Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Found this on some thread. That is the second bottom you decribe, right?

That picture may be comforting if you believe that the future price will be magically determined by what it did over the past year and in 2011.

I would rather believe that each "bubble" in the bitcoin price history was caused by the opening of a new "consumer market" (a new set of people, or a new application). 

That is why they all had similar shape: an exponential rise as adoption spreads through that consumer market, by "contagion" and media reports, amplified by speclative buying;  a crash when the market saturates and the speculative buyers dump; oscillations while the speculators over-react and then over-correct.

When the oscillations end, in most cases we see a plateau: the price remains relatively constant, at some level higher than the pre-bubble price.  The plateau implies that the buyers keep holding the coins that they acquired during the rally, and the miners' outputs are somehow being bought too.

In some cases, however, instead of a plateau we see a slow exponential decay towards the pre-bubble price.  Presumably that happens when the consumers in that market gradually give up bitcoin and return their holdings to the exchanges.

The exponential decay was observed in the bubbles that atarted around Apr/2011 and Nov/2013.  In the tail of the 2011 bubble, the price would probably have dropped to the pre-bubble level, 0.75 $/BTC; but then on Nov/2011 another bubble started, that lifted the price to ~5 $/BTC.

The Nov/2013 bubble seems to be on its way to deflating too.  If no new "market" opens, the price probably will continue decaying towards the pre-bubble level, around 120--150 $/BTC.  It is not certain, but the two smaller bubbles that started at the end of May/2014 and in early Nov/2014 may be deflating too.

This analysis is not useful for prediciting the price, since there is no way of telling whether or when the next consumer market will open up, nor how big it will be.  On the contrary, this analysis claims that the recovery that started on Nov/2011 was probably unrelated to the Apr/2011 bubble and its decay.  Therefore, that fact that the Nov/2013 bubble is nearly undone, like the Apr/2011 one, does not imply that a new bubble is about to start, as happened in 2011.

[ElectricMucus]

"The card industry wants to perpetuate the myth that using a credit card is free, or priceless. But the cost is baked into the price of all the goods and services we buy."

Thats why alot of places have given up on all that BS and raised the cash prices to same level as credit card price to create the illusion that credit price is same as cash.

By alot you mean pretty much everywhere. The thing is consumers don't care about fees if they come out of the merchants profit margin, which they are if prices are the same for other payment methods.

[cbeast]

That pretty much sums it up. 

For users it needs more adoption, it cost most people to acquire bitcoins and the price fluctuates every minute.

well kinda being an ass here...but here goes:

1) 2013- 2014 price bubble popped

2) 2014-2015 (now) the miner/data hall bubble popped

3) 2015-2016? the adoption/USEAGE?infrastruture/as an actual means of use for bitcoin/and alts...now that...... bubble pops?
 (ie slowdown of bitcoin/altcoin/adoption due to above other 2 bubbles with price tanking and press FUD)  (i hope not just saying)

hope I am incorrect....but if adoption  is the next bubble we are all screwed!

3.5) the moment IBM and Samsung realize they need Bitcoin for their Internet of Things to be monetized.

[Afrikoin]

Found this on some thread. That is the second bottom you decribe, right?

That picture may be comforting if you believe that the future price will be magically determined by what it did over the past year and in 2011.

I would rather believe that each "bubble" in the bitcoin price history was caused by the opening of a new "consumer market" (a new set of people, or a new application).  

That is why they all had similar shape: an exponential rise as adoption spreads through that consumer market, by "contagion" and media reports, amplified by speclative buying;  a crash when the market saturates and the speculative buyers dump; oscillations while the speculators over-react and then over-correct.

When the oscillations end, in most cases we see a plateau: the price remains relatively constant, at some level higher than the pre-bubble price.  The plateau implies that the buyers keep holding the coins that they acquired during the rally, and the miners' outputs are somehow being bought too.

In some cases, however, instead of a plateau we see a slow exponential decay towards the pre-bubble price.  Presumably that happens when the consumers in that market gradually give up bitcoin and return their holdings to the exchanges.

The exponential decay was observed in the bubbles that atarted around Apr/2011 and Nov/2013.  In the tail of the 2011 bubble, the price would probably have dropped to the pre-bubble level, 0.75 $/BTC; but then on Nov/2011 another bubble started, that lifted the price to ~5 $/BTC.

The Nov/2013 bubble seems to be on its way to deflating too.  If no new "market" opens, the price probably will continue decaying towards the pre-bubble level, around 120--150 $/BTC.  It is not certain, but the two smaller bubbles that started at the end of May/2014 and in early Nov/2014 may be deflating too.

This analysis is not useful for prediciting the price, since there is no way of telling whether or when the next consumer market will open up, nor how big it will be.  On the contrary, this analysis claims that the recovery that started on Nov/2011 was probably unrelated to the Apr/2011 bubble and its decay.  Therefore, that fact that the Nov/2013 bubble is nearly undone, like the Apr/2011 one, does not imply that a new bubble is about to start, as happened in 2011.

2 big events expected in 2015.

