Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[pickard]

I have no doubt BTC will be back to $1200 and beyond, but to say this is happening anytime soon is just wishful thinking.  

you haven't been around here very long have you?

when this thing turns it can rip your face off

Ive been mining since may 2011.

[1714781005]

1714781005

[1714781005]

1714781005

[1714781005]

1714781005

[dani]

After factoring the news from China into the stages of a bubble model and extrapolating, I've come to the following conclusion:

Guys I tried to warn you. Hope you listened.



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Everyone who takes this stuff too seriously, please ignore me.

much awesome, such made my day, wow

such quote! many dig. Wow!

[MAbtc]

The highs can't be overestimated, neither can the lows.

[MAbtc]

Were in for another sell off

With which coins?

www.blockchained.com

For the first time, ask volume decreased during the crash, proving that the sells were pure panic. By this time after the november, 900-450 crashcorrection, ask volume had doubled and reached eventually triple the magnitude. In april it also skyrocketed to 4-5 times the initial value.  Now it shows absolutely no will to even get back to pre-crash levels.

Honestly, I'm at a loss for how ask depth is a useful indicator here. We have no idea how many coins are waiting in the wings, off the books. And we don't know the extent of arbitrage being done by Chinese traders.

[virtualfaqs]

Were in for another sell off

With which coins?

www.blockchained.com

For the first time, ask volume decreased during the crash, proving that the sells were pure panic. By this time after the november, 900-450 crashcorrection, ask volume had doubled and reached eventually triple the magnitude. In april it also skyrocketed to 4-5 times the initial value.  Now it shows absolutely no will to even get back to pre-crash levels.

Honestly, I'm at a loss for how ask depth is a useful indicator here. We have no idea how many coins are waiting in the wings, off the books. And we don't know the extent of arbitrage being done by Chinese traders.

^This. I still can't believe there's such a huge gap between Gox & BTC China. May not be so easy to arbitrage. But was there always a 100 difference between prices?

[pickard]

Were in for another sell off

With which coins?

www.blockchained.com

For the first time, ask volume decreased during the crash, proving that the sells were pure panic. By this time after the november, 900-450 crashcorrection, ask volume had doubled and reached eventually triple the magnitude. In april it also skyrocketed to 4-5 times the initial value.  Now it shows absolutely no will to even get back to pre-crash levels.

Honestly, I'm at a loss for how ask depth is a useful indicator here. We have no idea how many coins are waiting in the wings, off the books. And we don't know the extent of arbitrage being done by Chinese traders.

^This. I still can't believe there's such a huge gap between Gox & BTC China. May not be so easy to arbitrage. But was there always a 100 difference between prices?

BTCchina used to be higher than gox as I remember it.  by quite a bit.  now it's 100 lower.

[gandhibt]

market is stable, not overbought/sold and price is creeping up

volume ath was today, isn't that good indicator of bot? maybe it bounces to 800+ and then consolidates somewhere at 600 +/-100

come back down to earth.  It won't be back above 650 for a long time, like 2014.  maybe

statements like these are always bound to fail when it comes to btc price

Maybe.  but the price before btc fever in china was about $180.  It's now a month later and we hit over $1200, now it's $550 and it was dropping before this news.  The latest news today is just the short term nail in the coffin!

I have no doubt BTC will be back to $1200 and beyond, but to say this is happening anytime soon is just wishful thinking.  

you're saying that bitcoin will not be above 650 in 2014?

btw. i did not mention 1200.

[tHash]

Will the majority of the sellers buy back in after it's clear the bottom has been hit? That's the real question here.

There's some much bigger questions than that here, not ones for this subforum though ;/

... yes?

Probably better just to wait and see how the whole thing plays out in the long term, reset's aren't a bad thing, who's finger's on the reset buttons matters though. Altcoins ftw, this whole money things overrated.

Is there anywhere you can overlay live charts? Looks like something special might have just happened, gox and stamp are still closely matched but China's doing its own thing.

Do you have a thread where you are discussing the bigger questions?   I don't have time to watch what you were seeing happen, but would like to be able to keep up . . .

It would need extra tinfoil hats, looks mostly harmless though.

For the trading, watch what the bots are doing, their patterns are fairly obvious with various functions such as damping harmonics, lines, curves and more complex patterns. They don't seem to do short term profit so there's stuff like shaping oscillations to move trends cheaply, they've been brutal on the way down but they're not hammering things around now.

I am a bit curious what the endgame of those bots was/is.   Seems expensive if someone is simply trying to force a trend.   I didn't see how much was being burnt in the process, so impossible to speculate on whether it would be beneficial to whoever sold the 10k at the top or not.   Of course the tinfoil hat idea would be that someone is trying to drive bitcoin to $0 and does not care how much it cost.

[Rampion]

Were in for another sell off

With which coins?

www.blockchained.com

For the first time, ask volume decreased during the crash, proving that the sells were pure panic. By this time after the november, 900-450 crashcorrection, ask volume had doubled and reached eventually triple the magnitude. In april it also skyrocketed to 4-5 times the initial value.  Now it shows absolutely no will to even get back to pre-crash levels.

