Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Arcas]

It appears that even though MtGox and Bitstamp have nearly decoupled, they are still very weakly correlated in directional bias.

I think it's quite obvious that MtGox is the main price driver at this point. The other exchanges may have decoupled but the state of MtGox and the question whether it will survive and withdrawals will be restored is still very important for the price at this moment. A higher Gox price will be associated with a higher chance of good news coming out of MtGox and this will cause other exchanges to rise as well with it.

What I have been pondering is whether this directional bias will also be the case if they reinstate withdrawals, or whether the surplus of BTC would drag down the other exchanges. I don't think this can be found out any other way than empirically, so I'm going to be watching very closely, because this will likely decide whether or not we have a longer term bear market. So far, Bitstamp looks strong to me.

I don't see why the freed bitcoin would cause more than a small glitch in the other exchanges. Bitstamp is closely linked to Coinbase, so I don't think that there will be a substantial lack of fiat.

[medialab101]

It appears that even though MtGox and Bitstamp have nearly decoupled, they are still very weakly correlated in directional bias.

I think it's quite obvious that MtGox is the main price driver at this point. The other exchanges may have decoupled but the state of MtGox and the question whether it will survive and withdrawals will be restored is still very important for the price at this moment. A higher Gox price will be associated with a higher chance of good news coming out of MtGox and this will cause other exchanges to rise as well with it.

What I have been pondering is whether this directional bias will also be the case if they reinstate withdrawals, or whether the surplus of BTC would drag down the other exchanges. I don't think this can be found out any other way than empirically, so I'm going to be watching very closely, because this will likely decide whether or not we have a longer term bear market. So far, Bitstamp looks strong to me.

After the doors open the price on Gox is going to shoot up to a premium very quickly. This will drag the other exchanges up with it and when the arbitraging kicks in it will reestablish the old disparity with Gox coins being 5-10% more expensive than other exchanges.

[UnDerDoG81]

Yay we going up... For no fucking reason... again... So stupid...

Get used to , we've gone up so many times with no reason , and downside also it's nothing that special anymore.

Was hoping for cheap coins but it is totally boring @stamp

[N12]

I'm also leaning towards what you say (likely a temporary small dip), but you never know. Dynamics can be crazy.

Imagine a swap, 300 stamp and 600 gox.

[Arcas]

After the doors open the price on Gox is going to shoot up to a premium very quickly. This will drag the other exchanges up with it and when the arbitraging kicks in it will reestablish the old disparity with Gox coins being 5-10% more expensive than other exchanges.

I think he is more concerned that people will take their bitcoins to other exchanges and upset the bitcoin-to-fiat ratios on these exchanges. This would only last until arbitrage kicks in, which would take about a week.

[Arcas]

Yay we going up... For no fucking reason... again... So stupid...

Get used to , we've gone up so many times with no reason , and downside also it's nothing that special anymore.

Was hoping for cheap coins but it is totally boring @stamp

If you think bitstamp is boring, take a look at campbx. It's like the switzerland of bitcoin exchanges.

[CryptStorm]

You guys just seem like you could use this: 

[TERA]

Yay we going up... For no fucking reason... again... So stupid...

market is following gox today more than usual suddenly. yesterday it was very calm $10 swings. and now all the sudden $80 swings. especially btce which fell all the way to 550. what a bunch of fucking idiot trolls.

[Arcas]

You guys just seem like you could use this: 

I'm still waiting for someone to factor in the meme-to-article ratio on /r/bitcoin into their trading bot.

[kurious]

It appears that even though MtGox and Bitstamp have nearly decoupled, they are still very weakly correlated in directional bias.

I think it's quite obvious that MtGox is the main price driver at this point. The other exchanges may have decoupled but the state of MtGox and the question whether it will survive and withdrawals will be restored is still very important for the price at this moment. A higher Gox price will be associated with a higher chance of good news coming out of MtGox and this will cause other exchanges to rise as well with it.

What I have been pondering is whether this directional bias will also be the case if they reinstate withdrawals, or whether the surplus of BTC would drag down the other exchanges. I don't think this can be found out any other way than empirically, so I'm going to be watching very closely, because this will likely decide whether or not we have a longer term bear market. So far, Bitstamp looks strong to me.

