ChartBuddy
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March 31, 2015, 05:58:45 AM |
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hdbuck
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March 31, 2015, 06:20:33 AM |
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billyjoeallen
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March 31, 2015, 06:28:03 AM |
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More interesting than gold is the possibility of bitcoin becoming the world reserve currency. This is of course unlikely but possible due to it's global and globally accessible nature.
At present, there are ~10.5 trillion US dollars in existence (M2 money supply) which means if Bitcoin replaced dollars as world currency and world GDP remained constant, each bitcoin would be worth almost exactly $500,000 dollars (March 2015). If there is a 1% chance of bitcoin becoming the next world reserve currency, then EV is $5,000/BTC.
I think this is both way too optimistic and pessimistic. On the one hand, the probability of an experimental currency that is not even in beta yet replacing the most established currency since gold is rather lower than 1%. On the other hand, World GDP is constantly growing and bitcoin is useful for much more than just a reserve currency. It's use as a way to digitally sign documents, voting, time-stamping, micropayments, title transfer, payments, settlements, proof of holdings, etc ensure that reserve currency will be just one of many factors determining its utility, value and price. Bitcoin could conceivably become much more valuable than a half million dollars each even if it never becomes a reserve currency at all. It should also be worth noting that it may be replaced by a superior cryptocurrency and drop in value to that of a collector's item.
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ChartBuddy
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March 31, 2015, 06:58:43 AM |
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JorgeStolfi
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March 31, 2015, 07:34:09 AM |
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People who remit bitcoin from the US /UK or Canada would buy BTC at the prevailing market rates at the ATM (I assume this, maybe use one of the major exchanges as a benchmark), the moment they remit this money in BTC to folks in India or Asian countries, we do not have an atm / money exchanger who would immediately convert BTC to Fiat. Hence we put the coins up on LocalBitcoins AT A PREMIUM to market rates.
There is already a bitcoin-based remittance service for the Philippines: The sender gives them USD in the US, they use the USD to buy bitcoins at the exchanges, then sell the bitcoins in the Philippines for PHP, and give the PHP to the receiver. Not long ago they posted to /r/bitcoin calling for help, because they had run out of OTC buyers in the Philippines, and they could only sell them on the local open market BELOW the equivalent of the USD market price, hence at a loss. That is a general problem with bitcoin-based remittance: in order to sustain the local price, there must be a return channel that buys bitcoins at the destination country, with local currency, and sells them back at the exchanges for USD. Arbitragers could do that, profiting from the spread between the depressed local price an the USD market; but they would soon need to convert the USD that they get at the exchanges back into the local currency. But if the arbitragers have a way to do that and still make a profit, then a remittance service could use the same way, and undercut the bitcoin-based service... |
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billyjoeallen
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March 31, 2015, 07:52:07 AM |
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People who remit bitcoin from the US /UK or Canada would buy BTC at the prevailing market rates at the ATM (I assume this, maybe use one of the major exchanges as a benchmark), the moment they remit this money in BTC to folks in India or Asian countries, we do not have an atm / money exchanger who would immediately convert BTC to Fiat. Hence we put the coins up on LocalBitcoins AT A PREMIUM to market rates.
There is already a bitcoin-based remittance service for the Philippines: The sender gives them USD in the US, they use the USD to buy bitcoins at the exchanges, then sell the bitcoins in the Philippines for PHP, and give the PHP to the receiver. Not long ago they posted to /r/bitcoin calling for help, because they had run out of OTC buyers in the Philippines, and they could only sell them on the local open market BELOW the equivalent of the USD market price, hence at a loss. That is a general problem with bitcoin-based remittance: in order to sustain the local price, there must be a return channel that buys bitcoins at the destination country, with local currency, and sells them back at the exchanges for USD. Arbitragers could do that, profiting from the spread between the depressed local price an the USD market; but they would soon need to convert the USD that they get at the exchanges back into the local currency. But if the arbitragers have a way to do that and still make a profit, then a remittance service could use the same way, and undercut the bitcoin-based service... There would be an incentive for people like me to take a Philippine vacation and buy enough BTC at locally depressed prices to pay for the trip! I may yet do that if conditions arise. |
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calme
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March 31, 2015, 07:55:49 AM |
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yes, people like you. but no other people, only people like you.
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ChartBuddy
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March 31, 2015, 07:58:43 AM |
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macsga
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Strange, yet attractive.
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March 31, 2015, 07:59:12 AM |
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More interesting than gold is the possibility of bitcoin becoming the world reserve currency. This is of course unlikely but possible due to it's global and globally accessible nature.
At present, there are ~10.5 trillion US dollars in existence (M2 money supply) which means if Bitcoin replaced dollars as world currency and world GDP remained constant, each bitcoin would be worth almost exactly $500,000 dollars (March 2015). If there is a 1% chance of bitcoin becoming the next world reserve currency, then EV is $5,000/BTC.
I think this is both way too optimistic and pessimistic. On the one hand, the probability of an experimental currency that is not even in beta yet replacing the most established currency since gold is rather lower than 1%. On the other hand, World GDP is constantly growing and bitcoin is useful for much more than just a reserve currency. It's use as a way to digitally sign documents, voting, time-stamping, micropayments, title transfer, payments, settlements, proof of holdings, etc ensure that reserve currency will be just one of many factors determining its utility, value and price. Bitcoin could conceivably become much more valuable than a half million dollars each even if it never becomes a reserve currency at all. It should also be worth noting that it may be replaced by a superior cryptocurrency and drop in value to that of a collector's item.
