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Question: What happens next?
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21435250 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (129 posts by 23 users deleted.)
spooderman
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February 12, 2014, 09:09:34 PM
 #87141

The tesla is the bitcoin of the auto industry Smiley
The Bitcoin Forum is turning 10 years old! Join the community in sharing and exploring the notable posts made over the years.
solex
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February 12, 2014, 09:10:08 PM
 #87142

square root (Cycle High / Cycle Low) * Cycle Low

666.716 =  sqrt (1163 / 382.21) * 382.21

That could be more simply stated as sqrt (Cycle High*Cycle Low), that is, the geometric mean. Very nice. It seems it was around 115 in the earlier bear market, so we seem to be in an equivalent to June last year. Stable, but in need of shaking the last weak hands.

Yes indeed, of course. And I did notice that after the April peak it steadily became the "new normal" until the fundamentals ramped up markedly in November.
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February 12, 2014, 09:19:09 PM
 #87143

I think someone is trying to keep it at 666 for fun. Evil!
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February 12, 2014, 09:27:24 PM
 #87144


The debt ceiling was an issue around this time last year but was pushed back to be dealt with in the fall. There is no pushing back this year. The ceiling will be raised soon.
I know that  Grin Asking about what it did to Bitcoin.
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February 12, 2014, 09:32:07 PM
 #87145

Anybody watched this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ziqOxLNfOc

He claims to have worked on Internet currencies for twenty years and with Tim Berners-Lee.

To sum up he says

Myth 1 Bitcoin is inevitable

Myth 2 Bitcoin is anonymous

Myth 3 Bitcoin is "government proof"

Myth 4 Bitcoin is legal

Myth 5 Volatility does not matter

jesus...

Myth 1 Bitcoin is inevitable = Give that man a medal!

Myth 2 Bitcoin is anonymous = Really I could have sworn that it was, a 20 year old told me so, and of course I listen to everything that a 20yr old tells me, and they are the only ones that know about Bitcoin

Myth 3 Bitcoin is "government proof" = Does it need to be? let's wait and see on that one. (that discussion coudl go on for days!)

Myth 4 Bitcoin is legal = Bitcoin is not illegal, at least not anywhere where people are "free"  Let's wait and see on this one too.
 
Myth 5 Volatility does not matter = Nor does it matter much yet, and if Bitcoin does manage to stay around and grow, then the volatility will go down... again, looking at things as they stand today, without taking into account how things will change as it grows, if it does manage to stay around.. but then in the same breath tells us that if Bitcoin grows it will use as much energy as Germany, so he accepts that it could grow, and that it will (in his model) use all this energy, but does not accept that growth would also have meant government acceptance and clear legislation, nor that an increase in adoption and therefore volume and the advent of more established exchanges would provide greater liquidity and therefore less volatility

 
"when I talk to Bitcoin supporters , when I ask questions I do not get answers I get "why are you asking questions, why are you being so negative"
"when I talk to these 20 years olds who are into Bitcoin"

Maybe he is asking the wrong people? I wonder where he takes advice on his love life from..

I do not even know any Bitcoiners in their 20's tbh none at all, they are all 35 +

Also I do not think that having a currency that "bypasses" government means that all government should or needs to be removed, that is bad logic.. you can have a government and a crypto currency that is not linked to the government, and still have a government, they are two different things..  So it is the intentional dishonesty and simple logic mistakes that he displays in this and other arguments that makes me doubt everything that he says...

According to this guy, the only people that have confidence in Bitcoin are 20 years old, and that not one of them would listen to any cogent argument and he has spoken to all of them.  

I wonder if he was in a room person to person with all of us lot, if he would have the same kind of style to his communication, or if he would talk like a normal person, rather than like he is talking down to a room full of stupids.

For a guy with so much smarts... he makes a lot of simplifications and mistakes... blindly so... maybe he is smart enough to understand, but maybe he has to much emotional baggage, he seems to be very caught up in the past.

Bitcoin will be using as much power as Germany... based on? and I imagine projected into a future where nothing changes apart from the electricity used but everything else is based on today's(or even yesterdays) stats?  I wonder how long this guy thought it would take to decode the human genome after 3 years in, things change.

Also when was the last time we had a "good government" doing "good things" that did give this guy feeling of warm fuzziness?

