Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Elian is a narcissist that will fire or ban anyone that disagrees with him as he has proven throughout his career.

jep!


Coming back to the question "who is a bitcoiner?"  I really would love to know how everybody in the WO thinks about that expression, or better how everybody defines it in measurable terms.

Both suchmoon and i have addressed this question, and over the years, there has been quite a bit of discussion of the topic of what is a bitcoiner, and we seem to have quite a few regular participants in the WO who seem to be way more "bitcoiners" than what Elon Musk seems to be - furthermore, you Gachapin, proclaimed that you thought that Elon might well be more of a bitcoiner than most of the members participating in the WO because he owns more bitcoin than them, and that is a really dumb-ass way of thinking about what constitutes a bitcoiner, especially when you are referring to one of the richest persons in the world happening to own more bitcoin than most of the folks here..and gosh, he might even own less than .0001% of his wealth in bitcoin and still own more than 99% of the regular members here.. Do you even know how to calculate the meaning of having something like 273 Billion dollars in wealth compared to maybe some members here possibly being Millionaires but not as likely to even have more than several million in wealth?

...... [edited out - cited articles and links].....

Although it is a very possible scenario to pass, we must bear in mind that this can be a news that causes some FUD, although we can convert it into an advantage at the time the others sell to take advantage and buy.
...... [edited out - cited articles and links].....

Of course, you likely realize that any of us attempting to study the bitcoin space (and the available information) have to sort the wheat from the chaff.  There are times when the level of bullshit is more convincing than other times, and at the same time, many of us who have been paying attention in this space have seen that there have been times of seeming bitcoin DOWNity inevitability that ended up going UP instead of down, and seriously fucking those who were either betting on down or failing/refusing to prepare for UP.

Such dynamics have happened many times in bitcoin's relatively short history, and I have a decent amount of time that such dynamics are going to continue to happen for many years to come.. especially since adoption levels in bitcoin continue to be so low, so many people continue to believe that they missed their opportunity to profit from bitcoin and bitcoin continues to have so much potentiality (and seeming likelihood) to continue to have face-melting UPpity moves - even if relatively speaking such moves are going to be percentage-wise smaller than they had been in the past... merely because bitcoin continues to grow in its overall market cap. and there are some limits in the amount of growth that is possible even if it is quite likely that bitcoin is going to continue to open up areas of wealth that had not been previously possible because it has already shown itself to be a paradigm-shifting technology/invention.

[1714221549]

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[1714221549]

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[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Personally, I think you conflate the terms "Bitcoiner" and "Bitcoin Maximalist". I believe that once you start collecting BTC you are a Bitcoiner, but with some level of intelligence and a modicum of basic research, , that should lead most to the the Maximalist conclusion..

Even if I don't really disagree with your overall point, you seem to be engaging in a certain level of irrelevant quibbling.. in other words, you seem to be making a distinction without a difference (or that is not really necessary to get into those kinds of seemingly unimportant distinctions).. even if I agree with the overall point that bitcoin should tend to grow upon most of us and moreso with the passage of time getting involved in bitcoin does seem to cause those bitcoiners to have more likelihoods of more better understanding bitcoin with the passage of time (not inevitable, but quite likely)...even though there are a lot of things in this world that we do not really understand very well, but we accept them on a level in which we recognize that they are a kind of standard in society.

If you drive a car you're a driver... but not until you start buying your own tools, doing your own tune ups, and craving more muscle/speed do you become a car enthusiast.

Just my opinion, to each his own.

Fair examples.

Is that you richie?  you fuck.  #nohomo



I know I understand that you are celebrating $40k with the WO, but you just left a great opening for anyone, such as yours truly who loves to get digs in, once in a while.. hahahahahaha

[Gachapin]

...you Gachapin, proclaimed that you thought that Elon might well be more of a bitcoiner than most of the members participating in the WO because he owns more bitcoin than them,...

Nope. That's absolutely not what I meant.

Again:
For me anyone with BTC is a Bitcoiner. I made that clear enough.

So in that view Musk has to be one as well, because he holds BTC, even more than most WOers.

But if you still don't get what I say. Have your way. No problem

[JayJuanGee]

...you Gachapin, proclaimed that you thought that Elon might well be more of a bitcoiner than most of the members participating in the WO because he owns more bitcoin than them,...

Nope. That's absolutely not what I meant.

Again:
For me anyone with BTC is a Bitcoiner. I made that clear enough.

So in that view Musk has to be one as well, because he holds BTC, even more than most WOers.

But if you still don't get what I say. Have your way. No problem

Yes.. what you say is problematic... and you can believe or say whatever you like.

