Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JSRAW]

I noticed this very late but the Lord of the Words vs Platinum Balls aka Ranch Dude wasn't on my 2024 list, at least not outside WO.

[BitcoinBunny]

First Women's Bitcoin DADA

meeting in Uganda

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

buddy is closing in on 44,444

btc is allowing you a shot to buy some.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Toxic2040]

good morning

ETF post dumpening report?

kinda... also a list of general fuckups going on around the World, recent and ongoing

most fingers are pointing towards Grayscale and peeps selling at a realised loss
some 2.3 billy apparently..

also shouldering some blame is the FTX bankruptcy 'estate' which has been selling into the news

other macro economic factors could be the elections in Taiwan that just wrapped up with the DPP winning for a 3rd consecutive time
the current VP Lai Ching-te winning with 40% of the popular vote

continued strikes by US led forces in the Red Sea against Houthi rebels

continued war in Gaza between the IDF and Hamas

continued war in Ukraine against Russia

the start of general elections kicking off at the US Iowa caucuses next week


-----------------



oof....and thats just a couple of minutes of skimming headlines

never forget that they try to control you with fear

some thoughts for considering

...you are unique

out of 100+ billion examples of our species that have EVER lived, only you are you
i find that thought somehow incredibly empowering
on that same tact....I am blown away that out of all those billions of souls... I am alive TODAY and witnessing the pinnacle of human evolution and achievement
despite all the bullshit

humbled and incredibly grateful i am

----------------

dyor

4h



D

stronghands

[DaRude]

I set my buys a bit too low oh well

40,404
39,398

Maybe we get these.

Maybe not.

There's this theory by British Hodl that the big buyers are on the sidelines with a few billions waiting for GBTC to bleed out completely. The commission is 1.5% yearly, while the new ETFs have undercut each other and the cheapest of the lot are at 0.15% - one tenth of GBTC's management fee. So GBTC customers will get out of there to get in some cheaper ETF. The buyers are just waiting for this wave of sell orders to reach a price bottom.

Here's the British Hodl guy explaining this in 17 minutes on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=reELJVofC3I

A thank you goes to @cAPSLOCK for pointing me to it.

Who's at 0,15%? Cheapest that i know of is Franklin EZBC at 0,19%
Looks like GBTC had to sell another ~2.000BTC on the 12th or another day of -$88MM outflows, don't have inflow data for the 12th for other ETFs, anyone has a convenient source? There's still over 617k BTC in GBTC hopefully after first week majority would wash trade into other ETFs to save on the fees.

Some of the new ETFs have waived their fees down to 0% with either a temporal horizon (Come in! First year free!) or a capitalization threshold (Come in! Free until we reach x billions). The linked video details some of them.

Right, i was ignoring the 0% teaser rates. Also, it appears that i was wrong and Bloomberg showing -$484,1MM outflow from GBTC on the second day or about 11k BTC liquidated from GBTC in one day!  looks like they're still missing data from some ETF but they're putting day2 total ETF flow at $193,1MM , then there was outflows from futures ETF BITO and i'm sure from proxies and miners as well.

https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1746145426229669972

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[fillippone]

Would be a shame if we had a weekend pump and introduce Wallstreet to an asset that trades 24/7 outside of their own control exchanges. Next Monday the NASDAQ and NYSE are closed, adding to the FOMO.

I feel bad for them.
Only allowed to trade on limited time windows.
This is not a problem for the hodler, it is a problem for the investor trader gambler.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[roksana.hee]

just had a buy pop at ~41.5k


this ETF stuff is like the most awesomest thingie ever..

I set my buys a bit too low oh well

40,404
39,398

Maybe we get these.

Maybe not.

There's this theory by British Hodl that the big buyers are on the sidelines with a few billions waiting for GBTC to bleed out completely. The commission is 1.5% yearly, while the new ETFs have undercut each other and the cheapest of the lot are at 0.15% - one tenth of GBTC's management fee. So GBTC customers will get out of there to get in some cheaper ETF. The buyers are just waiting for this wave of sell orders to reach a price bottom.

Here's the British Hodl guy explaining this in 17 minutes on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=reELJVofC3I

A thank you goes to @cAPSLOCK for pointing me to it.

Who's at 0,15%? Cheapest that i know of is Franklin EZBC at 0,19%
Looks like GBTC had to sell another ~2.000BTC on the 12th or another day of -$88MM outflows, don't have inflow data for the 12th for other ETFs, anyone has a convenient source? There's still over 617k BTC in GBTC hopefully after first week majority would wash trade into other ETFs to save on the fees.