It's also possible and impossible as well. The thing is, no major economy currently trusts BTC as a "reserve currency". Regulation is one thing and implementing BTC as a currency, is another. We're on the right track though; all we have to do is wait. My guess is that we'll be hovering somewhere in the middle for sometime before something "big" (ie: governmental backup) happens. If it ever will, that is... |
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billyjoeallen
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March 31, 2015, 08:01:48 AM |
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yes, people like you. but no other people, only people like you.
There's enough of us to keep the price differences from getting too far out of whack. |
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JorgeStolfi
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March 31, 2015, 08:12:21 AM |
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That is a general problem with bitcoin-based remittance: in order to sustain the local price, there must be a return channel that buys bitcoins at the destination country, with local currency, and sells them back at the exchanges for USD. Arbitragers could do that, profiting from the spread between the depressed local price an the USD market; but they would soon need to convert the USD that they get at the exchanges back into the local currency. But if the arbitragers have a way to do that and still make a profit, then a remittance service could use the same way, and undercut the bitcoin-based service...
There would be an incentive for people like me to take a Philippine vacation and buy enough BTC at locally depressed prices to pay for the trip! I may yet do that if conditions arise. You mean, doing arbitrage by physical transfer. If your trip costs 2500 USD, and the local market price is 5% lower than the USD market, you would need to buy and sell ~50'000 USD worth of bitcoin to pay for the trip. To do that you would have to exchange those 50'000 USD to PHP in the US and take the PHP with you, or take the USD and exchange them locally for PHP. Either way, apart from the cost of the trip, that currency conversion will cost you more than what it would cost for a traditional remittance service; so it would not solve the "rebittance" problem. |
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billyjoeallen
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March 31, 2015, 08:39:32 AM |
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That is a general problem with bitcoin-based remittance: in order to sustain the local price, there must be a return channel that buys bitcoins at the destination country, with local currency, and sells them back at the exchanges for USD. Arbitragers could do that, profiting from the spread between the depressed local price an the USD market; but they would soon need to convert the USD that they get at the exchanges back into the local currency. But if the arbitragers have a way to do that and still make a profit, then a remittance service could use the same way, and undercut the bitcoin-based service...
There would be an incentive for people like me to take a Philippine vacation and buy enough BTC at locally depressed prices to pay for the trip! I may yet do that if conditions arise. You mean, doing arbitrage by physical transfer. If your trip costs 2500 USD, and the local market price is 5% lower than the USD market, you would need to buy and sell ~50'000 USD worth of bitcoin to pay for the trip. To do that you would have to exchange those 50'000 USD to PHP in the US and take the PHP with you, or take the USD and exchange them locally for PHP. Either way, apart from the cost of the trip, that currency conversion will cost you more than what it would cost for a traditional remittance service; so it would not solve the "rebittance" problem. What? There is no currency conversion cost when the demand for USD is greater than the demand for local currency (which is most common). The other trader eats that cost. happily. It's true that exchanging that large of an amount is problematic, so what is much more likely is that I'd exchange a smaller amount and get a discount on my vacation rather than a free trip. It's still a good deal, all things else being equal. |
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AlexGR
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March 31, 2015, 08:47:03 AM |
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@VitalikButerin: BTW despite my increasing agreement with "blockchain tech cool, currency meh", reminder that I still believe this: http://imgur.com/6E3jMpLEven at replacing 1% of Gold, it'd be 70bn marketcap. And chances of that are severely over 5%. Actually it's a pretty good bet that it'll happen, but people in countries with hard currencies cannot really understand why that will be. For example, having the 'security' of USD or EUR (=being American or European), you tend to see BTC as irrelevant, while if your national currency is junk, you value BTC just as you would value hard-to-find-assets like gold and hard currencies. It's a concept that is very elusive to western minds / developed countries. Even the apparent "stability" and boredom that makes traders cringe for the 250$ mark, may be a +20% gain for someone living in a country where their national currency is on a declining curve during the last months. |
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ChartBuddy
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March 31, 2015, 08:58:49 AM |
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calme
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March 31, 2015, 09:20:03 AM |
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i think it's pretty safe to say that vitalik buterin is an example of what happens when an emaciated looking person decides to take amphetamines to work on a project. no visible scabs yet, though.
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ChartBuddy
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Activity: 2226
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March 31, 2015, 09:58:43 AM |
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SkyValeey
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March 31, 2015, 10:01:37 AM |
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Sorry for quoting myself. But that post is proof (for anti-AT traders) that simple AT is not bs. It was easy to see. |
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NotHatinJustTrollin
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★Bitvest.io★ Play Plinko or Invest!
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March 31, 2015, 10:04:37 AM |
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Yes finally a dump, I was starting to get bored to death
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SkyValeey
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March 31, 2015, 10:12:16 AM
Last edit: March 31, 2015, 10:25:18 AM by SkyValeey |
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The worst thing is that price is 100% manipulated by chinese exchanges.
Look at charts in various scales... It looks weird, not naturally...
Strange pumps by bullish flag, flat correction, then dump, dump, then pump...
Obviously there's some pattern (look at 4h or 6h) but it's pretty new formation at btc chart.
I think IT MUST end up by the final big dump or big pump. Personally I think it will be dump.
Btw. Price fluctuations last days are really tiring for both sides: bulls and bears. Too much confusion and chart "raping"!
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