Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cygan]

this has nothing to do with Bitcoin, but this is one of the coolest videos i have seen lately 🦅🪂

https://twitter.com/denverbitcoin/status/1543670996732977152

[Arriemoller]

Happy haiku sunday everybody, I'm not doing one today, have no imagination this evening.

[Torque]

Many years ago, my doctor told me my cholesterol was slightly elevated (I don't remember the exact numbers but it was 0.1 over the top number in the range) and signed me up for a course on how to eat.  When I saw the list of foods I should avoid, I told the nurse I would rather be euthanized than to live without coffee, eggs, cheese, cream, butter and meat.  Back then, euthanasia wasn't an option so I took the sheet home and never looked at it again figuring I would die from the effects of cholesterol eventually.

The biggest irony is that it is a complete myth (lie) that high cholesterol is caused by any of those things on that list.

The myth is perpetuated by garbage studies, paid for by the corrupt health associations, that don't do proper controls. The survey subjects that they find that have high cholesterol primarily eat diets high in sugars, carbohydrates, processed foods, and processed seed oils... and also so happen to eat eggs, cheese, cream, butter, and meat. So those studies falsely associate the latter foods with high cholesterol. (As a side note, these high cholesterol subjects also show highly elevated levels of triglycerides, which are typically associated with chronic consumption of large amounts of alcohol as well. Interesting, right?)

They NEVER do a controlled study on people who have diets primary of the latter (meat, cheese, diary, eggs, butter) but not the former (sugar, carbs, processed foods, seed oils). This is by design. They actually WANT that misassociation so they can then sell it to the public.

You want to reduce your cholesterol? Stop eating sugar, carbs, and junk that's not real food. Keep the meat, cheese, whole milk, eggs, butter. Eat clean, healthy vegetables. Cook with ghee, real butter, and/or a high quality olive oil. Stay away from seed oils.

I would also say, stay away from alcohol. It's basically high-test liquid sugar but with worse effects on the endocrine system, internal organs, liver, etc. But I know very few will do that, lol.

OT: As a follow-up to this conversation, check out this study:

Study: Low fat diets reduce men’s testosterone levels
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210409/Study-Low-fat-diets-reduce-mene28099s-testosterone-levels.aspx

[JayJuanGee]

There is no excuse for spreading wrong information and urban legends.

No, I am not trying to be persnickety.  The Bitcoinland urban legend of “blocks take about 10 minutes” is Gambler’s Fallacy:  A practical expectation that you are “due” for a win based on a statistical average.

[...]

Technically.....   D_W says


Fuck technically!!!

You got it backwards.  You are hypertechnically (and incorrectly) seizing onto a number that has theoretical significance, but no practical significance to the ordinary user.  The 10-minute average is a practically useless number to most people.  It does not matter to everyday usage of Bitcoin.

It matters to what some people say in regards to when the next block will be, including yours truly.  I don't look at the blocks, but I already sufficiently know the concept in order to clearly, adequately and meaningfully communicate it... by saying the next block is coming in 10 minutes..

Yeah.. maybe it matters for a miner.. or for someone in a hurry transacting a $1 million transaction.. but most people only need to know that bitcoin workie workie works.. and it continues to work... and workie workie, too

Bitcoin works.  People are confused by the misinformation of “about 10 minutes”.  It makes them upset.

I have not met anyone who is confused about that in any way that is in need of addressing beyond telling them that the next block is coming in about 10 minutes, and proclaiming "isn't that amazing?"

 It makes them wonder if Bitcoin is broken, when they get hit with occasional hour-long confirmation times.  Then, they go to faux-decentralized, lower-security shitcoins that promise “instant finality blah blah blah”.

If they are that dumb, then let them go and get reckt.. they seem to be disinclined towards the overall message that bitcoin blocks come every 10 minutes... except sometimes they don't.

Moreover, you are wrong about the $1 million transaction.  Anyone transacting for $1 million in value probably wants more than one confirmation.  The more confirmations you wait, the more relevant the 10-minute average becomes.  If you wait six confirmations, it will more likely take closer to 60 minutes than a single confirmation is to take “about 10 minutes”.  That is how averages work!  It is why Bitcoin’s targeting algorithm works:  It targets an average over many blocks.

You are saying the same thing that I was implying, so how would I have been wrong?