Honestly, I'm at a loss for how ask depth is a useful indicator here. We have no idea how many coins are waiting in the wings, off the books. And we don't know the extent of arbitrage being done by Chinese traders.

^This. I still can't believe there's such a huge gap between Gox & BTC China. May not be so easy to arbitrage. But was there always a 100 difference between prices?

BTCchina used to be higher than gox as I remember it.  by quite a bit.  now it's 100 lower.

Arbitrage has never been possible between the western and the Chinese exchange, the only one bragging about how he was doing arbitrage was rpietila, demonstrating how he's just full of shit.

Then he tried to explain how he did "arbitrage": he sold on china and then waited for the price spread to be 0 or near 0, to then transfer the BTC to Bitstamp and sell there... LOL, if that's arbitrage my mom is a jet fighter.

[Sitarow]

[Unpredictable]

market is stable, not overbought/sold and price is creeping up

volume ath was today, isn't that good indicator of bot? maybe it bounces to 800+ and then consolidates somewhere at 600 +/-100

come back down to earth.  It won't be back above 650 for a long time, like 2014.  maybe

statements like these are always bound to fail when it comes to btc price

Maybe.  but the price before btc fever in china was about $180.  It's now a month later and we hit over $1200, now it's $550 and it was dropping before this news.  The latest news today is just the short term nail in the coffin!

I have no doubt BTC will be back to $1200 and beyond, but to say this is happening anytime soon is just wishful thinking.  

you're saying that bitcoin will not be above 650 in 2014?

btw. i did not mention 1200.

I think he was trying to said that bitcoin wouldn't go above 650 til next year (2 weeks from now ).

Going to bed and hoping not to see something like $300/btc in 6 hours :<

[MAbtc]

Were in for another sell off

With which coins?

www.blockchained.com

For the first time, ask volume decreased during the crash, proving that the sells were pure panic. By this time after the november, 900-450 crashcorrection, ask volume had doubled and reached eventually triple the magnitude. In april it also skyrocketed to 4-5 times the initial value.  Now it shows absolutely no will to even get back to pre-crash levels.

Honestly, I'm at a loss for how ask depth is a useful indicator here. We have no idea how many coins are waiting in the wings, off the books. And we don't know the extent of arbitrage being done by Chinese traders.

^This. I still can't believe there's such a huge gap between Gox & BTC China. May not be so easy to arbitrage. But was there always a 100 difference between prices?

BTCchina used to be higher than gox as I remember it.  by quite a bit.  now it's 100 lower.

Arbitrage has never been possible between the western and the Chinese exchange, the only one bragging about how he was doing arbitrage was rpietila, demonstrating how he's just full of shit.

Are we sure about that?

[Pruden]

www.blockchained.com

For the first time, ask volume decreased during the crash, proving that the sells were pure panic. By this time after the november, 900-450 crashcorrection, ask volume had doubled and reached eventually triple the magnitude. In april it also skyrocketed to 4-5 times the initial value.  Now it shows absolutely no will to even get back to pre-crash levels.

Honestly, I'm at a loss for how ask depth is a useful indicator here. We have no idea how many coins are waiting in the wings, off the books. And we don't know the extent of arbitrage being done by Chinese traders.

It is useful because there is obviously a correlation between coins on and off the books, especially in similar situations, and the fact is there are no new coins for sale showing up whereas it has been typical of them to do so in a dramatic manner.

[Rampion]

Were in for another sell off

With which coins?

www.blockchained.com

For the first time, ask volume decreased during the crash, proving that the sells were pure panic. By this time after the november, 900-450 crashcorrection, ask volume had doubled and reached eventually triple the magnitude. In april it also skyrocketed to 4-5 times the initial value.  Now it shows absolutely no will to even get back to pre-crash levels.

Honestly, I'm at a loss for how ask depth is a useful indicator here. We have no idea how many coins are waiting in the wings, off the books. And we don't know the extent of arbitrage being done by Chinese traders.

^This. I still can't believe there's such a huge gap between Gox & BTC China. May not be so easy to arbitrage. But was there always a 100 difference between prices?

BTCchina used to be higher than gox as I remember it.  by quite a bit.  now it's 100 lower.

Arbitrage has never been possible between the western and the Chinese exchange, the only one bragging about how he was doing arbitrage was rpietila, demonstrating how he's just full of shit.

Are we sure about that?

Yes. If arbitrage was possible we wouldn't have such spreads, the market would immediately take care of them. Arbitrage is risk free profit, if it's possible to have it you exploit it.

And btw, I respectfully proved how rpietila was not making "arbitrage" between China and Stamp, but he deleted all my posts.

The problem is that you cannot efficiently move fiat between exchanges.

