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Question: Nov. 18 closing price:
<$35,000 - 4 (9.1%)
$35,000-$35,500 - 1 (2.3%)
$35,500-$36,000 - 4 (9.1%)
$36,000-$36,500 - 4 (9.1%)
$36,500-$37,000 - 4 (9.1%)
$37,000-$37,500 - 3 (6.8%)
$37,500-$38,000 - 4 (9.1%)
$38,000-$38,500 - 5 (11.4%)
$38,500-$39,000 - 2 (4.5%)
$39,000-$39,500 - 1 (2.3%)
$39,500-$40,000 - 0 (0%)
>$40,000 - 12 (27.3%)
Total Voters: 44

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26309721 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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December 12, 2023, 02:33:37 AM
Merited by True Myth (2), xhomerx10 (1), AlcoHoDL (1), bitmover (1), bitebits (1)

You might consider my sustainable withdraw thread to be helpful in terms of the kinds of ideas regarding how to consider withdrawing bitcoin and valuing it, and my fuck you status thread for how many BTC you might need to have by certain points in your journey.

Of course, if you end up retiring 20-30 years prior to your normal retirement age, and maybe we can use 60 as that age (since that is what you mentioned), then surely you would have to have bitcoin retain you for the time that you stop working and the time that those other sources of income (cashflow) start to become available to you.  

I personally attempt to consider that we should be attempting to value bitcoin in terms of today's dollar value, so we should be attempting to presume that any future projection of how much we need is accurate in terms of today's dollars, but at the same time, it is quite likely that the way that the dollar (and other fiat currencies) have been so heavily debased in the last several years, there are vary low odds that various kinds of hyper-inflation are not going to kick in at various times, so surely it may well be better to be earning money during those kinds of times rather than being stuck with cashflows that come from various kinds of fixed income sources.. and perhaps bitcoin might be one of the ONLY assets that have any kind of decently good chances of both being able to keep up with inflation (and the ongoing degradation of money) and being able to have some sort of price appreciation on top of it.

There have been many assessments of both stocks and property values that likely show that they have not really gone up in value over the past 20-30 years, but instead have merely been keeping pace with the ongoing degradation of the dollar, so it is kind of a misconception and even a lopsided way in which the ONLY people who have not lost as much are those who are invested, versus anyone who has been relying on cash and income and other ways of saving (not talking about bitcoin) have not really been able to keep up at all, and so bitcoin so far seems to be one of the ONLY ones that is regularly outpacing the degradation of the dollar.. and sure there are some stocks and properties that outperform the others, so there are some ways that you could have had selected stocks that generally outperform index funds and the rest of the market.. but we know that many times asset managers do not even have much luck in terms of just being able to out perform index funds.
I appreciate the feedback and insight.  I did read through your posts that you mentioned and found some helpful information.

Explaining to other people that keeping large sums of money in a "savings account" is actually resulting in them losing money over time is a struggle I run into.  They ussually say something like but, "I get a 2.5% interest rate so I'm actually gaining money."  They fail to understand inflation and its affects on their buying power.  

Well yes.  There is a difference between real and nominal, and so one of the incredibly deceptive aspects of money printing comes through when we see people who are actually believing that they are getting ahead because they are earning higher and higher interest rates, and we even had some of those same kinds of dynamics with member(s) trying to sell the idea of US Govt bonds merely because they are earning 5% or 6% annual interest, and so these are not even dumb people who are lured into these products because there can be a lot of uncertainties regarding where to put your money.. and surely those people who had been sucked into US Govt bonds in 2022 and even this year, while bitcoin prices were either in the low $20ks or in the sub $20ks can now see that they would have been way better off to put that same money into bitcoin.. and sure, no problem if you have a lot of money and you want to diversify into a variety of kinds of investments(savings), but some people do not have much or any bitcoin and they get lured into those kinds of inferior products that might not show themselves as inferior until way down the road..

Similar to much of 2020 when there were a lot of opportunities to get into bitcoin below $10k - and surely a lot of people could have still gotten into bitcoin below $8k, even if they might not have had been able to time some of the greater BTC crashes into the lower $6ks and even the March 2020 crash that got as low as $3,850... but even if we take $10k as an average price that someone might have had been able to get into bitcoin at various points in 2020 and perhaps even making several mistakes along the way, they still would have preserved a lot of purchasing power in BTC even if we are not going based on the higher spot price fluctuations that brought us up to $69k, but if we look at a more steady assessment of average BTC price, we still see that the 200-week moving average went up from around $5k in early 2020 and currently showing itself at $29,306.. and yeah, the 200-week moving average seems to be a decent way of valuating bitcoin in terms of bottom prices (even though it is not an absolute bottom)... right now it is going up at a rate of about $24 per day.