Part of the greatness of having this thread is that we can bat around ideas, and we do not have to agree with each other in terms of substance or in terms of how to present matters, and I don't have any problems with you continuing to say and to frame matters however you like - but it is not going to stop me from responding or proclaiming your ways to be problematic, as I just did... whether you get it or not is either within you, or maybe you don't want to get it.... or you might be unable of getting it, and that's fine too.  

Another great thing about bitcoin, is that we do not even have to agree what it is or how it is used or how it should be used... even though some members do seem to see bitcoin in similar ways, and others seem to evolve with time, and there are areas in which several members continue to disagree with each other and from time to time, such disagreements result in name calling.. you fuck (Admittedly, from time to time, I might need to get a bit more variety in my word choices).

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

Is that you richie?  you fuck.  #nohomo

Just a stock photo I'm afraid. My own 40 crossing was more than a few moons ago.

[philipma1957]

I am not sure what Elon's actual position on Bitcoin is.

There is the Doge red flag.  And at the same time I cannot imagine he has been without some tutelage.  Someone must have helped him understand the reason putting everything on the base layer is not a real possibility without centralization.  you know... the thing that Hal Finney got in 2010.

So taking this down Binary paths:

He has not realized that basic fact for L1  - then he is either a moron (unlikely) or arrogantly unteachable (quite possible).

He HAS realized that but either does not care, or wants the centralization which makes him evil.

He HAS realized it but is being very careful about what he promotes after having wrecked a bunch of his acolytes.

Between Jack, and Saylor it's hard to imagine they have not talked about it with him, and explained why scaling in layers is the optimal solution.  And also why Doge is probably doomed even worse than Bitcoin when it comes to bloat.  I also think there is a sincere chance he actually believes the "inflation is needed for velocity.  And he does not know that Bitcoin has solved this by reducing technical friction so much that we will see spending simply because of that.

So we will get to see which one of those categories he is in.  To be honest I would not place a bet for any of it yet.  And I pride myself in being a good people reader, and troubleshooter.  It is very hard to tell with him.  I do get the sense he isa bit of a narcissist.  And is also on the spectrum somewhat.  But he also seems to be an idealist.  It will be instructive to see what he does with twitter, and as we move forward with crypto.

I say "crypto" because I would be surprised if he did not do more things to support Doge, sadly.  Even if he has seen the light with BTC, I would expect a high possibility that he would try to make something good out of the giant mess he's made with Doge.  It would be better if he just stopped playing, but I think this is unlikely.

I think Elon Sees the same dual path that I see.

BTC = 10000 Dollar T-Bill

Doge = Lesser denomination.

LN may kill BTC and mining in 7-8  more ½ ings

BTW doge has ever decreasing inflation

and has solved the reward issue for miners.

BTC and LN may have killed mining when blocks are:

 3.125 btc --------2024
 1.5625 btc ------ 2028
 0.78125 btc ----- 2032
 0.390625 btc----- 2036
 0.1953125 btc --- 2040
 0.09765625 btc -- 2044
(edit)  0.048828125 btc - 2048 7  ½ ings away. I will be 91 and likely not care (edit) too much.

But I think Elon has enough wealth to hedge.  which is what he is doing.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ImThour]

Sup, how are you peeps?

Bitcoin is trading at $40k. I saw news that COVID is spreading again in China, can affect the market.
Also, Elon buying Twitter is total shit show. He is going to ask people do KYC to get a verification mark on Twitter (won't be like the White Verified Tick though)

And, Fuck Dogecoin.

[Toxic2040]

the evening wall report


Bitcoin up today 2.5% on strong volume after seeing over a 6% swing early in the session

overhead resistance at $41.25kish on the daily and support rising towards $39.4kish

the scent of a breeze on the air

steady as she goes


dyor

4h


D

stronghands

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I think Elon Sees the same dual path that I see.

BTC = 10000 Dollar T-Bill

Doge = Lesser denomination.

LN may kill BTC and mining in 7-8  more ½ ings

BTW doge has ever decreasing inflation

and has solved the reward issue for miners.

BTC and LN may have killed mining when blocks are:

 3.125 btc --------2024
 1.5625 btc ------ 2028
 0.78125 btc ----- 2032
 0.390625 btc----- 2036
 0.1953125 btc --- 2040
 0.09765625 btc -- 2044
 0.038828125 btc - 2048 7  ½ ings away. I will be 91 and likely not care too much

But I think Elon has enough wealth to hedge.  which is what he is doing.

Oh gawd......