There will be an increase on supply at other exchanges, but if BTC can get out, then it means the 'crisis' is over, which will mean a corresponding bounce in sentiment.

This could mean by the time coins hit other exchanges, the price is rising (even on Gox it will rise) so - you are right, it will be interesting to watch.

I think it must be bullish for price, but more coins at Stamp will increase supply there, and may feed whichever direction the market feels like going.

I think a rise if Gox is 'sorted' will be the winner, but it is not a given if doubt remains about it, even after it 'opens the doors'.

The main thing is - I don't think it CAN open the doors so easily in the immediate future, as the risk of capital flight is very high.

[N12]

Guys, what arbitrage? USD cannot flee MtGox, that's the thing. JPY and SEPA withdrawals are very delayed as well now with 5-6 weeks plus they have ridiculously small daily quotas for the entire exchange. There can be no meaningful arbitrage with these conditions, near all the fiat funds would stay stuck at the emptygox.

[niothor]

Yay we going up... For no fucking reason... again... So stupid...

Get used to , we've gone up so many times with no reason , and downside also it's nothing that special anymore.

Was hoping for cheap coins but it is totally boring @stamp

If you think bitstamp is boring, take a look at campbx. It's like the switzerland of bitcoin exchanges.

Wow , that's one nice straight line graph  oh w8! 660? wtf?

[Arcas]

Guys, what arbitrage? USD cannot flee MtGox, that's the thing. JPY and SEPA withdrawals are very delayed as well now with 5-6 weeks plus they have ridiculously small daily quotas for the entire exchange. There can be no meaningful arbitrage with these conditions, near all the fiat funds would stay stuck at the emptygox.

I was referring to arbitrage on bitstamp, which is pretty liquid from what I can tell.

[N12]

Guys, what arbitrage? USD cannot flee MtGox, that's the thing. JPY and SEPA withdrawals are very delayed as well now with 5-6 weeks plus they have ridiculously small daily quotas for the entire exchange. There can be no meaningful arbitrage with these conditions, near all the fiat funds would stay stuck at the emptygox.

I was referring to arbitrage on bitstamp, which is pretty liquid from what I can tell.

How would an arbitrageur eliminate a price disparity between MtGox and Bitstamp if he does not buy on Bitstamp and sell on MtGox?

I suppose it could happen regardless of the withdrawal capabilities if there are enough uninformed people … Which, at this point, I doubt.

[Arcas]

Guys, what arbitrage? USD cannot flee MtGox, that's the thing. JPY and SEPA withdrawals are very delayed as well now with 5-6 weeks plus they have ridiculously small daily quotas for the entire exchange. There can be no meaningful arbitrage with these conditions, near all the fiat funds would stay stuck at the emptygox.

I was referring to arbitrage on bitstamp, which is pretty liquid from what I can tell.

How would an arbitrageur eliminate a price disparity between MtGox and Bitstamp if he does not buy on Bitstamp and sell on MtGox?

Oh, I was only talking about arbitrage fixing the price skew on bitstamp if MtGox released the bitcoins. I see we have a misunderstanding.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[KeyserSoze]

After that I stick a BTC ATM machine up his anus, that way he will shit bitcoins for the rest of his life.

PoopCoins, anyone?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=216068.60

[N12]

Oh, I was only talking about arbitrage fixing the price skew on bitstamp if MtGox released the bitcoins. I see we have a misunderstanding.

Could you elaborate what you mean precisely? What I understand as arbitrage is buying at one place to sell at the other to pocket the difference. Do you just mean that people will send increased amounts of money to Bitstamp if they see the price lower than elsewhere?

[Arcas]

Oh, I was only talking about arbitrage fixing the price skew on bitstamp if MtGox released the bitcoins. I see we have a misunderstanding.

Could you elaborate what you mean precisely? What I understand as arbitrage is buying at one place to sell at the other to pocket the difference. Do you just mean that people will send increased amounts of money to Bitstamp if they see the price lower than elsewhere?

Yes, that was basically what I was saying.

I suppose my wording might have been confusing. I only used it because I was referring to all exchanges originally, not just bitstamp.

[fonzie]

When Gox doubles and rises to 600$ we will see Bitstamp@1200$, am i right?
So maybe we will see a new ATH in the next hours?