I got funny looks from the account manager at the bank the day I went in to close my savings account and withdraw all of it.  

Personally, I believe it is better to try to keep some of those kinds of accounts open, as long as they are not costing you too much money in terms of minimum deposit sizes and/or fees for keeping them open... so what is the threshold? and are they more problems than they are worth?  I am not sure..

She told me I have the highest interest rate possible because I was grandfathered into a high yield account. She said we dont even offer that high of a rate anymore so why would I want to lose that.  I asked her what the rate was and she said 3%. I told her that's not enough please close the account.  She was in disbelief.

Yes.. in real terms it is not likely earning any interest.. and may even be costing you, but many accounts do not offer any interest at all... and so in that sense either way it is costing you to keep very much value in those kinds of accounts.. so yeah, I am not sure of the balance, and I am not sure if it necessary to close those kinds of accounts, but maybe to be careful in how much value that we hold in those of accounts and recognizing that they are costing us money to maintain value in them.

I have several bank accounts and most of them don't earn any interest, but sometimes it is going to be difficult to do certain things without some of those kinds of accounts, and it can be problematic to lose your banking history or your credit, and sure some people cannot even get credit and we are likely transitioning away from credit systems, yet it could take 50-200 years to really get into a bitcoin standard, and even in the next 10 to 30 years, it is likely going to remain valuable to have some abilities to transact within traditional systems.. and some systems are not going to allow or recognize bitcoin transactions.. and if those are the kinds of limitations that you want, then that's your choice.. There are bitcoin pioneers who want to push limits and ONLY have their value in bitcoin (or mostly), but I have my doubts about the practicality of that way of living especially for the vast majority of normies.. unless you really are able to do it without suffering too much.

By the way, the vast majority of normies know fuck all about bitcoin, even if they might have had heard the word, and even a lot of bitcoin HODLers do not know very much about bitcoin... so it seems way better to try to get more and more people holding bitcoin and even to transact directly in bitcoin.  I have a system in which I have been giving quite a bit of bitcoin away even in recent times (to friends and relatives), so one of the requirements is just to have a bitcoin address.. and at the same time, I talk about the power of having your own wallet .. and so many people gravitate towards various custodial services. and opt for the easy way out.. so it can be difficult to interact with these kinds of people and even some people refuse to get a bitcoin address.  

I had a friend contact me recently.  He is in his late 40s.. perhaps close to 50, and he has a family and likely terminal or close to terminal illness.. even though he has quite a bit of hope  and surely is not a dumb person in terms of his education level and abilities to understand complicated topics (and nuances), and so much back and forth with him about my willingness to send him way more money if he gives me a bitcoin address, and so far he has refused and I am getting ready to give up.. but there still is some value in going back and forth and never really giving up completely, but maybe from time to time pausing in the intensity of the back and forth communications..  I even told him that I give no fucks about if he even holds onto the bitcoin, he can cash it out right away, but I am ONLY going to send him higher amounts of value (I already sent some value in dollars) if he gives me a bitcoin address.
 
Cost of living is another factor that varies greatly and is impacted by inflation. That is part of the reason why I mention becoming an unofficial expat.  I do not have some sort of great patriotism that ties me to any one country.  I am perfectly happy hopping around to what ever country fits my wants or needs at any point in my life once retired.  There are obviously factors such as standard of living, cost of living, political climate, and Healthcare system that must be taken into account though.

I can relate.  I do those kinds of travels myself, and sometimes it can become quite challenging.. so surely if you are not yet up in age, then you might be imaging some of the matters in terms of age, but there surely can be some challenges when moving from place to place.

The value of my "over 60 assets" and its buying power is definitely something that concerns me as they are tied to the US economy and USD strength.  The world is an unpredictable place and the only thing certain is change.  Sometimes I wonder if I made the right decision not to empty those accounts, take the early withdraw fee, and buy BTC with it.  I have a friend that did this in 2017 and it obviously worked out for him so far.

