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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26460563 times)
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JayJuanGee
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June 29, 2022, 10:56:38 PM

[One sentence cherry-picked by Jay out of a longer post, in which death_wish persuasively argued based on a gold-market analogy that Bitcoin is fine.]

I'll start out by stating that my proposition is: Fuck gold.  It's a shitcoin.  Stop talking about shitcoins here.

I question why you are being deliberately obtuse—why for the past week or two, you have consistently (and clumsily) tried to shoot down my gold-analogy arguments that Bitcoin is fine.

Have I ever claimed to understand what you write in terms of the potentially fine nuances that might exist.

No fucking way José!!!!

In udder wurds, from your post, whether right or wrong, I just got the gist that you were saying too many nice-ily lil ting-a-lies about about dee ting-a-lie that is referred to as shitcoin gold... so why not error on the side of saying:  "fuck gold?"  Seems like a good starting stance.. to shoot first, and ask questions later, if anybody's got time for the asking questions later part?

1,000x better than gold

That’s just moonboy talk.  You obviously do not understand what gold is, or why anyone would buy it.

I could say the same thing back to you.

You should recognize by now that my own long-term projections about BTC's ultimate valuations have hardly anything to do with my own material comfort levels..

I am talking about actual asset valuations as they relate to bitcoin fundamentals/expected values as compared to other world assets, such as gold and not my book you presumptuous lack of imagination dumb twat (sometimes there is a need to exaggerate a tiny wee bit to make the point potentially sink-in).

One easy back of the envelope calculation is to assess all of the monetized assets/currencies in the world and come to a calculation that is close to $1 quadrillion of value (sure Greg Foss came up with $900 Trillion but for practical purposes $1 Quadrillion is close enough especially if we may reasonably recognize and appreciate that new technologies have ways of bringing extra value to the world that had previously been unrecognized or unattainable.. so for example, the refrigerator brought new value to the world that was not previously attainable prior to that refrigerator allowing movement and storage of foods and freed up capital/labor too - same with electricity.. etc. etc. etc.  Bitcoin will continue to do the same kind of increasing the possibilities of value, way beyond what it has already accomplished in its own less than 14 years  of existence).

Continuing with the back of the envelope calculations, if the current world monetized value is $1 quadrillion (meaning all current addressable value for BTC), and gold has a current value/price of approximately $10 trillion, then if bitcoin largely continues to cause the gravitation of other monetized value into it, then the overall calculation is that bitcoin has a addressable market value that it could attain that is 1,000x greater than what gold currently has, and part of the rationale remains Gresham principles including that bitcoin is the strongest of . I did not provide a timeline on such attainment, and surely I consider the first matching (flippening) of gold and even getting 10x to 50x higher than gold will not be that difficult to achieve in terms of time and even battles (volatility) along the way (maybe within this upcoming cycle or the one thereafter, which would be 4-8 years-ish), but the subsequent 50x to 1000x could take 30 to 200 years to attain... So in that regard, it is decently  likely that  it could take 2200 years for the 1,000x to be reflected in the BTC/Gold price.

Gold is not for poor people who want to get rich:  Gold is for rich people who want to stay that way, in any conceivable circumstance whatsoever.

Get the fuck out of here with that nonsense.  Gold has issues, and we are here to talk about bitcoin.. if you want to put some of your investment/value/time & energies in gold do it.. no problem.. no need to pump that crap here (or to even talk about it or go into  any details about it).. it's off topic..


I would not even call it a hedge:  It is absolutely the most conservative, most reliable ultra-long-term store of value.  Any contradiction of that would be so dumb as to fall beneath reply:  Gold antedated this current civilization, it will survive this civilization’s inevitable death, and meanwhile, it is an important part of intergenerational wealth-building.  A long-term holding of gold is not for those who think only on 4–10 year timelines, like adolescents or like politicians looking to the next election cycle.

Fuck off .. you are off topic... and even misstating the tradeoffs.  You cannot even figure out a way to build up and maintain a bitcoin stash and you are pumping some other investments?


I would not recommend gold to anyone a portfolio of less than $100k–$250k at the minimum—notionally right now, let’s say 10 BTC.  Maybe $1 million/50 BTC—as the minimum portfolio size, not “rich”.  Less than that, and you are undercapitalized for acquiring and accumulating nontrivial amounts of gold.  Maybe buy a few 1 oz. coins or bars, for the emotional value of holding some gold in your hands; that is not a meaningful investment in gold.

I am having trouble appreciating how that is relevant.  focus on bitcoin first.. and if you get enough bitcoin then possible figure out some other assets.  If you already own other assets, then you have to get a stake in bitcoin..   We do not need to get into details about other assets.. not relevant.  Especially in this thread.

What really irritates me is the stupid anti-gold memes I sometimes see in WO/crypto-Twitter, which tend to be culturally equal on this particular point.

Yeah.. it's off topic fuck off.

We have no burden to take any kind of stance about gold here at all.  And, to not want to get into details about gold does not even necessarily lead to the conclusion that any of us is anti-gold.

You are trying to proclaim that you got into details about gold in your prior response in order to show how much you love bitcoin, and to proclaim that you are not wanting to talk about or pump gold, and here you are pumping gold..