I was saying that someone engaging in a large transaction is going to be more concerned about how long it takes for a block.. whether he is waiting for 1, 3, 6 or some other number of confirmations.  You are saying the same thing. So if I am wrong, then you are too.. hahahaha

Please open up your desktop calculator, play around with the CDF and PDF of the exponential distribution with λ = 0.1 (or λ = 1/600 if you are measuring in seconds), and get a feel for the extraordinary shape of a curve that defies human intuition.  You will soon be appalled at just how useless the 10-minute average is for ordinary, everyday usage.

You will probably need to explain more about how that matters to the point that I was making about every block coming in 10 minutes whether time has passed from the last block or not.. .. and so yeah, if the guy transacting $1 million has to wait a day or two before handing over the keys to the yacht.. then so be it.  

Technical misinformation should always be corrected.  The notion that “a block takes about 10 minutes” is an urban legend.  It is counterproductive.  It is confusing to users in everyday real-life practical scenarios.  Please stop spreading it.

I am not going to stop.  I find it to be useful, as I already explained something like 10 times already.  I find your assertion that it is confusing and counterproductive to be letting technicalities get in the way of clarity.. so you better stop it right now..  

When is the next block you ask me?  About 10 minutes give or take.  That's my story and I am sticking to it.  I hope none of you were confused by my answer...and if you were, then


you are





dddddddduuuuuuuuummmmmmmbbbbbbb








Real dumb... .









for reals.

Next-generation futuristic coins:  When a certain altcoin recently crashed, I bought a few around $8.  Only a token amount (so to speak), as a political act in defiance of Janet Yellen.  I was pretty much out of money, anyway.

When the knife suddenly fell to $0.000003, I DCAed down.  How’s that for “DCA in downtrend on steroids”?

I have been hesitating about whether I should politely correct you are come out a bit stronger and call you names, like dumbass.

I will start out by attempting to be polite, and just remind you and everyone else that DCA works best with assets whose price is going to go up forever.. in other words, there is a need for some kind of Fundamental assessment in regards to the price going up forever... which is the case in bitcoin (and is not guaranteed but has decently strong chances).

DCA'ing into shitcoins is just like gambling, and it can work only if there is a short-term pump that is sufficiently good enough to bring you higher in your sales price than your average cost for the shitcoin.  Of course, you can make money by DCA'ing into shitcoins just like you can make money by gambling.. but I do not recommend gambling as an investment technique/strategy.. especially when there is such great opportunities to create and to follow sound and prudent strategies and to get richie at the same time with bitcoin staring all of us in the face.

Hello?  Isn’t buying the dip to DCA down supposed to be savvy investing?

Nope.  It's a way to get reckt as fuck because you fail refuse to recognize that it ONLY works with assets that go up in price.. as I already explained earlier in this response (above).

How can you live without the excitement?

There is already enough excitement and volatility in bitcoin.. no need to be drama queen over it and from my perspective, no need to desire more excitement than we already have.

 Oh my gawd, JayJuanGee is expecting sub-$1k prices!  Panic!  SELL!  mindrust!)

Not expecting.

Waiting for.

 

IMO, die-hard nocoiners are the most patient investors in the world:  They are waiting for $0.  Waiting, waiting...  It takes an awful lot of patience.

If you are only waiting for sub-$1k prices, it sounds like you are impatient to buy the dip!

I'm not impatient, and surely I would prefer no further dip and some kind of a reversal in the BTC price to start to head towards the UPpity place that we are more likely going and had been previously scheduled to go.. resume UPpity.. I have no problem with that...  

At the same time, the reality of the matter is that we might go down instead of up, but we also might go sideways instead of either UP or down before deciding which direction to go.

I have made some adjustments too, and I have some longer term adjustments that I am working on as well.. so there are a variety of scenarios that could end up playing out. and does not hurt to have some strength in terms of being able to tolerate additional variance that might well end up continuing to go beyond expectations in either price direction.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[jojo69]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[empowering]

I have had the thought over the years, since Steve Jobs died.....that on some important levels basically Apple=Steve Jobs..... and that they would struggle to innovate and take and maintain market share in the same way that they did, yes, I realise that there is was is MUCH more to Apple than just Steve Jobs, and that as an entity they still have plenty of resources to continue, and thrive even, I just think it is a different beast altogether now sans Jobs.