I was very tempted in 2014 to the same thing, and surely I would have had done way better with my bitcoin investment had I cashed out some of my dollar based funds and put them into bitcoin, yet in the end, I suppose i am glad that I did not do it, even though they would have had been way more valuable.. and I think that there is some value in keeping some of those accounts active, even though they are largely melting icecubes... and they are not appreciating even close to as much as bitcoin.

Largely I like to suggest that I was already financially independent by the time that I came to bitcoin in late 2013, and so part of my motivation in getting into bitcoin was to be able to hedge my various dollar based investments, so I considered that it could take me close to 15 or 20 years to be able to get my bitcoin side of my investment to be somewhere near the same size as my dollar based investments, but largely it seems to have had ONLY taken around 3-4 years.. and sure I tell variations of this story, but if you take all of my dollar based investments and you might see that they grew around 80% or so over the past 10 years, but my bitcoin investment grew more than 40x (depending on how you calculate the matter), and I say that I could completely live off my various fiat based investments if bitcoin were to go to zero, so that is part of the rationale to just keep the fiat based investments in place, and at the same time, maybe we could say that if bitcoin is valued around $3k to $4k, then my bitcoin investments are valued about equally to my various fiat investments..

so either one could go to zero (and maybe we have to use the 200-week moving average as our way of valuating the bitcoin investment), but if we also look at bitcoin from a $3k to $4k valuation, then if the 200-week moving average is getting close to 10x that size, and so there is almost like a 10x (or would it be 9x?) cushion?.. and so is that too much value to have into bitcoin as compared to the fiat side?  I am not sure, but it still seems that I could completely live off the fiat side of my investment if bitcoin were to go to zero, but there still could be various points in which some additional shaving off of the bitcoin side could be considered as prudent practices to make sure that not too many eggs are in one basket.. even though the fiat side is not really doing that great in terms of holding its value relative to bitcoin and even relative to maintaining purchasing power, so it seems that putting bitcoin value into some of the fiat side is like throwing that value into a bit of a dark hole in which the bitcoin side bails out the fiat side.. just to maintain the fiat side as a kind of functional system.. just in case the bitcoin side might not hold up.. Seems like low odds of such, but it is not non-zero odds.
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December 12, 2023, 02:56:48 AM

Even with your forum registration date, maybe we could consider you as being close to a full cycle kind of guy, but still even if you had been fairly aggressively accumulating BTC for the last 4 years at $100 per week, you would have invested right around $21k, and you would have gotten around 1.11 BTC ($48,840)- which still is ONLY around less then 2.5x rise in value. or around 150% profits.. and with an asset like bitcoin, I have my doubts about the extent that it would be worth it to be cashing out any BTC - unless maybe you had happened to front load your investment, like I already mentioned...

The country where I live (Pakistan), 100$ per week (or 400$ per month) is not a small amount. Here average income is around 300$ per month. I try my best to accumulate as much as I can but investing 100$ per week is not in my reach TBH. If you are from developed country like USA where average income is 8000$ for such people investing 100$ in Bitcoin or any other asset is not a big deal.
Rest I do agree that there can be resistance at 50 or 55k rather with current dip we can inferior that Bitcoin has its first resistance at 44/43k before it make its way to 50k.
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December 12, 2023, 03:01:18 AM


Explanation
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December 12, 2023, 03:15:05 AM


The weekly candle saw some correction at last hahaha gonna test the support range 39K-37K max I hope

Btw do u guys know about Bookmap?
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December 12, 2023, 03:31:11 AM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)

Well, using a bit of leverage would have worked during 2014-2015, in early 2017, in late 2018 and 2022, but in my experience, significant leverage always kills your account in the end...maybe that's why i was a bit worried about M. Saylor in late 2022, but, apparently, he did not have any covenants that would have caused him to buy back the loan at that time, despite the fact that MSTR book value was probably deeply negative back then.
If he would have been obligated to buy back the loans, MSTR would have to sell into a 'hole", then go bankrupt, and btc would dip even more. There are multiple stories about successes, like people using credit card debt and buying gobs of btc in 2015, but the stories of some who did the same in an inopportune time are not being told and, obviously, you could have put yourself in a pickle by doing this in late 2017 and 2021.

So, my general thought about the leverage is...just don't do it!