Similar thing you did with your other nonsense talking points about being anti-POS and anti_margin trading and anti-bitcoin as a stock thinking and pro-privacy to be built into bitcoin and anti-200 week moving average (but you are not sure so you waffle) and pro-dev tax (or at least coercing/shaming OGs into donating to bitcoin core) and the various other random "lookie at me" topics you bring up in order to derail us from talking about bitcoin while you are proclaiming to be the greatest lover of bitcoin and the one who really knows how to love bitcoin better than any other member in these here parts because you also know about shitcoins and you are the "right kind" of bitcoin maxi.. not the toxic kind that we find in places like the WO and twitter blah blah blah..

in other words:  you have just discovered the WO thread, and you are here to fix it...

By the way.. fuck off also with your juxtaposing of WO and "crypto" twitter, too.

Seems to me that you are continuously bringing up various talking point topics in order to continuously bring up ways that bitcoin is deficient or that it needs some other things that need to be fixed or considered.

What is your allocation to gold?
None of your business.  Except that I have already leaked enough about my finances for a good guess that I am currently a nocoiner as to gold.  Zero.  Before I just wrecked myself, my long-term investment plans had gold on the roadmap.  Now that I am re-restarting, all plans are up in the air except rebuilding BTC.  I will not even think about how to re-plan such things, until after I have >1 BTC again.

Actually.. finally you bring up a good point and even discussed it in a reasonable way.  

For sure it makes little to no sense to even think about diversification of assets (or investment portfolio - which also could be considered as dilution of investment when diversification is done too early) until getting a sufficiently decently sized investment portfolio, and of course, each of us is free to choose at what point in the size of investment portfolio we believe it is practical/prudent/reasonable and even right for our  own situation to start to diversify into various other kinds of assets... and if your whole investment portfolio has been largely depleted then starting out by focusing on bitcoin seems potentially prudent to me.. but "prudence determinations" are also individual choices too in terms of starting out and building and investment portfolio and maybe it does not even matter too much even though it is likely better to pick something that has good chances of at least holding its value.. and having good chances of appreciating would be even better but not really a condition precedent when in those earllest of stages of building up the investment portfolio size.  

In the very earliest of stages of building an investment portfolio, it may not even be a bad thing to be nearly 100% cash.. and then build up the cash level until you reach a certain amount that you believe to be a good place to start to deploy some of that cash into other  areas (and to put to work.. because we know cash is ongoingly going down in value, but you can still build it up while investigating into how to possibly deploy it. .and for sure, here we are talking about bitcoin strategies not other assets or shitcoins)

So, even building up to have $20k or $40k or some reasonable number and then at that point start to invest in other things such as bitcoin... but surely there is no problem to start out with a couple of things such as cash and bitcoin and to build up with a couple of things and then expand as you go to the extent that expanding makes sense or causes better comfort.

I always suggest that there needs to be some plans in place regarding emergency funds, such as 3-6 months to start - but of course, projecting out your cashflow for 24 months can be prudent too, even though there are likely needs to be more confident about the specific levels of what is needed  on the shorter time horizons for bills coming due in 1-3 months and then 3-6 months respectively. Before even getting into investing in bitcoin, there should be a kind of presumption that expenses and emergency funds should be in cash because emergency bills, if they came due would be payable in cash.  These things should be basics that are figure-out-able.

In principle, I have been a goldbug since I was a teenager.  Certain species of goldbug inevitably evolve into goldbug-Bitcoiners—for example, a goldbug who is also a cypherpunk with prior knowledge of cryptography.

Good for you.

Here's approximately how my various allocations in various assets have changed through time (from since I got into bitcoin until present..    These are approximate.. and might even be partially (or totally) fictional.. you fucks).

LOL, stocks.  With 0% allocated to gold.  You hold stocks, you are allergic to gold—what are you, Jay, a Warren Buffet who happened to wander into Bitcoin? Roll Eyes

I am a person who shows you a perspective of how allocations into various assets might change over time, and my ballpark overview started at the time that I first came into bitcoin in late 2013 and already having some investments rather than starting out with nothing.  Starting out with nothing surely would have decent chances of changing how I would have possibly approached bitcoin too.  It seems to me that in some sense, from my own perspective, I feel that I was already).

Fuck off with your attempts to denigrate my choices before getting into bitcoin as if you were someone with some kind of a superior knowledge of gold... blah blah blah.. I give little shits.. I providing you with some specific numbers and a kind of graphical depiction of where I was at in late 2013 when I first started to look into bitcoin, started to think about bitcoin and got into bitcoin.. and then you can see various snapshot of ballpark approximation renditions of how those allocations changed as compared with bitcoin ....you fuck..

Oh, and before I forget to remember.. fuck off also with your denigration of my stock investments and any implications that you made regarding how I have seemed to have maintained my stock investments over the years (since I got into bitcoin).  

I think that it is worth pointing out a kind of irony that might NOT be noticable from the snapshot renditions and even from my attempts to describe them, including that some of the details might be a bit off because I recall buying some stuff (like property) during that time and also changing some of my business matters and valuations, but some of those changes are not really captured in the snapshot renditions very well and I probably would need to go through some other records to attempt to capture that a bit better.. but anyhow one of the trends that should be emphasized is that in my first couple of years of getting into bitcoin, I was mostly investing into bitcoin with new cash and not really taking too much if any from other investments - except maybe from cash, and the two BTC price peaks of 2017 and then subsequently 2021 caused changes in the allocation valuations based mostly on the fact that bitcoin outperformed everything else and I really ONLY engaged in minimum reallocations out of bitcoin during peaks and then back into bitcoin during bitcoin corrections.  Other investments shrunk largely because bitcoin was growing so much more relative to those other investments..