No real surprise that he sees no reason why we should change the banking system or the way government works...  "I went to oxford and studied
computer science"  blah blah .. yup Oxford, Cambridge, Harvard, Yale , much much good has come from these places no doubt...lots of very smart good decent down to earth intelligent great people, but also pretty much every douche bag that works for Goldman,Morgan, FED etc etc came from those same places too... most of them born with a silver spoon in their mouths and most of them (not all) are totally clueless about the world outside of their little isolated circle - and are the LAST people I would listen to when they try to tell me "what the rest of the population thinks too"  and which population does he mean? is he speaking for the population of Iceland, Cyprus, or even the population of Russia, China, India,  I think he is speaking for his rather small "population" and I do not even mean a country.

Going to carry on listening to see if he has any good points for sure... but already I dislike his style

Ok just got to him "debunking"  "Bitcoin is anonymous"  ffs...  I am struggling not to press stop at this point...  

And now "we do not know Satoshi is" how can we trust Bitcoin?  

omg...  yeah that degree at oxford did not do this guy much good in the common sense department.

Now the guy is saying that Bitcoin is a brilliant bit of tech, just not defo 100% the future-  the first sensible thing he has said
oh and that the international payment system is a joke... another hit for the guy.

Now talking about e-gold - this guy is showing he is out of the loop... maybe he should have a chat with Ben Lawsky..
Bitcoin is not e-gold... and we are not back then... we are here now in 2014 and things have changed, we have moved on from e-gold in so so many ways...both the tech, the system, the current political and legal attitude and environment,  something that this guy seems to ignore.. and again and again he is very very selective with his arguments... and clearly 100% entrenched in his way of thinking ... I think he will die with the same idea and beliefs he has today.

God now he is talking about how great the USD is , and because it is backed by the government... not one mention , not one about the huge debt, the dwindling purchasing power of the USD, the fact that the whole world is gently playing pass the parcel with USD, that more and more countries are trying to get away from and have less and less trust in the usd petro dollar. Not one mention about how actually Bitcoin and USD could live side by side, nope, in his world it is one or the other, a 20 year old told him so.. By the way I am not bashing the USD but claiming all is fine in the USD world is as false as claiming Bitcoin is 1000% inevitable

Nitro ice cream..and child porn ... and from there to Mt Gox... and from there onto Bitcoin would not survive if Mt Gox goes down.

meh... I am going to struggle through part two and see what else he has to say.... but thus far for a man with all of these supposed smarts
he has not actually said anything very enlightening or new, or actually that smart..in fact either by mistake or not he makes some very glaring over simplifications, if not outright BS, he speaks well, and is obviously a smart guy, but is also a little bit of a dinosaur (or maybe has an agenda)
which is a bit of a surprise...


this video...

10 seconds in, I realized it was about this guys Fear Uncertainty and Doubts (FUD!) surrounding bitcoin and i closed it.

i've heard it all b4, and any and all these arguments are easily dismissed...

the truth is we have a system here we can all agree on.

I myself only really learned about exactly how the most widely used system "FAIT" truly works AFTER learning about how the bitcoin system works

I find the FIAT system completely ridiculous compared with to Bitcoin system.

theres nothing this guy can say to change that.

Bitcoin is evaluation, its a force of nature, its unstoppable.

sure they can suppress it, drive it underground, and what not, but the truth will resonate, and the truth is, bitcoin is better in every way.

if only poeple could truly understand the simplicity of the bitcoin system, ( at its core bitcoin protocol is quite simple.... ) they would understand the huge leap forward Bitcoin represents


someone asked me once " ya i heard about it, but i don't understand what the point is? "

the point is extremely simple....

money is just a system with rules which we all agree on, and choose to collectively believe the imaginary units in this system have value, and now, I no longer agree to believe in a system the majority blindly believes, and thanks to bitcoin i don't have to.
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February 12, 2014, 09:35:27 PM
 #87146

money is just a system with rules which we all agree on, and choose to collectively believe the imaginary units in this system have value, and now, I no longer agree to believe in a system the majority blindly believes, and thanks to bitcoin i don't have to.

+1
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February 12, 2014, 09:38:59 PM
 #87147

consumers will be made to pay at the pump (charging station). Guaranteed.

Of course, except now one's pump can be at home. After materials it is free-ish. I suppose it's only fair to include the cost to replace batteries (if used), panels, etc. in one's own solar charger at whatever interval required. This is the "ish" part. Maybe $2000 every 20 years...? $100 a year?

By comparison it is a rare individual who has his own oil rig and gas refinery in his backyard producing free-ish energy for himself.
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February 12, 2014, 09:40:24 PM
 #87148

podyx
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February 12, 2014, 09:43:11 PM
 #87149



santa is coming with $260 coins?? NICE!  Grin
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February 12, 2014, 09:44:44 PM
 #87150

Anybody watched this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ziqOxLNfOc

He claims to have worked on Internet currencies for twenty years and with Tim Berners-Lee.


the point is extremely simple....

money is just a system with rules which we all agree on, and choose to collectively believe the imaginary units in this system have value, and now, I no longer agree to believe in a system the majority blindly believes, and thanks to bitcoin i don't have to.