EDIT: someone wants to create the negative weekly handle in US or close the CME gap?
$41894 read... Sad

Regarding leverage, there could have had been some ways that Saylor might have had been gambling in ways that were greater than he had said that he was doing, but Saylor was not even close to being that level of overleveraged. 

The dumbass overleveraged twats were trading with their bitcoin and trading with other people's bitcoin, so they were going quite a bit further than Saylor in term of the kinds of leverage plays that they were pursuing... and sure there were some of the BIG players who were able to get out of some of those gambling products prior to their crash. and so yeah, normies sometimes will get risky and daring in their own ways of leveraging based on their witnessing what others are doing and even misreading the abilities of their own cashflows to service their debts in the event that their investment does not go in the direction that they had anticipated.

As far as weekly candles, at the time of your post we were already at the beginning of a new weekly candle, so it is not as difficult to make a new weekly candle to be red as compared with our streak of 8 weekly candles, and including the last one that closed yesterday at $43,786, there would have had been needs to bring that one down to below $40k to have had been able to close it in the red, rather than it's closing in the green.

So then this week's candle becomes a different story and so it is opening quite high at $43,786, so it is not going to be easy to necessarily get it to close in the green, but how likely is it to have more than 8 green weekly candles in a row.. so it could hardly be bearish to have this 9th candle to come out red rather than green.. but I am not going to take it for granted or even pre-judge since we have more than 5.5 more days before this current weekly candle closes.. and whether or not it is able to get back above $43,786 seems like sleeping kind of information.. even though getting back above $43,786 would be kind of exciting to have 9 weekly greens in a row... .

[edited out]
If this was in reference to my post above yours, I am not referencing leverage.  I talking about accounts like a 401k.  If you withdraw before you are 60 years old there is the typical income tax (let's say 24%) plus an additional 10% fee since you are not 60 years old.  So, if in 2017 someone emptied say $100,000usd from thier 401k they would end up with $66,000usd.  They then used that to buy bitcoin with.  No leverage involved.  Only the bet that you make up the $34,000 you had to pay as well as any compounded interest you would of made if it remained in the 401k.

There can also be ways to roll the 401k into a qualified account in which you would be able to buy BTC through such qualified account, but I heard that some of the rolling over into qualified accounts are getting more and more difficult to accomplish... especially the self-directed kinds of ones that would allow you to directly hold BTC rather than using a qualified custodian... but who know with ETFs, there might be some attractive options.. but still might not get quite to the same level of self-custody.. but they would still mostly get the BTC exposure without the penalties and still presumptively this would not be all of you BTC since you already hold BTC separately from those accounts, so you may well end up having way more BTC held privately as compared to the 401k or even a 401k that would be rolled over into some kinds of accounts that would be able to get BTC exposure without the withdrawal or the tax penalties, and remain tax deferred, too.

[edited out]
........Considering the fact that its market cap is nearly one trillion USD as we speak, it wouldn't be able to survive for so long if there was a fundamental flaw in the code.

I cannot remember your exact story in terms of your bitcoin entry date, AlcoHoDL.. but I was thinking that maybe you were only a couple of years after me... .. but let's say that we both got into bitcoin and we had some similar kinds of faith in bitcoin, even prior to its having as long of a track record, and even prior to it even coming close to $300 Billion in market cap... .. but surely we had some conviction, and perhaps our conviction increased in a kind of Lindy effect kind of way, just as bitcoin's investment thesis likely got stronger and stronger and stronger in a kind of Lindy effect way, especially after some challenges that we might not have had completely understood either how they would resolve or what exactly was motivating the challenges or if there might have been some hidden challenges that we were not appreciating, and no one was catching.. even with the crowd-sourcing effect of reviewing the code but at the same time thinking that there has to be great incentives to review the code with billions and billions and billions of dollars of value being stored within the system, but then other businesses and systems being built on 2nd and 3rd layers that were dependent upon the success of bitcoin in order for their own businesses and time, energies and money being spent upon investing into bitcoin.

Returning to where this discussion originally started, I don't think an informed coiner has any reason to be bitter, toxic or aggressive towards nocoiners, aside from the occasional Bat-slap, rusty pipe, and other amusing funzies and mindrustenings. For one thing, a coiner, depending on the size of his/her stash, is likely not going to need to be bothered by the opinions of others in this matter. A bit of disappointment, perhaps, an urge to spread the word, maybe, but no bitterness, no hate.

