Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

OT: A funny thought about a s-tcoin...imagine e--reum classic getting an ETF (because it is a POW commodity) before the VB coin.
VB and Jeff Lubin would faint...btw, markets think that it might be possible judging by the respective price action today.

[Biodom]

Bitcoin doesn't care about no TradFi. If you're already open to the idea of mid thirties than we're not that different. My estimate is somewhere between $25K to $35K.

Really...then why why make an ETF?
Today money flows:
bitcoin on exchanges: 61 bil
bitcoin on tradfi: 3.2 bil

So...currently 5% of the flows in btc are ETFs-driven.
This number will probably increase with time.

[OutOfMemory]

Of course, I know that bitcoin in 2017 and 2021 bull market had much greater local declines (30-40%), apart from even a higher % decline (~50%) in the middle of 2021.

2021's 50% decline was because of China banning Bitcoin (again), afair.
Sometimes, in silent moments, i imagine what BTC's ATH in 2021 could have been without that ChinaBan21. 

[AirtelBuzz]

$7 Trillion Vanguard Blocked
Clients buying bitcoins
Spot ETFS on their platform.

This is like market manipulation



>>> https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1745508060146090438?t=qSjyCsCSwCbB1adDNGkF8g&s=19

[goldkingcoiner]

Bear trap on the 4 hour chart. But you guys already know that

So, still no ETF trading, just yet?

[OgNasty]

Of course, I know that bitcoin in 2017 and 2021 bull market had much greater local declines (30-40%), apart from even a higher % decline (~50%) in the middle of 2021.

2021's 50% decline was because of China banning Bitcoin (again), afair.
Sometimes, in silent moments, i imagine what BTC's ATH in 2021 could have been without that ChinaBan21. 

I would say that decline came from FTX selling off customer BTC to pump shitcoins in an attempt to get investors at a massively overvalued valuation. I wouldn’t discount a pullback either way just because of where we’re at in the market cycle, but I wouldn’t compare it to 2021. If anything we are in the start of 2020 in the cycle.

[JayJuanGee]

Looks like a lift off is brewing...

I see that too. On one hand I don't expect BTC to break previous ATH until after halving. Although, even breaking 48k would be a nice touch.

On the other... how exciting would that be to break a new ATH even before the halving this bull run...  lots of "this is uncharted territory" posts if that happens.

I'd be OK with breaking and staying above $48-$49k until halvening too, but as we know from the past, FOMO will exaggerate a bit more than last cycle, so i also take higher prices  (pre Halvening) into account. No matter what, i'm hodling, though i do consider to set up some minor laddering sells for only the next three months above last ATH to buy back moar. In theory...

When I sell, I don't expect to buy back, even though it does seem to end up happening, but the underlying assumption of the sell is to not necessarily be able to buy back, but if the price ends up going down to some pre-established buy back number, then I would buy back, but otherwise, for me, there is no assumption of any ability to buy back.  Are we saying the same thing?  I am not sure.  Because you said "to buy back in theory".. which seems to presume that you are not necessarily expecting that you would be able to buy back, but you are selling at such a high price and in such small quantities that it would not matter to you either way.. so maybe we are kind of saying/doing the same thing, but just phrasing the proposition a wee bit differently..

[dragonvslinux]

Bitcoin doesn't care about no TradFi. If you're already open to the idea of mid thirties than we're not that different. My estimate is somewhere between $25K to $35K.

Really...then why why make an ETF?

Because TradFi cares about Bitcoin, clearly. Not to be confused or conflated with the alternative scenario. Bitcoin has quite clearly demonstrated today with a -5% drop post-launch: it doesn't care for TradFi. Or even arguably, TradFi doesn't care for Bitcoin yet. Either way you slice it, I stand by my original statement that appears correct as of writing: Bitcoin doesn't care about no TradFi.

Today money flows:
bitcoin on exchanges: 61 bil
bitcoin on tradfi: 3.2 bil

So...currently 5% of the flows in btc are ETFs-driven.