In other words, in terms of nominal growth those other investments may have grown something like 75% over nearly 9 years, while bitcoin grew 78x in 2017 (and then shrunk back down in 2018) and then grew another 16x in 2021 (and then shrunk back down presently) but overall bitcoin still ended up growing well over 20x (even when in the current trough/low point) as compared with the 75% over the 9 year period for the various other assets over the same time.  

For a wee bit more background on a story that I have already told but I am a person who in late 2013, came into bitcoin while considering hedging some of my dollar investments, and yes gold/PMs was something that I had considered around that time.   Actually, right before I got into bitcoin, I did make some investments into some paper gold index fund products, and when I was making my chart, I kind of forgot about those investments that I had made, and I am pretty sure that my investment into those gold/paper products lasted for about a year.

As another side note, I recall having some other thoughts about investing in gold at other times in my life, and it seems to me that I had considered getting into Physical gold in 2001-2003 time frame, and I ended up NOT following through based on time considerations and even money considerations because I was already adding various investments around then, and then there are times in which to just let them ride and to build through DCAing, and it was not not working in terms of continuing to build my investment portfolio at that time in various ways..  

It seems that I was in a bit better of a position in late 2013 to reconsider some of my investments including again considering gold-like investments at that time, and surely when I came across bitcoin, I tentatively had considered bitcoin to have potentials as being better than gold, but of course, bitcoin was still pretty new, and at that time, I was still trying to figure out bitcoin and how it might compare with gold.. so my initial investments into bitcoin was a kind of get started and ongoing researching into the matter at the same time.. so initially I ONLY gave myself a 6 month allowance (budget) for buying bitcoin, and to study into the matter and to hopefully figure out ways to improve my knowledge as I go.. so of course, as I continue to study bitcoin, my ideas seem to have gotten more informed and reformed over the past nearly 9 years.... which the learning seems to continue.. but also there are some dynamics in the whole space too. .in regards to investing, how to invest and how to think about investing.. I would think that there are a lot of confused investors in the past couple of years.. and I am not exactly excluding myself from the category of confused in terms of attempting to be open to various ways that I might want to consider if there may well be ways to bolster and buttress where I am at... and even some of the dilemmas that some folks bring to me in terms of getting me involved in discussing their own financial investment situations.. and surely it seems to me that the first question to address is whether thy have any bitcoin.. and I might not even be very interested in terms of getting into any other discussions prior to figuring out if they first got their bitcoin portion/plan in a good place.
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June 29, 2022, 11:03:20 PM
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Something something no thread police


Oh well
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June 29, 2022, 11:04:53 PM


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June 29, 2022, 11:09:37 PM

3AC has entered liquidation, apparently.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/crypto-hedge-fund-three-arrows-capital-has-entered-liquidation-source-says-2022-06-29/
Considering this, we are doing better than expected (so far).



Much better than Golman Ballsacks getting a hold of them.
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June 29, 2022, 11:19:51 PM

By the way.. fuck off also with your juxtaposing of WO and "crypto" twitter, too.

That was quite deliberate.  Although I know that some WO regulars actually own gold, the customary anti-gold memes and the accompanying tenor of discussion are on the level of “crypto-Twitter”.  It is true, I will say it, and I don’t care if it hurts your precious feelings.

At that, sputtering cursewords in impotent rage is not a good look for you, Jay.  Especially not when anyone can review the thread, and see that I raised gold as an analogy to teach a lesson to all of the weak-hands who are scared about Bitcoin’s little dip here.  You have been tilting at me like Quixote sicced on a windmill, when I have been pointing to gold’s worst historical bear market to tell the scared people that Bitcoin is fine.  At this point, your irrational reaction to my Bitcoin-is-fine thesis is beyond baffling, and far into the realm of boring.

The rage is quite impotent, for I do not take orders from you.  There are only two people who can make me “fuck off” from WO:  theymos, and infofront.  If your name is neither “theymos” nor “infofront”, then replying to my reasoned, civil discussion in such a personally disrespectful manner will only get the response:  LOL, make me.

Fuck off ..
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June 30, 2022, 12:03:34 AM


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June 30, 2022, 12:56:14 AM
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Merited by JayJuanGee (1), OutOfMemory (1)

https://www.axios.com/2022/06/28/bitcoin-is-the-only-coin-the-sec-chair-will-call-a-commodity


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Monday morning, the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler, said on CNBC's Squawk Box that the only token he would lump in with commodities was bitcoin.
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June 30, 2022, 01:20:55 AM
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So I'm hearing rumblings in the MSM of a final crypto "washout" coming supposedly this holiday weekend.

Washout being obvious code for "Poorly coordinated bear raid."

Should be amusing if it happens. Perhaps another good buying opportunity.
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June 30, 2022, 01:22:08 AM
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call me shocked  Roll Eyes

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/06/30/sec-rejects-grayscales-spot-bitcoin-etf-application/

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June 30, 2022, 01:27:53 AM

So I'm hearing rumblings in the MSM of a final crypto "washout" coming supposedly this holiday weekend.

Washout obvious code for "Poorly coordinated bear raid."

Should be amusing if it happens. Perhaps another good buying opportunity.

If it's MSM, I tend to expect the opposite...

But market looks shite so we might well go down..  who cares
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June 30, 2022, 02:06:23 AM
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https://www.axios.com/2022/06/28/bitcoin-is-the-only-coin-the-sec-chair-will-call-a-commodity


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Monday morning, the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler, said on CNBC's Squawk Box that the only token he would lump in with commodities was bitcoin.