Is it even possible that both you and Elon are goofy and delirious as fuck in the same synchronized direction to not understand bitcoin.. and have dumb ideas even though both of you should know better?  What a strange world it is.

Say it is not so.  Wake me up, at some point.

the evening wall report


Bitcoin up today 2.5% on strong volume after seeing over a 6% swing early in the session

overhead resistance at $41.25kish on the daily and support rising towards $39.4kish

the scent of a breeze on the air

steady as she goes


dyor

seems as if you were talking a lot of doom and gloom just a day or two ago, and the tide seems to be shifting, slowly but surly...

[cAPSLOCK]

LN may kill BTC and mining in 7-8  more ½ ings

This statement always boggles me.

LN may indeed begin to pay it's nodes more than a miner will make from the SUBSIDY.  But LN nodes along with every other form of L2+ will have to eventually settle on the chain.  And very large transactions will settle on chain.

Current Subsidy = 6.25BTC = $250,000
Number of transactions in a full block ~ 2500 (This may improve, but lets assume it does not)
Fee per base chain transaction to equal current block reward = 0.0025BTC = $100

Will fees be able to support the above?  Of course they will!  And the system will drive the technology of wasting the ABSOLUTE LEAST amount of base chain space possible,  Profitable businesses that use the base layer will consolidate as many meaningful transactions into a single BTC movement as they can.  And if not?  They will pay the going rate anyway.

Those numbers up there?  Pretty solid! But let do some math with the butt pencil.

Let's say the lightning network starts doing 1 million transactions a second worldwide at a SINGLE SAT per transaction (basically the worst case scenario for note operators).  Every second a million Sats would be charged for transactions on the network.  That means that in 100 seconds a WHOLE BITCOIN worth of fees would have been payed to the nodes.  And in the space of the average bitcoin block (600sec/100sec) we would see SIX bitcoins of fees be paid.

Then those nodes will have to compete for block space to settle on the base chain.  So a certain percentage of that earned income will go DIRECTLY TO THE MINERS.  And conveniently our butt pencil math has us at pretty much the current block reward!  6BTC/block.  And if we only pass half of that to the miners then they will make basically the amount of bitcoin they will earn after the next halving in fees!

Like I said these are not real numbers.  And the lightning network will not be the only source for competition for space on the base chain.  But i can most certainly imagine a world in which the miners would never want to go back to a paltry 6.25BTC Subsidy.

But cAPSLOCK now only the banks can transact on the base chain!!!

Nope.  That is wrong.  ANYONE can.  Anyone willing to pay the fees.  Or anyone with a miner willing to include their transaction in a block regardless of fees.  But in a free market the payment has to come from SOMEWHERE.  And it has to be fees eventually.  But did you ever think that miners might include their own transactions for nothing?  Think about that for a moment.  You own a huge mining farm, AND you have a lot of LN payment processors.  Next block you find?  The first 400 transactions are all yours.

And those fees will have to go up by two methods.  Value, or quantity.  Or both.  Either we increase the number of transaction a block can hold, or we increase the amount each transaction pays.  Or both.  And that balance will also be determined by the huge sea of nodes that validate transactions.  As tech gets stronger and the blockchain can remain decentralized but add blockspace?  We might just see increases to the block size.  But if not we will certainly see increases to the fees.

The lightning network will not kill mining.  And it might just end up being the biggest customer.

[savetherainforest]

Just remembered that Factual Observations are not welcome

^ Look Juanitá. What a fool said long ago.

[shahzadafzal]

BTC and LN may have killed mining when blocks are:

 3.125 btc --------2024
 1.5625 btc ------ 2028
 0.78125 btc ----- 2032
 0.390625 btc----- 2036
 0.1953125 btc --- 2040
 0.09765625 btc -- 2044
 0.038828125 btc - 2048 7  ½ ings away. I will be 91 and likely not care too much

But I think Elon has enough wealth to hedge.  which is what he is doing.

Oh gawd......

Is it even possible that both you and Elon are goofy and delirious as fuck in the same synchronized direction to not understand bitcoin.. and have dumb ideas even though both of you should know better?  What a strange world it is.

Say it is not so.  Wake me up, at some point.

This guy is man of his words philipma1957.

I was looking for another discussion but found this one.

So after a 3.08% jump does mining look better?

   Some More reasons  mining can become profitable:

 super mining centers may be  a victim of terror , earthquake, fire, flooding.

Too many eggs in a basket run big losses.

We all should remember what happened when WD hdd plant flooded.

Or right now as I type Israel and Gaza are tossing missiles back and forth.

God forbid one drops into the sp30 plant.

Or the next Tsunami hits and floods something in china.

