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Question: Price prediction for the May 21 weekly close:
<$20,000 - 7 (8.1%)
$20,000 - $22,000 - 0 (0%)
$22,000 - $24,000 - 2 (2.3%)
$24,000 - $26,000 - 3 (3.5%)
$26,000 - $28,000 - 7 (8.1%)
$28,000 - $30,000 - 12 (14%)
$30,000 - $32,000 - 19 (22.1%)
$32,000 - $34,000 - 8 (9.3%)
$34,000 - $36,000 - 6 (7%)
$36,000 - $38,000 - 3 (3.5%)
$38,000 - $40,000 - 2 (2.3%)
>$40,000 - 17 (19.8%)
Total Voters: 86

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25622796 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (160 posts by 2 users with 9 merit deleted.)
inca
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January 27, 2015, 07:36:10 PM

The recent "flash-bubble" created by the Coinbase announcement shows that the "West" can lift the price by at least +50 dollars (~250 to ~300) with suitable rumors.

I am assuming that the Chinese did not pay attention to the rumor, as they have not paid attention to other similar news in the past.  I am also assuming that the gentler upward trend that started around 2015-01-15 comes from China,  not from the "West"

I still don't know what caused the mini-bubble that started on 2014-05-20.  If it was created in the West, too, then it would imply that the "West" can pump the price by +200 $/BTC (modulo the possibility that the increment may depend on the starting price level).  

You are aware that a single 3.5 million dollar market order on bitfinex takes the price up to 470 dollars. If big money wants the price to rise, it rises, or falls or whatever they want, and for tiny amounts of cash in wall street terms. There is a limit to what can be shorted (available btc for lending) on Western exchanges, but a single motivated individual (say Tim Draper) could at any moment drive up the price and keep it there.

Imagine if the price was pumped to 400 by a big buy and then a 50 million dollar bid support wall appeared on coinbase.
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January 27, 2015, 07:38:47 PM

The recent "flash-bubble" created by the Coinbase announcement shows that the "West" can lift the price by at least +50 dollars (~250 to ~300) with suitable rumors.

I am assuming that the Chinese did not pay attention to the rumor, as they have not paid attention to other similar news in the past.  I am also assuming that the gentler upward trend that started around 2015-01-15 comes from China,  not from the "West"

I still don't know what caused the mini-bubble that started on 2014-05-20.  If it was created in the West, too, then it would imply that the "West" can pump the price by +200 $/BTC (modulo the possibility that the increment may depend on the starting price level).  

Chinese exchanges are consistently lower than western. That tells me that China is cashing out and is arbed to west. When you see Hooboy's price higher than stamp thats when China would be leading the uptrend
TankHankerous
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January 27, 2015, 07:43:35 PM
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Before bitcoin can sustain any real value the general population need to not necessarily understand how bitcoin works but more importantly how to secure them.  A user friendly interface for using bitcoin would definitely help mass adoption also.  
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January 27, 2015, 07:44:07 PM

http://www.coindesk.com/california-regulator-coinbase-exchange-regulated-licensed/

fucking coinbase. they dont even have a 1/3 of states

Dammit, I guess we can now continue with downtrend.  Cry
kodtycoon
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January 27, 2015, 07:48:11 PM

The recent "flash-bubble" created by the Coinbase announcement shows that the "West" can lift the price by at least +50 dollars (~250 to ~300) with suitable rumors.

I am assuming that the Chinese did not pay attention to the rumor, as they have not paid attention to other similar news in the past.  I am also assuming that the gentler upward trend that started around 2015-01-15 comes from China,  not from the "West"

I still don't know what caused the mini-bubble that started on 2014-05-20.  If it was created in the West, too, then it would imply that the "West" can pump the price by +200 $/BTC (modulo the possibility that the increment may depend on the starting price level).  

Chinese exchanges are consistently lower than western. That tells me that China is cashing out and is arbed to west. When you see Hooboy's price higher than stamp thats when China would be leading the uptrend
oh look a single sell on bitstamp... a good few sells on bitfinex.. yet chinese exchanges plow higher..

q buying spree on bitstamp and finex in 3 2 ...
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January 27, 2015, 07:48:40 PM

Why aren't the Greeks and Russians buying?

Can't say anything for Greeks, but Russians are buying USD, because RUB is being inflated much faster than USD, so the majority of the people don't notice any USD inflation.

