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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26368531 times)
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ChartBuddy
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April 20, 2022, 05:04:44 PM


Explanation
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April 20, 2022, 05:39:07 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)



Happy 420, WO!
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April 20, 2022, 06:04:18 PM

It must be 420, I'm seeing double.
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April 20, 2022, 06:16:29 PM

This man here bought 18,600 BTCs at $63k.
Current Loss: -404,775,658.1 USD

https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3K5dmrkBMS8ZVgERMLwiw7PJuG8GWTbo8e
What you posted is a lie.

As others have already pointed out, "current loss" is irrelevant. Like OutOfMemory, a friend of mine bought at the very top of 2017 (at just under $20k). He was "currently losing" for the entire 3 years that followed. But he was smart and did not sell. Since December 2020 he is in "current gain" mode... In fact, there is no real gain or loss, since he has never sold a single sat.

Whoever bought the above 18,600 BTC is smart AF.

Yep and ImThour's statement is 100% incorrect at this moment in time. Since he said currently losing and he is not currently losing a dime.

Thanks for your feedback, I meant to say unrealized loss.
I have edited the post with the correct word usage.
I know he's going to HODL it and I mean he should. Smiley

Thank you

I appreciate it.

When and if BTC reaches 189k he will be up 2.3bill with an unrealized gain of course.

as 18 x 63 =     1.134 bill

and 18 x 189 = 3.402 bill

he can then sell 1.701 bill worth so that after taxes he would be close to the 1.134 bill he put in and also have 9000 btc worth 1.701 bill at no  cost.

Lets hope we can revisit post this before 2025 and find it to be true.



Please note slight edit due to a spell check error

Even though I agree with both your math (above), and I agree with the theoretical point that any investor is going to be able to take out all of his/her principle at some point in which BTC price triples (in your example) or goes up higher, and theoretically still be left with a cost basis of either zero or at least theoretically proclaim that s/he is just playing with house money because s/he has taken out the value of the principle that had been invested.

I personally do not have any problems with strategizing and planning to regularly aggressively withdraw various amounts of BTC as BTC is in profits - however, personally, to me, it continues to seem to be relatively short-sighted thinking that there is some kind of a preference to get back your principle and to get your cost basis in bitcoin down to zero - especially problematic when BTC prices may have merely appreciated 3x or so the amount of your investment - and it surely seems to me that within a longer timeframe bitcoin still remains the best of asset classes, and therefore, there should be little to no general motive to diversify out of it so rapidly - even if there are no guarantees of BTC price appreciation and even though we sometimes experience some pretty serious price corrections (relatively speaking). 

Maybe we can consider a more modest hypothetical of someone who might have bought $100k worth of bitcoin in late 2013, so s/he made some mistakes and bought near the top of the market at about $1k per BTC, so that person had gotten 100 BTC, and had to ride out the ups and downs of 2014 through 2016, so finally getting back into 2017, s/he is getting back into profits, and when BTC prices reach $3k in 2017, s/he decides to get back his her principle, so sells 33.3 BTC at  around $3k.  Therefore, s/he is left with 66.7 BTC rather than 100 BTC.  Yeah, we can see where this goes. 

I will admit that such above hypothetical person is way better off with 66.7 BTC than s/he would have been if s/he had not invested into BTC, but it also seems to me that figuring out a way to hold onto more of those 100 BTC (rather than getting so worked up about ensuring to get back the principle) would have likely been a better overall approach to managing the HODLings... and I am not even saying that individual circumstances might not dictate getting back the principle, but it also seems to me that if there is so much anxiety about getting back the principle, then a lot of mistakes had already been made in terms of both investing near the top and then spending about 3 years in the negative without taking further buying actions that would have likely lessened anxiety and been more practical overall in terms of managing the bitcoin investment. 

Of course, even if we are assuming a kind of lump sum investing near the top and a further failure to continue to invest in BTC for the next three years that BTC prices were lower than the first cost of investing, the more prudent approach still seems to be a kind of skimming of BTC along the way rather than some kind of a seeming urgency to get back principle, and a skimming approach may well have ended up reducing the BTC down to 80 or 90 BTC rather than 66.7 BTC.... and so it seems to me that each of us has to be careful in regards to getting too anxious about getting our principle back rather than attempting to better understand the investment that we are in... because even with Bitcoin prices largely bouncing between $30k and $69k in the past year-ish, there would have been a lot of opportunities, to merely sell a few bitcoins 2-3 BTC, and get the whole of the principle back - if there was such a desire to skim that much at any given time along the way and still not reduce the overall bitcoin holdings by very much).
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April 20, 2022, 06:53:32 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

"We will let Satan fuck us in the asshole till the end of the year, but not after that, so there! Lube up till then, boys!"