Concentration of large power sucking btc mines is asking for a plant to be destroyed one way or another.

some big mines here at this link are all in 1 spot. 

http://blockchain.info/pools

there is a solo address with 5%

another solo address with 4%

 a third solo address with 1%


this trend will lead to a crash and burn of a big plant  it is just the way things work.

To say BTC mining will never be profitable is silly. 

To say BTC mining may be hard to make a profit is better.

But if you are in position like right now (next jump is 10 or more days) and coins jump overnight to 1200usd  you make a ton of money in the next 10 days or so.

[philipma1957]

LN may kill BTC and mining in 7-8  more ½ ings

This statement always boggles me.

LN may indeed begin to pay it's nodes more than a miner will make from the SUBSIDY.  But LN nodes along with every other form of L2+ will have to eventually settle on the chain.  And very large transactions will settle on chain.

Current Subsidy = 6.25BTC = $250,000
Number of transactions in a full block ~ 2500 (This may improve, but lets assume it does not)
Fee per base chain transaction to equal current block reward = 0.0025BTC = $100

Will fees be able to support the above?  Of course they will!  And the system will drive the technology of wasting the ABSOLUTE LEAST amount of base chain space possible,  Profitable businesses that use the base layer will consolidate as many meaningful transactions into a single BTC movement as they can.  And if not?  They will pay the going rate anyway.

Those numbers up there?  Pretty solid! But let do some math with the butt pencil.

Let's say the lightning network starts doing 1 million transactions a second worldwide at a SINGLE SAT per transaction (basically the worst case scenario for note operators).  Every second a million Sats would be charged for transactions on the network.  That means that in 100 seconds a WHOLE BITCOIN worth of fees would have been payed to the nodes.  And in the space of the average bitcoin block (600sec/100sec) we would see SIX bitcoins of fees be paid.

Then those nodes will have to compete for block space to settle on the base chain.  So a certain percentage of that earned income will go DIRECTLY TO THE MINERS.  And conveniently our butt pencil math has us at pretty much the current block reward!  6BTC/block.  And if we only pass half of that to the miners then they will make basically the amount of bitcoin they will earn after the next halving in fees!

Like I said these are not real numbers.  And the lightning network will not be the only source for competition for space on the base chain.  But i can most certainly imagine a world in which the miners would never want to go back to a paltry 6.25BTC Subsidy.

But cAPSLOCK now only the banks can transact on the base chain!!!

Nope.  That is wrong.  ANYONE can.  Anyone willing to pay the fees.  Or anyone with a miner willing to include their transaction in a block regardless of fees.  But in a free market the payment has to come from SOMEWHERE.  And it has to be fees eventually.  But did you ever think that miners might include their own transactions for nothing?  Think about that for a moment.  You own a huge mining farm, AND you have a lot of LN payment processors.  Next block you find?  The first 400 transactions are all yours.

And those fees will have to go up by two methods.  Value, or quantity.  Or both.  Either we increase the number of transaction a block can hold, or we increase the amount each transaction pays.  Or both.  And that balance will also be determined by the huge sea of nodes that validate transactions.  As tech gets stronger and the blockchain can remain decentralized but add blockspace?  We might just see increases to the block size.  But if not we will certainly see increases to the fees.

The lightning network will not kill mining.  And it might just end up being the biggest customer.

As I said I will be 91 in 2048 and very likely not care if LN hurts or helps Btc

also I likely will not care if doge survives or crashes by 2048.

But Elon will very likely be in action in 2048. So my guess is he is hedging with those two coins for years two come.

But what do I Know According to JJG not much.

😀.  Hey maybe I make it to 2048 and I will get to talk about this thread and how I was a stupid fuck to think LN is bad for BTC.

[shahzadafzal]

But Elon will very likely be in action in 2048. So my guess is he is hedging with those two coins for years two come.

Quite possible… now I wonder if this guy was working on it all along, you can expect any thing from this dude.


https://twitter.com/redletterdave/status/1518585718012059648?s=21

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

😀.  Hey maybe I make it to 2048 and I will get to talk about this thread and how I was a stupid fuck to think LN is bad for BTC.

Here's to hoping you are.  I will also be past my expected expire date.  So let's hope we get to argue about who was right over a smooth glass of rum.

[HI-TEC99]

😀.  Hey maybe I make it to 2048 and I will get to talk about this thread and how I was a stupid fuck to think LN is bad for BTC.

Here's to hoping you are.  I will also be past my expected expire date.  So let's hope we get to argue about who was right over a smooth glass of rum.

This is the best rum I ever had.



Which one was your favorite?