Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[seleme]

http://bitcointicker.co/combined/ is killing my computer. Fans going to so hard I feel the site is using my CPU to mine!

yep, I tried it other day and had to close it, it uses too much resources.

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[pickard]

Next bottom will be in the $250-$300 range. Then rebound up to $500-ish. Finally, crash down to $100-$150 before end of year.

That would be nice to pick em up at that price again!  

I think about $390 on BTC-e before a rise to $550 then down again.  

[thezerg]

ref: rpietila / others who 'knew'

Did they just have 'better' information than us in terms of an early 'nod' on the news?

Maybe this has been raised in the last few pages - I confess I haven't got time to look back - but is it not possible someone knew someone, who knew what was about to happen?

To accurately say 'it will go down to 500' is pretty good.

Was it a timed assault of a wave of selling and the timing was lucky - or was it timed FOR the news once it was obvious it was coming (if you had the right information).

Questions, questions.....

Go here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0
Read it.  And then, when you have time, read it again.
This is a good-quality spinoff from that thread as well: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0

Multiple people here were saying $400-$500.

We were all warned and probably most of us very conscious that it just could not stay that high.

It's not necessarily the fact that they got better info, but rather the fact that people more used to doing market analysis and such calls are much more confident in their own assesment of the situation. This allows to execute for longer plans.

I sold when rpietila said, but then I bought back 100 usd below, and then I did that like 4 more times during swings. Had I been more confident, I would've stayed out from the very first time I sold and made at least 2x what I made.

this is all fud driven. As the Chinese government hasn't confirmed shit. China loves to self censor and the world freaked out.

I am quite leaning against the opposite.

Fud driven would imply mayhem and all around uncertainty.

Every day that passes I'm more convinced this was all carefully orchestrated from the get go at 150..

The amount of exchanges available now (as opposed to previous bubbles) made it possible for a much more timely and organized pump & dump.

The China card allowed for a proper and very credible source of misinformation.

"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity"  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor

In terms of the timing, we were clearly several slopes above the baseline exponential.  The market tapping out twice around 1100 was a key indicator.  And there were multiple anecdotal indicators -- holiday spending, news coverage reaching saturation, etc.  Understanding the China role in this rally and understanding the perception of China's role.

Any significant negative news was going to trigger a correction.  Nothing has really changed in bitcoin-land.  We just got ahead of ourselves (again!)

But look, don't ever expect to "call" the top or bottom.  Be selling single digit percentages of your holdings every few days when super-exponential and the prior bubble looks like an anthill on the chart.  Be buying the same small chunks on the way down, starting from a 25 to 50% retracement.

This is not investment advice.  I am not your investment advisor.

[Nemo1024]

http://bitcointicker.co/combined/ is killing my computer. Fans going to so hard I feel the site is using my CPU to mine!

I have a ton of tabs, including this site and FireFox is only at 4% CPU load.

[pickard]

I am totally lost, everything single bone in my body is telling me to skip this day...

all bears should  vote 0

Hmm yes maybe the bears would vote lower anyway.  but your prediction of $700 in 5 hours is vastly optimistic.

[freethink2013]

http://bitcointicker.co/combined/ is killing my computer. Fans going to so hard I feel the site is using my CPU to mine!

there used to be a javascript years ago that webmasters could put on their sites so site visitors would mine for them so it's not beyond possibility

[kurious]

ref: rpietila / others who 'knew'

Did they just have 'better' information than us in terms of an early 'nod' on the news?

Maybe this has been raised in the last few pages - I confess I haven't got time to look back - but is it not possible someone knew someone, who knew what was about to happen?

To accurately say 'it will go down to 500' is pretty good.

Was it a timed assault of a wave of selling and the timing was lucky - or was it timed FOR the news once it was obvious it was coming (if you had the right information).

Questions, questions.....

really ?!! now you are at the denial stage ? I clearly told you the price was about to drop, but you all told me that I am a retard for selling at 850 remember ? well I bought some at 700-650-540, most epic trade I ever did.

30% regain

I know you were right - and I didn't believe you were at the time...