Exactly. It's currently a drop in the ocean. As predicted by much of the media, it's barely relevant, much like when Bitcoin Futures initially launched. The interest was almost non-existent.

For reference inflows were never expected to be that high initially, regardless of current price being high or low. Asset managers and institutions were always going to sit on the sidelines and engage in a more "wait and see" approach, as a form of basic risk management rather than FOMO into such an offering, such as waiting for price stability over a period of months.

This number will probably increase with time.

This I don't doubt, but until it does, I wouldn't describe Bitcoin as TradFi, only aspiring to be as such. There is still a long way to go, these concepts don't happen overnight or with a flick of a "ETF" switch.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cAPSLOCK]

Long time no post. Came to see if anyone else was selling this news event, guess I'm not the only one. Felt comfortable with a decent sell at $48K. Now will wait for pull-back. Still think we could see $30K within next few months as below $40K there isn't a lot to keep us at higher levels. No doubt ETF will help in the long-run, but that will take a few months imo, rather than a few weeks.

Already the 4hr candle is looking bearish and sellers clearly taking advantage of the "sell the launch" opportunity. Let's be honest 2023 was a good year with +150%, now all that's needed is for price to cool off and balance out. It's ironic as $48.5K was the 0.618 retracement level I had talked about hitting for a long-time, even if it took until 2024 to get there as opposed to 2023 as initially anticipated.

You can consider my return and post as a local top signal 

If I was a trader I'd like to think I would sell a little today.  Might put some of that into a leveraged hedge though in case I was wrong more quickly than I could recover from.  That said, I am not a trader.

[AlcoHoDL]

I read ETFs would help reduce Bitcoin volatility.

I see it's working already...

Just joking, obviously, I know it's too early. I'm thinking that maybe it's time to stop watching charts, go full RL and come back in a month or two.

But who can resist?

[OutOfMemory]

Of course, I know that bitcoin in 2017 and 2021 bull market had much greater local declines (30-40%), apart from even a higher % decline (~50%) in the middle of 2021.

2021's 50% decline was because of China banning Bitcoin (again), afair.
Sometimes, in silent moments, i imagine what BTC's ATH in 2021 could have been without that ChinaBan21. 

I would say that decline came from FTX selling off customer BTC to pump shitcoins in an attempt to get investors at a massively overvalued valuation. I wouldn’t discount a pullback either way just because of where we’re at in the market cycle, but I wouldn’t compare it to 2021. If anything we are in the start of 2020 in the cycle.

I agree to that 2020 market cycle analogy.
IMO the second 2021 crash, starting the previous bear market cycle was premature due to FTX sellings. Maybe FTX and China accumulated their bearish momentum in the mid bullrun crash? However, i got no solid information on FTX '21 activities, i mostly ignored them after they bought my favorite chart monitoring app and slowly ruined it. I don't even remember the name, but it was OK for my personal preferences.

I'd be OK with breaking and staying above $48-$49k until halvening too, but as we know from the past, FOMO will exaggerate a bit more than last cycle, so i also take higher prices  (pre Halvening) into account. No matter what, i'm hodling, though i do consider to set up some minor laddering sells for only the next three months above last ATH to buy back moar. In theory...

When I sell, I don't expect to buy back, even though it does seem to end up happening, but the underlying assumption of the sell is to not necessarily be able to buy back, but if the price ends up going down to some pre-established buy back number, then I would buy back, but otherwise, for me, there is no assumption of any ability to buy back.  Are we saying the same thing?  I am not sure.  Because you said "to buy back in theory".. which seems to presume that you are not necessarily expecting that you would be able to buy back, but you are selling at such a high price and in such small quantities that it would not matter to you either way.. so maybe we are kind of saying/doing the same thing, but just phrasing the proposition a wee bit differently..