Not getting into the pros- and cons, of Job's approaches, n Apples walled gardens n all.. nor anything else re OS, or his business approach...personal life etc.... and I am not a "fan boy" for Jobs, though, I do take my hat off to him in some ways, the guy had a good eye, you have to give him that...


....but it is the way he died I cannot believe....you know he shunned treatment, at stages early enough that it really could have made a difference for him, because he calculated wrongly on some other alternative treatments. Not just once either, he had several points where he could have changed his mind before it was too late.... Although, it is a pretty nasty cancer he died from. Pretty fucked story...   his ego, in this instance seemed to work against him... the pictures of the guy, near the end


(ps, I almost am OT here compared to your original post, and I acknowledge your point..... and lets face it Apple did kill it)


(pps,     yes and of course Woz, was, important too....Jobs jus was in a different way)

[empowering]

https://youtu.be/E3s-qZsjK8I

"big! little! big! little! GET ON IT!!!!"

[Gambit2s]

Update here,

Looking like one more Dip is on the way Good news for the Limit Orders,

Now we are entering a new majour Support Level $16.5K.
LETS see how far it Goes.

Wow almost immediately after you posted this bitcoin went up to 19700.

Keep em coming

[cAPSLOCK]

Many years ago, my doctor told me my cholesterol was slightly elevated (I don't remember the exact numbers but it was 0.1 over the top number in the range) and signed me up for a course on how to eat.  When I saw the list of foods I should avoid, I told the nurse I would rather be euthanized than to live without coffee, eggs, cheese, cream, butter and meat.  Back then, euthanasia wasn't an option so I took the sheet home and never looked at it again figuring I would die from the effects of cholesterol eventually.

The biggest irony is that it is a complete myth (lie) that high cholesterol is caused by any of those things on that list.

The myth is perpetuated by garbage studies, paid for by the corrupt health associations, that don't do proper controls. The survey subjects that they find that have high cholesterol primarily eat diets high in sugars, carbohydrates, processed foods, and processed seed oils... and also so happen to eat eggs, cheese, cream, butter, and meat. So those studies falsely associate the latter foods with high cholesterol. (As a side note, these high cholesterol subjects also show highly elevated levels of triglycerides, which are typically associated with chronic consumption of large amounts of alcohol as well. Interesting, right?)

They NEVER do a controlled study on people who have diets primary of the latter (meat, cheese, diary, eggs, butter) but not the former (sugar, carbs, processed foods, seed oils). This is by design. They actually WANT that misassociation so they can then sell it to the public.

You want to reduce your cholesterol? Stop eating sugar, carbs, and junk that's not real food. Keep the meat, cheese, whole milk, eggs, butter. Eat clean, healthy vegetables. Cook with ghee, real butter, and/or a high quality olive oil. Stay away from seed oils.

I would also say, stay away from alcohol. It's basically high-test liquid sugar but with worse effects on the endocrine system, internal organs, liver, etc. But I know very few will do that, lol.

OT: As a follow-up to this conversation, check out this study:

Study: Low fat diets reduce men’s testosterone levels
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210409/Study-Low-fat-diets-reduce-mene28099s-testosterone-levels.aspx

Totally makes sense since testosterone is made (in part) from cholesterol.  I eat keto so no problems there.  Any low t I have is genetics and age.

[JimboToronto]

Good day Bitcoinland.
One nine two nine six dollars
(Bitcoinaverage).

So here we are:
Another Haiku Sunday.
It's time to relax.

Bird's in the oven,
Just made some margaritas
For my wife and me.
____

Still buying the house,
Found alternate financing...
No more Bitcoins sold!

Small reverse mortgage
Fully open with low rates
From private lender.

I can wait it out:
No payments necessary
And no banks involved.

The best part is that
I can use rent revenues
To buy more Bitcoin.

The next ATH
I can pay off the mortgage
With no penalty.

All I can say is:
Life is good. Thank you Bitcoin.
Life is very good.

[Hamza2424]

Wow almost immediately after you posted this bitcoin went up to 19700.

Keep em coming

Well By the way that was an indication and you better know indication might be wrong or True my work is until what i think to let you know.
Point 2 then BTC agin fell down to 19.2 so still don't be hopeful

For the months market I'm Bullish always as all WO members are and i got something for you buddy.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[gallianooo]

lower bottom or not, I think of a major bounce in the next 2-8 wk, maybe even into September.
SP500 to 4300 (at least)
btc to above 28-29K (at least)
next couple of days are less clear, though.