I'm skeptical of any capital flight pump theories (including Cypress 2013), because lacking robust Bitcoin remittance flows entering the country, if for example a Russian had a way already to put USD or euro on an exchange in the first place, the Russian has already solved his capital controls problem prior to even purchasing Bitcoin. Also in the case of stringent capital controls in these scenarios, I have a hard time seeing what mechanism will arbitrage that local price action into a rising price on the exchanges. Cypress is understandable as a eurozone nation, but ostensibly the buys would've happened after the haircuts already transpired, and what would the supposed Russian oligarchs purchase Bitcoin in Cypress instead of freely converting USD accounts within the eurozone (ostensibly there may be frictions here of which I'm not aware).
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January 27, 2015, 07:48:57 PM

http://www.coindesk.com/california-regulator-coinbase-exchange-regulated-licensed/

fucking coinbase. they dont even have a 1/3 of states

Dammit, I guess we can now continue with downtrend.  Cry

The first exchange to pwn Bitcoiners before it's even open Cheesy
JorgeStolfi
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January 27, 2015, 07:50:44 PM

The recent "flash-bubble" created by the Coinbase announcement shows that the "West" can lift the price by at least +50 dollars (~250 to ~300) with suitable rumors.

You are aware that a single 3.5 million dollar market order on bitfinex takes the price up to 470 dollars.

Is that a confirmed fact, or a deduction based on the order book?  If the latter, it does not mean anything: arbitragers pull in orders from all the other exchanges (including those that are not carried by any chart site).  A large buy would also bring in some of the coins that are sitting in off-exchange wallets, or in the traders' accounts but not in the order book.

Quote
If big money wants the price to rise, it rises, or falls or whatever they want, and for tiny amounts of cash in wall street terms. There is a limit to what can be shorted (available btc for lending) on Western exchanges, but a single motivated individual (say Tim Draper) could at any moment drive up the price and keep it there.

Imagine if the price was pumped to 400 by a big buy and then a 50 million dollar bid support wall appeared on coinbase.

The empirical observation above accounts for the money that is actually available, ie. that Western traders will pour into the market in response to positive rumors.  Of course it depends on how positive are the rumors.

As for conjectures: with enough money, the price could rise to the moon of Pluto (and, with enough BTC, it could drop to single digits).
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January 27, 2015, 07:50:56 PM

The recent "flash-bubble" created by the Coinbase announcement shows that the "West" can lift the price by at least +50 dollars (~250 to ~300) with suitable rumors.

I am assuming that the Chinese did not pay attention to the rumor, as they have not paid attention to other similar news in the past.  I am also assuming that the gentler upward trend that started around 2015-01-15 comes from China,  not from the "West"

I still don't know what caused the mini-bubble that started on 2014-05-20.  If it was created in the West, too, then it would imply that the "West" can pump the price by +200 $/BTC (modulo the possibility that the increment may depend on the starting price level).  

You are aware that a single 3.5 million dollar market order on bitfinex takes the price up to 470 dollars. If big money wants the price to rise, it rises, or falls or whatever they want, and for tiny amounts of cash in wall street terms. There is a limit to what can be shorted (available btc for lending) on Western exchanges, but a single motivated individual (say Tim Draper) could at any moment drive up the price and keep it there.

Imagine if the price was pumped to 400 by a big buy and then a 50 million dollar bid support wall appeared on coinbase.


Whales would never do this as it would benefit us and not them. What they do is scare the price around, stop hunt, pull in the unskilled traders' money and use the increased volatility/liquidity to take positions. The fake pump to $272 earlier with those upthrust/distribution candles on unusually high volume is a good example. (Thar she blows!) That tells me we are going down before going up.
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January 27, 2015, 07:53:39 PM

http://www.coindesk.com/california-regulator-coinbase-exchange-regulated-licensed/

fucking coinbase. they dont even have a 1/3 of states

What does this mean? That it was just a joke or what?
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January 27, 2015, 07:54:14 PM



The astronaut here cannot possibly be hurt as his suit can well protect him from electric shocks.
Important to understand the risks...
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January 27, 2015, 07:54:39 PM

The recent "flash-bubble" created by the Coinbase announcement shows that the "West" can lift the price by at least +50 dollars (~250 to ~300) with suitable rumors.

I am assuming that the Chinese did not pay attention to the rumor, as they have not paid attention to other similar news in the past.  I am also assuming that the gentler upward trend that started around 2015-01-15 comes from China,  not from the "West"

I still don't know what caused the mini-bubble that started on 2014-05-20.  If it was created in the West, too, then it would imply that the "West" can pump the price by +200 $/BTC (modulo the possibility that the increment may depend on the starting price level).  

You are aware that a single 3.5 million dollar market order on bitfinex takes the price up to 470 dollars. If big money wants the price to rise, it rises, or falls or whatever they want, and for tiny amounts of cash in wall street terms. There is a limit to what can be shorted (available btc for lending) on Western exchanges, but a single motivated individual (say Tim Draper) could at any moment drive up the price and keep it there.

Imagine if the price was pumped to 400 by a big buy and then a 50 million dollar bid support wall appeared on coinbase.


Whales would never do this as it would benefit us and not them. What they do is scare the price around, stop hunt, pull in the unskilled traders' money and use the increased volatility to take positions. The fake pump to $272 earlier with those upthrust/distribution candles on unusually high volume is a good example. (Thar she blows!) That tells me we are going down before going up.