Incommodious for non-Bitcoin “crypto assets”—especially, IMO, for POS coins:

Quote
Driving the news: "Many of these financial assets, crypto assets, have the key attributes of a security... some like bitcoin, and that's the only one, Jim, I'm going to say, because I'm not going to talk about any of these tokens, my predecessors and others have said they're a commodity," Gensler said.

Although that Axios article do not mention POS, and this seems to be much broader than the issue of POS coins, I can’t help but notice how this fits together with the POW vs. POS debate.

One of my several core anti-POS theses is that POS coins are unavoidably securities, on grounds of “looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck”.  That is:  No matter what they are called, they “have the key attributes of a security”.  In altcoinland, I have observed POS promoters use the thinly-veiled language of “stakeholders” to describe what, in substance, are undeniably equities.  (I have been intending to write up my anti-POS theses in an organized way—need to stop wasting time messing with people whose arguments don’t matter.)

When I am extraordinarily vehement, there is usually a reason; and the reason for my vehemence against treating Bitcoin as “like a stock” is to avoid this trap.  If you buy Bitcoin, your paid-in equity is zero.  You are not a “stakeholder”.  You make no capital contribution to Bitcoin.  Rather, you are exchanging your fiat money to a cryptocurrency, which Gensler characterizes as a commodity—close enough, for these particular purposes, insofar as gold is also a commodity.

We must preserve this characteristic which has defined Bitcoin since its beginning.  It is not for nothing that many of my posts on that subject have concluded:  “Don’t argue with me.  Take it up with the SEC.”

Of course, POS is not the only way for a coin to make of itself an unregistered security.  Emphasis is in the original:

Quote
Zooming out: Ethereum was launched with a fundraiser in 2014 that most see now as a securities offering. The question is whether it has become a commodity, and whether that answer provides the regulatory roadmap for other cryptocurrencies.

In my own opinion (looking beyond this article), the Ethereum POS switch will drive in the final nail on the coffin there.  Even if ETH ever arguably became a commodity, in my opinion, the switch to being a token for “stakeholders” (i.e., thinly-veiled shareholders) will make it indubitably a security.  @SECgov will undoubtedly notice.



Note well:  Gensler did not say that Bitcoin is the only “crypto asset” which is a commodity.  Rather, he gave a tiny bit of clarity about Bitcoin while making the situation for altcoins as clear as mud.  This is classic FUD on altcoins—the sowing of literal “Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt”—but it is FUD from a very dangerous direction, i.e. the SEC Chairman.

Quote
The SEC did not respond to a request for comment and clarification from Axios.


Screenshot: @HaileyLennonBTC (Twitter)

My own analysis, looking far beyond this Axios article:  The way that the SEC is leaning, altcoins that want to avoid regulatory attacks should be running as far away from POS as they can, and making themselves more Bitcoinlike.  I myself think that some of the better alts are clearly also commodities, at least insofar as the “commodities vs. securities” dichotomy is concerned in this context..  However, I am not the SEC—and the SEC’s opinion is the problem they must face.  In this regulatory environment, where altcoins need to make sure they strictly avoid taking on “the key attributes of a security”, embracing the unregistered securities sham of POS is shooting oneself in the foot.  Needless to say, I think that the ridiculous campaign to switch Bitcoin to POS is a campaign to turn Bitcoin into an illegal unregistered securities offering.

Suggestion:  The next time that some idiot spouts at you some nonsense about switching Bitcoin to POS, shoot back:  “Why do you want to turn perfectly legal BTC into an illegal unregistered security?”

(Not legal advice.  Reasonable predictions of how the SEC and other securities regulators around the world will probably converge in their future actions.  I have no crystal ball, but I can see the writing on the wall.)
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June 30, 2022, 02:16:08 AM
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Time flies.  With this post in period 1369, death_wish shall be activity-bumped to Member rank.
then maybe you can start a thread or even start your own fund?

Is that your suggestion, Jay?

it's a possibility..

I want to make this clear up-top:

That was NOT on my mind when I raised this discussion.

In the past, it has happened that I was privately solicited to do such a thing.  At the time, it was partly a thinly-veiled way to try to make me stop wasting time, and work on Core myself.  The implication from the one with the money was that I would be eligible to take a grant from the fund—hint, hint, write some code!  That looked like a fiduciary COI to me; and moreover, although I am competent to evaluate hypothetical grants, I am frankly intimidated by the idea of coding for Core myself.  I have a very high opinion of my own abilities, but I also know my limitations.  Dunning-Kruger cases are unable to evaluate where they stand—I know perfectly well where I stand.  I am not an experienced C++ coder (C, yes—C++, no, and it is a very different language despite the similarity of names).  Some of the leading Core devs are like rock stars to me.  And “mission critical” barely even begins to describe the importance of supreme competence in Core.

What it boiled down to is that I did not want to undertake that level of commitment and responsibility.  Not as a fiduciary, and not merrily making COI payments to myself to write code in an environment where my self-confidence is so shaky.  All in all—it was flattering, but the idea went nowhere.

That was NOT on my mind when I raised this discussion.

Now that you raise it, I want to emphasize this in BIG BOLD LETTERS:  At this particular point in time and circumstances, the only way that I would start such a fund would be if (a) I could show a solid commit history myself, or (b) I had a private source of nontrivial funding, before asking the public for anything.

In the latter case, I would NOT be starting a thread in the manner of, “I have nothing, I offer nothing, but I am talented at evaluating grant applications to hand out Other People’s Money—please, please, please contribute!!!”