[pickard]

market is stable, not overbought/sold and price is creeping up

volume ath was today, isn't that good indicator of bot? maybe it bounces to 800+ and then consolidates somewhere at 600 +/-100

come back down to earth.  It won't be back above 650 for a long time, like 2014.  maybe

statements like these are always bound to fail when it comes to btc price

Maybe.  but the price before btc fever in china was about $180.  It's now a month later and we hit over $1200, now it's $550 and it was dropping before this news.  The latest news today is just the short term nail in the coffin!

I have no doubt BTC will be back to $1200 and beyond, but to say this is happening anytime soon is just wishful thinking.  

you're saying that bitcoin will not be above 650 in 2014?

btw. i did not mention 1200.

I fail to see how...  we have 12 days to new year.  7 billion dollars (50%) wiped from the market cap in 12 days.  and it was still dropping before the latest news. The people in China investing are not kids with PC's and a few $$ they were real investors that could not give a shit about btc they just wanted to make money.  

I think it's doubtful we will see $650 anytime soon.  It's Christmas too, so some people will cash out a little for the festive season and new year.  

But if you think otherwise... tell me where you think the new investment will come from.

[emanymton]

market is stable, not overbought/sold and price is creeping up

volume ath was today, isn't that good indicator of bot? maybe it bounces to 800+ and then consolidates somewhere at 600 +/-100

come back down to earth.  It won't be back above 650 for a long time, like 2014.  maybe

statements like these are always bound to fail when it comes to btc price

Maybe.  but the price before btc fever in china was about $180.  It's now a month later and we hit over $1200, now it's $550 and it was dropping before this news.  The latest news today is just the short term nail in the coffin!

I have no doubt BTC will be back to $1200 and beyond, but to say this is happening anytime soon is just wishful thinking.  

you're saying that bitcoin will not be above 650 in 2014?

btw. i did not mention 1200.

I fail to see how...  we have 12 days to new year.  7 billion dollars (50%) wiped from the market cap in 12 days.  and it was still dropping before the latest news. The people in China investing are not kids with PC's and a few $$ they were real investors that could not give a shit about btc they just wanted to make money.  

I think it's doubtful we will see $650 anytime soon.  It's Christmas too, so some people will cash out a little for the festive season and new year.  

But if you think otherwise... tell me where you think the new investment will come from.

from teh moon people!!!

[pickard]

+  I really think Chinese are cashing out back to banks or any way they can to get back to fiat.  No doubt many have overseas accounts and are, getting it there before their gov. makes more new rules.  These sales are not money kept in exchanges imho,  it's money that is leaving the game for a while if not for good.  

[Dragonkiller]

Were in for another sell off

With which coins?

www.blockchained.com

For the first time, ask volume decreased during the crash, proving that the sells were pure panic. By this time after the november, 900-450 crashcorrection, ask volume had doubled and reached eventually triple the magnitude. In april it also skyrocketed to 4-5 times the initial value.  Now it shows absolutely no will to even get back to pre-crash levels.

Honestly, I'm at a loss for how ask depth is a useful indicator here. We have no idea how many coins are waiting in the wings, off the books. And we don't know the extent of arbitrage being done by Chinese traders.

^This. I still can't believe there's such a huge gap between Gox & BTC China. May not be so easy to arbitrage. But was there always a 100 difference between prices?

BTCchina used to be higher than gox as I remember it.  by quite a bit.  now it's 100 lower.

Arbitrage has never been possible between the western and the Chinese exchange, the only one bragging about how he was doing arbitrage was rpietila, demonstrating how he's just full of shit.

Are we sure about that?

Yes. If arbitrage was possible we wouldn't have such spreads, the market would immediately take care of them. Arbitrage is risk free profit, if it's possible to have it you exploit it.

And btw, I respectfully proved how rpietila was not making "arbitrage" between China and Stamp, but he deleted all my posts.

The problem is that you cannot efficiently move fiat between exchanges.

http://reuters.com/article/2013/12/11/us-china-bitcoin-idUKBRE9BA0B020131211

[MAbtc]

www.blockchained.com

For the first time, ask volume decreased during the crash, proving that the sells were pure panic. By this time after the november, 900-450 crashcorrection, ask volume had doubled and reached eventually triple the magnitude. In april it also skyrocketed to 4-5 times the initial value.  Now it shows absolutely no will to even get back to pre-crash levels.

Honestly, I'm at a loss for how ask depth is a useful indicator here. We have no idea how many coins are waiting in the wings, off the books. And we don't know the extent of arbitrage being done by Chinese traders.

It is useful because there is obviously a correlation between coins on and off the books, especially in similar situations, and the fact is there are no new coins for sale showing up whereas it has been typical of them to do so in a dramatic manner.

Is there an obvious correlation? Could you elaborate as to what that correlation is? What similar/typical situations are we talking about?

This seems very anecdotal. I'm not sure I see the evidence.

Doesn't ask depth dropping make sense when asks are pulled to market sell? Does it make sense to keep your limit orders at $1500 on the book if you are willing/planning to dump them lower?

[adamstgBit]