I just think it was a planned action before the china news - rpietila was so sure of 500 imminently and I don't see how anyone can be that sure of a price in Bitcoin.

In that respect - I am in denial - yep!

[gandhibt]

Nothing hurts more than when your intuition told you to sell at a certain price, and you ignored it.

when trading bitcoin your intuition is the enemy

although if you have been trading coins like >5 years you got maybe a small touch of how its done (nobody)

make a plan and stick to it

you're a robot when u trade

[bitcodo]

she take BTC?

i'm looking to get me some art

She is a bit bearish.

google Hidden Eloise or visit http://hiddeneloise.com/

[adamstgBit]

I am totally lost, everything single bone in my body is telling me to skip this day...

all bears should  vote 0

Hmm yes maybe the bears would vote lower anyway.  but your prediction of $700 in 5 hours is vastly optimistic.

I realize that, stand by it nontheless

[mmitech]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG1qooBzE2w

[seleme]

...

Stop thinking too much about regrets mate, it won't bring you anywhere. We could all be multi millionaires if there's no regrets, you can't make it right each time, nobody can't.

Thanks for the words of support.

Only time will tell if I take anything from analyzing these emotions, but I think that making oneself aware of them is the first step in bringing ones emotions under control and thus making better decisions.

If you're going to analyze them then at least do it when there's no much action. Days like this are not right time to analyze emotions as they could push you to make wrong decisions, and market is already too crazy in days like this one to afford that to happen.

Try to make some profits, as long as you are in profit, it's easier to swallow that you could be even in bigger one. I made like 3500$ on LTC today in 20 minutes or so, could make 8k if I waited half an hour more. But fuck it, I worked like 3 months for those 3500$ before Bitcoin, it's great.

[adamstgBit]

Record 6hr volume on Stamps

looks like most poeple like to sell at the bottom,

nothing has changed

[Rannasha]

Next bottom will be in the $250-$300 range. Then rebound up to $500-ish. Finally, crash down to $100-$150 before end of year.

What? You're not predicting single digits anymore? That's super-bullish IMO.

[seleme]

Next bottom will be in the $250-$300 range. Then rebound up to $500-ish. Finally, crash down to $100-$150 before end of year.

What? You're not predicting single digits anymore? That's super-bullish IMO.

He sold all 10 000 coins from his 34 coins wallet, he can't manipulate the prices anymore  

[Nightowlace]

So I have a doubt... The FinCen claims Casascius selling the coins makes him an unregistered “money transmitter”.

If Casascius were to sell the coins with just the set of keys, but no BTC in them, would he be completely ok ?

I'm sure the Trezor guys won't be labeled a "money transmitter" right? It's like selling an ipod or whatnot..

This is correct but Casascius has stated that he will never sell empty hologramed coins. The fact is that there are too many unknowing customers out there on ebay, etc. Not everyone realizes you have to check the balance. I have sold many coins and asked them if they wanted to check the balance and have been given a "nope looks great" reply.

Too risky for unloaded coins to be sold for full price.

[humanitee]

Record 6hr our volume on Stamps

looks like most poeple like to sell at the bottom,

nothing has changed

I just now saw the low on Bitstamp. LOL

So many singed buttholes in so little time. I'm long aloe vera!

[ErisDiscordia]

Holy shit! What a day. In the last hour and a half I just sold crazy amounts of Casascius Coins. This price dip has a lot of people stocking up. Either that or like me they suck at day tarding realized that and decided it was best to have physical coins that they wont lose trading. haha.

Not sure if intentional typo, but henceforth I shall refer to the act of exchanging btc for fiat and vice versa on a daily basis as DAY TARDING  

Me, I'm no day tarder, I'm just hodling.

[Sitarow]

http://bitcointicker.co/combined/ is killing my computer. Fans going to so hard I feel the site is using my CPU to mine!

[Mirsad]

Bounce is not over.. we will reach 550-600 Euros top! Next drop will be under 300 Euros!
A lot of biggies bought back below 400 Euros -> massive profit above 500 Euros -> Sell -> panic -> profit again