Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cbutters]

Nice upwards movement on houbi. stamp might break out of the downward trend in a few hours, cross your fingers though... its been several attempts...

[solex]

Nice upwards movement on houbi. stamp might break out of the downward trend in a few hours, cross your fingers though... its been several attempts...

I noticed that too. The markets may break the 7-week downtrend, particularly if 600 is regained and held for a day.

[btcprophet]

I wonder, who else watch this thread constantly even though they only hold and buy, never sell ?

Hodling lurker reporting for duty! Earliest I'd consider selling a bit is around the next halving. I come here for the news on the latest shenanigans.

[scarass]

I'm surprised. No bounty on MK's head yet?

scarass, you worried about mark putting a bounty on your head?

Why would I?

[gizmoh]

http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-files-bankruptcy-claims-63-6m-debt/

"That same document also described fiat assets of $32.43m and liabilities of $55m. The assets include $5m “held by CoinLab” and another $5.5m “held by the DHS”. "

So $21 million in liquidity remains in Gox bank  to be disbursed to clients. How much will go back to purchase real coins!  

Once gox is done liquidated, we are going up..

[yrtrnc]

Some people in bitcoin want their cake and want to eat it. Especially the newcomers. Bitcoin is not about security it's about freedom and that's what I love about it.

[jl2012]

http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-files-bankruptcy-claims-63-6m-debt/

"That same document also described fiat assets of $32.43m and liabilities of $55m. The assets include $5m “held by CoinLab” and another $5.5m “held by the DHS”. "

So $21 million in liquidity remains in Gox bank  to be disbursed to clients. How much will go back to purchase real coins!  

Once gox is done liquidated, we are going up..

But this also means they have to liquidate their remaining coins FIRST, if any left?

[bitdig]

Not much, 2000 left..

http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-files-bankruptcy-claims-63-6m-debt/

"That same document also described fiat assets of $32.43m and liabilities of $55m. The assets include $5m “held by CoinLab” and another $5.5m “held by the DHS”. "

So $21 million in liquidity remains in Gox bank  to be disbursed to clients. How much will go back to purchase real coins!  

Once gox is done liquidated, we are going up..

But this also means they have to liquidate their remaining coins FIRST, if any left?

[isov]

So quiet in here, so quiet. So what do you guys think we are waiting for? Gox to come out with somekind of a statement about what they are going to do, pay back any money or btc to anyone or not? Looks like there isn't too much pressure in either way, just hanging around here in 555-590$ atm. Damn I just would like to see those days of rally again. Better rush than any drugs I've ever tried.

[fluidjax]

http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-files-bankruptcy-claims-63-6m-debt/

"That same document also described fiat assets of $32.43m and liabilities of $55m. The assets include $5m “held by CoinLab” and another $5.5m “held by the DHS”. "

So $21 million in liquidity remains in Gox bank  to be disbursed to clients. How much will go back to purchase real coins!  

Once gox is done liquidated, we are going up..

But this also means they have to liquidate their remaining coins FIRST, if any left?

That doesn't really make any sense, as coins are divisible, and the creditors want coins, you would hope that they would simply split them and distribute them as mBTC on the BTC (as cents on the $), though I guess that is probably a little bit too sensible to hope for.

[HairyMaclairy]

So quiet in here, so quiet. So what do you guys think we are waiting for? Gox to come out with somekind of a statement about what they are going to do, pay back any money or btc to anyone or not? Looks like there isn't too much pressure in either way, just hanging around here in 555-590$ atm. Damn I just would like to see those days of rally again. Better rush than any drugs I've ever tried.

Gox is trying to come up with a business plan to continue operations.  We know this because of the type of bankruptcy they chose.  Mark is still hoping for a white knight.

They are not winding up at this stage.   There will be no distribution of $ or BTC to anyone in the short term.

I think it will be at least a year before anyone get anything. Probably longer.  And if the books are correct that they have $22 million in cash and $60 million in fiat liabilities then fiat holders will be lucky to get 25 cents on the dollar after Mark keeps paying himself and his staff salaries for the next 18 months. Gox coin holders are at serious risk of getting zero after 2 years.