As longer term bitcoiners, we likely have some responsibilities, like elderly statesmen, but at the same time not necessarily being patronizing to the fact that there are people who take a while to convert from nocoiners to low coiners and perhaps transitioning into coiners who have a significant and meaningful investment of time, energies and value into dee cornz.

And, surely our responsibilities are voluntary since we can be gentlmanly about the whole matter or we can be dicks, and surely there are all kinds of folks in bitcoin in the sense that bitcoin is for enemies, so we might not even want to be helpful to some people who end up getting into bitcoin.

Just look at the price: $42,208 as I type this. How can you not believe? LOL
Edit: Improved layout & syntax, added some text.

I believe... and yeah, it may well be a very lose religion at best, based on quite a bit of maths and sciences. but at the same time having connections with humans too.. even though very difficult to change certain aspects.... because humans that want to change it have to convince other humans who don't want to change it, in which consensus is likely more powerful than democracy in terms of the difficulties to change.. a kind of philosophy in that if it is not broken, then don't fix it... and either get involved with it (in terms of your time, energies and value) or choose not to...
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December 12, 2023, 03:48:56 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

mmh ok.. gox coins seem to be coming..

I hope I'm wrong but my guess is we go down to 35k at least, maybe testing 30k.  Bears have been slaughtered recently so they will cling to any fud they can.  Apart from an ETF denial, which is unlikely, this will be their last big chance.  

Again, I hope I'm wrong.  But on the other hand, a good shakeout has always been positive for a parabolic event afterwards.  And people are just a bit too bullish right now, imo.
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December 12, 2023, 03:56:34 AM


Why would we give any shits about Ethereum in these here parts?

Possible market trend change? How about good old "BTC is down because people withdraw crypto to fiat to buy Xmas presents" ? That excuse always worked.


And then "crypto?"  Why do you want to talk about that?  to the extent that "crypto" means anything that might be related to topics of his thread?

Classic day

I read some guys predicting we either go up or go down …
At this point every guru making sure he got it right 🤓

That's what I usually say.. 50/50. or maybe sometimes there will be more nuance when we add sideways into the equation.. but still the end result may well be something close to a coin toss with a slight advantage to one side or another depending on things happening at the time of the observation.

An additional $3000 - $5000 bonus dump on top of the recent red candle would be appropriate.

Let us pray.



Those of us who are so inclined.


Maybe it will happen, and maybe it won't?  - whether "appropriate" or not.. that's another story.


An additional $3000 - $5000 bonus dump on top of the recent red candle would be appropriate.
9k up candle would be more appropriate .

Yes...

Which way creates the most pain?  Perhaps UPpity is more painful than downity.. especially for those who had been underinvesting, fence sitting or otherwise failing/refusing to adequately prepare their lil selfies for UP.
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December 12, 2023, 04:01:15 AM


Explanation
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December 12, 2023, 04:35:12 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Let us prey.... upon those who fail to hodl.
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December 12, 2023, 05:01:14 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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December 12, 2023, 05:37:30 AM

So basically I remember JJG fucking around and saying there is no 4 year cycle (at least 2 years ago)

Doesn't sound like the same JJG that I know.

Sure any of us sometimes might make arguments that might seem self-contradictory or even arguing from various stances, but if you might think about my posts have never really wavered very much from assertions that BTC price dynamics have a lot to do with 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects (referring to those espoused by Trace Mayer).

So sure, there might be times when I might take some counter-positions, but frequently I had gone back to those same points, and I have not really stopped saying those kinds of things even if there might be some problems with the various squigglies that Plan B wrote out, but  I am not against the idea, even if the exact numbers might not be correct. 

I don't tend to be a big fan of supercycle or nonsense about bitcoin's price following hashrate, but that does not necessarily mean that I am consistent in terms of all of my posts or that some of my other ideas might seem to contradict from time to time..

I also don't tend to take for granted short-term price moves, and even that anything is close to guaranteed, so if someone is even arguing something that I agree with but describing it as a certainty rather than a probability set, then that could also cause me to take the opposite position... or at least seem to take the opposite position, because I frequently will fight back with assertions that I perceive to be too rigid, even if I might agree that whatever had been asserted to be the most likely scenario.. because even most-likely scenarios rarely have confidence levels that would even be higher than 60% or so, unless maybe some kind of a real short term set up.. but even then, I tend to be a wiffle-waffler when it comes to many aspects of BTC price matters, even though it is an ongoing topic in these here parts..