Germany to stop Russian oil imports by end of this year
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61164894

Quote
Mr Lindner said Russia was responsible for many of the economic and geopolitical issues hitting the world economy.

"Russia is responsible for all the geopolitical and economic risks" arising from the war - inflation, food crisis and a serious debt crisis in developing countries"

Lindner, another genius western finance minister. All the excuses are ready.
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April 20, 2022, 07:41:25 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

[...]

I doubt that anyone of us can push anyone towards how they engage in such early stages of BTC accumulation, even though DCA seems to be amongst the best of place holder approaches, and for sure lump sum investing and buying on dips can have some risks in terms of the possibility that the BTC price could go down before it goes up.  There are ways to balance all three approaches, but likely ONLY after some internal assessment of ones own individual circumstances which includes looking at cashflow, other investments, timeline, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, risk tolerance and time, skills and abilities to plan, strategize and to learn along the way, which also may well involve tweaking strategies along the way, too.

There's also an element of determining establishing initial BTC stake - and then once achieving such initial BTC stake - which also could take a year or more to establish... then to determine how to manage such stake.. or to perhaps adjust the stake upon reassessments.  An initial stake could also involve putting 1% to 25% of overall investment portfolio value into BTC, and for sure the amounts are quite discretionary including that each individual might well end up having quite a different approach from another individual based on some minor differences in the individual circumstances (as I have already mentioned above).

Capisce?

I cannot stress enough the benefit and importance of DCA, especially for Bitcoin newbies. Buying and HoDLing Bitcoin (regardless of method) is a winning strategy in the long term, but there are ways to maximize the return of your investment. Enter DCA. What DCA does is that it takes the randomness of volatility out of the equation by effectively averaging it out between many small purchases over a given period of time, whereas lump sum investing is like throwing a dice and hoping for a 6, but might instead end up with a 1. Given a sufficient number of small purchases temporally spread out, DCA achieves an average dice result of a 3 or a 4, so it effectively protects you from buying at the top.

Of course, when it comes to Bitcoin, even a 1 is a win long-term, but why not aim for a 3 or a 4? DCA can do that. Just add time.

Great advice.  Simple and bulletproof.  We will be called lucky by our children's children.  And we are.

But one other little tip.  I like to buy a little extra on those "blood running in the streets" days.  It has been clearly a winning strategy for me.  Maybe I have just been lucky.  Bitcoin (and poker) has cultivated a fairly high pain tolerance... so "blood in the streets" for me is usually a BAD day, and either close to a bottom, or at least near the base of a good dip, even when more are to come.
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April 20, 2022, 07:44:44 PM

"We will let Satan fuck us in the asshole till the end of the year, but not after that, so there! Lube up till then, boys!"

Germany to stop Russian oil imports by end of this year
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61164894

Quote
Mr Lindner said Russia was responsible for many of the economic and geopolitical issues hitting the world economy.

"Russia is responsible for all the geopolitical and economic risks" arising from the war - inflation, food crisis and a serious debt crisis in developing countries"

Lindner, another genius western finance minister. All the excuses are ready.

Why do i have to compulsively think about "Ponzi" after reading your post?
The last one is the one to blame.

To be clear: I condemn any offensive move by Putin/Russia. I explicitly write that to better be safe than sorry.
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April 20, 2022, 07:49:36 PM


... one other little tip.  I like to buy a little extra on those "blood running in the streets" days.  It has been clearly a winning strategy for me.  Maybe I have just been lucky.  Bitcoin (and poker) has cultivated a fairly high pain tolerance... so "blood in the streets" for me is usually a BAD day, and either close to a bottom, or at least near the base of a good dip, even when more are to come.

How do you know it's a "blood running in the streets" day?

Is that when there's a candle with an inverted zippidity doo with a kangaroo leg?

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April 20, 2022, 07:50:34 PM

Tesla earnings in 15 minutes after the close, EPS expected at 2.27, Focus will be on any bitcoin buys/sells
I think he bought some BTC to compete with Saylor.

https://twitter.com/tier10k/status/1516866060930228230
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April 20, 2022, 08:01:43 PM

[edited out]

NO !! to "Capisce?" ... !! I had a bit till the brink while reading that techno babble and thought you were gonna start talking about reverse lending and how the importance of the federal banks sustain the integrity and the blood sucking stock markets is a hallmark to humanitarian goals in sustainability.  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes

You seem to have a lot of difficulties in even attempting to understand anything, no?