How low do you think we're headed?
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January 27, 2015, 07:54:41 PM

http://www.coindesk.com/california-regulator-coinbase-exchange-regulated-licensed/

fucking coinbase. they dont even have a 1/3 of states

And they were, um, obfuscating when they claimed to be the "first" licensed US exchange.

And they were also, er, obfuscating when they let people to think that client BTC balances are insured.

And, furthermore, they were, ahem, obfuscating when they left the impression that client USD balances are insured by FDIC.
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January 27, 2015, 07:57:32 PM

The recent "flash-bubble" created by the Coinbase announcement shows that the "West" can lift the price by at least +50 dollars (~250 to ~300) with suitable rumors.

I am assuming that the Chinese did not pay attention to the rumor, as they have not paid attention to other similar news in the past.  I am also assuming that the gentler upward trend that started around 2015-01-15 comes from China,  not from the "West"

I still don't know what caused the mini-bubble that started on 2014-05-20.  If it was created in the West, too, then it would imply that the "West" can pump the price by +200 $/BTC (modulo the possibility that the increment may depend on the starting price level).   

You are aware that a single 3.5 million dollar market order on bitfinex takes the price up to 470 dollars. If big money wants the price to rise, it rises, or falls or whatever they want, and for tiny amounts of cash in wall street terms. There is a limit to what can be shorted (available btc for lending) on Western exchanges, but a single motivated individual (say Tim Draper) could at any moment drive up the price and keep it there.

Imagine if the price was pumped to 400 by a big buy and then a 50 million dollar bid support wall appeared on coinbase.


Whales would never do this as it would benefit us and not them. What they do is scare the price around, stop hunt, pull in the unskilled traders' money and use the increased volatility to take positions. The fake pump to $272 earlier with those upthrust/distribution candles on unusually high volume is a good example. (Thar she blows!) That tells me we are going down before going up.

How low do you think we're headed?

$225 if things get panicky. I'll have my short from $300 ready to cover below $250.
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January 27, 2015, 07:57:57 PM

By the way, the pump was mostly china, it's always china.

Was it?  If so, I take my post back...
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


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January 27, 2015, 07:59:55 PM

Coin
Explanation
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9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL


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January 27, 2015, 08:00:29 PM

Why aren't the Greeks and Russians buying?

Can't say anything for Greeks, but Russians are buying USD, because RUB is being inflated much faster than USD, so the majority of the people don't notice any USD inflation.

The interest is growing in Russia.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/localbtcRUB#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
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103 days, 21 hours and 10 minutes.


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January 27, 2015, 08:01:17 PM

The recent "flash-bubble" created by the Coinbase announcement shows that the "West" can lift the price by at least +50 dollars (~250 to ~300) with suitable rumors.

I am assuming that the Chinese did not pay attention to the rumor, as they have not paid attention to other similar news in the past.  I am also assuming that the gentler upward trend that started around 2015-01-15 comes from China,  not from the "West"

I still don't know what caused the mini-bubble that started on 2014-05-20.  If it was created in the West, too, then it would imply that the "West" can pump the price by +200 $/BTC (modulo the possibility that the increment may depend on the starting price level).   

You are aware that a single 3.5 million dollar market order on bitfinex takes the price up to 470 dollars. If big money wants the price to rise, it rises, or falls or whatever they want, and for tiny amounts of cash in wall street terms. There is a limit to what can be shorted (available btc for lending) on Western exchanges, but a single motivated individual (say Tim Draper) could at any moment drive up the price and keep it there.

Imagine if the price was pumped to 400 by a big buy and then a 50 million dollar bid support wall appeared on coinbase.


Whales would never do this as it would benefit us and not them. What they do is scare the price around, stop hunt, pull in the unskilled traders' money and use the increased volatility to take positions. The fake pump to $272 earlier with those upthrust/distribution candles on unusually high volume is a good example. (Thar she blows!) That tells me we are going down before going up.

How low do you think we're headed?

$225 if things get panicky. I'll have my short from $300 ready to cover below $250.

I had a short order that opened up this morning at 270 so hopefully it works out.  I'm hoping for 230ish. It at around 245-250 Ill get a little nervous and starting winding the position down
JorgeStolfi
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January 27, 2015, 08:01:55 PM

Chinese exchanges are consistently lower than western.

Sites like bitcoinwisdom use the official currency exchange rate, pulled from some public site, to convert CNY to USD.  However, arbitragers must include currency exchange fees and other factors in their computations.  So the ratio of Chinese CNY price over Western USD price is usually different from the official currency exchange rate.
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January 27, 2015, 08:06:52 PM

California Regulator: Coinbase Exchange 'Not Regulated or Licensed'

http://www.coindesk.com/california-regulator-coinbase-exchange-regulated-licensed/
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