Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[biafore]

It seems like people are now able to withdraw BTC from both Bitstamp and Btc-e, multiple posters now confirming that they have done so.

Is this officially confirmed now?

I've been 'exporting' from BTCe the last few days with no problems

So BTCe bitcoin withdrawals currently are working, when is the last TX you have made?, if you don't mind me asking

[OldGeek]

....I'm probably the oldest person on the board. EDIT: I see Old Geek above me...we're going to get into an argument about our healthcare cards.

lol.  Mine is printed on celluloid, or Parkesine if you prefer.

[creekbore]

....I'm probably the oldest person on the board. EDIT: I see Old Geek above me...we're going to get into an argument about our healthcare cards.

lol.  Mine is printed on celluloid, or Parkesine if you prefer.

Paper 

[creekbore]

It seems like people are now able to withdraw BTC from both Bitstamp and Btc-e, multiple posters now confirming that they have done so.

Is this officially confirmed now?

I've been 'exporting' from BTCe the last few days with no problems

So BTCe bitcoin withdrawals currently are working, when is the last TX you have made?, if you don't mind me asking

About 18hours ago (more or less)....it took about an hour

[surfer43]

Do you think GOX is going sub-500 or going to rise? 

[OldGeek]

What happens at gox when it breaks 500?

Doubt it makes much difference now.

Huobi bots seem to track gox a lot.

Now there is a thought that is pregnant with possibilities!

Chinese markets influence the global price; Huobi bots track and trade based on a failing exchange.  Boy oh boy.  What a fix we're in.

[JorgeStolfi]

In normal conditions there is a fairly stable ratio between prices at Huobi and prices at other functioning exchanges, such as Bitstamp; especially  at the "Chinese Slumber Times" when nobody is stirring at Huobi, not even a mouse.

Presumably the ratio is maintained by arbitrage traders.  It is a bit higher than the official exchange rate (1 USD = 6.09 CNY) and it seems to change sometimes.

For the last two weeks the effective ratio R = (Huobi price)/(Bitstamp price) it has been quite constant at 6.12 CNY/USD, except for the three days after the New Year holidays (feb 07--09) when it changed to 6.40.

(When the Chinese banks reopened, the price at Huobi started to fall.  Bitstamp's price did the same, but at a faster rate.  Maybe it was over-reacting to the Chinese moves, or trying to antecipate them.)

As long as this ratio R is maintained, predicitions of Huobi prices can be translated to Bitstamp prices.

In the figure below, the red/green price bars are actual Bitstamp prices, but the yellow dots are the Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by the appropriate R factor (6.40 for feb/07--09, 6.12 for the other days).  Note that they fall quite accurately on top of the actual price plot.



(In this plot I used 19:00 UTC (4:00 03:00 am China) as the nominal "slumber hour", whereas in the previous plot I had used 20:00 (5:00 04:00 am). Sorry for any confusion.)

The blue rectangles are the three predictions I made previously, based on the Chinese Slumber Method and the expected R factor.:

 * The first prediction was right on target. It used the factor  R = 6.40, estimated from the prices at Huobi and Bitstamp for the previous two days.
 
 * The second prediction too used R = 6.40, as it had been for the last three Slumber Points.  It  was foiled by the Karpeles Catastrophe, but that error was partially compensatd by the R factor unexpectedly returning to ~6.12 after the Catastrophe.

 * The third prediction would have been spot on (even more accurate than the one for Huobi)  if I had followed my Chinese Slumber Method blindly, namely the Huobi prediction divided by R.  But the result looked so unlikely that I decided to adjust it based on where the Bitstamp prices seemed to be going.  Stupid of me.

Let's see if the method works again for tomorrow... Prediction coming next.

[seleme]

CasinoBitco.in (CBTC)  on haveloack just took one hell of a hit
time is now!
buy buy buy
 

Piss off, I'm still waiting to make money on SFI you suggested 

It looks like all Havelock IPO's should be avoided and shares bought in public sale. They all go down after IPO.

[seleme]

What happens at gox when it breaks 500?

499$ 

[JorgeStolfi]

Predictions for Thursday Feb/13 at 19:00--19:59 UTC (not earlier, not later):

Huobi:  3970 plus or minus 30 CNY (3940 -- 4000)
Bitstamp:  650 plus or minus 10 USD (640 -- 660)

I used the Chinese Slumber Method described in my previous posts, extrapolating linearly from the two Slumber Points of Feb/10 and feb/12. (The feb/11 point seems to be unreliable as discussed before.)

For the Bitstamp prediction, I assumed a currency conversion factor of 6.12 -- which was valid at Slumber Times up to feb/06, and appears to be valid again since feb/10.