I am 100% with you bro...



I guess I expected more from the guy... with his background..

but he basically gave us this = www.youtube.com/v/NI9z7gMpeE4?version=3&hl=en_US   (this is a rawdogturd video or whatever it is called)

ChartBuddy
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1PwXK9TpmmaaqaZz2eqcLkPU2C1Fcva39G


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February 12, 2014, 10:03:09 PM
 #87151


Explanation
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February 12, 2014, 10:05:47 PM
 #87152

consumers will be made to pay at the pump (charging station). Guaranteed.

Of course, except now one's pump can be at home. After materials it is free-ish. I suppose it's only fair to include the cost to replace batteries (if used), panels, etc. in one's own solar charger at whatever interval required. This is the "ish" part. Maybe $2000 every 20 years...? $100 a year?

By comparison it is a rare individual who has his own oil rig and gas refinery in his backyard producing free-ish energy for himself.

i have my own bio-diesel processor in my VW campervan - last year i travelled 2000 miles in Europe just using used cooking oil from restaurants - which cost me nothing at all - and i will be leaving the cold UK to do the same in 2 weeks time..Portugal here we come.
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February 12, 2014, 10:26:13 PM
 #87153

i have my own bio-diesel processor in my VW campervan - last year i travelled 2000 miles in Europe just using used cooking oil from restaurants - which cost me nothing at all - and i will be leaving the cold UK to do the same in 2 weeks time..Portugal here we come.

You, sir, are awesome. Unfortunately I must tell you that I noticed from over here in the U.S. that you smell a bit like french fries (perhaps you know them as chips). I will not let that come between our friendship however, mostly because I smell like sweaty bum nuts so I have trouble making friends.
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February 12, 2014, 10:27:27 PM
 #87154


Fonzie? Cheesy
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February 12, 2014, 10:31:12 PM
 #87155

anyone who is good in 1v1 league of legends can make make some money on here

http://www.betlol.net/
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February 12, 2014, 10:31:24 PM
 #87156


Would not surprise me at all  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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February 12, 2014, 10:39:26 PM
 #87157

The tesla is the bitcoin of the auto industry Smiley

Tesla is the ripple of auto industry Wink

Bitcoin would be more like a beetle .. not very comfortable but will work always and you can in theory build it yourself
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February 12, 2014, 11:02:51 PM
 #87158


Explanation
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February 12, 2014, 11:06:01 PM
Last edit: February 14, 2014, 12:44:00 AM by JorgeStolfi
 #87159

My last prediciton for Huobi by the "Chinese Slumber" method was a bit too optmistic.

Prediction made at Feb/12, 02:40 UTC
Prediction valid for Feb/12, 20:00 to 20:59 UTC
Huobi's predicted price: 4045--4105 Yuan
Huobi's actual price: 4000-4028

See the plot below.  My last three predictions are marked by blue rectangles.


The "Chinese Slumber" method looks at the price only at those times when most Chinese traders are asleep, which is around 19:00--20:00 UTC (04:00--05:00 03:00--04:00 local China time).  Those prices and times are marked by yellow dots on the plot.

Over the last two weeks, if not more, those dots seemed to follow fairly regular trends, while between the dots (when the Chinese were trading) the price often went wild.  The "Chinese slumber" method simply extrapolates the current trend to guess the next yellow dot.

The method worked beautifully the first time, using a shifted-exponential trend that fitted the previous 3-4 dots.

The second prediction was totally elmerfudded  by the Karpeles Catastrophe.

For the third prediction, I rashly extrapolated a new trend with only two dots.  Furthermore I could not get a clear reading of the price at the second dot because the Chinese (or perhaps arbitrage robots?) kept trading all through the night at Huobi.   It seems that my reading was too high.

I will keep trying...

(I have a theory for a possible cause of those Chinese Slumber trends, will post it later.)

EDIT: image redone to use 19:00 UTC (4:00 03:00 am China) instead of 20:00 (5:00 04:00 am)  as the nominal Slumber Time for the yellow dots.  Also corrected the yellow dot of Feb/11 to show the price I had used in the last prediction.

EDIT: fixed local times (UTC+08:00 not UTC+09:00)
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February 12, 2014, 11:15:33 PM
 #87160

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1xq6wq/ann_myceliums_new_local_trader_feature_will_let/

I love the features of mycelium wallet and this is great! Cheesy

mycelium wallet is the mfing future
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