Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitmover]

I just want to mention, if you haven't seen it yet, you should check out FeeBuddy in the Mempool Observer Topic. Its a cool bot created by bitmover:

     

• fastestFee: 66 sat/vB
• halfHourFee: 61 sat/vB
• hourFee: 56 sat/vB
• economyFee: 48 sat/vB
• minimumFee: 24 sat/vB

It posts once every 6 hours with the current fee estimates. I keep track of new posts by visiting "Show unread replies..", so you know, reply once in the topic and you'll always see it when it updates. Or of course add it to your Watchlist if you want (does anyone actually use that?).

Thanks for mentioning

I created this bot inspired by ChartBuddy!

I just added a new function to him. He is now going to post a chart of the last 3 days fees. This will come up in the next post!

[OgNasty]

The market seems to have found a price it’s happy with at the moment. We’ll have to wait for the ETF to scoop up all the free floating BTC and start hitting up public markets before another big move. It’s anyone’s guess how long that will take, but after this week we should have a little better idea about the ongoing demand.

[Biodom]

And Bitcoin has bounced back
Stay above 42900 and up up we go.
50K before next week runs out.

Obviously, i close my eyes and i see Bitcoin already at 50k before the week runs out. Does anyone here doubt my speculation? i can bet on this lol . Even the parliament and judges of the circle cannot stop it from happening .

Humble respect to them

With GBTC fees 130basis points over their direct competitors, there's really no good reason for anyone to be with them, so looks like they've accepted their fate and just milking people as they exit. But they still have $26B AUM so it might take longer than a week for them to unwind.

You keep repeating this over and over...hoping that one day it would be correct?

If somebody sold GBTC on day one and immediately transferred to, say, ibit without knowing how well it will track or where it stands vs NAV, they lost 10-15%, which corresponds to GBTC fees in a DECADE or so.

I just hope it wasn't someone here  

Would be interesting to see where you're getting those numbers at? Haven't figured out a good way to track live price to NAV, but on the second day when GBTC had $484,1MM outflows Bloomberg put their discount to -117 to IBITs premium of +16 basis points. So actually, GBTC is the only outlier on the tracking! Since all current ETFs are cash creation/redemption GBTC had to sell those BTC, such amounts would cause slippage thus the discount.

GBTC had a ~5% discount from the get go and ibit started from about 10% premium, check the first day: GBTC lost 5%, ibit about 10%...so, flipping GBTC to ibit resulted in an immediate haircut. Now, that GBTC discount is "only" 1.17%, feel free to flip... I do feel that freedom now
EDIT: I calculate current discount to NAV as 0.4% in GBTC.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

Buddy finally surpassed philipma1957.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats

yeah its done.

F

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

The market seems to have found a price it’s happy with at the moment. We’ll have to wait for the ETF to scoop up all the free floating BTC and start hitting up public markets before another big move. It’s anyone’s guess how long that will take, but after this week we should have a little better idea about the ongoing demand.

Gold ETF had 9 mo of "chop" to a small down.
I'll give btc ETF half a time, which "coincidentally" would be at around halving  
We could see a pop just prior a la May-June 2016 (it was a $439 to $763 "pop" back then or 74%).
I am not predicting the same %, but it could "rhyme".

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

Looking at this image, I can't help but wonder...

Why TF does a robot need teeth?

[Hueristic]

[...]

Looking at this image, I can't help but wonder...

Why TF does a robot need teeth?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DysVqI9zTEA

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

[...]

Looking at this image, I can't help but wonder...

Why TF does a robot need teeth?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DysVqI9zTEA

 Oh!  Right... the teeth support the nose which in turn supports the cool shades.
Also, I think these terminator robots were supposed to "blend in" while indiscriminately blowing away anything that gets in the was of their objective(s).

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

Looking at this image, I can't help but wonder...

Why TF does a robot need teeth?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DysVqI9zTEA

Oh yes, Terminator, I forgot... It just looks so odd... The only human-looking part remaining...

[xhomerx10]

[...]

Looking at this image, I can't help but wonder...

Why TF does a robot need teeth?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DysVqI9zTEA

Oh yes, Terminator, I forgot... It just looks so odd... The only human-looking part remaining...

 I'll refresh your memory -



  

 edit: oops.  Wrong gif.  It was this one:

 I have far too many Arnold gifs.

[Hueristic]

[...]

Looking at this image, I can't help but wonder...

Why TF does a robot need teeth?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DysVqI9zTEA

 Oh!  Right... the teeth support the nose which in turn supports the cool shades.
Also, I think these terminator robots were supposed to "blend in" while indiscriminately blowing away anything that gets in the was of their objective(s).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqW6AkTFYQA

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

Looking at this image, I can't help but wonder...

Why TF does a robot need teeth?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DysVqI9zTEA

Oh yes, Terminator, I forgot... It just looks so odd... The only human-looking part remaining...

 I'll refresh your memory -



  

 edit: oops.  Wrong gif.  It was this one:

 I have far too many Arnold gifs.

LOL, yes! I remember that line, and also the famous "I'll be back." That movie was so cool to watch at the time it came out (early 90s?), and even today actually.

[OgNasty]

Buddy finally surpassed philipma1957.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats

yeah its done.

Sad times.  We do all respect the effort that you put in, but alas man is no match for machine.  Let us all just agree that the content of your posts is much more valuable than our little Buddy friend.  Not to mention I'm sure you've mined more BTC...  Nevertheless, this is the end of an era for our friend Phil.  Unless, someone can go back and find some back to back posts by Buddy to report...  Maybe it's not over yet?  Summon the forum Karens!