[Walsoraj]

Jorge, are your models more accurate when you eliminate periods of extreme volatility, which are often caused by unexpected news?

[JulieFig]

Do you really believe that?
There are a lot of stupid above 1000$ buyers that are still hodling. They will panic sell soon (within 4 weeks).

Hey, I take offence to this! I am one of these 'stupid' people. As they say, it is probable that Bitcoin will have a binary outcome, so I simply jumped on as soon as I could (which in hindsight, was unfortunately close to the ATH) but I have held ever since. No plans to panic sell. As far as I'm concerned, my coins are still worth at least $1060 because I will not part with them for any less.

edit: Sorry Davy05, quote is fixed now

[seleme]

Do you really believe that?
There are a lot of stupid above 1000$ buyers that are still hodling. They will panic sell soon (within 4 weeks).

Hey, I take offence to this! I am one of these 'stupid' people. As they say, it is probable that Bitcoin will have a binary outcome, so I simply jumped on as soon as I could (which in hindsight, was unfortunately close to the ATH) but I have held ever since. No plans to panic sell. As far as I'm concerned, my coins are still worth at least $1060 because I will not part with them for any less.

Though I'm not in always hodl camp and I trade my coins as there's no tomorrow, that's the spirit.

[BitChick]

Do you really believe that?
There are a lot of stupid above 1000$ buyers that are still hodling. They will panic sell soon (within 4 weeks).

Hey, I take offence to this! I am one of these 'stupid' people. As they say, it is probable that Bitcoin will have a binary outcome, so I simply jumped on as soon as I could (which in hindsight, was unfortunately close to the ATH) but I have held ever since. No plans to panic sell. As far as I'm concerned, my coins are still worth at least $1060 because I will not part with them for any less.

That is the best way to look at it!  So glad you did not panic and sell.  I was in the same exact situation after the last "crash."  for several months I was "underwater" if you want to call it that.  It was a bit painful knowing that if I had just waited a month longer I could have gotten coins for less than I paid for them, but it is really hard to guess what the peaks are.  There are some things to estimate what it is.  I think the next run will bring us to $5000 or more but we will see.  I am fairly confident this is just one more little bump in the road and coins are really cheap right now for those that have the cash to buy more.

[Davyd05]

Do you really believe that?
There are a lot of stupid above 1000$ buyers that are still hodling. They will panic sell soon (within 4 weeks).

Hey, I take offence to this! I am one of these 'stupid' people. As they say, it is probable that Bitcoin will have a binary outcome, so I simply jumped on as soon as I could (which in hindsight, was unfortunately close to the ATH) but I have held ever since. No plans to panic sell. As far as I'm concerned, my coins are still worth at least $1060 because I will not part with them for any less.

That is the best way to look at it!  So glad you did not panic and sell.  I was in the same exact situation after the last "crash."  for several months I was "underwater" if you want to call it that.  It was a bit painful knowing that if I had just waited a month longer I could have gotten coins for less than I paid for them, but it is really hard to guess what the peaks are.  There are some things to estimate what it is.  I think the next run will bring us to $5000 or more but we will see.  I am fairly confident this is just one more little bump in the road and coins are really cheap right now for those that have the cash to buy more.

just to clarify I said.. No to that quote, and I didn't write that quote..

otherwise.. I could add I did buy some coins at 142.50 and some at 970.00
full hodler certified member

[Peter R]

Do you really believe that?
There are a lot of stupid above 1000$ buyers that are still hodling. They will panic sell soon (within 4 weeks).

Hey, I take offence to this! I am one of these 'stupid' people. As they say, it is probable that Bitcoin will have a binary outcome, so I simply jumped on as soon as I could (which in hindsight, was unfortunately close to the ATH) but I have held ever since. No plans to panic sell. As far as I'm concerned, my coins are still worth at least $1060 because I will not part with them for any less.

Hey Julie Fig, I first bought in during the last run-up in prices in March/April.  I had what I thought at the time was "something I was OK losing" invested, and I was disheartened when the price fell below my buy-in price through the late spring and summer.

It turned out this was a blessing in disguise.  I kept researching bitcoin over the summer, and became more and more confident in its future.  So the amount "I was OK risking" on this fascinating opportunity kept increasing, and so I kept on buying.  

The point I'm trying to make is that if the price continued to rocket upwards after I purchased it, yes, I would have never been under-water, but I also would not have accumulated nearly the amount of bitcoin that I did [thereby also reducing my average buy-in price].  

Risto (reptilia) says to just buy in all at once, because your uncertainty towards bitcoin will automatically cause you to dollar-cost average [what you "think" you can afford is less than what you will afford once you're more comfortable with bitcoin].  I totally agree with this statement, as it's exactly what happened to me.  The fact that the price flat-lined all summer is what allowed me to build my position up to my true comfort level.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Davyd05]

santa is coming with $260 coins?? NICE!  