Rather, it would be:  “Here is a fund, with not-insignificant provable assets.  I am now evaluating grants, and paying out money.  Core developers are welcome to apply, so that they can get paid to devote more time and effort to Core.  HODLers are welcome to chip in, if they trust my honesty and my absolute executive discretion in deciding who should get what for which type of work.  Grants from my starting source of funds will develop a track record for my handling of Other People’s Money.  If nobody else ever contributes, then fine—I will simply spend the existing money until it’s gone, then put the whole thing on pause unless/until more money is available.  

Surely it seems more credible to begin to solicit funds once a system is already in place and surely if there are already funders and some monies have already begun to get distributed.  Accordingly, then it may well depend upon the credibility of anyone person, also it could provide value if there were a team, too.. so that there is potential for checks and balances.

Sometimes there are benefits in having checks and balances, but if there is a tight nit group of funders, they might not feel that it is necessary to have checks and balances... I could not really speculate that there would ONLY be one way to set up such funding things, and I suppose that whether checks and balances are included as part of the system or procedures to be followed would depend on how far outside of a tight nit group that the fund administrator might be soliciting funds.


Those who don’t believe in my integrity are free not to give; if you don’t know me, I do not take it personally.  Those who wish not to believe in my integrity, but wish to smear me and spite me, can go piss up a rope; I will rain hellfire on them, to the extent that I deign to notice them at all.”

If you feel like turning the matter into combat, then sure. fine..

Jay, one of the advantages of never being a beggar is that I never need to beg.

It seems that we should not want to put ourselves into a position in which we need to beg, if it can be helped.

I have gotten myself into pretty bad pickles in the past, and surely sometimes people (even strangers) are helpful and generous.  

I remember once being in a really bad situation in which a guy gave me a ride, and I obviously put myself into such bad position and the guy knew it too.. but he held his tongue for the most part, and it was pretty clear that the guy was not very well to do, and when he delivered my lame ass to my destination, I said let me go inside and get some money for you.  He said.  Don't worry about it.  this is on me.  I felt bad in some kind of way, but the guy was being charitable to me - even though I really did not deserve it.. and he had gotten me out of a pickle in which it was pretty clear that I was not a very deserving person.

In terms of known interest, my best contacts for this purpose disappeared years ago.  Nonetheless, I do know some people who have money on a “does not waste time on Internet forums” level, who care about Bitcoin because they are deeply invested in it.  I could ask if they are interested.  Of course, that would be up to them; and given that the types of people who could afford this tend to have cut-and-dry savvy and careful planning, I think a bad bear market is an unlikely time to get support for suddenly starting such a project.  The bigger question to me is whether I should even be thinking of such a thing right now, instead of working for my own profit in a healthy way.

I heard that it is better to put your own mask on first before worrying about if others are wearing their masks or even able to get to a position to put on their masks.

And that leads me to:

Yes, it seems to make some differences regarding how much help that you have.... and maybe even how long you (or your organization) has been in existence. You must have at least 3 assistants D_W.. hahahaha

Maybe part of the reason that many charitable groups are criticized for having so many administrative costs would be that sometimes it can even take some time to figure out how money is going to be given, but at the same time, once systems are in place (and criteria) established it likely becomes somewhat easier to keep doing what you are set up to do.

I generally detest the “nonprofit” world.  Generally.  

What I had been saying does not even need to fit within "non-profit."  It's just a matter of whether you have a system and practice in place and how many assistants you might have for carrying out the goals and objectives that are set forth in the mandate.  Sometimes non-profit seems to fit the description of how everything is arranged including the goals since it might be difficult for the endeavor to have goals of making money if their mandate is to carry out duties of distributing funds....  I am not sure how you make money on that, unless you might include  a NFT.. hahahaha.. The whole objective does not seem to be designed in a way that has a money-making purpose.. just distributing money and maybe paying for the efforts of those involved in "gettin ur dun.".. so in that regard it would most likely fit a definitionary objective of not aiming to make money as its central purpose.

There are some good people doing good work with honest motivations; I do not want to broad-brush here.  But generally, “nonprofit” attracts corruption.  In the past, I personally knew some people who drew six-figure salaries in executive sinecures spending Other People’s Money, at famous-name, highly-trusted organizations.  Their behaviour made me sick.  Much sicker to me was how highly they were hailed for their personal “altruism” and “philanthropy”.

Sure.. that kind of shit happens.. I am not sure if "non-profit" is the blame.. but of course, people can end up getting into positions in which they end up milking systems and then there is no one really able to throw them out.... so surely that does happen quite a bit.  How can it be fixed?:  Can there be meaningful checks and balances designed from within?


For that reason, anytime I aim to do some noble deed, I attempt to self-fund.  

Well, if you set something up, and then you want it to continue beyond your abilities to do the work and/or maybe beyond your death.. how do you set up your system in a way that allows it to continue to operate within your own established objectives and does not become a milk cow for bad motives..  Absent real strong visions and even the placement of good people within (difficult to know in advance), not easy to accomplish, I would imagine.

Even if you have a $10 million fund, your whole operating budget would only be about $400k per year (assuming an ability to draw 4% per year on the principle funds).  You might be able to spend half of that annual budget on administration and half on distribution to targets.