[True Myth]

The market seems to have found a price it’s happy with at the moment. We’ll have to wait for the ETF to scoop up all the free floating BTC and start hitting up public markets before another big move. It’s anyone’s guess how long that will take, but after this week we should have a little better idea about the ongoing demand.

Gold ETF had 9 mo of "chop" to a small down.
I'll give btc ETF half a time, which "coincidentally" would be at around halving  
We could see a pop just prior a la May-June 2016 (it was a $439 to $763 "pop" back then or 74%).
I am not predicting the same %, but it could "rhyme".

I think one of the major differences with gold vs BTC is that everyone is aware of the halving and it's effect on supply and spot price.  I think anyone looking at buying an ETF will want to get the most bang for their buck when the price finally stabilizes (looks like we are getting close to stable price again).

Then again, they may also want to see the buy action increase before diving in...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

This is pretty close to how I think it’ll play out.
Exciting times ahead.
HODL.
@StockmoneyL
We have posted this
BTC roadmap for this cycle on 31st Dec 2023.

So far, it all looks like it's going according to plan:
1. Bullish momentum until ETF decision
2. Expected volatility and a possible correction in January
3. New ATH in 2024 after Halving (driven by mass adoption)
4. Based on past cycles a new ATH in Q3-4 2025
We have taken into account macroeconomic factors as well (recession, inflation). However, this is ultimately not a bad thing for Bitcoin.
More and more people see (and will see once it's mass adopted) Btc as "digital gold" and an inflation proof asset that is a store of value in bad economic times. Therefore we do not believe that the current bull rund is about to end soon.

Many catalysts on the way are likely to further boost this bull run.

Our own opinion. Not financial advice. Feel free to disagree

https://x.com/stockmoneyl/status/1746967395510407458

Well, first it's kind of left-translated a bit, but then, a canonical cycle ending.
If it would accelerate as it is shown on a pic into early 2025, I might take a sliver off then...just to make sure  

You seem to keep changing your plan in regards to the various places that you are considering shaving some off.  I mean, I heard you say you would be shaving off around the $50ks and then in the mid $100ks and then this one seems to be in the $200ks ..but I suppose it could be the mid to upper $100ks... you just seem to be nervous about places in which you might take some off.. and maybe that is the dilemma with just having 20 BTC.. .but 20 is almost enough, no?  I am currently using 20.5 in my current hypothetical of sustained withdrawal, and that is presuming to have had started with a budget of 21 BTC in late 2022.

I share with all of you some predictions of forum members talking about the price of BTC in mid year, after the Halving, seems like the vast mayority were not super euphoric.

As far as i can see in a very rapid way, the mayority is not super bullish for this first half of the year. Only Dany went nut and put a 91.000.

This comes from my contest. Im gonna organized something in mid year so keep on track, maybe some related to NBA so the people from USA suits better.

With something like that sorting from highest to lowest (or even from lowest to highest) would be better than the seemingly quasi-random presentation that  you have in that chart.

The market seems to have found a price it’s happy with at the moment. We’ll have to wait for the ETF to scoop up all the free floating BTC and start hitting up public markets before another big move. It’s anyone’s guess how long that will take, but after this week we should have a little better idea about the ongoing demand.

Gold ETF had 9 mo of "chop" to a small down.
I'll give btc ETF half a time, which "coincidentally" would be at around halving  
We could see a pop just prior a la May-June 2016 (it was a $439 to $763 "pop" back then or 74%).
I am not predicting the same %, but it could "rhyme".

That is a funny thing about history and even trying to match up patterns within a four-year fractal.  It is not easy to get any kind of close match up, since each of the cycles have  some characteristics that make them somewhat different, and it is not just a matter of the degree of the pump or the degree of the correction, yet also perhaps some historical factors (things going on at the time / explanations) that somewhat contributed to the then performance pattern, and surely the kinds of things going on now are different in ways that we did not have that were comparable. maybe in terms of reasons for upwards price pressures..

And then gold does have some comparable aspects to bitcoin, but there are so many ways that bitcoin is different from gold too (and superior to gold too -  approximately 1,000x superior give or take)... both in terms of bitcoin's lack of maturity, but then also in terms of its non-physicality, and surely bitcoin is the soundest money ever to have been invented/discovered while at the same time, so many people still do not realize such at thing to be true..

At the same time, several of the ETF providers are broadcasting and marketing these kinds of bitcoin ideas (as if they actually get it), and bitcoin had not really previously had marketers that go beyond just a bunch of us non-credible plebs voluntarily doing such sporadic bragging about all of the great things about bitcoin rather than professional marketers wanting to sell (pump) their "world-changing" products - while also pumping bitcoin.

[philipma1957]

Buddy finally surpassed philipma1957.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats

yeah its done.

Sad times.  We do all respect the effort that you put in, but alas man is no match for machine.  Let us all just agree that the content of your posts is much more valuable than our little Buddy friend.  Not to mention I'm sure you've mined more BTC...  Nevertheless, this is the end of an era for our friend Phil.  Unless, someone can go back and find some back to back posts by Buddy to report...  Maybe it's not over yet?  Summon the forum Karens!

Does not matter. The forum software was never updated as his post count is completely not necessary.  

Also allowing him to do dupe posts.