0.03 for Gox BTC is looking pretty expensive.  Even assuming the 2000 coins in the hot wallet are distributed - 2000 / 500,000 = 0.004.  And even you would have to wait two years and have less than a 50% chance of getting them.  So on that basis I think Gox coins on  bitcoinbuilder are at least 20x too expensive and a better than 50% chance of having a nil value.

I don't have any coins on Gox but I'm severely bummed about it. I can't imagine what people who lost millions feel like.

[keewee]

Not much, 2000 left..

http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-files-bankruptcy-claims-63-6m-debt/

"That same document also described fiat assets of $32.43m and liabilities of $55m. The assets include $5m “held by CoinLab” and another $5.5m “held by the DHS”. "

So $21 million in liquidity remains in Gox bank  to be disbursed to clients. How much will go back to purchase real coins!  

Once gox is done liquidated, we are going up..

But this also means they have to liquidate their remaining coins FIRST, if any left?

If this investigation is correct there's at least another 90,000btc that need to be explained: http://letstalkbitcoin.com/the-ghost-in-the-machine-at-mtgox/

[ErisDiscordia]

I wonder, who else watch this thread constantly even though they only hold and buy, never sell ?

That would be me

I stare at charts because it gives my obsessively analytical mind something to do.

EDIT: it's not fair to say I never sell. I do spend. And then buy some more. And sending micro-donations to all sorts of people has become my hobby 

[isov]

So quiet in here, so quiet. So what do you guys think we are waiting for? Gox to come out with somekind of a statement about what they are going to do, pay back any money or btc to anyone or not? Looks like there isn't too much pressure in either way, just hanging around here in 555-590$ atm. Damn I just would like to see those days of rally again. Better rush than any drugs I've ever tried.

Gox is trying to come up with a business plan to continue operations.  We know this because of the type of bankruptcy they chose.  Mark is still hoping for a white knight.

They are not winding up at this stage.   There will be no distribution of $ or BTC to anyone in the short term.

I think it will be at least a year before anyone get anything. Probably longer.  And if the books are correct that they have $22 million in cash and $60 million in fiat liabilities then fiat holders will be lucky to get 25 cents on the dollar after Mark keeps paying himself and his staff salaries for the next 18 months. Gox coin holders are at serious risk of getting zero after 2 years.

0.03 for Gox BTC is looking pretty expensive.  Even assuming the 2000 coins in the hot wallet are distributed - 2000 / 500,000 = 0.004.  And even you would have to wait two years and have less than a 50% chance of getting them.  So on that basis I think Gox coins on  bitcoinbuilder are at least 20x too expensive and a better than 50% chance of having a nil value.

I don't have any coins on Gox but I'm severely bummed about it. I can't imagine what people who lost millions feel like.

I'm also damn glad I never did any business with that company. But so this means there is no point to wait for anything to come out from Gox, no money, no BTC so we would be ready to just start going up, I'm sure this Gox thing shouldn't be so big to keep the whole market down for extended periods of time. Well yeah I understand that this makes certain uncertainty to the market but shouldn't take too long to step out of it and hopefully go up again. Atleast I'm thinking that we are so low already that there shouldn't be too much downtrend left, maybe a brief visit to 400's again but after that. Also a think that haunts my mind is this small small green light I can see on the 1-day chart macd of BS, that surely can not be a bad thing can it? It has been on the edge of turning green for couple times already but always the downtrend has fallen further before turning green so now I think it really is for real and we might see some better days in couple weeks.   

[ErisDiscordia]

The net is littered with smug obituaries like this one:

http://dailyreckoning.com/bye-bye-bitcoin-hello-hard-assets/

we should make it a point to re-send this opinionated pontificating crap to its respective authors in a year from now. Daring them to re-publish it. Wasn't there a list of these sort of obituaries and predictions somebody was maintaining? Talk is SO cheap these days. You can just write a piece like this, be proven completely wrong and never have to admit your mistake or apologize - you just continue to pontificate on whatever else is the topic of the day.