If you are administrating the fund yourself (since you funded it), maybe you could purposefully choose to have slimmer administration costs and draw a lower salary.  a $50k per year salary for you and a $50k for an assistant (if you need or want one), but there are operating expenses too, no?  It's hard to imagine a fund (even self-funded) smaller than $10 million being able to potentially perpetuate itself beyond your inability to continue with the work or your death... but if you are administering a fund long enough, you could still strive to continue to grow the fund to become larger than $10 million, and if it is starting out by growing itself by being invested in bitcoin and even holding most of its wealth in bitcoin, then it may well be possible that the fund will be able to grow on its own beyond the amount that it is spending each year.

Even devoting my time and effort to writing about issues I deem important—I so fiercely guard my integrity and independence that I even dislike putting out a tip address like yours, even though there’s nothing wrong with that; I may want to reconsider such extremes.  

I question whether I should even say anything beyond having a public bitcoin address can be used as a means to verify identify if a forum account ever gets hacked...You really speculate that I am begging or could be understood (misinterpreted) to be begging?  right.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Suffice it to say, I now have some problems with an abject lack of self-funding resources.  I currently have a project I deem important under another identity, not on this forum, which is stalled since my BTC got almost wiped.

Maybe I could revise my idea that a minimum self-funded program directed at funding others to be at least $10million in order to have a $400k budget per year.

I don't consider a project that does not sustain principle to really be operating in a sustainable way, but if you are wanting to self-fund yourself, then surely you would not necessarily need $10 million for that.  If you were bare bones then you probably could have $500k in principle, which would generate $20k per year (of course a 4% withdrawal rate) - if you believe that you could be self-funded for $20k per year.  Again, I do not believe drawing into principle is a good idea, and I believe that it is poor asset management, unless you happen to be just wanting to use up all of the money in the fund..


If someone gives you $100k and they say that they want you to spend all of it over 5 years, then you might agree to those terms in which you are spending all of the funding.. principle and everything.  If they tell you that they are giving you $1million, but they ONLY want you to spend from the income generated off of that $1million, then you may well conclude that assuming a 4% per year withdrawal rate your budget its $40k per year or $3,333 per month.

Whether you generate the money yourself and then set the terms or you get the money from someone else and they set the terms (that you agree upon), there surely can be differences in how it is set up and if it is just some kind of a short term fling or if it set up in a kind of sustainable way in which you are spending off of the passive income rather than having to spend from the principle.
 
If I were to do something like a Core development fund, then insofar as practicable, I would want to avoid or minimize spending it on reimbursing myself for my own time and effort.  Even to the extent that that would be justified, I dislike that idea.  That leaves a practical problem right now.  I probably should not even be thinking about this right now.  “Ruthless mercenary capitalist” is supposed to be my agenda!

It is not bad to think about those kinds of things, especially since my earlier responses seem to be describing several of those kinds of scenarios about whether you are completely self-funded in terms of generating your own funds to fund your own efforts, whether you receive outside funding to fund your own core developing efforts or if those funds are supposed to be distributed to others (not yourself),  of course, it could be both and it could be sustainable or not sustainable and spending all of the principle in a proscribed period.  
 
I suppose over the years, many of us in this thread have seen how bitcoin is broken in x, y or z areas.. and it can be a bit wearing.. so frequently the suggestion would be what you doing to try to fix it rather than just whining about the so many ways that bitcoin is deficient/defective and other coins have some supposedly various better processes and features that need to come to bitcoin.... so sometimes it can end up causing questions regarding what's the purpose to be constantly whining about the so many areas that bitcoin is supposedly broken.. and maybe many of us might not even agree with starting out with such premise that it is broken.. even though maybe some things can be built or more awareness on certain topics.. [...]
I agree with that.  I balance that against the need for candor in constructive criticism, avoiding the problem of yes-men, groupthink, cheerleading, and hollow shilling.  Perhaps you and I may balance that differently, but I do try to balance it.

It could be the case.  Not saying it is not..  At least not at this specific moment... Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

A life protip for you:  It is possible for a poor person to be friends with a rich person, if the former has the pride never to be a beggar, a mooch, or a cheater.  I learned this when young:  By a peculiar circumstance, I had lunch with a businessman.  He was impressed that when lunch was done, I pulled out my wallet and picked up my part of the tab.  I was a youth working odd jobs for low wages.  He was rich, and accustomed to people trying to mooch off of him.  We became fast friends.

Are you telling me something that you speculated that I did not already know in regards to judgement/character and even things that sometimes might happen in the real world to affect how character/credibility might be assessed by others?    A lot of factors come to play in terms of judging the character of others and whether there is trust, and also how much time/testing has to take place before trust develops.  there can be a difference between I trust you to do my gardening or I trust you to drive my car or I trust you to do my office work or I trust you to be my personal accountant... or I trust you to take my daughter on a date... hahahahaha thought that I would throw that last one in there for fuuuuuuun..

Another thing I want to make excruciatingly clear:  There is no bigger red flag than someone who gratuitously brags about his own honesty, and demands that others trust him for no apparent reason.  There is even a stereotype of a scammer who uses the word “Honest” in the name of his business.  Doth protest too much, methinks.

I do not and would not do that.  But when others cast groundless, wholly unjustified insinuations against my honesty (or in the case of some others here, viciously smear me as a liar), then sometimes, I do need to defend my honour.  It may involve walking a fine line.

Please recall my initial response when you implied some questions about the veracity of something I had said.  I told you that you are free to think whatever you want, as long as you do not defame me with what, in substantial effect, would be an attack on my reputation based on all cynicism and no evidence.  I said, in effect, that I do not wish to waste my time discussing anything with anyone who does not find me credible.