Early 2015, bitlicense new york. Google this audio - podcats Ben Lawsky on bitlicense "moneytalking20150109_lawsky_web''

*edit http://50.31.154.46/moneytalking/moneytalking20150109_lawsky_web.mp3?downloadId=53a9d622771f8ef7_fWbQGsRJ_000000Fuwl3

ETFs expected in 2015.

You forget, while we are all traders, we still have an eye (some of us) on the fundamentals. Who wouldn't?

[ChartBuddy]

Bitfinex

Bitstamp

Explanation

[janos666]

ETFs expected in 2015.

You forget, while we are all traders, we still have an eye (some of us) on the fundamentals. Who wouldn't?

Isn't the Winklevoss ETF IPO priced around 100 USD/BTC? (Serious question, I could be misinformed by the wrong rumor.)

[Afrikoin]

ETFs expected in 2015.

You forget, while we are all traders, we still have an eye (some of us) on the fundamentals. Who wouldn't?

Isn't the Winklevoss ETF IPO priced around 100 USD/BTC? (Serious question, I could be misinformed by the wrong rumor.)

From bitcoin markets

Let me explain. IPO = 20million USD

Let's say Bitcoin price day of IPO is 100 (the ETF will be priced at 1/5 of winki index which is the Bitcoin price)

Then on IPO day they would have 2 million Coin ETF shares to sell.

I get this by dividing 20 million USD(amount invested per filing) by Bitcoin price of 500 (hypothetical price on IPO day) times 5

If after the first day of trading there are more than 2 million open interest(meaning more than 100,000 long held for long term)they would have to buy more coins.

In review after first day 2,055,000 open interest (hold long position) they would need to purchase 11,000 bitcoins on the open market. They would be doing this daily.

2,055,000 means additional 55,000 open interest. Because 1/5 size of bitcoin need to divide by 5 thus need to purchase 11,000 bitcoins.

Hope this helps!

[Wekkel]

Price action is very weak. The price must be lower to lure out buyers. $120 here we come.

[samsonn25]

"The card industry wants to perpetuate the myth that using a credit card is free, or priceless. But the cost is baked into the price of all the goods and services we buy."

Thats why alot of places have given up on all that BS and raised the cash prices to same level as credit card price to create the illusion that credit price is same as cash.

By alot you mean pretty much everywhere. The thing is consumers don't care about fees if they come out of the merchants profit margin, which they are if prices are the same for other payment methods.

If merchants had their choice I think they would rather charge higher prices and only accept credit, rather than sell at lower price for cash because most purchases people use credit/debit.

[JorgeStolfi]

Isn't the Winklevoss ETF IPO priced around 100 USD/BTC? (Serious question, I could be misinformed by the wrong rumor.)

No, in the documents they say that the initial offering will be 1 million shares, each representing 0.2 BTC. That is the hard data.

The initial price of each share will be 0.2 of the BTC price at the time of the offer.

In the filed documents, they give an example, assuming an arbitrary BTC price of 100.45 $/BTC (that was the price on Jun 27, 2013; may be the date when they filed the first version of the document).

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579346/000119312514457552/d721187ds1a.htm

They are believed to own ~200'000 BTC, which is consistent with those hard numbers.  So, most likely, the ETF managers would sell 1 million shares to the public, and then use the money to buy 200'000 BTC from the Winkles.

That would be a way for the Winkles to sell their 200'000 BTC at market price, without crashing the market. 

[Searing]

ETFs expected in 2015.

You forget, while we are all traders, we still have an eye (some of us) on the fundamentals. Who wouldn't?

Isn't the Winklevoss ETF IPO priced around 100 USD/BTC? (Serious question, I could be misinformed by the wrong rumor.)

I just can't see the US agency involved/bureaucracy lettting this ETF fund launch....at least not right now or even this  year
...I see it being punted down the road for 'congress to decide" and or say 'legal/legislative questions to be addressed" ie STALL

I mean would you want to be the gov't agency that launched this ETC with the current price drop and the press FUD
etc

naw..it will be 2016 or later imho ..they will kick it over to congress in some manner and will probably state they will
'revisit it and allow a re-apply" when certain legal/legislative conditions are met...hedging their bets....

hope I'm wrong but the facebook Twins ETF looks a hell of a lot less likely then 2 months ago imho

(but what do i know I bought a 10k knc Titan no roi no refund Titan before the price and miner bubbles burst so consider
the source here ...i'm basicaly clueless...just saying)

[medialab101]

Nice pump going on at the moment 

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Nice pump going on at the moment 

Somebody wanted to buy thousands of coins at $200. Had to eat through some walls to get them

[oblox]

Move started on Huobi

[Elwar]

Too lazy for any To da moon pics this morning so I will just post this:

->  O

[eiprol]

pump time?  

[KFR]

Seems to have plenty of momentum.  

[DaRude]

Who pressed the red button  

[MelMan2002]

Gotta be some piece of news...can't seem to find anything  

[Elwar]

Someone must've forgot a decimal when buying.

Oops