Ah well, gotta remember the wisdom in my signature 

[equipoise]

I wonder, who else watch this thread constantly even though they only hold and buy, never sell ?

That would be me

I stare at charts because it gives my obsessively analytical mind something to do.

EDIT: it's not fair to say I never sell. I do spend. And then buy some more. And sending micro-donations to all sorts of people has become my hobby 

Please send a donation to this campaign: http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/weed-like-to-talk or send some to me too. Thank you!

[mmitech]

Good morning guys, so the price yesterday went to 535 ? what happened ? can someone update me ? instant dump ? I didn't drink my morning coffee yet, so it will take me some time before I really wake up

[ErisDiscordia]

I wonder, who else watch this thread constantly even though they only hold and buy, never sell ?

That would be me

I stare at charts because it gives my obsessively analytical mind something to do.

EDIT: it's not fair to say I never sell. I do spend. And then buy some more. And sending micro-donations to all sorts of people has become my hobby 

Please send a donation to this campaign: http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/weed-like-to-talk or send some to me too. Thank you!

yay weed! donated  

[JayJuanGee]

Based on approximate three months of various uncertainties in the China ban situation that took us from early December into late January and then the Mt. Gox situation through the month of February.... .... and also based on the fact that the BTC network has been expanding, growing and developing during this time while investors have been waiting on the side-lines b/c of the uncertainties... that is my sense of the situation... and my sense that as soon as some of these uncertainties are resolved.. which they seem to have been largely resolved, we are going moon-ish... or at least suborbital moon into the $750 to $850 range first.. and then into the $1500 range... absent some further impediments.....      

Do you have a different sense of the current situation?

My sense is that nobody has a clue what's going to happen, and that looking at the same set of facts most predictions will tend to align with the wishes of the person making the prediction.

That is way to fantastical to think that we all live in fantasy worlds.. with our own sense of reality that is NOT really based in reality....    I do NOT see the world like that.


There are people who are long term investors of bitcoin and there are day traders..... Additionally,  there are people who abstain from investing in bitcoin... I happen to be one of many persons who is bullish on bitcoin, and personally, i am investing in bitcoin based on my sense that bitcoin is going to go up in value and price.... this has very little to do with what i want or wish or whatever is in my head... it has to do with a prediction... based on objective facts... and also how I think things are going to play out... Certainly, I am NOT an insider or a technical person; however, i have looked into some of the dynamics and read various bitcoin informational sources.

My sense of the direction of bitcoin has more to do with what I have studied and what I predict will be the direction...

Of course, I may be wrong in my prediction..... frequently, there are winners and losers when it comes to investments... or even part winners and/or part losers... depending upon how much the person has to invest and timing and maybe even some luck or even questions about whether a person who is interested in investing has means to make such an investment allocation.

I do NOT buy that the world is just made up of a bunch of people wishing whatever they want...

[kurious]

http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-files-bankruptcy-claims-63-6m-debt/

"That same document also described fiat assets of $32.43m and liabilities of $55m. The assets include $5m “held by CoinLab” and another $5.5m “held by the DHS”. "

So $21 million in liquidity remains in Gox bank  to be disbursed to clients. How much will go back to purchase real coins!  

Once gox is done liquidated, we are going up..

You are forgetting administration costs.

In my experience, expert liquidators would be wondering if 21 million USD was enough to pay the costs of auditing the mess at Gox.

You almost need to run the company for a 6 months to a year to organise evaluating the situation - but without its normal profits continuing to pay the costs. And a freeze of assets pending 'investigations' will put a hold on this for ages anyway.

Then most liquidations I have seen seem to spend almost all the cash in the bank, by pure coincidence.

The only possible 'payout' would be from coins being sold from a substantial pile left (if there is one) and even then a lot of cost would still be taken off.

Basically - forget a payout of any substantial percentage, and forget seeing even this anytime soon.

DISCLOSURE: I had coins on Gox - not many, but I am not sneering, just being realistic.