That is fair.  I have asked nothing from anyone here.  I have spent time and effort contributing posts that some people found valuable.  I have friends off-forum who know me and trust me; a part of the reason for my current WO posting spree is to relieve them of an emotional burden they have been suffering since January.  After months of patiently enduring my misery, they didn’t catch the brunt of my grief at catastrophic loss—y’all did, right here.

Why should I subject myself to your questions about my integrity?  I don’t need you, and I don’t need that.  Regrettably, due to opsec, I cannot even be tempted by your daughter—not unless you can PGP-encrypt her and send her through Tor to tryst with me.

 I doubt that I need to say anything in response to this diatribe... , so I won't.

I have friends who are wealthier than I am.  I have never abused their friendship—not even at times when I was personally in much worse desperation than I am now.  Because I never abuse their friendship, they respect me as their equal—even if I am flat broke.  I have nothing but contempt for the bent of your strawman.
It's too bad that you feel contempt... about my way of attempting to grapple with my perceptions of what might be important and/or relevant points to make in these here interwebs.   It could be possible that others might potentially be able to get value from some of our interactions, if they had not fallen asleep half way though them.
Contempt was for the implications of raising an idea that I was neither offering nor thinking about, then shooting it down based on slighting my credibility to do your idea.  Not for you personally.

I am not even sure if I was doing it intentionally in every instance, but surely each of us has times in which we do not necessarily accept the frame (or framework) of the other person, so we (royal that is) make a response that provides our own frame (or framework) on the topic.  

You can take such frame for whatever it is worth, or accuse me of strawmanning or being insensitive (and cruel), failing to respond to your "honor" or whatever fallacy you believe applies.. which you have already accused me of various fallacies in response to you and I have accused you of various fallacies and misleading ways of arguing your points too.. including irrelevancies and pumping of various  narratives/bitcoin naysaying talking points, too..  Sure, you and others complain about me, and sometimes I complain about others including you.  Whether it seeps into other posts or there seems to be a pattern that is identified might become part of any response too.

Some issues might continue to come up, and I am not sure if there is any way to resolve. sometimes the issues will just fade away too because they get beaten to death or maybe neither of us is bringing up the issue..   for example, when you unilaterally proclaim that I capitulated on a point merely because you wish to have such reading of what had happened, and then you expect that issue to not come up anymore, then you have likely read the matter wrong (and your expectations are too high)... There surely have been some times that I have let certain issues slide (just like you probably have too), and so sometimes those issues still might come up later down the road... unless you get some statement from me in which I truly proclaim that I am not going to talk about a certain topic again, but I have seen members go back on those kinds of claims/promises too.  I might have even done that from time to time myself.  I cannot recall (or at least I cannot represent that I have not gone back on my prior promises.. hahahahaha).
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June 30, 2022, 03:22:24 AM

I think we HAVE to go down some more... but that chart is encouraging a little because the money to be made playing this reliable game means the price want's to be made to go up.  We COULD have bottommed as many people say... but usually bitcoin bottoms are more violent than this one has seemed to have been.

If my memory is serving me very well, our move down to $17,593 (a mere 11 days ago) was pretty violent so far.. and we are still more than 10% below the 200-week-moving average (which also feels like a kind of ongoing violence.. but what do I know?).. It kind of reminds me of  our early 2015 bottom down to $153 or whatever it was?  That felt violent, too... but what do I know?

And Bitcoin does not care. 

Oh look!  Block 742858 is going to show up any second!  Or should I say, any 10 minute?

Hahahaha

I like that.  It's a great reminder. 


tick tock next block, and when will that next bitcoin block be coming in? 
in about 10 minutes   


 the last block was 2 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
in 10 minutes


But the last block was 9.5 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
in about 10 minutes, give or take.



But the last block was 35 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
in about 10 minutes, I presume.


But, but but but..  the last block was more than 2 hours ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
more or less in 10 minutes.


hahahaha

10 minutes is always the correct answer.. or some variation of 10 minutes.. like 600 seconds  or somewhere between 500 and 700 seconds - give or take


Damn it, Saylor.  You greedy guts, grabbing up and hogging a limited resource.  Leave some coins for the rest of us, will ya? Cry

I talk so much about Bitcoin, I’ve got to get me some more of them bitcoins. Smiley

I am sure if you want to get another 0.05 bitcoins - you should be able to find 'nuff liquid bitcoins for that... in other words, no problema.

[edited out]

An asset that's worth its salt can have "influencers", hodlers, diamond hands, paper hands, supporters, detractors, haters, etc. at any point throughout a thousand years (or in the case of PMs, many thousands). They will come and go, live and die.

Do you think that asset cares what the fk any of them think or do? Holding an asset is neither a flex, a fashion show, nor a popularity contest.

Bitcoin will outlive us all.

(And now I feel like an idiot personifying an inanimate digital network)

Even though I agree with your overall points, bitcoin can serve as a flex that goes above and beyond the flex abilities of existing or prior existing in terms of its potentialities to be time-locked, and so long as the network still exists it can be passed through generations.. there surely are risks that are different from passing down physical property//assets.. but surely could be a powerful flex for anyone who figures out ways to attempt to harness such bitcoin powers... that cause his/her hand to reach up from the grave far down the road (even 100s of years) - and even better if anyone is able to keep a secret and also pass such secret down (potentially to have such bitcoin be received by some undeserving snot-nosed brats).
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June 30, 2022, 03:37:47 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Even devoting my time and effort to writing about issues I deem important—I so fiercely guard my integrity and independence that I even dislike putting out a tip address like yours, even though there’s nothing wrong with that; I may want to reconsider such extremes.