Personally, I don't really understand what relevance there is regarding what you thought that I was going to say versus what I actually ended up saying.

\
Are you f^cking kidding me?? Stop spewing negativity ! There is no risk in BTCiTcoin. I bought long ago and now I'm over 200x . And for those that buy small amounts, who gives a sh!t about those people?! .. Your 'techno babble' caters to someone that might actually 'invest' and would have a more substantial manifestation in that said investment.

It's not easy to attempt to sort through what point that you might be trying to make. Of course, there are differences between when a person might have gotten into bitcoin, and also how s/he would have managed his/her bitcoin investment along the way.

You are likely full of a whole hell of a lot of shit, when you assert that you are up 200x in your bitcoin investment, especially given your historical dumbass shitcoin and bear talk posts that were supposedly somehow connected with bitcoin.

I am not going to give my actual numbers because I doubt that they are necessary in order to make the point that in the past year or so, I have been suggesting that any of us who have been in bitcoin for nearly two bitcoin cycles can well proclaim that we have around a $1k per bitcoin cost in order to provide some kind of round about way of reasonably calculating profits - or summarizing recent bitcoin performance including some possible later enlightenments about bitcoin and/or that a lot of mistakes may have been made along the way.... so that gives reasonably around 40x profit levels as I type this post, and an historical goofball like you is not going to come off as very believable if you are going to be proclaiming  profit levels that way exceed various reasonable probabilities benchmark numbers... so you can fuck off with your implications that you happen to be way smarter than the rest of us... or your inabilities to control your own levels of exaggeration.

SO F^CK YOU Juanita and your toxicity. Cheesy Cheesy
.... I WANT YOU TO SHOUT FROM ROOF TOPS : THERE IS NO RISK IN BTCiTCOIN !! !! !! !

Even though you are purposefully throwing out nonsense talking points, there is some validity in any assertion that bitcoin likely remains amongst the best of asymmetric bets to the upside that we currently have, but even having a very good bet in front of us, like bitcoin, does not come with a variety of risks whether it is risk of the asset itself or various risks that involve the way that any person might manage timelines in terms of managing personal cashflows in respect to ongoing bitcoin volatility.  One of the most inevitable dynamics of bitcoin happens to be its likely ongoing volatility, including that we are likely to continue to have ongoing battles in terms of bitcoin's role in society - especially since bitcoin seems to be part of an escape vehicle that is likely ongoingly continuing to facilitate the largest transfer of wealth in history.  I doubt that any of us can expect such a process of wealth transfer to go smoothly and potentially even to have a decent number of casualties and injustices along the way..   There's likely no risk-free way to completely play this game of taking a stake in bitcoin and figuring out how much to hold and how much to keep on exchanges versus private wallets versus some other ways of trying to balance one's own involvement in trying to benefit from such ongoing wealth transfer without potentially becoming a casualty or suffering a lot of injustices along the way.

Stop spewing excuses for deterring people from investing. Excuses like "cashflow", "other investments", "timeline", "individual circumstances".

Fuck off.  You dumb twat.  I have been telling people to get the fuck off zero since I started investing in bitcoin in late 2013.  Of course, I was relatively timid in my first 6-8 months investing in bitcoin because I was still busy figuring out my own investment situation and trying to also understand bitcoin price dynamics within various macro-happenings and the various ongoing talking points from those days... so maybe my recommending folks to get the fuck off zero did not start to come until mid-to-late 2014 - and surely over the years, I have become somewhat more assertive and confident in making those kinds of statements - while also recognizing that people have to choose for themselves regarding whether to invest into bitcoin, when and how much, even if they make wrong choices.

THIS IS SPARTA!

THIS IS BTCiTCOIN!

You buy and you share it with your family if you DIE !! ! ! ! !


BTCiTcoin is not a greedy thing for greedy people. BTCiTcoin is communism and sharing.

Is that what you tell people?  How long have you been doing that?  I take your representations with a big ass grain of salt. One day you are bullish about bitcoin and the next day you are pumping some shitcoin.  You hardly have any ability to focus, and even if you might have some kind of focus, you have very few, if any, skills to make clear what you are saying and why you are saying it.

Those that joined the club out of greed, they are in for the wrong reasons. Karma will come and it will come with bells & whistles.  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes

You really seem to not know what you are talking about, even when you might end up being correct in the conclusion that bitcoin is a good investment.