Well, as i joined in pretty late in terms of Bitcoin history, in 2017, though being interested in BTC since 2013, i am still trying to accelerate accumulation through small scale sell high/buy low activities. In the past i was behaving relatively conservative, regarding this strategy, but it would have turned out well - in theory - so i didn't actually take some (most) opportunities, being cautious not to having to buy back at a higher price. After almost two full cycles i got more self esteem to actually set up some positions to make moar - at least a little. Sure, in the longer run, selling in the ups and buying in the downs of the cycles would be safer, as long as we don't run into a S-curve. It's a kind of in between plan i tried to figure out over the last years, maybe risking a single digit percentage of my Bitcoin holdings, no biggie.

[Toxic2040]

[cAPSLOCK]

Exactly. It's currently a drop in the ocean. As predicted by much of the media, it's barely relevant, much like when Bitcoin Futures initially launched. The interest was almost non-existent.

I am seeing some data that contradicts this.  Like the fact the Bitcoin ETFs pulled in over 1.2Billion in the first 30 minutes of trading.  This is nothing like the futures launch.  At least not yet.  I suppose if the inflow stops there it could cool down?

And:

https://twitter.com/JoeConsorti/status/1745527450358989212

[cAPSLOCK]

I'm thinking that maybe it's time to stop watching charts, go full RL and come back in a month or two.

You are absolutely correct.  That would be wise and probably support one's mental health.

But who can resist?

Not I.

[AlcoHoDL]

There's still time...


[Link @ X]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

Exactly. It's currently a drop in the ocean. As predicted by much of the media, it's barely relevant, much like when Bitcoin Futures initially launched. The interest was almost non-existent.

I am seeing some data that contradicts this.  Like the fact the Bitcoin ETFs pulled in over 1.2Billion in the first 30 minutes of trading.  This is nothing like the futures launch.  At least not yet.  I suppose if the inflow stops there it could cool down?

And:

https://twitter.com/JoeConsorti/status/1745527450358989212

Indeed it was a spectacular launch. There are rumors that known large Bitcoin holders are being contacted and asked if they’ll sell their BTC at a large premium in order to meet demand. Apparently there’s a lot of BTC that needs to be purchased with the money brought in from these funds. I’m no expert in how it all works (yet) but if true we could have a genuine supply squeeze on our hands in as soon as an hour. My advice is to not sell your BTC to Wall Street until it can change your life.

https://x.com/bradmillscan/status/1745515552234184775

[dragonvslinux]

Exactly. It's currently a drop in the ocean. As predicted by much of the media, it's barely relevant, much like when Bitcoin Futures initially launched. The interest was almost non-existent.

I am seeing some data that contradicts this.  Like the fact the Bitcoin ETFs pulled in over 1.2Billion in the first 30 minutes of trading.  This is nothing like the futures launch.  At least not yet.  I suppose if the inflow stops there it could cool down?

And:

https://twitter.com/JoeConsorti/status/1745527450358989212

Ok, maybe nothing like futures launch back in 2017, but also potentially proportionate based on market cap? Even so, I wouldn't rely too much solely on new tickers and the volume appearing quite yet...

I need to have a proper analysis of these Bitcoin tickers in general, from new ETFs to old products, because one thing I have noticed today is the bearish spike in selling volume for the likes of BTC1!, BITO and BITS (more so than BTC), which suggests to me that those speculating on Bitcoin's price rise into the ETF were doing so not only on the spot market but also on older products, ETNs and futures I'm assuming.

If I had to guess, Wall St are playing each other with older products being used to dump on newer products. At least that's the initial impression I'm getting. Also what happened to the "normality" of simply expecting/waiting for a 50% drop once new products are listed? This is like the defacto move for Wall St; wait for the -50%, then buy in. It explains a lot of previous Bitcoin-based launches as well.

Ie maybe this is less about Bitcoin correcting the usual 30%-50% after a parabolic move, and more about new launches on stock exchanges dropping 50% before going anywhere relevant. Just a thought. Let's not forget the amount of money invested in Bitcoin futures right now, because no doubt a lot of futures speculation was based on a future ETF that has now been launched. Again, just food for thought here.