I question whether I should even say anything beyond having a public bitcoin address can be used as a means to verify identify if a forum account ever gets hacked...You really speculate that I am begging or could be understood (misinterpreted) to be begging?  right.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Jay, please stop misinterpreting my words to the opposite of what I said—even as you quote me!  (Highlighting has been added to internal quote above.)

What I said, very obviously, is that I admittedly go too far.  I am so paranoid of coming off like a beggar that I shoot myself in the foot.  I have been reconsidering that.  Seriously.  WTF am I doing to myself?  I damn well know that there is a world of difference between honour and masochistic self-abnegation.  But I self-conscious about it when I fear being perceived as needy; if nobody knew my financial circumstance right now, then I would already have a tip address.  I have put out tip addresses before, which I deleted when I leaked info that I thought may give the perception of my being needy.

As you probably know, a Core developer on staff moderating the technical forum (formerly knightdk) has had a tip address in his signature for years.  I respect him highly.  theymos has a tip address in his signature.  Do you suppose that I am accusing them of begging?  If not, then why do you suppose that I “speculate” that you are begging?  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes back atcha.



Re funding for Core development:

The major substance of your post proposes what, in substance, would be an endowment.  It is a good idea.  However, it would require much more sophistication (and accordingly, higher administrative overhead).  I had been thinking more simply:  Raise money, spend it.  I will think about this further.  I do not foresee immediate action on it, anyway.  Besides any other questions, jumping into such a project in a bear market with no advance planning is not a very good approach; I’m not the one saying so.

Some of your guesses about numbers are pretty good, though I don’t want to say more about that right now.

I will think this over; I may reply further if/when it makes sense to write a long post on this particular topic.  Whether to bounce around more ideas in a public discussion, or beyond that.

Something else that’s been on my mind:

I like what e.g. MIT-DCI does with Wladimir.  Per-project grants are good and necessary; paying someone’s full-time salary gets a different type of long-term result.

I observe that, to the best of my knowledge, there is a lack of sufficient opportunities for strongly anonymous/pseudonymous developers.  Satoshi himself would be unable to obtain the position that Wladimir has with MIT-DCI.  But a part of Bitcoin’s resilience is the active contribution of parties who cannot be identified IRL—to be blunt, those who can merrily ignore any frivolous lawsuits from Craig Wright, who are immune to public harassment, etc., etc.  This is not merely a theoretical concern—not cypherpunk “paranoia”!

Given that I am strongly pseudonymous, and I never intend to be otherwise, it is interesting to me that there is probably a niche with unmet needs for funding developers who refuse to be doxed for any reason whatsoever.  “By their PGP-signed commits shall ye know them.”
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June 30, 2022, 04:04:58 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

A technical correction of commonplace misinformation:

And Bitcoin does not care.  

Oh look!  Block 742858 is going to show up any second!  Or should I say, any 10 minute?

Hahahaha

I like that.  It's a great reminder.  


tick tock next block, and when will that next bitcoin block be coming in?  
in about 10 minutes  


 the last block was 2 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block?  
in 10 minutes


But the last block was 9.5 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block?  
in about 10 minutes, give or take.



But the last block was 35 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block?  
in about 10 minutes, I presume.


But, but but but..  the last block was more than 2 hours ago?  When do you expect the next block?  
more or less in 10 minutes.


hahahaha

10 minutes is always the correct answer.. or some variation of 10 minutes.. like 600 seconds  or somewhere between 500 and 700 seconds - give or take

No.  That is entirely wrong.  It is widely believed even by longtime Bitcoiners—probably because “each block takes about ten minutes” just keeps being repeated as a meme, without the intervention of correct information.  It also goes to show how much people’s perceptions let them fool themselves about reality; how often do you see a block arrival time of “about 10 minutes”?  Only about 12% of blocks even have an arrival time between 500 and 700 seconds—a supermajority of blocks do not!  (You do correctly imply that the system is memoryless.)

I will quote myself from the technical forum (where, incidentally, I rack up merit much faster than in WO, where I am widely disliked and ignore-listed):

IMO, it means much more to everyday usage that half of blocks are much faster than 10 minutes (but the average is dragged up to 10 minutes by the long exponential tail).
To be pedantic: 63.2% of blocks are faster than 10 minutes.

Pedantry is good.  I spoke imprecisely.  I was thinking of the median.  Statistically, exactly 50% of blocks arrive within about 6:56 m:s or less; that is >= 30.7% faster than 10 minutes, “much faster” in my book.

Although this is tangential to the context in which it was raised, I miss no opportunity to help address a common error.  Most Bitcoiners get this wrong—even most regulars in Development & Technology.  Most blocks take nowhere near 10 minutes to arrive; the average of the exponential distribution is almost meaningless to everyday-life usage questions of “how long will this take?”, and the exponential distribution generally defies human intuition.

People also tend not to understand that in a memoryless system, the statistically expected arrival time starts “right now”—whenever “now” is.  Without checking when the last block occurred, I know that at the moment I make this post, the next block has a 25% chance of arriving within about 2:53 from now, a 50% chance of arriving within 6:56 from now, a 75% chance of arriving within 13:52 from now, and a 25% chance of arriving >= 13:52 from now.  The arrival time of the last block is irrelevant.


I otherwise mostly agreed with cAPSLOCK’s post.  I had intended to address the foregoing as part of a longer reply to him.  Perhaps I may complete the rest later.
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