EDIT: Bloomberg is showing -$484,1MM outflow from GBTC on day2 so around -11k coins with inflows to other ETFs staying almost the same as day1

Certain newly introduced ETFs have chosen to waive their fees down to 0%, employing either a time-limited strategy or contingent on reaching a specified capitalization threshold.



It's optimistic to see that the price of Bitcoin is hodling 1 million in this year. Best wishes for the upcoming future. I hope within a few years the the world will be the followers of Bitcoin ligally.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[darkangel11]

Well this would explain the high selling in past few days, the only issue I have is that this sell-off has bled into Bitstamp and other major exchanges, currently making it the highest selling volume on 3D chart since November 2022 capitulation. While that was the low in the market, this sell-off has come from a top in the market, and end of week will be a massive bearish gravestone doji if price closes below $44K.

I understand the concept of it being a bear trap, as price could reverse back to the upside when the selling subsides, however part of me feels like the damage has already been done long-term. That of printing an incredibly bearish red candle, given it's the first time in over a year where there is a strong bearish signal - the whole of 2023 never had a realistic bearish signal, only dips and a bit of FUD here and there.

I think short-term likely this will be a bear trap, similar to June 2019, where there was the massive gravestone doji with a -20% wick, and price pumped back to retest resistance over the next two weeks.

Always in the back of my mind is that price has moved from $30K to $48K with zero dips testing support. This means price can return to $30K with ease, as there was no support created on the way up.

If you're a bit worried it's normal because, as you said, this was a big capitulation event. There's a chart showing how many people sell at a loss, you can google it and it shows that this event was one of the 4 largest in the last 3 years which means Wall Street screwed people who were waiting to make a quick buck on the ETF decision.

A lot of newcomers gambled on this. I'm talking about people who never owned any bitcoin and bought some thinking that they're going to make a simple bet. Bloomberg said there's 90% for approval, so they thought they'll have 90% chance to make money. If the world said that there's going to be a dump when ETF gets rejected and it pumped on fake news and then dumped, it's obvious what's going to happen when the real approval or rejection comes. 90% approval chance - 90% people went long. There was an approval, price started pumping, longs started coming in at 46k and all aimed for at least 50k test. All these people who put their bets there got liquidated.

How did Wall Street rape them? ETF companies made a deal with Coinbase to buy OTC using their VIP program, but GBTC used spot price to sell. IMO this was planned to lower the price for institutions coming in. When you want to buy 10k bitcoin getting a spot price lower by $1k leaves a lot of money in your pocket.

Want some silver lining? OTC buyers agree on the price before the buy and they pay premium. They were buying in the middle of this dump, mostly on Friday, and willing to get more than a billion dollars worth of bitcoin at around 45k. They aren't doing it because they think it's not going back above that level. Also, due to the holiday, Grayscale is yet to buy bitcoin for people who wanted to convert GBTC into ETF and will do that next week, unless the plan is to sell spot and buy back OTC like a professional villain

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Ambatman]

The approval sure was anti climatic. The hype felt like a rocket now we riding a car 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[macson]

The approval sure was anti climatic. The hype felt like a rocket now we riding a car 

The ETF hype is of course a manipulated thing, who knows what they want to make fake BTC

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

OT: ChatGPT is becoming "lazy".

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/12/chatgpt-problems-lazy

I wonder: if in response to a prompt it would say: "make me"...would it mean that it is finally conscious...with a attitude of a teenager?

...it probably calculates an incredibly elaborate scheme of trading all 11 bitcoin ETFs vs bitcoin in a way that every single chain of trades results in the guaranteed profit.
Knowing the price and the NAV of all 11+btc, it is probably possible to do in real time.

[psycodad]

OT: ChatGPT is becoming "lazy".

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/12/chatgpt-problems-lazy

I wonder: if in response to a prompt it would say: "make me"...would it mean that it is finally conscious...with a attitude of a teenager?

...it probably calculates an incredibly elaborate scheme of trading all 11 bitcoin ETFs vs bitcoin in a way that every single chain of trades results in the guaranteed profit.
Knowing the price and the NAV of all 11+btc, it is probably possible to do in real time.

Nice read, thanks for the link.

..
With everything going on in the world, I wouldn’t particularly mind if computers took over.
I’m pretty sure my MacBook would do a better job of running the country than most people currently in government.
..

While that sounds like a good pun (and I chuckled quite a bit while reading), we all know its true for most if not all of the world nowadays.
IMO, no need for a MacBook though, a ZX81 might be perfectly sufficient to outsmart most governments.