Ultimately, if you had not heard, bitcoin has a lot of built in presumptions that people will act in their own interests and in a greedy way, and also bitcoin has a lot of  built in assumptions that people are going to try to cheat.  So in the end, bitcoin does not require some kind of a purgening of greed from society, as you seem to be suggesting in your lame ass superficial presentation of what you believe to be happening in bitcoinlandia.

There is no risk in BTCiTcoin if you are not greedy and have no greedy intentions.  Grin  Grin .. You are safe.  Cheesy  Cheesy

"Capisce?"

I understand that you are talking gobble-dee-gook.  So there is that.

(and I love kimchi)  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes

Get to work on that scratch and sniff then.  Maybe you will have at least ended up making a contribution to society rather than merely aimlessly wandering in this here thread with confusing and largely nonsense presentations.

I doubt this too -> $120000 by 2023 confirmed 🍄💊

Even on December 6, 2021, when we had several more months to potentially achieve $120k or higher by 2023 and it seems that the market (and yours truly) was more optimistic at that time, I still had ONLY placed slightly less than 44.5% odds of $120k or greater by 2023, so from my point of view those kinds of supposedly bullish prices had never been majority assertions, even from the more bullish of WO regulars (if I might allow my lil selfie to be included in such groupening).

Surely now, the odds might even be below 40% - and so many times, I am tempted to revise my assignment of percentages - even though I still consider my December 6 framework to largely still be serving as a way to frame the ideas, even if some of the actual assignments of numbers will surely have to be tweaked in order to both incorporate the passage of time and subsequent movement of BTC prices since December 6th.
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April 20, 2022, 08:06:11 PM


Explanation
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April 20, 2022, 08:06:41 PM




Wars suck.

All of them.

They are pretty much always failures by default.

Even especially the "freedom" wars of the US and allies, least after WW2.

Even WW2 sucked...

Wars suck..


SLUT

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April 20, 2022, 08:07:18 PM

TESLA didn't even bought a single BTC nor they sold.

https://twitter.com/tier10k/status/1516870628451758080
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April 20, 2022, 08:13:11 PM


Cool. I've been thinking about this recently and long-term CGT means it's probably not a good idea to cash everything out in one go.
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April 20, 2022, 08:16:29 PM

Tesla earnings in 15 minutes after the close, EPS expected at 2.27, Focus will be on any bitcoin buys/sells
I think he bought some BTC to compete with Saylor.

https://twitter.com/tier10k/status/1516866060930228230

Currently busy wrangling with the Twitter/freedom of speech thingy....

Aside from the prince, the top shareholders/good guys,  at vanguard, morgan stanley and blackrock, are busy "defending" twitter from a "evol billionaire"... lol, and it is nothing to do with the price offered... or the "interests" of shareholders... so I wonder what it could be? maybe they are defending free speech, mega lol.

 


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April 20, 2022, 08:16:48 PM

Doesn't surprise me Netflix share price is collapsing.
Fucking shite "entertainment" on there for the last few years.

 Roll Eyes


Hey, our carefully selected, lovingly crafted Netflix made shows seem to be well loved. Let's just turn the spigot and let sewage flow.
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April 20, 2022, 08:18:57 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1), Toxic2040 (1)


Did something happen to ChartBuddy?

It looks MUCH better to my eyes, or my eyesight got better...

Reduced the scaling so the walls are twice as big now (higher price means fewer bitcoins being traded - who knew?). Also made the Y-axis stuff work again (similar issue). Need some auto-scaling in there maybe but I also want continuity between charts.
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April 20, 2022, 08:19:23 PM


Cool. I've been thinking about this recently and long-term CGT means it's probably not a good idea to cash everything out in one go.

Milo is one of the companies I didn't mention the other day, that are keenly interested in the tokenisation of real estate..... makes their life , easier.  Plus just imagine the liquidity , globally that can be released by the tokenisation and fractionalisation of real estate which is by definition, one of the most illiquid assets going.


Happy and interesting times incoming.
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Did something happen to ChartBuddy?

It looks MUCH better to my eyes, or my eyesight got better...

  Y-axis stuff work again (similar issue).

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April 20, 2022, 08:22:47 PM

Doesn't surprise me Netflix share price is collapsing.
Fucking shite "entertainment" on there for the last few years.

 Roll Eyes


Hey, our carefully selected, lovingly crafted Netflix made shows seem to be well loved. Let's just turn the spigot and let sewage flow.

I signed up again, so I could watch Ozarks...

Pretty quickly ran out o'shit to watch though..
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