Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Solarstorm75]

We are in a bull market, if you can honestly recommend your beloved grandma to invest her savings. Otherwise it's pure gambling and everybody should take the risk of losses.

Grandmothers don't live long enough to invest in bitcoin except at the capitulation bottom or the last bear trap before the parabolic phase.  And they have to be very nimble even then.

It should be understanded as metaphor for your own emotional state regarding the market.

[Yololintian]

woah 3k sell wall now (BFX)
this is feeling like insider trading to me

[TERA]

woah 3k sell wall now (BFX)
this is feeling like insider trading to me

Well we've already heard the worst about gox, so what kind of event would this insider be trading on?

[deadfi$h]

woah 3k sell wall now (BFX)
this is feeling like insider trading to me

Just because they have a lot of BTC doesn't necessarily mean they know any more than you.

Looks like whoever put that order out there is shorting and wants to reassure sellers that the price won't continue to rise.

[Yololintian]

woah 3k sell wall now (BFX)
this is feeling like insider trading to me

Well we've already heard the worst about gox, so what kind of event would this insider be trading on?

Could just be manipulation too, I'm not sure. I wouldn't put it past gox to make the situation worse tho.

[Solarstorm75]

woah 3k sell wall now (BFX)
this is feeling like insider trading to me

This is what zyk and others try to tell the community. It 's my personal observation of trading at Gox the last weeks too (dumper bots since end of January 2014, see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=458834.msg5080859#msg5080859).

[JayJuanGee]

We are in a bull market, if you can honestly recommend your beloved grandma to invest her savings. Otherwise it's pure gambling and everybody should take the risk of losses.

WE can still be in a bull market without getting grandma involved....

[aminorex]

Sell wall vanishes as soon as a buyer shows up with some cash.

[tailor]

... since there is quite a bit of pent-up desire to put money into BTC.

Based on?

[mellowyellow]

Any publicity is good publicity.

I've had 3 people today ask if I can get hold of some bitcoins for them while they are cheap. I'm pretty surprised, I really didn't expect that, so now I'm expecting a rally as soon as funds hit the exchanges.

I hope you told them, that they will be hodling a long time. Or are they day traders in the knowing of how to make profits from bear markets?

Lol, they are in no way day traders, long term hodlers with no intention to sell in the near future. They are more like "wowzers, this could be worth $10k in 5 years".

[gentlemand]

We are in a bull market, if you can honestly recommend your beloved grandma to invest her savings. Otherwise it's pure gambling and everybody should take the risk of losses.

WE can still be in a bull market without getting grandma involved....

I wish I still had some grandmas left. If I was one myself I'd probably skip one nasty coach holiday and take the chance.

[aminorex]

... since there is quite a bit of pent-up desire to put money into BTC.

Based on?

Biggest such indicator I see is that Huobi volume for the week hit a new high, over a million BTC.

[JayJuanGee]

... since there is quite a bit of pent-up desire to put money into BTC.

Based on?

Based on approximate three months of various uncertainties in the China ban situation that took us from early December into late January and then the Mt. Gox situation through the month of February.... .... and also based on the fact that the BTC network has been expanding, growing and developing during this time while investors have been waiting on the side-lines b/c of the uncertainties... that is my sense of the situation... and my sense that as soon as some of these uncertainties are resolved.. which they seem to have been largely resolved, we are going moon-ish... or at least suborbital moon into the $750 to $850 range first.. and then into the $1500 range... absent some further impediments.....      

Do you have a different sense of the current situation?

[aminorex]

Lol, they are in no way day traders, long term hodlers with no intention to sell in the near future. They are more like "wowzers, this could be worth $10k in 5 years".

or 10 months.

[UnDerDoG81]

Pretty boring no price movement...

[JorgeStolfi]

The thread got slow, so let me ask another basic question from a newbie who has never used bitcoin.

Suppose I am an expert programmer and the operator of a lare bitcoin exchange.  Suppose I keep several hundred thousand bitcoins in cold storage, split into (say) 10 lots with keys stored in pen drives, kept in safety deposit boxes of different banks.  (Sort of like this guy here http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/02/27/inside-japan-s-bitcoin-heist.html.)

Is there a way I could discover, by inspecting the blockchain or any other method, that I have already fetched and emptied six of those pen drives, and have only four more to go?

[keewee]

The thread got slow, so let me ask another basic question from a newbie who has never used bitcoin.

Suppose I am an expert programmer and the operator of a lare bitcoin exchange.  Suppose I keep several hundred thousand bitcoins in cold storage, split into (say) 10 lots with keys stored in pen drives, kept in safety deposit boxes of different banks.  (Sort of like this guy here http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/02/27/inside-japan-s-bitcoin-heist.html.)

Is there a way I could discover, by inspecting the blockchain or any other method, that I have already fetched and emptied six of those pen drives, and have only four more to go?

That doesn't take any expertise at all. The addresses are known so you simply set up a watch-only wallet to keep an eye on the balance. Alternatively you check the balance on blockchain.info or another such site.

[aminorex]

Most bullish technical aspects I have observed:

3-period weekly RSI is at the most oversold level in bitstamp history.  >90% of closing a daily bar higher in the next two weeks.

Retracement of the bounce of low unable to break 38.2% mark.  Give me a third test and I'd lay 3:2 odds that the next break is a post-gox high.  (Actually we have third test on 15 minute bars.  I'll take another 1-hour test though.)

Daily MACD low and crossing over.  I'd say this indicates at least 3:2 odds that we are within 3 days of a higher daily close.

Also, on a 5-minute scale, we're seeing higher highs and higher lows, albeit in a very tight range.  No mixture estimate on this one as it is too weak to matter.

Of the three, I'd weight the Fib the most highly in a mixture model, followed by RSI, then MACD.

Anybody got some bearish indicators to mix in?

[Nicholas-Carraway]

Most bullish technical aspects I have observed:

3-period weekly RSI is at the most oversold level in bitstamp history.  >90% of closing a daily bar higher in the next two weeks.

Retracement of the bounce of low unable to break 38.2% mark.  Give me a third test and I'd lay 3:2 odds that the next break is a post-gox high.  (Actually we have third test on 15 minute bars.  I'll take another 1-hour test though.)

Daily MACD low and crossing over.  I'd say this indicates at least 3:2 odds that we are within 3 days of a higher daily close.

Also, on a 5-minute scale, we're seeing higher highs and higher lows, albeit in a very tight range.  No mixture estimate on this one as it is too weak to matter.

Of the three, I'd weight the Fib the most highly in a mixture model, followed by RSI, then MACD.

Anybody got some bearish indicators to mix in?

You forgot the inverse (cone)head and shoulders pattern.

[surfer43]

Whoever predicted a gradual drop appears to be,right so far...