When I look at the reward to fee next 3  ½ ings if miners keep force fees to stay at 30 stats

10 percent fee per block   now
18 percent fee per block   2024
31 percent fee per block.  2028
47 percent fee per block   2032

what does all of the above mean for supply shock?
say

6.95000  now
3.82500  2024
2.26250  2028
1.48125  2032

if fees flatten out at .7 btc per block. the ½ effect ends  by 2036 or sooner if fees go to a steady 1 btc  a block

You come up with some doosies, sometimes... and yeah there are going to be changes in the ratios in which miners are more dependent upon fees rather than subsidies.. so yeah, each halvening we will see the extent to which the BTC price goes up which would be at least doubled ever four years for the halvening to have the same effect on the reward... so surely, it is difficult to predict that many legs in advance without necessarily knowing price, and if BTC price doubles every 4 years, then perhaps that is enough to have the subsidies to have the same effect, but we know adoption is going up too.. so usage and fees are likely to go up, as you project... so in the end ?  what is the punchline? 

Are you suggesting that something is supposed to be anticipated from this?  I am anticipating the BTC price to continue to go up.. and likely the halvening will continue to have effects for the next 10-20 years.. and sure maybe more, but can't we just adjust our theories as we go instead of trying to overly concretize whatever we believe is going to happen 20 years or more?  Does it matter very much?  We have some tentative ideas about what is going to happen, so what good does it do to attempt to get even more specific in regards to our wannabe sorcery in regards to the future?

Even with your forum registration date, maybe we could consider you as being close to a full cycle kind of guy, but still even if you had been fairly aggressively accumulating BTC for the last 4 years at $100 per week, you would have invested right around $21k, and you would have gotten around 1.11 BTC ($48,840)- which still is ONLY around less then 2.5x rise in value. or around 150% profits.. and with an asset like bitcoin, I have my doubts about the extent that it would be worth it to be cashing out any BTC - unless maybe you had happened to front load your investment, like I already mentioned...
The country where I live (Pakistan), 100$ per week (or 400$ per month) is not a small amount. Here average income is around 300$ per month.

There is no need to get too caught upon the particular amount that I used in the example

I try my best to accumulate as much as I can but investing 100$ per week is not in my reach TBH. If you are from developed country like USA where average income is 8000$ for such people investing 100$ in Bitcoin or any other asset is not a big deal.

Exactly, $100 a week is not a big deal in many parts of the western world, but people still don't regularly save into anything, and it is a stretch if they might save in a kind of 401k plan or perhaps save up for a house, yet many times, people in the west (including all people) would likely put themselves in a much better place by creating some kind of a modest bitcoin investment strategy, even if the amount that they invest might not be up to western standards, and perhaps they are struggling to put $10 to $50 per week into bitcoin, so whatever, the amounts do not matter as much as figuring out if you are even able to invest in the first place (which means that you are able to generate cashflows that exceed your expenses while maintaining some kind of an emergency fund that might be 3-6 months in advance, too).

Rest I do agree that there can be resistance at 50 or 55k rather with current dip we can inferior that Bitcoin has its first resistance at 44/43k before it make its way to 50k.

I don't know about whether the mere fact that the BTC price ended up correcting rather than getting above $45k would rise to the level of meaning that there was a lot of resistance at $45k rather than just difficulties that sometimes might exist for buyers to keep up when the BTC price keeps going up, then the buy demand has to be able to keep up with such upward movement of the price, so sure then we end up getting some kind of a BTC price correction.. which is barely into the 10% territory so far.. as OGNasty already mentioned.

But yeah, it still could be that we end up bouncing in a range that is from $35k to $55k for a while, and maybe we could try to hone in upon whether our new "don't wake me up zone" might end up fitting into these kinds of parameters, even though having $20k as the range does seem to be quite large - but part of the idea of "don't wake me up zone does become a kind of area in which the price movements within that area may well not be really BIG significances, but if we start to get to the edge of the zone (in either price direction), then it starts to get interesting about whether a break out might occur in one direction or the other.. and sure, if we move within the don't wake me up zone a lot, then that might also trigger a waking up even though maybe in the whole scheme of things it could be questionable whether waking up is justified as long as we are within the newly create don't wake me up zone.. if it might become reasonable to conceptualize such a zone and maybe tweak its boundaries a bit in order to attempt to take into account our current contextual realities.

mmh ok.. gox coins seem to be coming..