Not unless there is some more devastating news. The weak hands have gone.

Do you really believe that?
There are a lot of stupid above 1000$ buyers that are still hodling. They will panic sell soon (within 4 weeks).

doubt it

thats how it was quoted stop portraying me as Mr. Branson

[JorgeStolfi]

Jorge, are your models more accurate when you eliminate periods of extreme volatility, which are often caused by unexpected news?

The periods of extreme volatility in the last two weeks have occurred while Huobi is awake.  The good/bad news reported here do not seem to affect Huobi's prices, especially at slumber times.  (Why should they?)

At Huobi, since jan/30, the only breaks in the yellow dots trend that seem significant are

* feb/06 to feb/07 - (banks opening) the trend of the yellow dots changed from constant to shifted decaying exponential, without a break.

* feb/09 to feb/10 - (MtGox release) there was a sudden drop in the trend line . The shape of the new trend is not clear yet.

These two events also changed the currency conversion factor R relating the Huobi yellow dots to Bitstamp prices at the same times (from ~6.12 to ~6.40 and then apparently back to ~6.12)

[JorgeStolfi]

Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):


             !   Mon !   Tue !   Wed !    Thu !    Fri !    Sat !    Sun !    Mon !    Tue !    Wed !                     
  EXCHANGE   ! 02/03 ! 02/04 ! 02/05 !  02/06 !  02/07 !  02/08 !  02/09 !  02/10 !  02/11 !  02/12 ! Currencies considered

  MtGOX      |  3.37 |  5.40 |  8.20 |  21.54 |  58.89 |  26.82 |  23.48 |  50.07 |  18.70 |  25.21 | USD,EUR,GBP,AUD,JPY 
  Bitstamp   |  4.93 |  7.59 |  8.48 |  20.65 |  42.79 |  13.50 |  15.06 |  71.86 |  40.06 |  15.51 | USD                 
  BitFinEx   |  3.45 |  3.36 |  5.22 |  21.11 |  66.36 |  11.12 |  12.07 |  41.98 |  39.54 |  12.85 | USD                 
  BTC-e      |  5.75 |  4.51 |  6.55 |   9.72 |  31.84 |  11.67 |  12.51 |  47.04 |  28.64 |   9.97 | USD,EUR,RUR         
  Kraken     |  0.21 |  0.29 |  0.23 |   0.59 |   1.45 |   0.37 |   0.45 |   1.45 |   1.11 |   0.58 | EUR                 
  Bitcoin.DE |  0.51 |  0.27 |  0.31 |   0.61 |   1.30 |   0.37 |   0.47 |   1.54 |   0.67 |   0.51 | EUR                 
  CaVirtEx   |  0.08 |  0.17 |  0.18 |   0.39 |   1.07 |   0.57 |   0.23 |   0.77 |   0.53 |   0.29 | CAD                 
  CampBX     |  0.10 |  0.12 |  0.16 |   0.21 |   0.82 |   0.27 |   0.24 |   0.37 |   0.11 |   0.10 | USD                 

  SUBTOTAL   | 18.40 | 21.71 | 29.33 |  74.82 | 204.52 |  64.69 |  64.51 | 215.08 | 129.36 |  65.02 |                     

  Huobi      | 24.77 | 18.65 | 19.55 |  39.97 | 131.91 |  77.00 |  64.08 | 134.09 | 120.08 | 131.86 | CNY                 
  OKCoin     | 18.09 | 12.77 | 12.33 |  26.07 |  74.37 |  37.63 |  34.63 |  70.49 |  64.22 |  60.79 | CNY                 
  BTC-China  |  1.70 |  1.33 |  1.54 |   4.09 |  17.66 |   6.86 |   5.75 |  18.23 |  11.17 |  11.01 | CNY                 

  SUBTOTAL   | 44.56 | 32.75 | 33.42 |  70.13 | 223.94 | 121.49 | 104.46 | 222.81 | 195.47 | 203.66 |                     

  TOTAL      | 62.96 | 54.46 | 62.75 | 144.95 | 428.46 | 186.18 | 168.97 | 437.89 | 324.83 | 268.68 |                     



All numbers were collected by hand from the site http://bitcoinwisdom.com. Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.

Coinbase is said to use Bitstamp for currency conversion.

Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that Bitcoinwisdom uses your local time, so the date may appear to be off by 1 day.  For example, if you are 2 hours west of Greenwich, it may show "01/14 22:00" when the UTC time is "01/15 00:00".)

The exchange Crypto-Trade was dropped from Bitcoinwisdom's charts on Feb/10.  Its volume used to be around 10 BTC/day.