This bear market is different and even more unpredictable than usual. For the moment it looks like any 5% increase is followed by a 15% drop. Nothing has changed since the last ATH. And this can only be explained by a massive BTCictoin spending as collateral to avoid liquidation and insolvency. Nobody knows if in the next days another fund will explode with 10K+ BTCitcoins on fire sell. For that reason most of the investors either lost interest or wait at the sidelines for the dust to settle. The so called institutional investors are hard to attract and even harder to keep when the price is 50%+ below their purchase price. Even if there is a disbelief rally to 35K+ in the coming weeks, the remaining institutional investors will sell at break even and some of the hodlers will sell something, knowing that a revisit to 20K is to be expected. If the pattern of the previous cycles is kept, the average price will gradually increase to 3x from the bottom until the end of 2024. Examples: 10K->30K, 15K->45K, 17.5->52.5K. And if there is a new ATH in 2025, it might be around only 2x from the last, i.e. 140K. This is what I think, but I might be awfully wrong in both directions, like sub 10K bottom and no new ATH in 2025, or the other extreme - a new ATH beyond 300K.

Based of the previous cycle, the increase from the bottom was 3K end of 2018 till 14K in june 2019, so almost x5 not x3.

[Biodom]

lower bottom or not, I think of a major bounce in the next 2-8 wk, maybe even into September.
SP500 to 4300 (at least)
btc to above 28-29K (at least)
next couple of days are less clear, though.

This bear market is different and even more unpredictable than usual. For the moment it looks like any 5% increase is followed by a 15% drop. Nothing has changed since the last ATH. And this can only be explained by a massive BTCictoin spending as collateral to avoid liquidation and insolvency. Nobody knows if in the next days another fund will explode with 10K+ BTCitcoins on fire sell. For that reason most of the investors either lost interest or wait at the sidelines for the dust to settle. The so called institutional investors are hard to attract and even harder to keep when the price is 50%+ below their purchase price. Even if there is a disbelief rally to 35K+ in the coming weeks, the remaining institutional investors will sell at break even and some of the hodlers will sell something, knowing that a revisit to 20K is to be expected. If the pattern of the previous cycles is kept, the average price will gradually increase to 3x from the bottom until the end of 2024. Examples: 10K->30K, 15K->45K, 17.5->52.5K. And if there is a new ATH in 2025, it might be around only 2x from the last, i.e. 140K. This is what I think, but I might be awfully wrong in both directions, like sub 10K bottom and no new ATH in 2025, or the other extreme - a new ATH beyond 300K.

Based of the previous cycle, the increase from the bottom was 3K end of 2018 till 14K in june 2019, so almost x5 not x3.

yes, but (14/3.1)X 17.6 would be 79.5, an ATH, while in 2019 we went to roughly 70% of prior ATH.
70% of 67566 is 47.3K, a very possible number that already figured multiple times in prior discussions.
I just don't want to talk about it as a high probability target mid term. If we get there, it would be awesome, sure.

[vapourminer]

If the pattern of the previous cycles is kept, the average price will gradually increase to 3x from the bottom until the end of 2024. Examples: 10K->30K, 15K->45K, 17.5->52.5K. And if there is a new ATH in 2025, it might be around only 2x from the last, i.e. 140K. This is what I think, but I might be awfully wrong in both directions, like sub 10K bottom and no new ATH in 2025, or the other extreme - a new ATH beyond 300K.

Based of the previous cycle, the increase from the bottom was 3K end of 2018 till 14K in june 2019, so almost x5 not x3.

yes, but (14/3.1)X 17.6 would be 79.5, an ATH, while in 2019 we went to roughly 70% of prior ATH.
70% of 67566 is 47.3K, a very possible number that already figured multiple times in prior discussions.

math and numbers and math and numbers and ... bleh!

all i wanna know is: are we rich yet?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Ludmilla_rose1995]

Wow almost immediately after you posted this bitcoin went up to 19700.

Keep em coming

Well By the way that was an indication and you better know indication might be wrong or True my work is until what i think to let you know.
Point 2 then BTC agin fell down to 19.2 so still don't be hopeful

For the months market I'm Bullish always as all WO members are and i got something for you buddy.

One thing I really love about bitcoin is that it always surprises me. the bitcoin price may stay at the current price for the next few months but the bear market will definitely change to bull