I hope I'm wrong but my guess is we go down to 35k at least, maybe testing 30k.  Bears have been slaughtered recently so they will cling to any fud they can.  Apart from an ETF denial, which is unlikely, this will be their last big chance.  

Again, I hope I'm wrong.  But on the other hand, a good shakeout has always been positive for a parabolic event afterwards.  And people are just a bit too bullish right now, imo.

What you are saying doesn't seem totally unreasonable, and so if $40k consitutes right around a 10% correction, then $35k would be a bit over a 22% correction, and $30k would constitute about a 33% correction.  So none of them seem totally unreasonable... Whether they are going to happen or not, might be another story.. I am not going to count on either of them happening, but I am also not going to be surprised if such things were to end up happening, either.. either down to $35k or even down to $30k.. they are just not givens.. but things that reasonably could end up happening.
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December 12, 2023, 06:16:39 AM
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Let us prey.... upon those who fail to hodl.

I guess Heaven BTC helps those who help themselves
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December 12, 2023, 06:32:17 AM
Last edit: December 12, 2023, 07:00:55 AM by bitebits

[...] I feel it's just a chance for you guys to buy more who missed the 15K, 20K, 25K, 30K and waited for more dip.

[...]


 Roll Eyes



It is time to get beyond MtGox for good, it gets a little old and annoying after 10+ years. So please forgive our sins holding coins on a playing cards exchange, and let's get it out of the way for a clean run to new ATH's.
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December 12, 2023, 08:51:10 AM
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I cannot remember your exact story in terms of your bitcoin entry date, AlcoHoDL.. but I was thinking that maybe you were only a couple of years after me...

[...]

August 2015 was my first transaction. Paid $120, got 0.5 BTC, left it in my phone, forgot about it. 3 months later it had become $200. I remember the market cap then was single-digit billions, maybe $5B (currently $800B -- 160x). I remember I was checking CoinMarketCap. Not even registered to BitcoinTalk. All purchases done via Bitcoin ATMs. No exchanges.

Great times...
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December 12, 2023, 09:22:02 AM

So basically I remember JJG fucking around and saying there is no 4 year cycle (at least 2 years ago)

Doesn't sound like the same JJG that I know.

<snip>


When I look at the reward to fee next 3  ½ ings if miners keep force fees to stay at 30 stats

10 percent fee per block   now
18 percent fee per block   2024
31 percent fee per block.  2028
47 percent fee per block   2032

what does all of the above mean for supply shock?
say

6.95000  now
3.82500  2024
2.26250  2028
1.48125  2032

if fees flatten out at .7 btc per block. the ½ effect ends  by 2036 or sooner if fees go to a steady 1 btc  a block

You come up with some doosies, sometimes... and yeah there are going to be changes in the ratios in which miners are more dependent upon fees rather than subsidies.. so yeah, each halvening we will see the extent to which the BTC price goes up which would be at least doubled ever four years for the halvening to have the same effect on the reward... so surely, it is difficult to predict that many legs in advance without necessarily knowing price, and if BTC price doubles every 4 years, then perhaps that is enough to have the subsidies to have the same effect, but we know adoption is going up too.. so usage and fees are likely to go up, as you project... so in the end ?  what is the punchline?  




[/quote]


<snip>

[/quote]



JJG we did

50         +  0.05 =   50.05
25         +  0.05 =   25.05       this looks like a real true ½ ing to me
12.5      +  0.10 =   12.60          "     "   "       "     "
6.25      +  0.70 =     6.95         "        "

3.125     + 0.70 =    3.825        this looks almost like  a ½ ing

1.5625   + 0.70 =    2.2625         this is not what any ½ ing has ever looked like      4 years and 4 months from now
0.78125 + 0.70 =    1.48125       this is certainly far different than anything we have seen in terms of ½ ing

So my point is do we see unexpected changes in 2024 a different cycle pattern

We will certainly see them in 2028 as the ½ ing will not really be one

2028 is not that far from today do other see this and plan to exit sooner than you predict? Or for that matter does this act to drive price up more than expected.

the 2024 to 2028 time slot is truly "different" than any prior as there will not be a supply drop of great significance.
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