle
weekly is presenting a gravestone
a long legged doji with the price closely contested near the bottom

nothing has changed imo
I dont think bitcoin has the strength to move against the markets right now
i just dont
i wish it would...I really do...would love to see it pump back towards ath's and beyond
with the current macro economic picture....seems a big ask

find places to stack sats and DCA in    and dyor


4h


D


W

strtonghands

Accumulation is where we are at until the Fed is finished playing bad cop. It's that simple. Any ATHs or lengthy bullish moves can be forgotten about until that time comes.

[Biodom]

Accumulation is where we are at until the Fed is finished playing bad cop. It's that simple. Any ATHs or lengthy bullish moves can be forgotten about until that time comes.

if it is that simple, then it is NOT digital gold, but what, then?

[shahzadafzal]

Is it?

https://twitter.com/mars_hodl/status/1518320822179573762?s=21

[somac.]

Accumulation is where we are at until the Fed is finished playing bad cop. It's that simple. Any ATHs or lengthy bullish moves can be forgotten about until that time comes.

if it is that simple, then it is NOT digital gold, but what, then?

Its digital gold alright, but only those who look further out than the short-term can see that. In decades time everyone will see how digital gold it is.

These thing take time. I'm sure 10 years after the first person who decided gold was a thing. The other 99% of the global population didn't even know about it, yet alone the importantce of its value.

What's more, if the Fed is increasing the value of the dollar, which they are, the value of digital gold and real gold will go down. To expect otherwise makes no sense.

[Toxic2040]

the Sunday evening wall report

*Edit*

Down sharply since press time...currently trading near $39kish

Bitcoin closing out the weekly candle at $39,467.40 on medium sized distribution...down another 0.56% in what has been a bearish April. Falling 15.56% on the month...and 18% on the year and 43.77% from the ATH.

batten down the freakin hatches and hodl on...im sure it can get worse and it might but so what...bring it..there are no strangers to the high seas here

dyor



4h


D


W

stronghands

[Dabs]

https://news.bitcoin.com/study-25-of-us-crypto-investors-either-own-or-plan-to-acquire-land-in-metaverse/

The other 75% have brain cells and are GMI.

That's definitely going to be the new craze. People will go bananas over metaverse properties. No joke.

It will crash and burn eventually, of course. But we'll get to see some crazy shit in the next few years.

Meanwhile, some of us are buying real property in the real world.

Or is owning real property in meatspace so 2018 now? So passé?

sure, people are interested, but increasingly not being able to afford RE.
As i was posting before: house was 3x yearly salary in the 70ies, but 10-30X yearly salary in 2022, with 30x on the coasts.
When mortgage goes to 8% (and it probably will), we might have another crisis. Either prices would have to go down or demand would plunge and people would have difficulty to move.
In some ways it is already starting as everyone has 3% or below mortgages, but when they buy a new house, it is more like 5%.

Real property is as real as it gets. It's a piece of something that is in one particular location. That is both it's advantage and disadvantage. It is tied to that location, that lot, that piece of property with particular boundaries. It will not move. (there are some houses that move physically, but those are more "interesting" things rather than the point of owning real estate.)

If it's a unit in a building, well, that building is also not going to move.

The thing is, you don't really really own it, or because you do own property, you have to pay taxes on it every year. You need to pay maintenance costs on it. Nevermind the utilities if you actually live there because you'll pay for all that too.

There is a cost to owning real property in meatspace that has to be paid, otherwise you'll find yourself not owning it soon when some authority or government takes away your ownership. For some places, it can be cheap relative to the size of the property. In other cases, such as apartments or condominiums, you have to pay monthly or annual dues to the building.

On top of the price of any property, on top of mortgage payments, you have to add some buffer to pay for all that other stuff to ensure you retain ownership. Most people forget this part.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

Did you mean PlanB by Any Chance?

nah, search for "bitboy crypto" on youtube, but better not search as he is full of gas.

[JayJuanGee]

I don't get it why people are envious on sh!tcoins.    

In my perspective, being able to own sh!tcoins, is the equivalent of being an american an being able to buy guns.

It is a contingency in case of something happens. For example China can't invade US, because they have guns (Even if they have a huge population).
And Ukraine would not have happened if the citizens had the right to bare arms and Russia couldn't invade.    

*edit(): So in conclusion, everyone has the right to bare sh!tcoins. (Just in case the banks will have too many BTCiTcoins and will try to control things.)
Because if any banks, system, company, government has too much of it then they are in control. And the only way to devalue BTCiTcoin is trought sh!tcoins, and the power will be more divided and eroded.
It is the only way to devalue the banks and governments that try to buy too much BTCiTcoin.    

It's funny that you don't even get the meme that had been shown, and you characterize the situation in a kind of opposite way... as if shitcoins have some kind of power and meaning.

Get a fucking grip you dweeb.  


The only monetary asset thingie-ma-jiggie that we potentially have, so far, that will be putting any kind of meaningful check on banks is your should be lillie fiend, aka king daddy, aka bitcoin.  

In a general sense, the various shitcoins currently in existence may well serve as spending vehicles that would be spent before bitcoin, and maybe even serve as some kind of a decoy in regards towards making it so obvious that bitcoin is where the power is.. .

Hey think about it this way.  The decoyative power of shitcoins has been so effective, so far, that uie pooie, save the rf, actually don't even understand that they are a decoy - even though you have in theory been attempting to study this space for 6 years, if we were to go by your forum registration date.

I though that it would be good to respond to your nonsense in case maybe some newbie were to speculate that you might actually know something not that any of us regulars in this thread would consider that you did not have several screws loose, if not completely missing... hahahahahahaha

Accumulation is where we are at until the Fed is finished playing bad cop. It's that simple. Any ATHs or lengthy bullish moves can be forgotten about until that time comes.

Oh gawd!!!!!    

You really believe that the Fed is calling the shots in regards to what bitcoin (king daddy) is doing?

Yes, we can likely agree that there are some manipulative tools in place to attempt to keep BTC prices from rising, but those use of those tools could surely end up blowing up on some of the folks who are thinking that they are going to be able to control bitcoin like they have largely been successful with in terms of Gold..  

Bitcoin is not gold... helrow?

Accumulation is where we are at until the Fed is finished playing bad cop. It's that simple. Any ATHs or lengthy bullish moves can be forgotten about until that time comes.

if it is that simple, then it is NOT digital gold, but what, then?

What he said. (referring to Biodom)

[edited out]

Its digital gold alright, but only those who look further out than the short-term can see that. In decades time everyone will see how digital gold it is.

These thing take time. I'm sure 10 years after the first person who decided gold was a thing. The other 99% of the global population didn't even know about it, yet alone the importantce of its value.

What's more, if the Fed is increasing the value of the dollar, which they are, the value of digital gold and real gold will go down. To expect otherwise makes no sense.

Snap out of it somac!!!!!!!

 


 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

@JJG...not smug, but seem to be right for a few mo.
Would be one of the happiest if we pop above 60K, though.

That said, bitcoiners need to focus our collective attention on those who wish us harm.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2022/04/24/target-the-bitcoin-price-internal-documents-reveal-how-the-eu-could-try-to-ban-bitcoin-and-protect-ethereum/

‘Target The Bitcoin Price’—Internal Documents Reveal How The EU Could Crack Down On Bitcoin And ‘Protect’ Ethereum

I believe I foretold this possibility.  It could be a nasty speed bump along the way.  Though it will not succeed.

Here's the reasoning.  Eventually they will realize that there are ways they can collude to control Ethereum, but Bitcoin solves the problem that THEY ARE.  Eventually the strategy looks like "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em."  But they will figure out they can take enough control of ETH to be able to remain in control.  Particularly one the Ethereum foundation rolls out the red carpet for them.

These are all the things that centralization begets. 

But you can't stop the truth of Bitcoin.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation